POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS :GHANA S S EXPERIENCE PREPARED BY E.ODOTEI, NDPC

Transcription

1 POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSIS :GHANA S S EXPERIENCE PREPARED BY E.ODOTEI, NDPC 1

2 OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION BACKGROUND TO GHANA S S POVERTY REDUCTION EFFORTS OVERVIEW OF GPRS I HIGHLIGHTS OF ACHIEVEMENTS OF GPRS I KEY CONCLUSIONS FROM GPRS I OVERVIEW OF GPRS II POLICY IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT MECHANISMS POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES I. PSIA Process Overview II. Summary Table of NDPC s s Process Review III. Summary Table of PSIA results/outcomes. 2

3 BACKGROUND Since 2002 GOG has implemented the GPRS (I&II) as the national development policy framework GPRS I ( ), 2005), emphasized macroeconomic stability and poverty reduction programs and projects 3

4 BACKGROUND (cont d) With the attainment of relative macroeconomic stability and modest economic growth under GPRS I, the emphasis of GPRS II ( ) is on the implementation of growthinducing policies and programmes which have the potential to support wealth creation and sustainable poverty reduction. 4

5 What is the GPRS The GPRS is Ghana s s version of the generation of the PRSP paradigm and stands for Ghana Poverty Reduction Strategy- national agenda. It is Ghana s s response to addressing the issues of poverty and socio- economic development. 5

6 What is the GPRS (cont d)? The GPRS is a comprehensive set of policies to support growth and poverty reduction over a specified timeline. Provides a clear understanding of poverty and factors that bring about poverty 6

7 What is the GPRS? (contd( contd) Well thought-out out measures that will help maintain the prices of goods and services that we consume stable Information on actions that will result in improvement in the social and economic lives of Ghanaians 7

8 What is the GPRS? (contd( contd) Information on the cost of actions to be undertaken, who will do what and at what time. Has a well outlined plan for monitoring and evaluation of it s implementation 8

9 Why - the GPRS GPRS is to develop new and comprehensive policies (specifically targeted) in support of poverty reduction and growth to strengthen current policies and activities Based on the conviction to create wealth for the benefit of all Ghanaians 9

10 GOAL OF GPRS I TO ACHIEVE SUSTAINABLE EQUITABLE GROWTH, ACCELERATED POVERTY REDUCTION AND THE PROTECTION OF THE VULNERABLE AND EXCLUDED WITHIN A DECENTRALIZED DEMOCRATIC ENVIRONMENT 10

11 Thematic focus of GPRS I Macro- economic stability Production and Gainful Employment Human Resource Devpt & Provision of Basic Services Good Governance Special Programs for the Vulnerable & Excluded 11

12 GOAL OF GPRS II DOUBLING THE SIZE OF THE ECONOMY AND BECOMIMG A MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY WITH PER CAPITA INCOME OF AT LEAST US$1,000 WITHIN A DECADE (BY 2015) WITHIN A DECENTRALIZED, DEMOCRATIC ENVIRONMENT 12

13 STRATEGIC FRAMEWORK FOR GPRS II 1. NATIONAL GOAL: DOUBLING THE SIZE OF THE ECONOMY AND BECOMIMG A MIDDLE INCOME COUNTRY BY STRATEGIC DIRECTION: AGRICULTURE-LED GROWTH STRATEGY Agriculture to lead growth in the medium-term ( ) Industry (Agro-industrial) to lead growth in a long-term Other growth points include: Tourism, ICT, Mining Music and Films, 3. OVERALL GDP GROWTH RATE: OVER ALL GDP GROWTH IS TARGETED AT 6-8% ANNUALLY BETWEEN Agriculture to growth at about 6% 13

14 FOCUS OF GPRS II Having achieved relative macroeconomic stability and modest growth under GPRS I, the direction of GPRS II is to accelerate economic growth and poverty reduction through private sector-led wealth creation and employment-generation 14

15 POLICY INTERVENTIONS THE THEMATIC AREAS: I. PRIVATE SECTOR COMPETITIVENESS II. HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT III. GOOD GOVERNANCE AND CIVIL RESPONSIBILITY 15

16 Implementation Performance Assessment Three main mechanism: Annual monitoring through Annual Progress Report( APR); Participatory M &E ( citizens assessment); Poverty and social impact studies. 16

17 POVERTY AND SOCIAL IMPACT STUDIES Ghana in 2003 under the initiative of the World Bank and led by the National Development Planning Commission identified 16 research areas from Medium-term priorities & APR findings out of which 5 was short listed. All studies conducted were Ex-Anti assessment. 17

18 SHORT LIST OF PSIA STUDY AREAS Economic Transformation of the Agricultural sector; Tackling Vulnerability and Exclusion In Ghana; Enhancing Pro-poor Decentralization; Two energy reform Policies. 18

19 SHORT LIST OF PSIAs ( cont d) Energy Reforms cover: Life Line electricity Tariffs and the poor; The distributional impact and effects of Ghana s s Petroleum pricing policy and the poor. 19

20 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW In all 20 distinct steps were identified and employed: Identification and short listing of research/study areas; Sourcing for funding; Establishment of technical management and review Committees; 20

21 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW (cont d) Identification of in-country pool of specialists to support quality control; Development of TOR for research teams; Call for expression of interest (Eol) in line with national procurement procedures; 21

22 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW (cont d) Opening of Eol by Technical Committee in front of bidders to ensure transparency and compliance with agreed criteria; Short-listing of bids according to criteria agreed between NDPC, DPs and Technical Committee members collated and circulated; Submission of technical proposal by short- listed bidders- lead-time of about two weeks between short-listing and submission of proposals; 22

23 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW (cont d) Sensitization session with short- listed bidders to clarify- TOR, expectations of team composition, PSIA process, communications issues and clarification of milestones and deliverables; Selection of preferred bidders (teams) using agreed criteria set by NDPC and DPs. TC members given between4-5 5 days to comment; 23

24 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW (cont d) Formal presentation of Technical Bids and selection of wining bids in line with agreed criteria; Contract drawn up NDPC and funding agencies; Attachment of NDPC /technical staff to research teams to maintain institutional memory and transfer of expertise; 24

25 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW (cont d) Reporting milestone for PSIA process clearly identified and agreed- submission of concept note, interim report, preliminary findings, draft report, stakeholder consultations and the final report; Review of dissemination plan as outlined by respective research teams as part of contract; 25

26 PSIA PROCESS OVERVIEW (cont d) Workshop between PSIA team, TC and NDPC early in PSIA process to identify action plan for ensuring findings fully fed into GPRS revision process; Preparation of policy by PSIA teams in line with agreed template introduce as part of the reporting requirements; Summary of findings of all PSIAs collated in one document and fed into APR. 26

27 Steps in Current PSIA process WB initiative based on 16 research areas emerging from GPRS Workshop to prioritise PSIA themes by members of Cross Sectoral Planning Groups (CSPG). NDPC Review of PSIA Process Summary table of process review Intended changes for next round of PSIA (based on lessons learnt) Initiated and led by NDPC themes identified from Medium term GPRS priorities & APR findings Keep workshop - broaden participation Participants to include MDAs and poverty monitoring groups. What difference will it make? Ensure evidence available to fed into revision of GPRS 2005 PSIA agenda is more clearly driven by demands of GOG and a transparent baseline of expressed demand by MDAs at start of process. PSIA studies funded by individual donors through MDBS group Technical Committees (TC) set up for each PSIA to oversee PSIA process. Chaired by NDPC Not done in this current round ToRs developed by TC from draft drawn up by NDPC in Consultation via meetings and Funds for PSIA studies pooled and managed by NDPC Chair transferred to lead MDA for the PSIA & coordinated by NDPC Clear briefing by NDPC of what membership of TC will entail tasks, responsibilities and time burden Clarification of incentives for TC members Pool of Backstopping in-country specialists identified to support PSIA quality control on a call down basis and cutting across all PSIAs Specialist needs include: Social policy analyst; qualitative/quantitative research methods; macroeconomic analysis; participatory research processes Continue with process Initial ToRs drafted by NDPC/lead MDA after 1 st meeting of TC. Use agreed template for drawing up PSIA ToRs. Set up discussion group for TC to communicate between each other Enhance NDPC capacity to manage PSIA process and increase consistency between different PSIAs. Strength motivation of TC membership and tighten up quality control mechanisms of PSIA process. Supports NDPC in providing timely and focused feedback thereby enhancing quality and keeping PSIA on track. Contributes to institution-wide process of embedding NDPC into a broader network of national researchers and policy analysts. Improve consistency in approach to managing each individual PSIA process. 27 Strengthens ownership of PSIA process by improving communication between different stakeholders in PSIA process.

28 Calls for Expression of Interest (EoI) in national news papers Opening of EoIdone in front of committee to ensure transparency and compliance with agreed criteria Short-listing according to criteria agreed between NDPC and Development partners. Comments from TC members collated and circulated by NDPC. On average 2 weeks between short listing and submission of technical proposal Not done in current round. Although exposure workshop conducted by IDS for teams interested in Tackling vulnerability and Social exclusion PSIA was a useful exercise. Selection of preferred team using agreed criteria set by NDPC and development partners. Comments from Individual TC members collated and circulated by NDPC before selection meeting. TC members given on average 4-5 days to comment. Process to remain the same Process to remain the same. Process to remain the same. Criteria for selection of shortlist based on current round and revised by TC in tandem with development of ToRs. Template for assessing EOI prepared and circulated to TC. Longer lead-time for Short listed teams to develop Technical response. Consider 3 4 weeks. Public meeting for all short listed bidders in the overall PSIA process and co-ordinated by NDPC. Aims Clarification of ToRs Expectations of team composition Explanation of PSIA process Improve focus on communication of PSIA outputs at much earlier stages in life of research Clarification of milestones and deliverables Criteria revised by TC on the basis of a) lessons learnt from current round and demands of new ToRs. Modification of selection process as below. Increase time available for TC members to comment on proposals to 7 10 days. Should lead to better quality bids. Better informed bidders will lead to better quality bids. Enhance ownership of TC over PSIA process 28

29 Selection of preferred team using agreed criteria set by NDPC and development partners. Comments from Individual TC members collated and circulated by NDPC before selection meeting. TC members given on average 4-5 days to comment. Not done in Current round Contracts drawn-up by donors and NDPC. Some minor differences between contracts. Payment by meeting of output milestones not necessarily linked to Not done during current round. Different timeframes for each of the PSIAs. Some had longer research time. Satisfying HIPC triggers over-rode some consideration of quality. Criteria revised by TC on the basis of a) lessons learnt from current round and demands of new ToRs. Modification of selection process as below. Increase time available for TC members to comment on proposals to 7 10 days. Formal Presentation of Technical bids to TC Decision on who to select taken on same day. Criteria to assess presentation agreed and documented prior to presentations. Selection panel chaired by lead MDA in PSIA process. Contracts standardised between PSIAs and coordinated by NDPC. Agreed minimum standards inserted into payment schedule. At least one junior staff member of NDPC attached to a PSIA team during research process as active participant in research process Earlier lead-in time for next round of PSIAs to give TC opportunity to consider timeframe and methodological needs of individual PSIAs without compromising need to meet governmental deadline of GPRS revsion by March Enhance ownership of TC over PSIA process Should replace the production of the concept note after the team has been selected therefore freeing time to focus on research process. Support increased ownership of process by partner organisations Streamline contractual process. Setting milestones against deliverables with agreed minimum standards increases TC control over process and supports better quality. Strengthen in-house capacity to carry out evidence based policy research. Enhance capacity of NDPC to quality control and supervise policy research processes Increase likelihood that methodological lessons learnt during PSIA process are embedded within the institutional memory of NDPC and fed into subsequent research processes. Increasing time available for PSIA from average of 4 months to 6 months increases opportunities for engendering policy dialogue during life of PSIA. Timeframe to reflect both information needs 29 and deadline requirements.

30 Reporting Milestones for PSIA Process: Concept note 2 weeks after contract stated Interim report midpoint Preliminary findings Draft report Final report after stakeholder consultations Dissemination process for the PSIA process identified by the individual PSIA teams as part of contractual ToR obligations. Not done in current round. Policy briefs prepared by PSIA teams in part using agreed template. Introduced as reporting requirement as an addition to ToR Summary of findings of all PSIAs collated in one document by WB Summaries of PSIA fed into APR. More focused technical proposal to replace concept note. Involve backstopping pool of experts in commenting at different stages in the research process. Stages as before accept first milestone: Clarification of research methodology based on literature review and early stakeholder consultations together with revised plan for engendering participatory policy dialogue - 3 weeks after contract starts. Dissemenation process to be co-ordinated by NDPC and embedded in process for revising the GPRS. Focus on communication of PSIA outputs in line with overall GPRS communication strategy. Workshop between PSIA team, TC and NDPC early in PSIA process to identify action plan for ensuring findings fully fed into GPRS revision process. Chaired by lead MDA in PSIA process. Policy brief template of NDPC circulated to PSIA teams at start of Process. One policy brief summarising key policy messages and recommendations to be a reporting requirement within ToR. Other policy briefs to be identified according to need to inform policy dialogue. NDPC to consider taking lead on production. Function of NDPC to provide overall summaries of PSIA for next round of PSIAs. Should help team a)provide more focused policy messages b)engender more participatory policy dialogue between govt, civil society and private sector during research process. Support NDPC identify any issues within PSIA process before become major problems. Transfer ownership to NDPC for the outputs of the research. Strengthen linkages between PSIA and other reporting requirements of NDPC Provides a focused and systematic process for a) identifying roles and responsibilities and b) increasing motivation for using PSIA findings in policy revision. Strengthen NDPC capacity to produce in-house policy briefs. 30

31 Summary Table: Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA) in Ghana 31

32 Study/Policy Being Methods Used, Principal Conclusions Policy Implications Analyzed Data Collection and Options Energy Sector Reforms Objectives 1. Effectiveness and sustainability of the lifeline tariff in protecting the poor from recent tariff increases. 2. Partial evaluation of impact of recent tariff increases on poor electricity consumers Phase I (not meant to be nationally representative ) 1. New analysis of existing data like the GLSS4, preliminary results from CWIQ 2003, time series analysis of utility records. 2. FGDs, key informant interviews with specific types of consumers and 3. Limited quantitative survey work. The total sample size The broader picture: Only 1% of the rural poor have access to electricity. However, about 20% of those with electricity in rural areas fall under the poverty line. Electricity access has increased significantly in Ghana, jumping to cover half the population in This means although electricity prices in Ghana are lower than in neighbouring countries, it will face more constraints in the next five years in terms of keeping prices affordable for newer and more rural consumers. Short-Term: The total cost of the lifeline tariff is not significant at present (less than 1% of revenues) and therefore can serve an important purpose in the face of tariff increases over the short-term. term. The Ministry of Finance should, however, commit to making payments on this subsidy in a timely manner. Rather than spending money on better targeting the lifeline through schemes that are likely to be administratively difficult to implement, the policy focus should be on educating consumers on basic 32 conservation techniques to fall within the lifeline. Such efforts should be in a form

33 Nonetheless, analysis of utility data over the period of tariff increases failed to demonstrate any significant or generalized reaction in terms of reduced consumption- reactions one would normally see when prices become unaffordable. However, between 8% to 20% of electricity consumers exhibit some signs of vulnerability (selling assets etc to pay for electricity). Many consumers who could take advantage of the lifeline fail to do so because of lack of knowledge about the lifeline (compounded by lack of literacy among a Phase 2 of the PSIA should follow up on one specific group that has been identified as being more affected by others by tariff increases- the small commercial businesses as those mostly involved in illegal connections. Nationally representative data on incomes and electricity consumption patterns of different consumer groups (phase 2) will constitute a necessary next step to identify the potential for cross- subsidization within the electricity sector, and to identify with precision at what point electricity tariffs 33 will become unaffordable to new

34 Therefore a minimum of half the lifeline leaks to the non- poor. Compound houses are not poorer than non- compound houses and are not necessarily better of with additional or individual meters. Long-Term: In conjunction with Phase 2, it would be important to evaluate fully the cost of alternatives to full scale electricity access for the poorer, less densely populated northern areas. Vulnerability and Exclusion Objectives To expand the set of indicators on vulnerability and exclusion within the framework of the GPRS Monitoring and Evaluation. The methods used are: Analysis of statistical data sets like GLSS, CWIQ. Ghana Housing survey, Demographic and Health Surveys. Absence of clear definitions creates problems of mainstreaming. The approach to vulnerability and exclusion has been more ad hoc and lacks sectoral linkages even with poverty-focused interventions. There are also structural barriers of institutions, which are at the forefront of poverty reduction. Mainstreaming vulnerability and exclusion through a multi-sector framework. Streamlining budgetary allocations and disbursements. 34

35 Undertake review of GPRS policies and programmes, their impact on the vulnerable and excluded in managing shocks and influencing policy. For the fieldwork and qualitative data gathering, the study used interviews, FGDs, beneficiary assessments, activity calendar and observation. There was no indication of actual Sample size used. There is weakening of social networks, which has affected the potential for reducing vulnerability and exclusion and the aged are mostly at risk of falling into chronic poverty without family support. There is ignorance on the part of the vulnerable and the excluded of rights and entitlements. Effective targeting is necessary and should be given further consideration, with proper indicators on how to do this and the context within which this should take place. Different approach to policy making, which targets causes of vulnerability, must be the focus. The practice of ad hoc focus on particular groups or the symptoms of vulnerability should belong to history. Development of effective social protection policy in Ghana will help the poor and the non-poor in terms of employment generation and other financial services. 35

36 Ineffective budgetary allocations and disbursements also affect poverty reduction. There is absence of early warning systems for the allocation of resources to deal with occurred disasters. This affects the poor Policy attention to full participation of the vulnerable and the exclusion will be a big boost to social inclusion. In this case, the local government structures and civil society should be involved in a more meaningful way. greatly. Agriculture Modernization Objectives Focuses on the economic transformation of the agriculture sector in Ghana in order to provide support for the implementation Primary and secondary sources of data were used for this study. 1. The primary data collection included stakeholder interviews, questionnaires. Due to the predominance of smallholder farmers, agriculture modernization policies must target them. Policy discussion on creating a conducive atmosphere for smallholders to benefit from available business climate and development of FBOs. 36

37 To support the process of policy re- design where necessary. To assess the effects of existing agriculture policies on growth, production and poverty reduction. To assess the extent of impact of transformation on either compounding or mitigating the constraints faced by smallholders or subsistence farmers. 2. Village-based survey for livelihood analysis including wealth ranking. 3. Group interviews, process analysis, farming systems analysis and case studies questionnaires were also administered to households belonging to different wealth categories. These smallholder farmers need information on existing business avenues for enhancing their productivity. Due to the use of biologically improved varieties, there is increase production and employment. Small annual growth in output of large smallholders impacts positively on production and employment and therefore poverty reduction than higher growth in output by the commercial sector. There is need to consider the impact of different agriculture policies on different groups or categories of farm workers, in addition to pro-poor poor rather than pro-growth policies, since pro- poor policies have a wider impact on the poor and vulnerable groups than pro- growth which have minimal impact on poverty reduction. Access to information on existing facilities and information that can help smallholder farmers and reduce the level of risks ought to be given some attention. 37

38 Farmers encounter numerous risks like production, credit, labour /health, income and prices risks. In addition, the performance of the sector is negatively affected by a number of problems including weak linkages of research to practical activities. There is weak research-extension extension farmer linkage; inadequate marketing systems; processing facilities and inappropriate storage facilities; poor access to production areas. Farmers encounter numerous risks like production, credit, labour/health, income and prices risks. In addition, the performance of the sector is negatively affected by a number of problems including weak linkages of research to practical activities. Proper channels of communication or dissemination of relevant information on existing business avenues and facilities. should also be given policy consideration. These channels are those that would be understood and be easily accessed by the target group, who are the smallholder farmer. Evaluation of existing policies like those in the FASDEP,MTADP, AAGDS and the GPRS, would be helpful for further policy discussion. In addition, to stemming the trend of migration of the rural poor farmers, and increase employment of poor people in the rural areas, the policies should be well targeted and focused to remove constraints 38 of the poor farmers.

39 Farmers encounter numerous risks like production, credit, labour/health, income and prices risks. In addition, the performance of the sector is negatively affected by a number of problems including weak linkages of research to practical activities. There is weak research-extension extension farmer linkage; inadequate marketing systems; processing facilities and inappropriate storage facilities; poor access to production areas. The policies and interventions in the GPRS/FASDEP are likely to reduce some of the major constraints facing smallholder farmers, the realization of which would be determined by the implementation strategies adopted. Analysis of Ghana s Agriculture policy framework must include clearly specifies targets, policy instruments, key economic variables that include constraints and policy objectives. In the context of poverty reduction, it is important to get right the beneficiary targets of specific measures or intervention, the percentage of the poor who will benefit, their geographic and sub- sector location. This can help in becoming results-oriented with implementation of measures. There is therefore the need for inter-sectoral linkages within the agriculture sector itself for proper harnessing of resources and its 39 utilization.

40 Welfare dependent persons, and poor women are the most vulnerable in terms of indirect employment opportunities from policies directed at the commercial sector. Policy consideration for women and welfare dependent persons for other employment generation avenues because of the limitation they encounter with indirect employment opportunities from policies target at the Pro-Poor Poor Decentralization Objectives Provide an in- depth understanding of the impact of alternative policy reforms on the poor. A look at resource mobilization, management and allocation. Attention to capacity constraints of local government in the delivery of services for the enhancement of socio-economic Data methods used include Stakeholder/ beneficiary analysis, risk analysis, data on GPRS pilot study districts, policy documents, CWIQ, GLSS4, poverty map of Ghana and 2000 population and housing census. The poor have very negative perceptions about decentralization. They view decentralization as beneficial to the elite or non-poor. Unhealthy rivalry and unnecessary competition exist between institutions at the district level. commercial sector. Because of the strong implications of negative perceptions by the poor on achievement of decentralization objectives for poverty reduction targets,.there is the need for dissemination of information on the activities of the local government structures education as a key policy issue. 40

41 Ten districts were selected for the administration of the questionnaires totaling 250. Actual total sample size was not indicated in the report. Improvement in closeness of government services to the people does not mean that decentralization is pro-poor. poor. Addressing the institutional inconsistencies or dilemmas and poor conditions of service of workers of these institutions from a policy perspective will help with the success of decentralization policy. The institutional dilemmas can be addressed through changes from the dual hierarchy model of administration to the single line integrated model or system (see pp of main report for details). Building capacities of DAs and improving on their finances are areas that should attract policy attention. Effective actions are needed to ensure that pro-poor poor decentralization is taking place or being effected. This is important because, implementation of decentralization does not necessarily mean that projects or policies are going to be in the interests and for the benefits of the poor that is pro-poor. poor. 41

42 Summary and conclusion All PSIA studies have been used extensively to inform the revision of the second generation of the national agenda-gprs II and the review of related sector policies. Principal areas are: a. Food and Agriculture sector Development Policy (FASDEP) and related sectors. 42

43 Summary and conclusion (cont d) b. Principal reference for the review of all issues related to Vulnerability and Social Exclusion (V&E). viz. *V & E section of the GPRS II. *National Social Protection Strategy. c. Supporting reference for processes under the on-going decentralization. 43

44 THANK YOU!!!! 44