Welcome to the Expert Consultation on the Development of a Regional Sago Network for Asia and the Pacific, 20-21 March 2013 at the FAO Regional Office in Bangkok, Thailand 1
Status of Global Food Security and Future Outlook presentation at the Expert Consultation on the Development of a Regional Sago Network for Asia and the Pacific, 20-21 March 2013, Bangkok By Hiroyuki Konuma FAO Assistant Director-General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific 2
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Global food security status at present World produces more or less sufficient food to meet the demand of 7 billion world population Yet, one in eight people on the planet, 868 million people are undernourished, there has been a little changes since 1990. In Sub-Sahara Africa, one out of four people are undernourished (and continue to increase) Asia and the Pacific Region holds nearly twothirds (62 %) of the world undernourished population Problem : access to food by the poor, year round supply at an affordable price, distribution issues 4
Economic growth has not resulted in alleviating hunger in the region Asia region has achieved a remarkable economic growth in recent years with average annual GDP growth of 6-7 % in many countries in the region. However, it has not resulted in alleviating hunger. They have resulted in inequitable distribution of benefit of economic growth. Widening inequity, income disparity and social inequality in both least developed and middle income countries 5
Other Challenges that Threaten Nutrition and Well-Being Micronutrient malnutrition is affecting additional two billion people, particularly children. One in three developing country s children (171 million) under age 5 are stunted due to chronic undernutrition. More than one billion people over weight, suffering from diabetes and non-communicable diseases, and they co-exist with nearly one billion chronic hunger on the same planet New factor influencing hunger: Food price hike and volatility affected poor consumers who spend a large portion (as much as 70%) of income for food 6
Global Cereal Production Would decline by 2.0% in 2012 and not be sufficient to fully cover the expected demand/utilization in the 2012/13 marketing season As at 6 December 2012 7
As at 10 January 2013 8
Future outlook towards year 2050 Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of the growing future population which would reach 9.2 billion by 2050? 9
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 2100 World Population Trends 12000 2.50 10000 2.00 8000 6000 4000 millions 1.50 1.00 2000 0.50 0 0.00 developed NothAfrica and the Middle East South Asia percentage annual growth rate (right scale) Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America and Caribb Eastern Asia Source: UN, 2011 10
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Urbanization 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 billions 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Rural Urban Source: UN, 2011 11
Food Consumption Trends (Kcal/person/day) 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050 Industrial countries Near East-North Africa South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Latin America & Caribbean East Asia Source: FAO (Alexandratos), 2011 12
Projected Increases in Global Food Production towards 2050 to meet the demands world developing countries developed countries 24 60 56 77 170 317 2005/07-2050 (projected) 1961-2005/07 (observed) 0 100 200 300 400 percent Source: FAO(Bruinsma), 2011 13
Targeted Increases in Food Production Must be Met under Existing Constraints Stagnation of expansion of arable land Increasing scarcity of water resources Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of investment in agriculture in recent decades Various uncertainties such as future crude oil prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development. 14
Limited Scope Exists for Expansion of Arable Land in Asian Countries (only 5% of existing land can be expanded mainly in Africa and Latin America) 700 600 500 400 million ha Arable land in use, 2005/07 Additional land projected to be in use, 2050 300 200 100 0-100 Developed countries sub-saharan Africa Latin America Near East / North Africa South Asia East Asia Source: Bruinsma, 2011 15
Increased Production will Increase the Demand for Water 16
Stagnation of productivity growth: Yields need to increase over average 0.8%-1.0%/year towards 2050, compared to 1.7% in past decades 4.5 4.0 4 3.5 3.5 3.0 3 2.5 2.5 2.0 2 1.5 1.5 1.0 1 0.5 0.5 0 1961/63 2005/07 2050 0.0 1961/63-2005/07 2005/07-2050 cereals (growth % per year) cereals (tons/ha) soybeans (tons/ha) soybeans (growth % per year) Source: FAO (Bruinsma), 2011 17
Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999
Uncertainty: climate change worse case 2080 scenario: less harvested area, up to - 39% (World) and -29% (developing countries) up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC 19
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased 400 350 Number of Disasters 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
million tons Bio-fuels and other utilizations 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 other uses bio-fuel 0 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 2005-07 2030 cereals sugar oilcrops starchy roots excl rice Source: FAO )Alexandratos), 2011 21
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production, in addition to competition of use of food grains between bio-ethanol and food/feed
Source: FAO
Under these constraints, how we can produce and supply sufficient food to meet the needs of our future generation? 24
Sources of Production Growth (91% is expected to come from yield increase) 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0-20.0 world developing developed Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050 Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050 Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050 (percent) Source: FAO ( Bruinsma), 2011 25
But, Future uncertainties??? ( uncertain factors influencing future food security) Crude oil prices hike Food price volatility Continuous high post harvest losses and food waste Impact of climate changes Bio-fuel development and competition between food crops and bio-energy crops on the use of land,water, etc. Loss of biodiversity, etc. 26
Why we promote Sago? Can grow in wet land which are underutilized and not suitable for agricultural production Tolerance to soil salinity, drought and floods High starch productivity (under organized plantation, it can produce 10-15 tons of dried starch/ha/year) Low production cost of starch if compared with other crops Serve as food reserve to meet emergency food needs Promote rural household income and employment generation through household level production of starch, roofing material from leaves, cookies and sweets, mats and handicrafts, sago worms, etc.
Why we promote Sago? (contd.) Contribute to slow down the pace of global warming through its year-round carbon dioxide absorbing function Conserve fresh water swamp, create natural water reservoir and provide clean water all year round to villagers Act as a symbol for community based eco-system conservation and integrated rural development High potential for wide range of utilization of sago starch for processing at cottage industry and medium/large scale industry levels High potential for low cost ethanol production without land competition with other food crops, thereby minimizing the risk of food insecurity which might be caused by the promotion of ethanol production from food crops
Thank you 29