Maria Andrea Urrutia NRS 509 Concepts in GIS and Remote Sensing Food Security & GIS

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1 Food Security & GIS Food security affects every corner of the earth regardless of socioeconomic standing, gender, or education. Factors such as environmental conditions, infrastructure, and population may increase food insecurity issues. The access and availability of food is the core concern for food security. Studies throughout the world analyze varying degrees of food security, food desserts, and other consumption issues using GIS models. The GIS models produce comprehensive maps about the extent of food insecurity as well as probable future scenarios. By integrating GIS and food security variables such as crop availability, shelf allocation, and population density, an inclusive model can describe food security in countries. Availability Many countries worry about agricultural ramifications that lead to food insecurity such as water limitations and pesticide use on crops productions. Many relationships and software programs are developed to deal with the amount of water and soil needed to yield a predetermined crop amount, such as that of maize and sorghum (1). Using these water dependent relationships, such as historical data regarding water availability in determined areas, predictions can be placed on a yield of crops available for consumption. These predictions are necessary to make evaluations of food availability. By knowing the possible amount of food that is available, geographic areas can be targeted to prevent or alleviate food insecurity. Similarly, other agricultural techniques can later on be monitored, evaluated, and enhanced to produce the healthiest and greatest crop yield using proper GIS models and software. One specific study estimated pesticide use on potatoes throughout the world to prevent late blight disease and later evaluated the predictions with real documentation on pesticide use (2). The GIS software took into account the potato plant environments and accurately predicted use in many countries. Much like the model that takes into account the amount of water required for a crop yield, this pesticide-use model can be a guideline for users to have a productive potato season. Models like the potatopesticide-use model can be related to other crops. Together, GIS models that forecast crop yields can be used to prevent food insecurity in target regions as well as alleviate the stress of limited food availability. Access Many developing countries have found that a major source of food insecurity is limited access. Limited road access, transportation issues, market abundance, and other concerns can determine restricted food access. For over twenty years, GIS tools have been in use regarding food access, fuel availability, and food security (3). By comparing geographic areas with known food and fuel limitations, future evaluations can be made taking into account population growth rates and livestock numbers. A study in Nepal demonstrated that lack of roads prevented food availability to certain areas during Future predictions were made including a 2.9% population growth rate to determine that policy needed to

2 change so as to take into account the growing population and increase need for food. GIS was actively used to evaluate the regions with greatest food insecurity and poor road access to transport food. By using GIS models, regions can be evaluated to be at risk for high food insecurity due to access, not necessarily for lack of availability or production. Poverty Mapping Poverty mapping is used to determine food security issues in developed and developing countries alike. Through poverty mapping, GIS tools determine areas that are known as food deserts (4). A food desert is an area with poor purchase availability of foods. This is to say, a food desert is an area with few supermarkets, small stores, farmers markets, restaurants, etc., which have limited amount of shelf-space for produce and other groceries. Poverty mapping goes beyond finding food deserts. Through GIS, poverty mapping can determine vulnerable areas to food access and availability. Although this method targets areas because of socioeconomic standing, it is effective in all countries. Poverty mapping attacks at the heart of food insecurity; it determines areas that may not have proper caloric consumption because of distance from food markets. Some countries with food insecurity, such as Mexico, are not affected by access to food but rather to a complex relationship between soil, topology, and rainfall that ties into poverty maps (5). These GIS poverty maps help explain the complex relationship between food deserts, access and availability, agricultural and food policies, and geographic regions. Poverty mapping is used to varying degrees: from determining food deserts to explicitly mapping vulnerable socioeconomic areas with welfare and food needs to determining the available shelves allocated for fresh produce (6). Some studies relating to urban environments in the United States demonstrate a link between racial profiles of communities and food disparity. GIS can actively integrate the concerns raised through poverty mapping and food security. Limitations Limitations of GIS models, which deal with agricultural yields, population access and food availability, lie within the lack of change in policies. Although policy makers can use maps developed though GIS and understand models to actively deal with food security issues throughout the world, little seems to be done to prevent insecurity. GIS models are available to make scenarios of regions with future food insecurity issues as well as to map current areas with problems regarding access and availability. Many of the GIS models developed need to have a greater influence with policy. If a GIS model can accurately denote areas high at risk for food security, policy will hopefully change and become more proactive in dealing with famines, transportation, and other issues. By increasing the accuracy and resolution of GIS maps, some food security issues may be a problem of the past. Future

3 The future of GIS regarding food security lies in newer, more integrated, and more accurate models. Through modeling creative new ways to deal with food deserts, such as by including opportunity costs of distance and alternatives, poverty mapping may include sensitivity analyses to make more accurate maps. Modeling may evolve to include water balance model for all crops, including those raised in greenhouses, to deal with crop yield and availability. As satellites evolve to have greater resolution, more wavebands, and better technology, GIS maps can later interpret areas with better accuracy. As technology makes GIS more effective and food availability, access, and agricultural issues are better understood, integrated programs can make comprehensive maps. Throughout the world, future policy should actively integrate GIS models regarding food security issues. Annotated Bibliography 1. Senay, Gabriel B. and James Verdin. Characterization of yield reduction in Ethiopia using a GIS-based crop water balance model. Can. J. Remote Sensing 29.6 (2003): Water availability is known to be an essential factor for crop production. A model was produced for Ethiopia using a four-year period of crop data for 175 districts. These values were input into a GIS-system to run various scenarios with different amounts of water availability. Certain areas were known to have other water access. Predictions about specific districts can be made determining crop and water availability. Two of the main crops observed in many districts were maize and sorghum, these were seen to have a relationship in predictions. A water requirement satisfaction index (WRSI) was used to predict crop production and demonstrated different yields in the four years, noting one year had a drought season. The GIS maps demonstrated that the maize WRSI maps had a correlation with the regional and seasonal growth conditions of sorghum. Other crops such as teff, did not respond as similarly to the maize WRSI maps and would need individual analysis. By predicting the crop production with WRSI, GIS maps can be produced to illustrate areas with high food production and other areas with food insecurity issues. Availability of food resources can be determined through the GIS maps of WRSI. 2. Hijmans, R. J., G.A. Forbes, and T. S. Walker. Estimating the global severity of potato late blight with GIS-linked disease forecast models. Plant Pathology 49 (2000): Potatoes are a staple for many countries around the world, especially in relation to food security and availability. Late blight (LB) is a disease that actively affects crop production throughout the world; it is fought with spray pesticides and fungicides. A GIS-model was created using the climate, crop production, and fungicide/ pesticide sprays in a given area around the world. Through using Blitecast and Simcast, the model could calculate the amount of sprays to combat

4 LB. The predicted sprays were compared to the actual observed values, in many cases the predicted values were in an accurate range of the observed sprays. In a few countries the predicted values were higher than those observed, such as in Africa were little use of fungicides has been used in the past. Some countries such as Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Indonesia reported higher values of sprays than those recommended by the model, which can mean that these countries are using more fungicides than necessary to combat LB or should consider more effective planting methods. By using this GIS-model the amount of pesticides/fungicides can be predicted for different countries along with potato production. By determining the potato production in the country, various scenarios can be run to analyze the food security, environmental and health points of view related to the production. 3. Schreier, Hans et al. Food, Feed, and Fuelwood Resources of Nepal: A GIS Evaluation. Environmental Management 15.6 (1991): Nepal is ranked as one of the countries with the lowest GNP, and over the years has demonstrated concern with the amount of available food, feed, and fuelwood for their population. The object of the study was divided in four points: (1) to determine deficits/ surpluses of food, feed, and fuelwood throughout the various districts, (2) to perform sensitivity analysis on the variables of the model, (3) to predict a resource situation in 2000 using yields and uses from 1981 and increasing population and livestock numbers annually, (4) determine the possible level of change needed in year 2000 if the yields and uses of 1981 are kept with an annual increase in population and livestock rates. Through relevant aerial photographs of the 75 districts of the country, a spreadsheet database was created with the land uses and forest categories to determine the amounts of food, feed, and fuelwood used. Through different calculations of feed, fuelwood, and food values, an estimated 2000 cal/day consumption, and a population growth of 2.9%, the amounts of food, feed, and fuelwood were estimated using various scenarios. The base run demonstrated a 27% food deficit in 2000, a 54% feed deficit, and a 6% fuelwood surplus. The deficit in feed was the highest for each scenario, which could with time affect food deficits as well. The deficit eliminating scenarios required a drastic drop in population growth from 2.9% to 1.2%. The information was put into a GIS-system to evaluate the specific counties have food deficits, as well as the severity of the future food deficits. This GIS-based model can affect policy directly by demonstrating possible future scenarios and key areas of concern regarding food deficits. GIS graphically showed that many of the deficits were linked to areas with poor road access for transportation of goods. 4. Raja, Samina, Changxing Ma, and Pavan Yadav. Beyond Food Deserts: Measuring and Mapping Racial Disparities in Neighborhood Food Environment. Journal of Planning Education and Research 27 (2008):

5 Food deserts are a new term coined about food security for many developed countries. Food availability and access are determined spatially by distribution and distance from census tracks of different ethnicities. The food destinations of 897 census blocks in Erie County, NY were analyzed in relation to a five-minute walking, biking, or driving distance using GIS software. The model used to into account the races of the census block groups as: 16 percent black, 9 percent mixed-race, and 75 percent predominantly white. Food destinations were described as supermarkets, grocery stores, convenience, farmers markets, restaurants, etc. Although certain areas reflected racial disparity in food access, the answer is not as direct considering the opportunity cost to drive to a supermarket (or other food destination) may be lower for some people. The GIS model did show that many times predominately white areas had healthier food destination options, were as black census tracks had convenience stores and other grocery stores that did not carry as many fresh produce and whole grains. The racial disparity relating to food security in this particular study was quite complex. Different food destinations (supermarkets, meat markets, etc) at different distances (5 minutes walking, biking, or driving) had different relationships depending the race of the census track. The idea of food deserts relates the availability and access of healthy food in developed countries to food insecurity issues. 5. Hyman, Glenn, Carlos Larrea, Andrew Farrow. Methods, results and policy implications of poverty and food security mapping assessments. Food Policy 30 (2005): Poverty mapping allows for a spatial distribution and possible explanation for socio-economic trends in different locations throughout the world. Understanding the nature of poverty for certain societies can tie into food security issues of availability and access. This study focused on three major concerns: (1) using poverty mapping to make an explicit approach using geographic, agricultural and environmental issues of food security and welfare at fine resolutions over large areas, (2) understanding the importance of spatial processes and patterns relating poverty and food security, and (3) understanding the implications of poverty maps for agricultural and food policies. (455) Using GIS, poverty mapping and indicators correlates into national- or broad-scale poverty assessments. (455) Food security issues relating to poverty in certain countries like Mexico were found to not deal with access as so much to topology, soil, rainfall, and evaporation rates. The maps produced through this integrated approach allow for analyzing small rural areas that are of high concern for food security as well as nationwide planning to meet nutritional requirements for their citizens. Accessibility to food in many cases is the most important factor dealing with both poverty and food security. Environmental concerns, such as soil fertility, can also be interpreted through the GIS wide-area poverty assessments. The main stakeholders, those in poverty with food security issues, should be involved with this analysis as policy changes may be made for their advantage, including distribution of food goods, soils, and water.

6 6. Bodor, J Nicholas et al. Neighbourhood fruit and vegetable availability and consumption: the role of small food stores in an urban environment. Public Health Nutrition 11.4 (2007): A small part of New Orleans was surveyed on fruit and vegetable consumption. Using GIS models, food store access along with shelf space of produce was related to the 111 households in the survey. A poverty index was determined for those in the area, anything between 1 PIR 1.85 was determined as receiving food assistance from the government. The availability of cars as well as the race of the household was taken into account. Various small store distances/locations and a supermarket (outside of the neighborhood area) were used in the study to analyze the amount of fresh produce available for the households. A third of the households surveyed were below the poverty line with an extra 19% also receiving food assistance from the government. The available fresh produce in the small stores was significantly less than that of supermarkets. In supermarkets, 70 percent of vegetable and fruit shelf space was allocated to fresh produce while only 32 percent of small stores allocated shelf space for fresh produce. This study links the lack availability of fresh produce to areas of lower income even though access to supermarkets is available. The socioeconomic levels can be related to the amount of consumption of fresh produce. The increase of fruits and vegetables in this survey could be related to the type of questions asked, causing an overall higher consumption of fruits and vegetables in this area than that observed throughout the nation. 7. Morton, Lois Wright and Troy C. Blanchard. Starved for Access: Life in Rural America s Food Deserts. Rural Sociological Society 1.4 (2007) This article is very direct in describing food deserts in America. A clear understanding of the sociological profile of those affected by food deserts (such as elderly and less educated) is outlined in this volume. The links between community options, deserts, and policy are denoted through practical applications involving local food producers, vendors, and consumers. Clear maps describe percentage of U.S. population lacking in access to supermarkets and the most significant food deserts in the nation. GIS can properly denote the counties in each state that have a nearby market and the population surrounding the area. Data produced in this study discussed how of all U.S. counties, 418 are food deserts, with nearly 98% located in nonmetropolitan areas. (3, Morton) Various legislations are discussed at the end of the article dealing with possible nutrition programs and transportation services.