State Implementation Plans for Federal 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 Standards San Joaquin Valley Eastern Kern County Public Meeting January 4, 2005 Fresno, Bakersfield, Modesto 1 San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District
Meeting Purpose Present information on the development of the San Joaquin Valley APCD and Kern County APCD 8-hr Ozone Attainment Demonstration Plans Brief stakeholders on federal 8-hr ozone standards, the planning process, timelines for developing plans, and opportunities for public involvement Update on 2008 PM2.5 Plans 2
3 Overview of Ozone Air Pollution
What is Ozone (O 3 )? Molecule consisting of three oxygen atoms bound together Strong oxidizing agent damages tissue and materials Forms naturally and from anthropogenic sources 4
5 Two levels of ozone in atmosphere
Ground-level O 3 Pollution Formed by complex series of chemical reactions in the atmosphere Precursors = chemicals that react to form ozone! Nitrogen Oxides (NOx)! Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) Light winds, high temperature & sunlight needed for reaction 6
Precursor Sources Societal and natural sources Most NOx comes from fuel combustion Most VOC comes from transportation, industry, consumers & natural sources 7
8 Federal Air Quality Standards
Federal Standards Primary standards protect public health Secondary standards protect welfare (prevent materials damage, protect crops and forests, etc.) Standards have a numeric value (with averaging time) and a form 9
Federal Ozone Air Quality Standards 0.12 ppm for federal 1-hour ozone 0.08 ppm for federal 8-hour ozone 1-hr standard to be revoked June 15, 2005 10
Attainment Classification EPA designates areas as attainment or nonattainment based on how measured pollutant levels compare to standards and classifies areas to reflect magnitude of nonattainment Ozone nonattainment classes: Marginal Moderate Serious Severe Extreme Nonattainment planning requirements vary with classification 11
8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas Butte County (2009-2014) Sutter Buttes (2009-2014) San Francisco Bay Area (2007) Western Nevada (2009-2014) Sacramento Metro Area (2013) Central Mountain Counties (2009-2014) Southern Mountain Counties (2009-2014) San Joaquin Valley (2013) 12 Ventura (2010) South Coast Air Basin (2021) San Diego (2009-2014) Eastern Kern (2009-2014) Antelope Valley and Western Mojave Desert (2010) Coachella Valley (2013) Imperial (2007)
Federal 8-hr Ozone Standard - San Joaquin Valley SJVAB designated nonattainment SJVAB classified as serious nonattainment!plan due in 2007!Attainment date June 15, 2013 SJVAB 8-hr attainment will likely need very significant emission reductions SJVAB may have to consider reclassification to have an achievable attainment date 13
Federal 8-hr Ozone Standard- Eastern Kern County Eastern Kern County designated nonattainment Eastern Kern County classified as basic nonattainment!plan Due 2007!Attainment Date 2009-2014 14
15 State Implementation Plans
The SIP Path to Clean Air Controls Modeling/ Transport Emissions Inventory Air Monitoring 16 Health Studies
Coordinated SIP Development Individual 8-hr SIPs fit together to form coordinated whole SJVAB & Kern County 8-hr SIPs tightly integrated with other No.Cal. 8-hr plans 14 air districts coordinating activities 17
Air Quality Agencies U. S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA): Federal agency with overall responsibility for air quality and has primary control authority over planes, trains, ships and other large mobile sources; sets national air quality standards 18 California Air Resources Board (ARB): State agency with the overall responsibility for air quality. Submits plans to EPA and has specific responsibilities for mobile and consumer sources
Air Quality Agencies (cont.) San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District (SJVUAPCD): 8 county district from San Joaquin County to Kern County with specific responsibility for stationary sources Kern County Air Pollution Control District (Kern County APCD): District for portion of Kern County not within the SJVUAPCD (Eastern Kern County), with stationary source responsibility 19
Ozone Health Effects Damages lungs Causes chest pain, coughing, shortness of breath and throat irritation Worsens respiratory diseases such as asthma Compromises the ability of the body to fight respiratory infections Increases mortality 20
Other Ozone Effects Damages plants! Crops! Landscaping! Forests Damages materials! Rubber! Plastic! Vinyl 21
Air Quality Monitoring Measures air pollution levels Characterizes and tracks changes in air quality Establishes attainment status of an air basin for different pollutants e.g., ozone and PM2.5 Status: Routine monitoring continues; special study data now being analyzed 22
23 Air Quality Monitoring: Ozone Sites 1-hour ozone standard: 0.12 ppm 8-hour ozone standard: 0.08 ppm
Days Above the Federal 8-hour Ozone Standard in San Joaquin Valley Air Basin 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 24 8-hour Ozone SJVAB 7-yr Avg SJVAB
San Joaquin Valley* Ozone Summary for 8-Hour Ozone Standard 140 100 Days Over Standard 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 75 50 25 0 % Max Concentration Over Std 25 Exceedance Days *Summary of 25 Monitors in Basin % Max Concentration Over Std.
Eastern Kern County* Ozone Summary for 8-Hour Ozone Standard 40 100 Days Over Standard 20 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 75 50 25 0 % Max Concentration Over Std 26 Exceedance Days *Mojave -Poole Street Monitor % Max Concentration Over Std.
Role of the Emissions Inventory in the SIP 27 Identify sources of pollution Identify pollutants of concern Estimate base year & forecast years Estimate reductions from control strategies Provide input to air quality modeling Status: Key improvements proposed and work is underway
San Joaquin Valley Seasonal Emissions Inventory (ROG + NOx) 1000 tons per day 800 600 400 200 0 2002 2010 28 On-Road Off-Road Stationary Areawide
San Joaquin Valley Hydrocarbon Emissions 2002 (417 tpd) 2010 (360 tpd) 100 62 165 90 58 42 171 89 29 Stationary Areawide On-Road Off-Road
San Joaquin Valley NOx Emissions 2002 (519 tpd) 2010 (398 tpd) 162 140 118 137 211 6 137 6 30 Stationary Areawide On-Road Off-Road
Eastern Kern Seasonal Emissions Inventory (ROG + NOx) tons per day 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002 2010 31 On-Road Off-Road Stationary Areawide
Eastern Kern Hydrocarbon Emissions 2002 (13 tpd) 2010 (11 tpd) 1.7 5.5 1.9 1.7 4.9 1.8 4.5 2.6 32 Stationary Areawide On-Road Off-Road
Eastern Kern NOx Emissions 2002 (38 tpd) 2010 (37 tpd) 11 20 5 8 23 8.2 33.2 Stationary Areawide On-Road Off-Road
Air Quality Modeling Predicts future year air quality based on future emissions Shows spatial benefit of control strategies Assesses impacts of upwind emission reductions Status: Near-term modeling underway Decisions: Select final episodes for modeling 34
Pollution Transport 35 Transport from upwind urban areas is a critical factor Multi-agency effort underway Analysis goals Evaluate relative contribution Impact of upwind/downwind controls Characterize frequency and strength
Control Assessment Existing program provides significant benefit Implement new commitments Identify and develop new initiatives Mobile sources (State, federal +local) Fuels/re-fueling (State) Consumer products and solvents (State and local) Stationary sources (local) Status: Develop concepts in 2006 36
Planning Milestones Update emissions inventory 2005 Placeholder modeling Summer 2005 Perform air quality modeling 2005-2006 Complete transport analysis Early 2006 Propose control concepts Summer 2006 Draft plans for public review Fall 2006 Local & State plan adoption Early 2007 Ozone plans to U.S. EPA June 2007 PM2.5 plans to U.S. EPA February 2008 37
July- Sept. Northern California 8-hr Ozone SIP Development Timeline 2004 2005 2006 2007 Oct.- Dec Jan-Mar. Apr- June July- Sept. Oct.- Dec Jan-Mar. Placeholder Episode Select Placeholder Episode(s) and Years Apr- June July- Sept. Oct.- Dec Identify Placeholder Carrying Capacities and Attainment Dates Final SIP Episode ------------------ Emission Inventories Gridded Carrying Capacity Simulations/Transport Analysis ------------------ Public Process (ARB and Districts) Jan-Mar. ---------------------------- Define Local Control Strategies Complete All Modeling Work Apr- June Community -- Meeting Community Meeting Community Meeting Community Meeting ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Technical Workshops Draft Plans Released ------------------ Plan Workshops Proposed Final Plans District Hearings --------------- 38 ARB Approval ----------- Submit Plans to U.S. EPA (June 15)
39 Particulate Matter (PM2.5)
PM2.5 Nonattainment Areas San Joaquin Valley 40 South Coast Air Basin San Diego
Health Effects from PM 41 Most vulnerable: elderly, people with heart and lung disease, children Significant association between outdoor PM and daily increases in mortality Increased hospitalizations, emergency room visits and doctor's visits when PM levels are high Asthma symptoms and bronchitis worsen with higher PM
42 #! Air Quality Monitoring: PM2.5 Sites Federal 24-hour PM2.5 standard: 65 ug/m 3 Federal annual PM2.5 standard: 15 ug/m 3
Your Participation is Important The SIP development process will provide many opportunities for the public to provide comments and help to shape the outcome Local air districts, ARB, U.S. EPA, and transportation agencies are all a part of the process and invite your participation To access more information for the San Joaquin Valley visit: www.valleyair.org To access more information for the Kern County District visit: www.kernair.org Visit the Northern California 8-hr Ozone SIP Working Group Site at: www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/ncozsips07/ncozsips07.htm 43
44 Questions/Comments