Intersection of Youth Livelihoods and Agriculture in Africa F. Kwame Yeboah, Assistant Professor Thomas S. Jayne, University Foundation Professor Michigan State University Keynote Presentation at the 4th Annual ReNAPRI Stakeholders Conference Cape Town, South Africa November 30, 2017
Youth bulge: Looming employment challenge [80+] [75-79] [70-74] [65-69] [60-64] [55-59] [50-54] [45-49] [40-44] [35-39] [30-34] [25-29] [20-24] [15-19] [10-14] [5-9] [0-4] Age pyramid: rural SSA, 2015 Male Female 62% < 25 years old - 10% - 8% - 6% - 4% - 2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013). 2
time#bomb? Key Questions What#can#governments#do#to#expand#emp What is the nature of the youth employment challenge? What is the role of agriculture and food system in promoting youth livelihoods? What can governments do to enhance youth livelihoods?
Nature of Youth Employment Challenge in Africa Job creation Job creation lags behind labor force growth Only 1/4 of 350 million new entrants will find formal wage jobs in SSA High labor force growth due to slow demographic transition - 3% per year in SSA Labor force growth Youth employment challenge Job readiness 11 million youth to enter labor force each year in SSA till 2035 (Losch 2016) Low educational quality Skills mismatch Soft skills is critical Low awareness and skills to spot opportunities
Agrifood system: A sector of opportunity for job creation and economic transformation
1. Growing demand for food and agricultural products Food demand to expand by 55% in SSA (World Bank, 2015) Rising reliance on imported foods SSA food import rose from US$6 billion to US$ 45 billion between 2001 and 2014 USD Billions 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 Opportunity to accelerate economic growth and job creation in import- substituting local production and marketing. 10 5 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SSA Imports from non- SSA SSA's imports from SSA Source: ReNAPRI (2017)
2. Farming is single largest employer of young people Sectoral employment shares of total jobs in FTE % of total jobs in FTE 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 54 49 49 47 43 37 38 34 36 34 23 19 15 14 9 Ghana Nigeria Rwanda Tanzania Uganda (2012/13) (2012/13)(2010/11)(2014/15)(2011/12) 47 9 44 Zambia (2012) Share of total FTE jobs o Labor force (15-64 years): 34%- 54% o Youth ( 15-24 years): 40%- 63% o Young adults (25-34 years): 25%- 49% Investment to improve productivity and profitability of farming will affect the greatest number of people and assure broad- based and inclusive economic growth Farming Off- farm AFS Non- farm Source: Yeboah and Jayne, 2017
3. Performance of agriculture will influence rate of job growth in the overall economy -2.00-1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 Annual % change in share of labor force engaged in farming Nigeria Kenya Uganda Tanzania Ghana Mali Malawi Zambia -2 0 2 4 6 8 Average annual TFP growth in agriculture(%) Rwanda Farming s employment share declining most rapidly among countries enjoying highest agricultural productivity growth Trend line Source: Yeboah and Jayne, (2017)
Non- farm labor productivity growth highest among countries with high agricultural productivity growth Av. annual labor productivity growth in non-agriculture (%) -4-2 0 2 4 6 Nigeria1 Bostwana Ethiopia Ghana Kenya1 Senegal1 Senegal Bostwana1 Ethiopia1 Tanzania1 Tanzania Mauritius1 Malawi Mauritius Nigeria Ghana1 South Africa1 South Africa Kenya Malawi1 Zambia Zambia1-2 0 2 4 Average annual agricultural total factor productivity growth (%) Trend line Source: Yeboah and Jayne, 2016
Fixed'effect'model (i) (ii) Log'lag'labor'productivity'in'agriculture' 50.133* 50.284** (52.15) (52.77) Log'lag'labor'productivity'in'non5agriculture 50.0121 50.176 (50.23) (51.89) Other&covariates Index'of'governance'(lagged) 50.0205 0.0698 (50.45) (1.06) Time'trend 50.00961*** 50.00458 (54.62) (50.96) Population'density 50.00181 50.00475 (51.51) (51.89) Road'density 5 50.000260 5 (50.21) Constant 50.519** 0.0690 (53.07) (0.20) 5 Number'of'observations 161 78 Number'of'Countries 11 10 Adjusted/Overall'R5square 0.71 0.87 Time'period' 199552011 199552011 Lagged labor productivity in agriculture is a key driver of observed decline in agriculture employment share Source: Yeboah and Jayne, 2017 ( see: http://foodsecuritypolicy.msu.edu/uploads/files/crosscountry/yeboah_and_jayne_2017-_aga_article.pdf)
What should governments do? Central plank of a comprehensive youth employment strategy: interventions to raise agricultural productivity growth Create new opportunities in farming Multiplier effects: performance of farming will influence the pace of growth in non- farm and AFS jobs Strategic policies include Invest in R&D and institutional capacity building to generate new knowledge Develop robust and effective extension systems to facilitate access to productivity enhancing technologies Improve coverage and quality of physical infrastructure (energy, road, communication) Develop youth- centered programs to make farming profitable for young people Facilitate access to productivity enhancing inputs (e.g. fertilizer), market, and resources (e.g. land, finance, labor- saving technologies) Promote mentoring by successful farmers (youth mentors)
What should governments do? Invest in education and skill development to upgrade skills of the labor force Prepare youth to spot and take advantage of new job opportunities Regular update of educational curriculum and approaches Invest in actionable research to address the data gaps on labor market issues and impact evaluation What works well and how? Strengthen youth voice on decisions concerning them
We cannot always build the future for our youth, but we can build our youth for the future Franklin D. Roosevelt
Thank you Questions?