Markus Amann International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) Modelling Greenhouse gas Air pollution Interactions and Synergies: Recent developments of GAINS Workshop: Translating Co-benefits Research into Action in Asia IGES, Hayama, Japan; February 19-19, 213
Measures for SLCPs will not resolve all air quality problems; remaining measures will involve trade-offs with climate targets 16 UNEP /CCAC SLCP measures
Recent policy applications of GAINS in Europe (1): Scope for further improvements of health impacts of PM2.5 Loss in statistical life expectancy (months) 21 22 CLE 23 MCE Million YOLLs 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Baseline Years of life lost MTFR-EU TSAP target for 22: -47% 2 25 21 215 22 22 225 225 23 23 Baseline implies ~5 months shortening of statistical life expectancy after 22 Additional MTFR measures could save ~55 million years of life of European population Baseline MTFR-EU Baseline MTFR-EU
Recent policy applications of GAINS in Europe (2): Health gains can increase labor productivity Minutes per worker per year 12 1 8 6 4 2 Working time to pay for measures Reduced absence from work Ambition of emission control scenarios Despite significant improvements in the past: There is still scope for highly cost-effective measures in Europe, for which just the gains in labor productivity from better health exceed mitigation costs
How to achieve further AQ benefits without climate penalties? 5 1 4 Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE 9 8 Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE Baseline emission projections for the revision of the EU AQ policies Million tons SO2 3 2 1 SO 2 Decarb - MCE Million tons NOx 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 NO x MCE GHG mitigation strategies (beyond 2%) offer further scope from for SO 2 and NO x reductions 21 22 23 24 25 1.6 Baseline - CLE 1.4 Baseline - MTFR Decarb - CLE 1.2 Decarb - MCE 21 22 23 24 25 5 Baseline - CLE Baseline - MTFR 4 Decarb - CLE Decarb - MCE Million tons PM2.5 1..8.6 Million tons NH3 3 2.4.2 PM2.5 1 NH 3. 21 22 23 24 25 21 22 23 24 25
Potential indicators for climate change drivers/impacts suggested at the ECLIPSE Ad-hoc Workshop Radiative forcing [W/m2] Direct radiative forcing (i.e., without aerosol-cloud interactions) / indirect forcing global mean / by region (e.g., EMEP/South Asia/East Asia, North America, etc.) in 2/5/1 years Total aerosol load (as an indicator for potential disturbance of atmospheric processes) [Mg] compared to pre-industrial/195/reference scenario? by region all contributions added up on mass-basis Temperature change [ΔT] compared to pre-industrial/195/reference scenario? global mean/zonal/regional in 5-15 years/ in 45-55 years/ in 95-15 years Rate of temperature increase (per decade) [ T/ t] global mean/zonal/regional in 5-15 years/ in 45-55 years/ in 95-15 years Energy absorption/atmospheric forcing [?] global mean/ by region (e.g., EMEP/South Asia/East Asia, North America, etc.) in 2/5/1 years Precipitation changes (despite this is uncertain) [%] global mean/ by region (e.g., EMEP/South Asia/East Asia, North America, etc.) in 2/5/1 years BC deposition to snow/ice [g/m2] in Arctic (north of 7 degree)/alps/himalaya
New feature in GAINS: Co-benefits from air pollution controls for global Hg emissions 3 2 1 thg/yr Current air pollution control measures (APCD) will reduce global Hg emissions by 2% Co-benefits expected to grow till 25 (25%) 21 22 23 24 25 Ban on ASGM Additional air pollution controls might bring future Hg emissions below today's levels (-4% in 25) Removed through APCD Baseline emissions Maximum feasible reduction
New feature in GAINS: Co-benefits from climate policies for global Hg emissions Mitigation 3 thg/yr Avoided through climate measures Climate strategies help to stabilize global Hg emissions in the long run 2 Other (ASGM) Co-benefits for Hg reductions result from changes in the fuel mix 1 21 22 23 24 25 Waste management Processes Domestic, transport Industry combustion Power sector Hg emissions are nearly halved by 25 relative to the Baseline 7% of overall Hg reductions achieved in the power sector (coal-fired)
GAINS applications for EU policies Revision of EU air pollution policies 213 Cost-effective further emission reductions, including future climate policies EU 22 Energy and Climate Package, EU Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in 25, Communication of the European Commission on options to move beyond 2% greenhouse gas emission reductions mitigation potentials of non-co 2 gases health co-benefits from GHG mitigation policies on air pollution and cost-savings for air pollution control costs
Recent and future GAINS projects for Asia City-scale implementation of GAINS for Beijing (together with Tsinghua University) Estimating GHG mitigation potentials and costs for China and India Tackling transboundary pollution in the PRD GAINS-Korea
Other ongoing activities Global emission fields air pollutants as input for atmospheric models: SO 2, NO x, VOC, NH 3, PM2.5, BC, OC, CO, CH 4 2-25 For business-as-usual and ambitious climate policy scenarios 3 cases for air pollutant controls: No further controls after 21/current legislation/mtfr For Task Force on Hemispheric Transport (HTAP) and IPCC/SSP NO x 25 SO 2 21 PM2.5 Domestic 23 VOC solvents 25
Range of future emissions offered by emission controls
Conclusions GAINS is a well-established tool for policy analyses for air and climate strategies of the European Union Co-benefits between climate and air policies are explored on a routine basis for all EU policy proposals Co-controls of Hg as an additional dimension of co-benefits New global emission scenarios will highlight the scope and importance of further air pollution control policies to be used for global air pollution and climate studies