Africa RiskView END OF SEASON REPORT MALI (2016) Highlights: Rainfall. Drought

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1 This Africa RiskView End of Season Report is a publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). The report discusses Africa RiskView s estimates of rainfall, drought and population affected, comparing them to information from the ground and from external sources. It also provides the basis of a validation exercise of Africa RiskView, which is conducted in each country at the end of an insured season. This exercise aims at reviewing the performance of the model and ensuring that the country s drought risk is accurately reproduced by Africa RiskView for drought monitoring and insurance coverage. Highlights: Rainfall: Overall good performance of the 2016 rainy season, with normal to above normal cumulative rainfall totals at national and regional level. However, localised areas in central and northeastern Mali experienced erratic rainfall and an early end of the season with little to no rainfall in October Drought: The end-of-season WRSI values were in line with the benchmark selected by the country in most of Mali, with the exception of some areas in the central and north-eastern parts of the country, where below benchmark WRSI values prevailed at the end of the 2016 agricultural season. Rainfall The rainy season in Mali lasts from May to October. During the 2016 season, the cumulative rainfall totals varied significantly across the country, in line with the expected geographical variations. In south-western Mali, particularly in Sikasso and the southern parts of Kayes and Koulikoro regions, over 1,000 mm of rain were received (and up to over 1,200 mm in some parts of Sikasso). Further north, in the northern parts of Kayes and Koulikoro, rainfall was generally between 600 and 1,000 mm, while it was slightly lower ( mm) in central Mali, namely in Segou, Mopti and north-western Koulikoro. In the north-eastern parts of the country (southern Tombouctou and Gao), drier conditions prevailed, with cumulative rainfall totals between 200 and 500 mm. Compared to the long-term average ( ), satellite rainfall estimates suggest that normal to above normal rains were received throughout the country. In parts of south-western Mali (Sikasso), up to over 150% of the long-term average was received. Similarly, Gao and southern Tomboctou regions in north-eastern Mali recorded 150% to over 200% of average rainfall during the 2016 season. Regarding the spatial and temporal distribution of the rains, an analysis of dekadal (10-day) rainfall estimates suggests that at Affected Populations: Africa RiskView estimates that around 530,000 people were affected by drought conditions in localised areas of central and north-eastern Mali; this figure remains below the modelled historical average of around 1.1 million people. ARC Risk Pool: Due to the overall good performance of the season and despite localised drought impacts in central and north-eastern Mali, the trigger for a payout from ARC Ltd was not reached at the end of the 2016 agricultural season. national and regional level, the season started on time in May, and progressed with normal to above normal rainfall until the end of the season in October. In parts of central (Segou) and northeastern Mali (Gao, Tombouctou), the season ended earlier than normal, with below normal rainfall in October. At département (admin 2) level, the rainfall data highlights some localised issues in central and north-eastern Mali. In Yorosso (northern Sikasso), San and Tominan (south-eastern Segou), some rainfall deficits were recorded during the second half of the season. Similarly, Gourma- Rharous and Tomboctou in eastern Tombouctou region experienced erratic rainfall and an early end of the season with little to no rain in October Drought The in-country Technical Working Group (TWG) customised Africa RiskView to model the impact of drought on maize, an increasingly important staple crops in Mali. The planting window, during which farmers usually plant their crops, lasts from late May to early July in southern Mali, early June to mid-july in the central parts of the country and from mid-june to late July in the north. The TWG chose to use an average aggregation method for the WRSI, which means Africa RiskView uses the average end-of-season WRSI value

2 Cumulative rainfall in mm, 21 May-31 Oct 2016, Mali (ARC2) Cumulative rainfall in % of average, 21 May-31 Oct 2016, Mali (ARC2) End-of-season WRSI, Mali, 2016 agricultural season resulting from all possible planting opportunities for each pixel. According to Africa RiskView, the water requirements of the reference crop (maize) were fully satisfied in parts of southwestern Mali, particularly in Sikasso, northern and southern Kayes and southern and western Koulikoro. In the central parts of the country (central Kayes, eastern Koulikoro, Mopti and Segou), average WRSI values (80-95) prevailed, based on FEWS NET s WRSI classification, with pockets of mediocre WRSI values (60-80) in northern Segou and northern Mopti. Africa RiskView estimates that the maize water requirements were not satisfied in the north -eastern parts of the country (southern Tomboctou and Gao). Compared to the benchmark selected by the TWG to model normal conditions in the country, which was defined as the previous year, the season performed normally in most of Mali. However, End-of-season WRSI compared to 2015, Mali, 2016 agricultural season pockets of below benchmark WRSI values can be found in parts of central Mali, particularly in southern Segou, eastern koulikoro and north-western Sikasso, as well as in most agricultural areas in Tomboctou. Above benchmark values prevailed in most of Gao. It is important to note that the 2015 season performed well in most of Mali, according to Africa RiskView and reports from the ground, and therefore the benchmark is higher than average WRSI conditions calculated over several past years. Africa RiskView s WRSI calculations are slightly than FEWS NET s regional WRSI model, which indicates that average to very good WRSI values prevailed at the end of October in most of Mali. According to FEWS NET, the WRSI was in line with or better than the median year, with the exception of localised areas in central Mali. FAO s Agricultural Stress Index (ASI), a composite indicator

3 based on vegetation and temperature information, also suggests that the conditions for crop development were positive throughout most of the 2016 agricultural season. Information on agricultural production used for the 2016 Cadre Harmonisé exercise suggests that the 2016 agricultural season experienced a normal to above normal performance. Nonetheless, localised production shortfalls were reports due to poor rains, floods and other factors (pests etc.). Overall, an 11% increase in crop production is expected compared to 2015, at the national level. Estimated population affected by drought, Mali, 2016 agricultural season Affected Populations Based on the customisation of Africa RiskView, around 4.2 million people are vulnerable to drought in Mali. Of these, the model estimates that nearly 530,000 people are affected by drought conditions at the end of the 2016 season. These are located mostly in central Mali, namely in Koutiala (95,000 people) and Yorosso (45,000) départements in north-west Sikasso, Barouéli (10,000), Bla (48,000), San (145,000) and Tominian (92,000) in southern Segou, Koulikoro département in south-eastern Koulikoro region (5,000), as well as in Gourma-Rharous (5,000) and Tombouctou (85,000) départements in Tombouctou region in the north-east. Compared to historical drought years modelled by Africa RiskView, it appears that the number of people affected in 2016 remains below the modelled historical average of around 1.1 million people. Mali s major droughts occurred in the 1980s and 1990s, and more recently in 2002, 2004, 2011 and , found that 180,000 people were severely food insecure (Phase 3 or worse) at the time of the analysis. This figure was projected to increase to around 500,000 people for the peak lean season. The most affected areas were found to be the northeastern parts of Mali (Tombouctou, Gao and Kidal regions), due to the impact of civil insecurity in these regions. In some parts of central and south-western Mali, localised dry conditions, floods and other factors were cited as main factors affecting food insecurity. ARC Risk Pool Estimated population affected by drought, Mali, Mali has been a member of the ARC Risk Pool since 2015/16. During the current pool, the country did not receive a payout, given that the attachment level selected by the Government of Mali (the equivalent of around 1.2 million people drought affected people as modelled by Africa RiskView) was not reached. The in-country Technical Working Group with support from the ARC Secretariat is currently reviewing the customisation of Africa RiskView in view of Mali s participation in the 2017/18 ARC Risk Pool. The exercise aims at reviewing the drought index parameters used by the model, as well as updating input data such as the vulnerability profile and poverty information used by Africa RiskView. Potential improvements to the model will help ensure that drought risks are accurately reproduced for drought monitoring and insurance coverage and that the modelling continues to evolve as new information is reported and gathered. The 2016 Cadre Harmonisé exercises, concluded in November

4 21 May-31 Oct 16, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Kayes, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Koulikoro, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Sikasso, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Segou, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Mopti, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Tombouctou, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Gao, Mali 21 May-31 Oct 16, Kidal, Mali

5 21 May-31 Oct 16, Barouéli, Segou 21 May-31 Oct 16, Bla, Segou 21 May-31 Oct 16, Gourma-Rharous, Tombouctou 21 May-31 Oct 16, Koulikoro, Koulikoro 21 May-31 Oct 16, Koutiala, Sikasso 21 May-31 Oct 16, San, Segou 21 May-31 Oct 16, Tombouctou, Tombouctou 21 May-31 Oct 16, Tominian, Segou 21 May-31 Oct 16, Yorosso, Sikasso

6 About ARC: The African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a specialised agency of the African Union designed to improve the capacity of AU Member States to manage natural disaster risk, adapt to climate change and protect food insecure populations. The Africa RiskView software is the technical engine of ARC. It uses satellite-based rainfall information to estimate the costs of responding to a drought, which triggers a corresponding insurance payout. The ARC Insurance Company Limited is the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent through issuing insurance policies to participating countries. Note on Africa RiskView s Methodology: Rainfall: Africa RiskView uses various satellite rainfall datasets to track the progression of rainy seasons in Africa. Countries intending to participate in the ARC Risk Pool are required to customise the rainfall component by selecting the dataset which corresponds the best to the actual rainfall measured on the ground. Drought: Africa RiskView uses the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) as an indicator for drought. The WRSI is an index developed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), which, based on satellite rainfall estimates, calculates whether a particular crop is getting the amount of water it needs at different stages of its development. To maximise the accuracy of Africa RiskView, countries intending to take out insurance customise the software s parameters to reflect the realities on the ground. Affected Populations: Based on the WRSI calculations, Africa RiskView estimates the number of people potentially affected by drought for each country participating in the insurance pool. As part of the in-country customisation process, vulnerability profiles are developed at the sub-national level for each country, which define the potential impact of a drought on the population living in a specific area. Response Costs: In a fourth and final step, Africa RiskView converts the numbers of affected people into response costs. For countries participating in the insurance pool these national response costs are the underlying basis of the insurance policies. Payouts will be triggered from the ARC Insurance Company Limited to countries where the estimated response cost at the end of the season exceeds a pre-defined threshold specified in the insurance contracts. Disclaimer: The data and information contained in this report have been developed for the purposes of, and using the methodology of, Afri ca RiskView and the African Risk Capacity Group. The data in this report is provided to the public for information purposes only, and neither the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents make any representation or warranty regarding the fitness of the data and information for any particular purpose. In no event shall the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents be held liable with respect to any subject matter presented here. Payouts under insurance policies issued by ARC Insurance Company Limited are calculated using a stand-alone version of Africa RiskView, the results of which can differ from those presented here.