The U.S. Freight Railroad Industry: Where We Are in 2018 Dan Keen Wichita Ad Valorem Conference July 31, 2018
Topics For Today Background Current issues The future? Other \\aarfs2\communications\content INVENTORY\Photos & B- roll\intermodal\bnsf-intermodal-yard- Aerial SLIDE 2
U.S. Freight Railroad Fast Facts 7 Class I, ~593 non- Class I railroads ~138,000 miles ~30,000 locomotives ~1.6 million railcars ~4 billion gallons fuel consumed annually ~170,000 employees \\aarfs2\communications\content INVENTORY\Photos & B-roll\Rail Employees & Operations\Rail-Workers-Track \\aarfs2\communications\content INVENTORY\Photos & B-roll\Locomotives\Red-Train SLIDE 3
North American Freight Railroads SLIDE 4 BNSF CN CP CSX KCS NS UP Non Class Short Line/Regio I Multiple Owners
Class I Railroads Account for Most U.S. Rail Traffic BNSF UP CSX NS KCS CNGT SOO Revenue ($ bil) $21.1 $21.2 $11.1 $10.6 $1.3 $3.2 $1.4 Miles operated 32,401 32,122 20,813 19,467 3,393 5,873 4,836 Carloads (mil) 10.28 8.59 6.43 7.61 1.22 2.59 1.07 States 28 25 24 24 10 13 11 Employees 41,493 44,146 22,814 26,717 2,958 6,641 2,768 Avg. haul (miles) 1,144 939 583 547 451 338 482 Locomotives 8,326 8,530 3,958 3,913 645 703 471 Data are 2017. Figures are for U.S. operations only. Source: R-1 reports to the STB SLIDE 5
Railroads Help Keep Coal- Based Electricity But Non-Class I RRs Are Crucial Too SLIDE 6
General Characteristics of U.S. Freight Railroads Privately-owned, common carriers Same company usually owns the track and operates trains over it; no automatic access to another s tracks Little government funding Regulation less than once was, but still substantial What happens in one place affects others Host, but generally don t operate, passenger trains SLIDE 7
Why Freight Rail? Cost effective Safety Environmentally friendly Huge volumes SLIDE 8
Size Matters Railroads Scale Enables Efficiency Elsewhere One railcar coal = electricity for 21 households for a year. One railcar wheat = 258,000 loaves of bread. One railcar corn = 37,000 chickens or 480,000 bags of Fritos. One railcar ammonia fertilizer = 770 acres of corn. https://pixabay.com/en/chicken-farmanimal-rooster-poultry-3547113/ https://pixabay.com/en/toast- toaster-food-white-bread- 1077984/ https://www.fritolay.c om/snacks/productpage/fritos/fritosoriginal-corn-chips SLIDE 9
Railroads Help Keep Coal- Based Electricity How much did Class I railroads pay in property taxes in 2017? A. $450 million B. $665 million D, $1.31 billion C. $910 million D. $1.31 billion SLIDE 10
$1.4 $1.2 $1.0 $0.8 $0.6 $0.4 $0.2 $0.0 110% Railroad Property Taxes Exceed $1.3 Billion ($ billions) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Figures are for Class I railroads only and only include taxes based on value of real estate and personal property used in rail operations. Excludes taxes on gross receipts, franchise fees, excise taxes, and similar items. Source: Railroad R-1 reports to the STB SLIDE 11
Class I Railroad Operating Revenue ($ billions) $61.2 $47.8 $58.2 $67.2 $69.9 $72.9 $77.7 $71.7 $65.8 $70.0 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Note: net income for 2017 has been adjusted to account for tax effects from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Source: AAR SLIDE 12
Railroads Help Keep Coal- Based Electricity For the average U.S. manufacturer, capital spending is about 3% of revenue. What is it for freight RRs? A. 6% B. 9% D, 19% C. 14% \\aarfs2\communications\content INVENTORY\Photos & B-roll\Rail Employees & Operations\IMG_840 D. 19% SLIDE 13
RRs Are Far More Capital Intensive Than Other Industries 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% RRs Capital Expenditures as a % of Revenue Class I RRs Computers Paper Chemicals Nonmet. Plastics & Min. Prod. Rubber Motor Vehicles Wood Prod. Avg. All Mfrg. Petr. & Coal Prod. Sources: Census Bureau, AAR SLIDE 14
Record Recent Spending on Infrastructure & Equipment $32 $28 $24 $20 $16 $12 $8 $4 $0 ($ billions) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Capital spending Maintenance expenses Total Data are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR SLIDE 15
Today s Profits Pay For Tomorrow s Railroads As demand increases, the railroads ability to generate profits from which to finance new investments will be critical. Profits are key to increasing capacity because they provide both the incentives and the means to make new investments. Congressional Budget Office (Jan. 2006) SLIDE 16
Class I Railroad Net Income $8.1 $6.4 $9.1 ($ billions) $10.9 $11.9 $13.4 $14.4 $14.5 $13.2 $14.5 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Note: net income for 2017 has been adjusted to account for tax effects from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Source: AAR SLIDE 17
Class I Railroad Operating Ratio* 80% 78% 76% 74% 72% 70% 68% 66% 64% 62% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 *Operating expenses divided by operating revenue. Source: AAR SLIDE 18
Railroads Have Only in Recent Years Earned Their Cost of Capital Class I RR Cost of Capital vs. Return on Investment 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% RR Cost of Capital RR Return on Investment '81 '84'86 '88 '90'92 '94 '96'98 '00'02 '04 '06'08 '10'12 '14 '16 Note: In 2006, the Surface Transportation Board significantly changed the method by which it calculates the rail industry cost of capital. Source: STB SLIDE 19
Higher Rail Profitability Has Led to Higher Rail Spending $32 $28 $24 $20 $16 $12 $8 $4 $0 ($ billions) RR spending* RR net income** '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 *Capital spending + maintenance expenses. **Net income for 2017 has been adjusted to account for tax effects from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Data are current dollars and are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR SLIDE 20
Return on Equity: Freight RRs vs. Fortune 500 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Class I RRs Fortune 500 median '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 Return on equity = net profit / shareholders' equity. Source: AAR, Fortune magazine SLIDE 21
Total U.S. Rail Carloads 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 (millions) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Data do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 22
Total U.S. Rail Carloads 320,000 (average weekly originations) 300,000 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 23
U.S. Rail Intermodal Traffic 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 (millions of containers and trailers) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Data do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 24
U.S. Rail Intermodal Traffic 300,000 (average weekly originations) 280,000 260,000 240,000 220,000 200,000 180,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 25
U.S. Rail Carloads + Intermodal Traffic 29 28 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 SLIDE 26 (millions) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Data are originations and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic
Total U.S. Rail Carloads + Intermodal Units 580,000 (average weekly originations) 560,000 540,000 520,000 500,000 480,000 460,000 440,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 27
Some of the Things That Keep Railroads Busy Continually changing markets that are difficult to foresee and plan for Positive train control Reregulation Truck size and weight Customer service The economy SLIDE 28
Constantly Changing Markets Part 1 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 grain Annual Rail Carloads by Commodity: 2005-2017 (index 2005 = 100) coal sand, cr. stone chemicals steel, other metal prod. motor veh.* metallic ores* pulp & paper* food & grain mill prod. lumber & wood* intermodal *Combined U.S. + Canadian carloads Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic SLIDE 29
Constantly Changing Markets Part 2 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 grain Annual Rail Carloads by Commodity: 2005-2017 (millions) coal chemicals sand, cr. stone steel, other metal prod. motor veh. & parts* metallic ores* pulp & paper* food & grain mill prod. lumber & wood* *Combined U.S. + Canadian carloads Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic SLIDE 30
As Markets Change, Very Hard to Plan and Manage Rail Networks Different train types Resource limitations Different service requirements Need for long lead times Different locations Need for ongoing maintenance Regulatory requirements Railroads are networks SLIDE 31
Railroads Help Keep Coal- ($ billions) Based Electricity U.S. Class I RR Gross Revenue by Commodity in 2017 Total = $69.5 billion Waste & scrap $1.2 2% Petr. & coal prod. $2.9 4% Crude oil $0.7 1% Other $5.1 8% *Some intermodal is interspersed in other commodities. In total, intermodal is ~24% of revenue. Source: AAR (FCS) Food $5.8 8% Intermodal* $11.9 17% Coal $10.3 15% Grain $5.5 8% Motor veh. $5.5 8% Chemicals $10.3 15% Lumber & wood $2.0 3% Pulp & paper $2.2 3% Primary metal products Cr. stone, $2.3 sand, gravel 3% $3.7 5% SLIDE 32
U.S. Coal Production vs. Consumption Consumption Production Figures are 2017. Source: EIA SLIDE 33
Total U.S. Electricity Generation Has Stopped Growing 4,200 (million megawatthours) 4,100 4,000 3,900 3,800 3,700 3,600 SLIDE 34 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 Source: Energy Information Administration
U.S. Electricity Generation by Type of Fuel 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 Coal (million megawatthours, 2008-2017) Natural Gas 2000 2010 2017 Coal 52% 45% 30% Natural gas 16% 24% 32% Nuclear 20% 20% 20% Renewables 2% 4% 10% Hydro 7% 6% 7% Nuclear Hydro Renewables Source: Energy Information Administration SLIDE 35
U.S. Natural Gas Production 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 (trillion cubic feet) '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Energy Information Administration SLIDE 36
Average Price of Natural Gas to Utilities $10 (dollars per million BTU) $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 SLIDE 37 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: Energy Information Administration
U.S. Coal Consumption and Production Down in Recent Years 1,200 1,150 1,100 1,050 1,000 950 900 850 800 750 700 SLIDE 38 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Source: EIA Consumption (millions of tons) Production 2017 production = 34% from 2008 peak 2017 consumption = 36% from 2007 peak
U.S. Rail Carloads of Coal vs. Electricity From Coal 160 140 120 Rail coal carloads** (right scale) 140,000 120,000 100,000 100 80 60 Electricity generation from coal* (left scale) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 80,000 60,000 40,000 *3-month moving average, million megawatthours. **3-month moving average based on weekly originations. Source: EIA, AAR SLIDE 39
852 850 879 787 814 816 722 U.S. Coal Volumes Are Down Sharply (millions of tons) 694 713 622 U.S. coal tonnage in 2017 was 41% lower than in the peak year of 2008. Carloads were down 3.24 million over the same period, the equivalent of 27,000 120-car coal trains. 492 522 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Data are originated tons for Class I railroads. Source: AAR (Freight Commodity Statistics) SLIDE 40
Rapid Intermodal Growth 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 (millions) Containers Trailers '89 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 Source: AAR Weekly Railroad Traffic SLIDE 41
U.S. Rail Intermodal Traffic 290,000 280,000 (6-week moving average originations) 2018 270,000 260,000 250,000 240,000 2016 2017 (peak year) 230,000 220,000 1 4 7 101316192225283134374043464952 Week # Data do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators SLIDE 42
Coal vs. Intermodal as % of U.S. Rail Revenue 28% 26% 24% Intermodal 22% 20% 18% Coal 16% 14% '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 Data are for BNSF, CSX, KCS, NS, and UP combined. Source: company reports SLIDE 43
Why Has Intermodal Grown? Better service Huge RR investments Truck problems fuel, driver shortages, congestion Switch from other freight cars Growing economy and trade \\aarfs2\communications\content INVENTORY\Photos & B-roll\Intermodal\BNSF- Intermodal SLIDE 44
What is Positive Train Control (PTC)? Designed to stop or slow a train before certain accidents caused by human error occur: Collisions Derailments caused by excessive speed Unauthorized incursions onto track where maintenance is taking place Movement of train through a track switch left in the wrong position. SLIDE 45
Features of the PTC Mandate Mandated by 2008 rail safety bill Required for: All main lines on which regularly scheduled passenger trains travel All Class I main lines > 5 million annual GTM handling TIH materials. Installation by Dec. 31, 2018, testing until Dec. 31, 2020 SLIDE 46
What PTC Systems Must Be Able to Do Determine precise location and speed of trains. Warn train operators of potential problems (e.g., stop signal ahead). Take action if the train operator does not respond to a warning. Everything must be interoperable SLIDE 47
Largest Combined Effort in U.S. Transportation History Geo-mapping 54,000 route-miles Install technology on 17,200 locomotives Install ~28,600 wayside interface units Install technology on ~2,100 switches in nonsignaled territory ~14,500 signal replacement projects New radio system Back office systems and dispatching software Cost? $10+ billion
Significant Progress CLASS I FREIGHT RAILROAD PTC IN OPERATION AS OF DEC. 31, 2017 In PTC Operation Miles Required for PTC Operation % Complete 30,223 54,028 56% Source: AAR compilation of figures provided by individual Class I railroads
Basic Principle Behind RR Regulation Today If the U.S. is to have a viable, privately-owned freight rail system: Someone has to pay for it. The market is far superior to the government in determining who should pay. SLIDE 50
Some Rail Customers Want to Shift Course Basic complaint: railroads charge too much and railroads use of differential pricing is unfair. Proposed solution: government price controls on what railroads can charge. SLIDE 51
The Risk: A Downward Spiral Price controls / restrictions on differential pricing Revenue falls Funds available for reinvestment fall Rail network shrinks Loss of scale economies Further shrinkage & traffic diversion SLIDE 52
Truck Size and Weight Limits Today 1982: Congress decrees that trucks on Interstate Highway System can weigh no more than 80,000 pounds. 1991: Congress limits routes on which trucks with two or more trailers (longer combination vehicles, or LCVs) can travel. Limits imposed largely due to concerns about safety and the uncompensated highway damage trucks cause. \\aarfs2\communications\content INVENTORY\Photos & B-roll\Highways & Trucks\Multiple-Trucks-Highway SLIDE 53
Why Say No to Longer and Heavier Trucks? Available data don t support heavier trucks (June 2015 DOT study). Huge existing truck underpayments would increase. Would divert freight to trucks that don t pay their own way from railroads that do. More bridge damage and need for design upgrades. Sixth axle not a cure-all. https://cdn.pixabay.com/photo/2016/07/05/21/0 8/truck-1499377_1280.jpg SLIDE 54
Railroad Customer Service Everyone agrees it has to improve Bar is continuously being raised Service improvements are expensive Railroads face conflicting pressures SLIDE 55
Even In Best of Times, Planning & Managing Rail Network is Difficult Railroads are networks what happens in one area can impact operations hundreds of miles away Different train types have different characteristics and service needs (e.g., coal vs. UPS packages; freight vs. passenger, etc.) Traffic volumes not always foreseen; traffic mix changes Long lead times (2 years for a locomotive, 6-12 months for a trained engineer, up to several years for a new siding, etc.) Ongoing maintenance takes away track time Regulatory requirements SLIDE 56
30 Average Train Speed: Aug. 2017 - July 2018 (miles per hour, 3-week moving average) 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 Source: www.railroadpm.org Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul SLIDE 57
What Have Railroads Been Doing To Improve Service? Process changes Improved information technology People Locomotives and freight cars Physical plant SLIDE 58
Class I Railroad Employment 175,000 170,000 165,000 160,000 155,000 150,000 145,000 140,000 Total (left scale) Train & engine (right scale) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: STB 76,000 72,000 68,000 64,000 60,000 56,000 52,000 48,000 SLIDE 59
Recent GDP Growth 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% (% change over previous period) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: BEA trend line SLIDE 60
Consumer Confidence Has Surged 145 130 115 100 85 70 55 40 SLIDE 61 (1985 = 100) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Conference Board
Total Industrial and Manufacturing Output 108 106 (2012 = 100) Total industries* 104 Manufacturing 102 100 98 96 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 *Includes utilities and resource extraction in addition to manufacturing. Source: Federal Reserve SLIDE 62
Very Low Official Unemployment Rate 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics SLIDE 63
Index of Leading Economic Indicators 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 SLIDE 64 (2016 = 100) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: Conference Board
Weak Correlation: Services-Related GDP* vs. Total Rail Traffic** 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% (% change over previous year) Services-related GDP* correlation = 32% Total rail traffic** '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 *Imports, exports, and personal consumption of services; intellectual property; and government consumption expenditures. **Total originated U.S. carloads and intermodal units. Rail traffic excludes the U.S. operations of Canadian railroads. Source: BEA, AAR SLIDE 65
12% 8% 4% 0% -4% -8% -12% -16% Better Correlation: Goods-Related GDP* vs. Total Rail Traffic** (% change over previous year) Goods-related GDP* Total rail traffic** correlation = 90% '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 * Imports, exports, and personal consumption of goods; fixed residential investment; business investment in equipment & structures; government gross investment; and change in inventories. **Total originated U.S. carloads and intermodal units. Rail traffic excludes the U.S. operations of Canadian railroads. Source: BEA, AAR SLIDE 66
Railroads Help Keep Coal- Based (years) Electricity Length of U.S. Economic Expansions Since 1949 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1949 1954 1958 1961 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009 As of July 2018, the As of July 2018, the current current recovery rececovery is more is more than than 9 years nine years old. old. Y-axis is year recovery began. Source: National Bureau of Economic Research SLIDE 67
Railroads Help Keep Coal- Average Based Annual Electricity Growth U.S. Economic Expansions Since 1949: Q4 '49 - Q2 '53 Q2 '54 - Q3 '57 Q2 '58 - Q2 '60 Q1 '61 - Q4 '69 Q4 '70 - Q4 '73 Q1 '75 - Q1 '80 Q3 '80 - Q3 '81 Q4 '82 - Q3 '90 Q1 '91 - Q1 '01 Q4 '01 - Q4 '07 Q3 '09 - Q2'18 2.3% 2.8% 4.0% 4.0% 4.4% 4.1% 3.8% 5.4% 5.1% 5.3% 7.6% Source: National Bureau of Economic Research SLIDE 68
Railroads Help Keep Coal- What s Economists. going on? Based Electricity One said 3.2% and the other said 3.6% and wouldn t back down. www.mooselakecartoons.com SLIDE 69
People Drive the Economy https://pixabay.com/en/worker-industrialmachines-industry-860909/ https://pixabay.com/en/working-workers-construction- 1056583/ https://pixabay.com/en/computer-adultlaptop-office-woman-3365366/ https://pixabay.com/en/purchase-sale-shop-womanwithin-3090818/ https://pixabay.com/en/woman-womenoffice-work-business-2773007/ https://pixabay.com/en/architect-building-joy-planning- 1080589/ SLIDE 70
The Economy s People Problem: Part 1 21% 18% 15% 12% 9% 6% 3% 0% '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '30 2020, 2025, and 2030 are projections. Source: Census Bureau SLIDE 71
The Economy s People Problem: Part 2 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% % Change in Size of the Labor Force trend line 1980 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics SLIDE 72
The Economy s People Problem: Part 3 64% 63% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 57% 56% % of Working Age Population With a Job 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics SLIDE 73
The Economy s People Problem: Part 4 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% SLIDE 74 (5-year rolling average of annual productivity growth*) '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 *output per year. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Railroads Help Keep Coal- Based Electricity Economists are often asked to predict what the economy is going to do. But economic predictions require predicting what politicians are going to do and nothing is more unpredictable. -Thomas Sowell Photo courtesy of the Hoover Institution SLIDE 75
RRs and Foreign Trade: Summary Statistics International Trade as a Share of Rail Traffic in 2014 Rail Trade Trade % Total Share of Total Revenue ($ bil) $75.1 $26.4 35.2% Tons (millions) 1,879.4 511.0 27.2% Units (millions)* 32.2 13.4 41.6% *carloads and intermodal containers and trailers Source: AAR analysis of government and other data ~50,000 rail jobs worth over $5.5 billion in annual wages and benefits depend directly on international trade SLIDE 76
Railroads Help Keep Coal- U.S. Grain Exports Based (million tons) Electricity Corn Wheat China Total % China Total % 2013 4.0 26.3 15% 4.7 36.2 13% 2014 0.3 54.5 1% 0.6 28.0 2% 2015 0.8 49.0 2% 0.6 23.4 3% 2016 0.3 61.5 0% 1.0 26.4 4% 2017 0.9 58.1 2% 1.6 30.1 5% Soybeans Sorghum China Total % China Total % 2013 27.1 43.4 62% 0.5 2.3 22% 2014 34.0 54.6 62% 7.0 7.9 89% 2015 30.0 53.1 57% 10.0 10.8 93% 2016 39.6 63.6 62% 5.9 7.5 79% 2017 35.3 61.2 58% 5.1 6.2 82% % = China's share of total Source: USDA SLIDE 77
Long-Term Demand for Freight Transportation Will Grow Billions of Tons of Freight Transported in the U.S. 2015e 2020p 2030p 2040p 18.1 20.2 22.9 25.5 The U.S. DOT forecasts total U.S. freight movements to rise from around 18.1 billion tons in 2015 to 25.5 billion tons in 2040 a 41% increase. e estimated p projected Source: FHWA - Freight Analysis Framework, version 4.4 SLIDE 78
Assn. of American Railroads www.aar.org SLIDE 79