The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global Gluten market
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 2 Summary The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global Gluten market contains the essential data, necessary to comprehend the current market opportunities and conditions and to assess the future prospects, covering such points as: The overall assessment of the economic environment in the world Structure of costs of gluten production and sales Volume of the gluten market Number of population and consumption of gluten per capita Volume of foreign and domestic trade of gluten Volume of production, import and export of gluten Export and import prices for gluten The survey contains actual data for 138 countries and forecast for 15 countries of the world: Australia, Austria, Belarus, Germany, India, Italy, Kazakhstan, China, the Netherlands, Russia, the USA, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Finland and France. The survey is based on the official statistics, obtained from: United Nations Statistics Division Commodity Trade Statistics Eurostat National Agencies and Compendia Index Mundi Industrial Commodity Statistics International Trade Centre Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development International Monetary Fund Apart from the official statistics, the survey also contains the results of the research done by BusinesStat: Audit of wholesale trade of gluten Survey of the gluten market experts
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 3 Table of Contents CONDITION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6 Table 1. Population by country, World, 2006-2010 (million people) ------------------------------------------ 6 Table 2. Forecast of the population by country, World, 2011-2015 (million people)---------------------- 8 Table 3. Nominal GDP by country, World, 2006-2010 (billion US dollars) --------------------------------- 10 Table 4. Forecast of the nominal GDP by country, World, 2011-2015 (billion US dollars) ------------- 12 Table 5. Purchasing power parity by country, World, 2006-2010 (national currency units for 1 US dollar) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14 Table 6. Forecast of the purchasing power parity by country of the world, 2011-2015 (national currency units for 1 US dollar) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 Table 7. Nominal GDP calculated at PPP by country, World, 2006-2010 (billion US dollars) -------- 18 Table 8. Forecast of the nominal GDP calculated at PPP by country, World, 2011-2015 (billion US dollars) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 20 Table 9. Nominal GDP per capita calculated at PPP by country, World, 2006-2010 (thousand US dollars per year) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 22 Table 10. Forecast of the nominal GDP per capita calculated at PPP by country, World, 2011-2015 (thousand US dollars per year) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 24 Table 11. Inflation at average consumer prices by country, World, 2006-2010 (% deviation to previous year) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 Table 12. Forecast of the inflation at average consumer prices by country, World, 2011-2015 (% deviation to previous year) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 28 CLASSIFICATION OF GLUTEN ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 31 ECONOMICS OF PRODUCTION OF GLUTEN --------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32 Table 13. Structure of the value added of production and sales of gluten, Russia, 2010 -------------- 32 Table 14. Structure of the value added of production and sales of gluten, the USA, 2010 ------------ 32 Table 15. Structure of the value added of production and sales of gluten, Australia, 2010 ----------- 32 Table 16. Structure of the value added of production and sales of gluten, Canada, 2010 ------------- 33 Table 17. Structure of the value added of production and sales of gluten, the EU, 2010 -------------- 33 PRODUCTION OF GLUTEN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 34 Table 18. Production of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (thousand tons; %) ------------------------------------- 34 Table 19. Forecast of the production of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (thousand tons; %) ---------------- 34 Table 20. Production of gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (tons) --------------------------------------- 35 Table 21. Forecast of the production of gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (tons) ------------------- 36 EXPORT AND IMPORT OF GLUTEN --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 37 IMPORT OF GLUTEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 38 Volume of Import of Gluten ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 38 Table 22. Volume of import of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (thousand tons; %) ---------------------------- 38 Table 23. Forecast of the volume of import of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (thousand tons; %) -------- 38
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 4 Table 24. Volume of import of gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (tons) ------------------------------- 39 Table 25. Forecast of the volume of import of gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (tons) ----------- 43 Value of Import of Gluten ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 44 Table 26. Value of import of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (million dollars; %) ------------------------------- 44 Table 27. Forecast of the value of import of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (million dollars; %) ----------- 44 Table 28. Value of import of gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (thousand dollars) ----------------- 44 Table 29. Forecast of the value of import of gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (thousand dollars) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 48 EXPORT OF GLUTEN ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 Volume of Export of Gluten ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 49 Table 30. Volume of export of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (thousand tons; %) ---------------------------- 49 Table 31. Forecast of the volume of export of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (thousand tons; %) -------- 49 Table 32. Volume of export of gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (tons) ------------------------------- 50 Table 33. Forecast of the volume of export of gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (tons) ----------- 52 Value of Export --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 53 Table 34. Value of export of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (million dollars; %) ------------------------------- 53 Table 35. Forecast of the value of export of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (million dollars; %) ----------- 53 Table 36. Value of export of gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (thousand dollars) ----------------- 53 Table 37. Forecast of the value of export of gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (thousand dollars) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 55 FOREIGN TRADE PRICES FOR GLUTEN -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 56 Average Import Price for Gluten ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 56 Table 38. Average import price for gluten, World, 2006-2010 (dollars per kilogram; %) --------------- 56 Table 39. Forecast of the average import price for gluten, World, 2011-2015 (dollars per kilogram; %)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 56 Table 40. Average import price for gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (dollars per kilogram) ----- 56 Table 41. Forecast of the average import price for gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (dollars per kilogram) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 60 Average Export Price for Gluten ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 61 Table 42. Average export price for gluten, World, 2006-2010 (dollars per kilogram; %) --------------- 61 Table 43. Forecast of the average export price for gluten, World, 2011-2015 (dollars per kilogram; %)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 61 Table 44. Average export price for gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (dollars per kilogram) ----- 61 Table 45. Forecast of the average export price for gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (dollars per kilogram) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 63 FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC TRADE OF GLUTEN ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 64 Table 46. Balance of export and import of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (thousand tons) ----------------- 64
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 5 Table 47. Forecast of the balance of export and import of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (thousand tons) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 64 Table 48. Volume of the foreign and domestic trade of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (thousand tons) - 64 Table 49. Forecast of the volume of the foreign and domestic trade of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (thousand tons) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 64 VOLUME OF THE GLUTEN MARKET -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 65 Table 50. Volume of the gluten market, World, 2006-2010 (thousand tons; %) -------------------------- 65 Table 51. Forecast of the volume of the gluten market, World, 2011-2015 (thousand tons; %) ------ 65 Table 52. Volume of the gluten market by country, World, 2006-2010 (tons) ----------------------------- 66 Table 53. Forecast of the volume of the gluten market by country, World, 2011-2015 (tons) -------- 67 CONSUMPTION OF GLUTEN ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 68 Table 54. Volume of consumption of gluten per capita, World, 2006-2010 (kilograms per year) ---- 68 Table 55. Volume of consumption of gluten per capita, World, 2011-2015 (kilograms per year) ---- 68 Table 56. Consumption of gluten per capita by country, World, 2006-2010 (kilograms per capita) - 68 Table 57. Forecast of the consumption of gluten per capita by country, World, 2011-2015 (kilograms per capita) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 69
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 31 Classification of Gluten Dry wheat gluten is a water-insoluble protein of vegetable origin, which swells during hydration, forming fibers. Gluten is one of the most important measures of the quality of flour. Content of gluten in flour is a factor, determining such characteristics of dough as elasticity and resilience when mixing with water. Addition of dry gluten can significantly improve the quality of the flour, obtained from grain with low gluten content. Gluten is also used in the meat processing industry as a functional component, which increases density and resilience and improves structure of the finished product. During the last 25-30 years the use of dry gluten has grown manifold, especially in leading countries with the developed agricultural industry. In the European countries addition of gluten to weak flour is conditioned by economy, because strong wheat is expensive and is usually imported from the USA and Canada. In the EU countries it is considered reasonable to add from 1% to 2% of dry gluten to the flour made from European breeds of wheat (its average content of dry protein is roughly 10%). Thus the physical and rheological characteristics of dough as well as the quality of bread improve, and the quality of baked bread conforms to the one of bread, prepared from breeds of wheat with protein content from 14% to 15%. Wheat gluten is added directly to flour mass before kneading. Depending on the gluten content in flour, from 0.5% to 3% of gluten is added. An average dosage of 2% increases the content of gluten in flour approximately by 4%. When adding gluten, it is also necessary to add the volume of water that is bound by gluten. With adsorption capacity of 200%, water in the volume of 200% of the used quantity of gluten is added. Use of gluten in production of bakery and flour confectionery allows: to increase the water-absorbing capacity of dough to strengthen the physical characteristics of dough to improve physicochemical and organoleptic indicators of quality of bread to increase the useful life of finished products to reduce the friability of crumb to increase the output of finished products by 2%-7% Gluten is also used in production of pasta. Gluten implements two functions in pasta production, being a plasticizer and an adhesion agent. The first characteristic of gluten allows to mould dough, the second one allows to preserve the imparted shape during cooking of products. The use of gluten gives a possibility to correct pasta characteristics of gluten with its stable quality. Thus, the question of standardizing of the main raw materials is solved. In the meat processing industry gluten is used as a functional additive component, increasing density and improving structure of the finished products. Being a water-insoluble protein, wheat gluten forms fibers during hydration, which prevents friability (especially in case of huge replacement of meat raw materials by texturized proteins).
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 44 Value of Import of Gluten Table 26. Value of import of gluten, World, 2006-2010 (million dollars; %) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Import (million dollars) 535.4 741.2 1,008.6 982.3 1,229.0 Dynamics (% deviation to previous year) - 38.5 36.1-2.6 25.1 Source: United Nations Statistics Division, BusinesStat Table 27. Forecast of the value of import of gluten, World, 2011-2015 (million dollars; %) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Import (million dollars) 1,346.7 1,466.9 1,571.0 1,677.1 1,787.0 Dynamics (% deviation to previous year) 9.6 8.9 7.1 6.8 6.6 Source: BusinesStat, Complex Analysis of Marketing Data Table 28. Value of import of gluten by country, World, 2006-2010 (thousand dollars) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Albania 225.5 127.1 177.9 278.2 347.8 Algeria 103.6 31.7 37.8 69.7 Antigua and Barbuda 0.9 Argentina 952.7 777.9 2,585.6 2,050.5 2,595.6 Aruba 40.1 Australia 5,200.6 6,626.2 38,183.4 20,366.1 27,204.6 Austria 4,472.4 5,968.5 7,696.8 8,447.9 9,896.4 Bahamas 7.6 2.7 46.6 184.6 175.2 Bahrain 21.9 36.9 91.3 Bangladesh 17.7 Barbados 43.0 0.7 13.0 3.6 7.3 Belarus 185.3 319.2 869.9 793.5 994.0 Belgium 60,187.8 72,039.2 108,146.0 64,289.2 91,624.6 Belize 1.5 55.5 Bolivia 37.1 6.5 2.9 11.1 Bosnia Herzegovina 70.9 92.6 100.5 44.8 63.0 Botswana 28.6 18.9 11.4 224.7 Brazil 6,496.5 10,408.8 11,359.9 14,043.8 17,673.8 Bulgaria 2,102.1 2,540.7 1,688.2 2,266.4 2,980.9 Burundi 0.6 Cameroon 360.3 Canada 5,805.1 8,141.3 7,972.4 5,403.3 6,471.6 Cape Verde 2.2 Chile 3,012.3 8,983.9 3,681.4 4,649.6 China 2,032.5 1,726.5 1,556.1 1,652.2 2,060.7
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 45 China, Hong Kong SAR 329.7 643.0 463.0 687.0 1,284.4 China, Macao SAR 7.6 6.6 3.1 23.9 22.2 Colombia 426.2 688.4 938.4 733.9 924.6 Costa Rica 527.7 779.0 973.5 698.6 928.6 Croatia 693.8 918.3 1,331.2 1,476.2 1,938.0 Cyprus 277.7 114.6 194.8 212.5 246.1 Czech Rep. 343.0 433.1 905.7 704.3 958.8 Cote d'ivoire 25.1 155.9 311.7 485.6 633.7 Denmark 15,105.8 27,994.1 26,319.9 6,332.7 11,036.4 Djibouti 18.3 25.2 Dominican Rep. 33.8 Ecuador 102.2 137.1 200.2 309.1 364.6 Egypt 368.6 608.2 1,827.0 2,758.8 El Salvador 297.3 380.5 582.1 513.9 678.0 Estonia 128.3 236.8 374.6 581.3 628.1 Ethiopia 3.4 2.1 2.9 Faeroe Isds 4,235.9 5,417.3 Finland 3,939.6 5,163.3 5,840.4 5,484.0 7,382.0 France 23,158.6 32,538.5 68,064.9 60,106.9 75,668.5 Gambia 1.2 Germany 12,907.0 19,838.0 29,782.0 27,737.0 36,257.2 Ghana 1,990.1 Greece 12,431.4 18,695.3 15,927.1 41,241.2 38,339.6 Grenada 25.1 6.3 Guatemala 122.6 576.3 551.3 664.0 854.2 Guinea 268.0 Guyana 17.6 12.7 125.5 31.9 38.9 Honduras 2.9 101.3 144.6 Hungary 1,175.0 2,088.0 2,729.0 3,450.3 Iceland 48.3 50.9 94.8 213.4 349.4 India 4,872.7 4,772.4 5,960.5 1,923.9 3,062.3 Indonesia 2,709.3 2,886.2 4,352.9 2,087.2 3,291.0 Ireland 2,485.1 6,237.5 2,944.6 3,364.3 5,446.4 Israel 6,204.0 7,558.0 9,359.0 9,210.0 11,863.0 Italy 12,984.0 14,722.1 19,344.3 18,095.4 23,136.8 Jamaica 186.0 272.0 345.9 401.8 422.8 Japan 21,867.7 27,867.0 36,598.2 32,085.8 33,433.3 Jordan 63.6 169.4 197.1 191.7 242.9 Kazakhstan 3.2 98.7 131.6 Kenya 4.7 8.6 6.1 67.4 Kuwait 529.8
The 2006-2015 Outlook for the Global gluten market 63 Ukraine 1.48 1.74 United Kingdom 0.88 1.14 1.12 1.22 1.42 USA 1.63 1.84 1.37 2.00 2.16 Zambia 0.11 0.36 0.82 TOTAL 0.92 1.12 1.60 1.63 1.92 Source: United Nations Statistics Division, BusinesStat Table 45. Forecast of the average export price for gluten by country, World, 2011-2015 (dollars per kilogram) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Australia 2.35 2.52 2.69 2.86 3.03 Austria 3.09 3.11 3.23 3.35 3.44 Belarus - - - - - Germany 2.18 2.32 2.45 2.64 2.83 India 1.55 1.73 1.90 2.08 2.26 Italy 2.92 3.16 3.31 3.53 3.67 Kazakhstan 1.79 2.02 2.25 2.48 2.71 China 1.63 1.83 2.04 2.18 2.34 Netherlands 2.15 2.30 2.46 2.61 2.86 Russia 1.68 1.79 1.91 2.03 2.17 USA 2.27 2.39 2.53 2.68 2.82 Uzbekistan - - - - - Ukraine 1.88 2.06 2.20 2.34 2.47 Finland 2.20 2.33 2.49 2.60 2.73 France 2.09 2.23 2.36 2.50 2.64 Other countries 1.92 2.03 2.13 2.22 2.32 TOTAL 2.09 2.24 2.39 2.54 2.69 TOP 15 2.14 2.30 2.46 2.62 2.78 Source: BusinesStat, Complex Analysis of Marketing Data