Jim Shortle, Penn State University June 8, 2010
Major Components PA Climate Futures Agriculture Aquatic Ecosystems/Fisheries Energy Forests Human Health Insurance Outdoor Recreation Water
Global Climate Economy in Rest of World Regional Economy
Approach Climate Futures Multi model GCM averages aeages Two IPCC emissions scenarios Sector impact studies Literature review and synthesis Multi sector dynamic model of PA economy with ih links to US and world economies
Emissions Scenarios ) (Annual High emissions A2 scenario L Low emissions B1 scenario
PA Climate Futures Projections for the state constructed using averages of outputs from 14 GCMs Multi model mean provides a credible simulation of PA s 20 th Century Climate, and is superior to any individual GCM Multi model mean is slightly too cool and wet, and slightly muted in variability on sub monthly time scales
Temperature Annual cycle of observed d(bl (blue) and modeled (green) Pennsylvania averaged mean temperature. (Dashed lines represent +/ 1 standard deviation)
Precipitation Annual cycle of observed d(bl (blue) and modeled (green) Pennsylvania averaged mean precipitation. (Dashed lines represent +/ 1 standard deviation)
Pa Very Likely to be warmer All GCM models project warming through 2100 for both emissions scenarios Warming for the next 20 years is independent of the emissions scenario Warming by the end of the century is substantially dependent on the emissions scenario A2 median projected warming about 4ºC B1 median projected warming about 2ºC
Greater Warming in Summer than Winter Means Emissions Scenario Period B2 A1 2045 2065 2.0ºC 2.5ºC 2080 2099 2.5ºC 4.5ºC Emissions Scenario Period B2 A1 2045 2065 1.5ºC 2.0ºC 2080 2099 2099 2.0ºC 3.0ºC
PA Likely to Be Wetter Less model agreement on precipitation than warming But >3/4 project increased annual precipitation through the century for both emissions scenarios Like temperature, the change in precipitation p does not vary with emissions scenario to mid Century but does beyond that A2 median projected increase in annual average precipitation about 10% by 2100
Precip Increases greater in Winter than Summer Average summer precipitation increase across all models is on the order of 0 5% during 2046 20652065 and a little greater than that during 2080 2099. Average winter precipitation increases is ~5 10% Average winter precipitation increases is 5 10% during 2046 2065 and 10 15% during 2080 2099
Some other Climate Results Longer growing seasons, and fewer frost days, but also longer dry periods soil moisture droughts a concern Greater intensity of precipitation Increased intensity but reduced frequency of tropical and extratropical systems
Water Resources Floods: Potential decrease in rain onsnow events (good news), but more summer floods and higher flow variability. Stream temperature: t Increase in stream temperature for most streams likely (e.g., bad for trout). Streams with high groundwater inflow less affected. Snow pack: Substantial decrease in snow cover extent and duration. Runoff: Overall increase, but mainly due to higher winter runoff. Decrease in summer runoff due to higher temperatures.
Water Resources Groundwater: Potential increase in recharge due to reduced frozen soil and higher winter precipitation. Soil moisture: Decrease in summer and fall soil moisture. Increased frequency of short and medium term soil moisture droughts. Water quality: Flashier runoff, urbanization and increasing water temperatures might negatively impact water quality.
Ecosystems Will Be Increasingly gystressed Wetlands and headwater streams in Pennsylvania are already compromised in their ability to provide ecosystem services Climate change will increase stresses on aquatic ecosystemsstems Increased stream temperatures Increased flow variability Impacts will be difficult to detect because of the continuation of other stressors such as development and invasive i species
Agriculture Moderate warming (1 to 3ºC) could Could increase yields of some major field crops (corn, hay, soybeans) Harm yields of cool temperature adapted fruits and vegetables (potatoes, and apples) while benefiting those suited to warmer temperatures (sweet corn) Harm American grape varieties but create opportunities for European varieties iti Increase dairy production costs but increase the attractiveness of PA to southern hog and poultry producers
Agriculture More extreme warming poses greater problems Droughts, pests could be problematic Outcomes for PA farmers depend not only on climate change in PA, but what climate change does to agricultural markets and economies elsewhere World prices Shifts in location
Forests Species composition will shift as the climate becomes less suited to northern species and more suited to southern species Northern American Beech Black Cherry Eastern Hemlock Red and Sugar Maple White Pine Southern Loblolly Shortleaf Pine Common Persimmon Red Mulberry Oaks & Hickories
Forests Like agriculture Economic productivity could increase Benefits to the industry will depend on climate change impacts elsewhere Disease, invasive species, fire risks also increase
Temperature Related Mortality Mechanism of Impact Higher summer temperatures cause an in increase in heat related deaths Higher winter temperatures cause a decrease in cold related deaths Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of impact High High Net impact unknown Heat adaptations include air conditioning, warning systems; low income assistance needed
Respiratory Disease Mechanism of Impact Higher summer temperatures cause in increased in ozone formation Higher temperatures increase formation of airborne ib particulates t Higher temperatures, higher CO2 levels and longer summer season increase prevalence of pollen and mold Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of impact High Low Low
Accidents Mechanism of Impact Increases in flood and severe rainstorms Decreases in snow and ice storms Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of impact Low
Infectious Diseases Vector Borne: Lyme, West Nile, St. Louis Encephalitis, Ehrilichiosis, Malaria Water Borne: Cryptosporidium, Giardia, Campylobacter, Salmonella Airborne: Influenza, Pneumococcus
Infectious Diseases Mechanism of Impact Higher temperatures affect range and abundance of disease carrying vectors Higher temperatures and runoff lead to increased concentration ti of water borne pathogens in surface waters Higher winter temperatures affect incidence of pneumonia and seasonal influenza Direction of Impact Level of Confidence in Direction of impact Low Medium Low
Outdoor Recreation Increased winter temperatures will shorten the season and increase the costs of downhill ski facilities the economic viability of the activity will be diminished Reduced snow cover will diminish opportunities for dispersed snow based recreation (skiing, snow Increased stream temperatures will affect the viability of wild and to some degree stocked trout populations Increased temperatures will increase the number of fishing days Longer and warmer summers will increase the demand for water based recreation
Economic Impacts Climate change has negligible impacts on overall economic activity in PA Significant ifi sectoral impacts in climate sensitive ii sectors (agriculture, energy, forests) Climate change impacts on US and world agricultural Climate change impacts on US and world agricultural and forest commodity markets important to PA
Agriculture Results Grains, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables: Climate change increases productivity and production in PA Climate change also increases productivity in other states, lowering prices received by PA farmers Net result: small changes in revenues for PA grain and oilseed farmers, revenues increase for fruit and vegetable tbl farmers
Agriculture Results (continued) Beef, dairy, poultry, eggs, and hogs: Climate change reduces PA productivity Climate change reduces productivity even more in other states Net result: climate change gives PA livestock farmers a competitive advantage relative to other states, shifting production from other states to PA
Agriculture Results (continued) Food processing: Changes in agricultural production and prices affect PA food processing sector PA food processing output increases, as some production shifts from other states to PA
Proactive State and Local Adaptation Policy Ag cultivars and practices Land use planning and Forest management building codes practices cultivated Restoration of aquatic forests with facilitated ecosystems such as regeneration streams and wetlands Institutions and policies wherever possible for water management in Expansion of public an environment in which outdoor recreation water is increasing scarce facilities and variable
New Research his Needed dto Fully Understand Impacts Climate downscaling Reduce emission scenario uncertainty Detailed sectoral modeling studies Storm risk assessment Hydrologic conditions at a small watershed scale Ability of already impacted systems to accommodate climate change Health climate environment relationships