Clean energy technologies: tracking progress and the role of digitalization Peter Janoska and George Kamiya, Energy Environment Division, IEA COP23 16 November 2017 IEA OECD/IEA 2017
The IEA works around the world to support an accelerated clean energy transitions that is enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS supported by ANALYSIS and built on DATA
How far can technology take us? GtCO 2 40 Reference Technology Scenario RTS 30 20 10 Technology area contribution to global cumulative CO 2 reductions Global CO 2 reductions by technology area 2 degrees Scenario 2DS Beyond 2 degrees Scenario B2DS Efficiency 40% 34% Efficiency 40% Renewables Renewables 35% 15% 35% Fuel switching Fuel 5% switching 5% 18% Nuclear 6% Nuclear CCS 14% 6% 1% Gt CO 2 cumulative reductions in 2060 0 200 400 0 2014 2020 2030 2040 2050 CCS 14% 32% Pushing energy technology to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 could meet the mid-point of the range of ambitions expressed in Paris.
Measuring the progress of technology for low carbon transition Technology Status today against 2DS targets On track Accelerated improvement needed Not on track Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, But many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential
Can we push up the low-carbon power deployment pace? Average capacity additions in different periods in the B2DS 2030-2060 2017-2030 Last year Last Decade 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 GW per year Fossil CCS (Incl.BECCS) Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar PV Other renewables Recent successes in solar and wind will have to be extended to all low-carbon solutions, and brought to a scale never experienced before.
gco 2 /kwh Indicators of energy system transformation : Power sector example 600 Global fleet average and new-build plants emissions intensity of power generation in IEA scenarios 500 400 300 200 Energy Efficiency 12% Electricity Networks 14% Thermal Power 7% Power Generation 23% Coal 4% Historic 2DS average 2DS new build 100 Oil & Gas 46% 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 The average carbon intensity of new power capacity needs be at around 100 grammes of CO 2 per kilowatt hour (gco 2 /kwh) in 2025 and close to zero gco 2 /kwh by 2050, requiring further steep reduction.
USD (2016) billion Measuring long term technology development: spending on R&D Global clean energy RD&D spending Top 3 IT company R&D spenders 40 30 20 10 0 Mission Innovation 2012 2015 2021 Private Public Top 3 firms Global RD&D spending plateaued at $26 billion annually, coming mostly from governments. Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Global clean energy RD&D spending needs a strong boost. coming mostly from governments.
Tap all the potential: Complementary public and private RD&D is needed Venture Capital investment breakdown for 2016 Energy efficiency (except transport) CCS Solar Wind Geothermal Bioenergy Transport Hydro and marine Nuclear Hydrogen and fuel cells Energy storage Other IEA member country spending in 2016 Public and private sector invest in different type of innovation. Global RD&D spending in efficiency, renewables, nuclear and CCS plateaued at $26 billion annually, Public spending supports technologies that are further from the market or have high development and coming mostly from governments. demonstration costs, including nuclear, CCS and ocean energy.
Drivers of digitalization: data, analytics, and connectivity 100 2008 = 100 80 60 EV batteries Utility-scale PV 40 Data storage 20 Internet bandwidth 0 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Sources: Sensors Based on BNEF (2017), Utilities, Smart Thermostats and the Connected Home Opportunity; Holdowsky et al. (2015), Inside the Internet of Things; IEA (2017), Renewables; Tracking Clean Energy Progress; World Energy Investment; Navigant Research (2017), Market data: Demand Response. Global Capacity, Sites, Spending and Revenue Forecasts. Data collection, storage, and transmission costs have declined by over 90% since 2008
Digitalization is impacting all energy demand and supply sectors Schlumberger Digital technologies can help improve safety, productivity, and efficiency of energy systems
and fundamentally transforming the energy system Pre-digital energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles,
and fundamentally transforming the energy system Pre-digital energy systems are defined by unidirectional flows and distinct roles; digital technologies enable a multi-directional and highly integrated energy system
Synergies with innovation and clean energy technologies Innovation - AI, machine learning, and digital twins in industrial design Electric vehicles - Autonomous and shared mobility: favours lower O&M costs of EVs - Smart charging and V2G: providing grid services Renewable energy - Generation and transmission: reduced costs and extended lifetimes - Integration of variable renewables - Digital tools can facilitate distributed energy resources, e.g. rooftop solar
Conclusions Early signs point to changes in energy trajectories, helped by policies and technologies, but progress is too slow Each country should define its own transition path and scale-up its RD&D and deployment support accordingly Energy metrics can help unpack what clean energy transition means and how it can be measured. Digitalization could help in the deployment of clean energy technologies Policy will play a critical role in capturing opportunities of digitalization while managing emerging risks
The IEA works around the world to support an accelerated clean energy transitions that is enabled by real-world SOLUTIONS supported by ANALYSIS and built on DATA
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GW GW The value of storage is starting to drive new solutions Globally installed non-pumped hydro electricity storage (GW) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 Globally installed electricity storage (GW) 250 200 150 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2011 2014 2016 100 50 0 2016 2020 2025 non-phs Storage Pumped Hydropower Storage Positive market and policy trends supported a year-on-year growth of over 50% for non-pumped hydro storage But near-term storage needs will remain largely answered by existing or planned pumped hydro capacity.
Number of vehicles on the road (Thousands) On-track: Electric mobility is breaking records, but policy support remains critical Global electric car fleet 2 000 Others Germany 1 500 1 000 France United Kingdom Netherlands Norway 500 Japan 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USA China The global electric car fleet passed 2 million last year, but sales growth slipped from 70% in 2015 to 40% in 2016, suggesting the boom may not last without sustained policy support
TWh TWh Solar PV and Wind are still leading the transition Electricity generation of selected renewable power generation technologies 1 200 PV 2 400 Onshore Wind 1 000 2 000 800 1 600 600 1 200 400 800 200 400 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Data Forecast Target Solar PV and onshore wind electricity generation are expected to grow by 2.5 times and by 1.7 times, respectively, over 2015-20.
The potential of clean energy technology remains under-utilised Solar PV and onshore wind Energy storage Electric vehicles Nuclear Transport Fuel economy of light-duty vehicles Energy-intensive industrial processes Lighting, appliances and building equipment More efficient coal-fired power Carbon capture and storage Building construction Transport biofuels On track Accelerated improvement needed Not on track Recent progress in some clean energy areas is promising, but many technologies still need a strong push to achieve their full potential and deliver a sustainable energy future.