SYRIA MARKET MONITORING EXERCISE

Transcription

1 SYRIA MARKET MONITORING EXERCISE Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group Snapshot: 18- June 018 INTRODUCTION KEY DEVELOPMENTS To inform humanitarian cash programming, REACH and the Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR-TWG) conduct ly market monitoring throughout Syria to assess the availability and prices of 3 basic commodities that are typically sold in markets and consumed by average Syrian households, including food and non-food items, water, fuel, and cellphone data. Of these, 18 items comprise the Survival Minimum Expenditure Basket (), see below, which represents the minimum culturally adjusted items required to support a -person household for a. Data was collected this by ACTED, CARE, Shafak, Concern, GOAL, Ihsan, IRC, Mercy Corps, People in Need, REACH, Solidarités International, Violet, and Watan. Datasets are available on the REACH Resource Centre, the Humanitarian Data Ex, and are also distributed through partners across the humanitarian community. SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET () CONTENTS Item Food Items Bread Bulgur Chicken Eggs Fresh vegetables Ghee/vegetable oil Red lentils Rice Salt Sugar Tomato paste Hygiene Bathing soap items Laundry/dish soap Sanitary pads Toothpaste Fuel Cooking fuel* Water Water trucking Telecom Smartphone data Other Float (other costs)** Quantity 37 kg 15 kg kg kg 1 kg 7 kg/l 15 kg 19 kg 1 kg 5 kg kg 1 bars 3 kg packs of 10 g 5 L L 1 GB 7.5% total value * Kerosene in northern Syria; LP Gas in southern Syria ** Float only applied to observations where prices of all contents could be collected WoS: Dollar ex rate fluctuations Northwest: Harvest leads to price decreases The US Dollar to Syrian Pound ex rate fell for the third consecutive in the northwest and south of Syria. However, the ex rate has increased by % in northeast Syria. While the Pound has not strengthened to the degree seen in December 017, the median cost for the northwest and south has continued to decrease; for the northeast, where the ex rate increased, the median complete cost has increased by.%. During harvest season, vegetable prices are expected to decrease; following this trend the median vegetable cost has decreased by 1.3%. However, the decrease in price was not as high as expected due to limited rainfall and poor growing conditions, which led to higher production costs. WoS: Eid al-fitr prices Eid al-fitr occurred during the middle of May and is the most likely reason for fluctuation in some prices. Food items in particular varied between sub-districts, as some items were in higher demand for the holiday. Northeast: New industrial bakery opens Local authorities opened a bakery facility capable of producing 10 tons of bread per day in the town of located in northeast Governorate. This facility will increase the availability of bread for surrounding under-served communities, which have previously relied on home production or have had to travel long distances to purchase bread. ASSESSED AREAS AND COVERAGE Northwest ALEPPO LATTAKIA HOMS QUNEITRA South DAR'A AS-SWEIDA Transport fuel has increased by an average of 7% since May 018. Prices are expected to continue to increase during the southern offensive, as road closures and security incidents lead to communities having limited access to transport fuel supplies. South: Coverage s While coverage remained consistent in June, in the future there may be coverage s due to the offensive in the south. For a regular update on markets in the south REACH is conducting rapid market assessments. 5,00 SYP (10.97 USD) NORTHWEST SYRIA - IDLEB, LATTAKIA, & WESTERN ALEPPO GOVERNORATES 59, 18SYP (11.87 USD) NORTHEAST SYRIA -, AL-RAQQA, & EASTERN ALEPPO GOVERNORATES, 588 SYP (15.95 USD) SOUTH SYRIA - DAR A & QUNEITRA GOVERNORATES MEDIAN COSTS, BY MONTH & DEIR-EZ-ZOR TARTOUS RURAL DAMASCUS South: Fuel prices increase HAMA DAMASCUS The median regional cost saw a slight decrease between May and June, decreasing by approximately 1,177 SYP (-1.8%). However, this is expected to in the coming s. MEDIAN COST IN SYP (USD), BY Northeast IDLEB South: prices decrease South 75 COVERAGE 117 COMMUNITIES 3 9 GOVERNORATES Assessed sub-district with complete data collection, no water trucking* Assessed sub-district with data collection missing items (see regional sections) Assessed sub-district with complete data collection, no water trucking* not assessed *Water trucking not used in sub-district 70 Northwest 5 0 Northeast

2 NORTHEAST SYRIA: KEY DEVELOPMENTS AND OVERVIEW KEY DEVELOPMENTS Median cost continues decline The median regional cost continued to decline for the sixth consecutive since December 017. While most assessed sub-districts reported decreases or no, assessed communities in and Be r Al-Hulo reported that the median cost increased by greater than 5%. Trucking load to prioritse agricultural goods In previous years, there had been agreements where trucks coming to governorate to transport MEDIAN COST RANGES (SYP), BY SUB-DISTRICT Closed Open Sporadically Open WITH INCOMPLETE S IN JUNE SUB-DISTRICT Tell Tamer Sairn Lower Shyookh MISSING ITEMS Water Water, Kerosene Water, Kerosene Note: A lack of data for a item does not imply a shortage agricultural products elsewhere in Syria will come loaded with non-food items that will be sold in. However, these agreements are not in place this year and as such it is likely that the region will see relatively higher prices for non-food items during the harvest season while trucks prioritise transporting agricultural goods. Bread price remains stable as bakery opens In governorate, local authorities have opened a bakery capable of producing 10 tons of bread per day. Median bread prices for have remained stable, possibly due to this, with other sub-districts varying in MEDIAN COSTS SANS WATER, BY MONTH median price, up to 0%. In contrast, in Ya robiyah the price of bread has increased by 33%. food costs diverging While the median sub-district cost of food items converged between December 017 and March 018, prices have been diverging again since April Cost 50,000 SYP or less 50,001 to 0,000 SYP 0,001 to 70,000 SYP 70,001 to 80,000 SYP 80,001 SYP or more incomplete No water trucking EXCHANGE RATES, BY MONTH & CURRENCY USD/SYP TRY/SYP MEDIAN COSTS & CHANGES Syrian Pounds Northeast Syria Complete Northeast Syria Non-Water Trucking 59,18 +.% -5.3% 55,7-1.% -.5% Ain al Arab 57,75-0.% -.% * 57, % +0.5% Al-Malikeyyeh* 5,5-1.7% -.8% * 55,0 +1.% NA 1, % -.% * 51, % -10.3%,91 +.8% -.% Jawadiyah* 5,5-8.5% -5.0% * 5, % NA Lower Shyookh NA NA NA 55,08 +.% -10.7% Qahtaniyyeh* 57,15-7.% -.0% Quamishli* 53,79 0.0% -3.5% NA NA NA * 55, % -5.5% * 5, % -5.3% Tal Tamer* 0,89 NA NA * 9,5-1.9% -1.8% Ya'robiyah* 58, % -0.% * Denotes sub-districts where water trucking is not common, and therefore does not have water trucking prices in the cost Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018

3 NORTHEAST SYRIA: FOOD ITEMS & COOKING FUEL FOOD ITEMS See Page 1, Syrian Pounds COOKING FUEL Kerosene 5L, Syrian Pounds MEDIAN FOOD COSTS, BY MONTH Food Items Cooking Fuel 50 Northeast Syria 1, % -.0% Northeast Syria, -.% -7.3% Ain al Arab 0, % -5.9%, % +.% Ain al Arab, -.8% -9.1%, -0.0% -33.3% 5 Al-Malikeyyeh 37,87-1.% -11.% Al-Malikeyyeh 3, % -1.3% 1, % NA, % NA 3,7 +11.% -0.% 39,50-19.% -7.7%, 0.0% %, % -.7% 0,3 +.9% +.8%, -0.0% -50.0% Jawadiyah 3,95-0.5% -1.9% 39, % NA Lower Shyookh 1,380.7% +1.1% 39,5 +.5% -10.5% Qahtaniyyeh 38,77-1.% -1.3% Quamishli 39,83-7.0% -5.5% 1, % -0.7%,0-3.% -.%, % -.3% Tal Tamer 8,13-0.9% NA 37,9-15.% -13.0% Ya'robiyah 5, % +0.9% Jawadiyah, -50.0% 0.0%, -0.0% NA Lower Shyookh,5 -.5% -.5%, % +10.0% Qahtaniyyeh 5, % 0.0% Quamishli 3, % +31.0%,5 -.5% -.5%, 0.0% -30.%, 0.0% -33.3% Tal Tamer, NA NA, 0.0% -50.0% Ya'robiyah, % -0.0% 35 MEDIAN COOKING FUEL COSTS, BY MONTH 3 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018

4 NORTHEAST SYRIA: FOOD ITEMS & COOKING FUEL FOOD ITEMS s & communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Quamishli Jawadiyah Al-Malikeyyeh Qahtaniyyeh Yarobiyah Tal Tamer Cost: Food Items Ain al Arab Shyookh Lower 37,000 SYP or less 37,001 to 0,000 SYP 0,001 to 3,000 SYP 3,001 to,000 SYP,001 SYP or greater Price not available COOKING FUEL s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Quamishli Jawadiyah Al-Malikeyyeh Qahtaniyyeh Tal Tamer Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018 Cost: Cooking Fuel Ain al Arab Yarobiyah Shyookh Lower, SYP or less,501 to,000 SYP,001 to 5, SYP 5,501 to 7,000 SYP 7,001 SYP or greater Price not available

5 NORTHEAST SYRIA: WATER TRUCKING & TRANSPORT FUEL MEDIAN WATER TRUCKING,L, Syrian Pounds Water Truck MEDIAN TRANSPORT FUEL PRICE Diesel and Petrol 1L (Government of Syria and Manually Refined), Syrian Pounds Diesel and Petrol MEDIAN WATER TRUCKING COSTS, BY MONTH 8 Northeast Syria, % +.7% Northeast Syria 15 NA +5.0% Ain al Arab, % +0.5% NA NA NA Ain al Arab % +1.% % -15.9% Al-Malikeyyeh NA NA NA NA NA NA 1, % -0.0% Al-Malikeyyeh % +9.5% % NA 1 +5.% -.7% NA NA NA % -1.%, % -35.0% 1 +.1% -1.% Jawadiyah NA NA NA NA NA NA Lower Shyookh NA NA NA 3, % -.3% Qahtaniyyeh NA NA NA Quamishli NA NA NA Jawadiyah % +7.% % NA Lower Shyookh 5.% +.% % +0.3% Qahtaniyyeh % % Quamishli % +.% TRANSPORT FUEL COSTS, BY MONTH & TYPE NA NA NA 5 +.% +.% NA NA NA % +8.% NA NA NA Tal Tamer NA NA NA NA NA NA Ya'robiyah NA NA NA % +8.9% Tal Tamer 150 NA NA % +57.7% Ya'robiyah % +9.3% MANUALLY REFINED PETROL * Denotes sub-districts where water trucking is not common, and therefore does not have water trucking prices MANUALLY REFINED DIESEL GoS REFINED PETROL GoS REFINED DIESEL 5 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018

6 NORTHEAST SYRIA: WATER TRUCKING & TRANSPORT FUEL WATER TRUCKING s & communities, Syrian Pounds Lower Ain al Arab Shyookh Jawadiyah Al-Malikeyyeh Quamishli Qahtaniyyeh Tal Tamer Cost: Water Yarobiyah Open Sporadically Open Closed 1, SYP or less 1,501 to,000 SYP,001 to, SYP,501 to 3,000 SYP 3,001 SYP or greater No water trucking TRANSPORT FUEL s & communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Quamishli Jawadiyah Al-Malikeyyeh Qahtaniyyeh Tal Tamer Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018 Cost: Transport Fuel Ain al Arab Yarobiyah Shyookh Lower 150 SYP or less 151 to SYP 01 to 50 SYP 51 to SYP 301 SYP or greater Price not available

7 NORTHEAST SYRIA: HYGIENE ITEMS & CELLPHONE DATA MEDIAN HYGIENE ITEMS 1 bars soap, packs of 10 sanitary pads, g toothpaste, Syrian Pounds MEDIAN CELLPHONE DATA 1GB data, Syrian Pound MEDIAN HYGIENE ITEMS COSTS, BY MONTH Hygiene items Phone Data 7 Northeast Median 5,13 +1.% +3.0% Northeast Median,000-7.% -13.0% Ain al Arab 5,08 +5.% +1.3% 5,13 -.1% -.9% Ain al Arab, % -.% 1, % -.5% Al-Malikeyyeh, -1.% +1.3%,70 +.0% NA 5,71-11.% +.% Al-Malikeyyeh 3, % %, % NA 3, % -.7% 5,53-1.3% -11.8% 1, -0.0% -33.3% 5,88 +.% +8.%, % -38.5% 3 Jawadiyah, % -5.0% Jawadiyah 1, % -75.0% 3,050 1.% NA Lower Shyookh,3 7.9% +0.8% 3,00-1.0% NA Lower Shyookh 3, +10.3% +1.3% 3,7 +3.5% -37.% Qahtaniyyeh, % -9.% Quamishli 5, % +9.%,83 -.9% +1.% Qahtaniyyeh 5, % +33.3% Quamishli 1, % -3.% MEDIAN CELLPHONE DATA COSTS, BY MONTH 5,3 +.% +8.3% 5,8 +0.7% -.5%, % -5.5% 1, -1.3% -35.% 8 5, % +7.3% Tal Tamer,85 +1.% NA,11 -.% -7.3% 1, -7.7% -7.8% Tal Tamer 1, NA NA 1, 0.0% -3.0% Ya'robiyah 5, % +.0% Ya'robiyah 1,50-1.9% -30.% 7 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018

8 NORTHEAST SYRIA: HYGIENE ITEMS & CELLPHONE DATA HYGIENE ITEMS s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Open Sporadically Open Closed Quamishli Jawadiyah Al-Malikeyyeh Qahtaniyyeh Ain al Arab Tal Tamer Cost: Hygiene Yarobiyah 3,000 SYP or less Shyookh Lower 3,001 to,000 SYP,001 to 5,000 SYP 5,001 to,000 SYP,001 SYP or greater Price not available CELLPHONE DATA s & Communities, Syrian Pounds Closed Open Sporadically Open Quamishli Jawadiyah Al-Malikeyyeh Qahtaniyyeh Tal Tamer Cost: Data Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018 Ain al Arab Yarobiyah Shyookh Lower 1,000 SYP or less 1,001 to 1, SYP 1,501 to,000 SYP,001 to, SYP, SYP or greater Price not available 8

9 NORTHEAST SYRIA: DISTRIBUTIONS OF PRICES ASSESSED FOOD ITEMS Syrian Pounds CELLPHONE DATA 1GB WATER TRUCKING Syrian Pounds Eggs (30 eggs) Chicken Ghee 350 Vegetable Oil 375 Rice Tomato Red Lentils Paste Sugar Bulgur Flour Milk Potatoes TomatoesCucumbers Bread (8 slices) 150 Onions 8 0 Salt ( g) Cellphone Data (1GB) Water Trucking (1L) ASSESSED FUEL ITEMS Syrian Pounds ASSESSED HYGIENE ITEMS Syrian Pounds 0 0 READING BOXPLOTS 179 Maximum price in dataset Upper quartile: 5% of data is above this point Median price in dataset 0 GoS Petrol 75 Manually Refined Petrol LP Gas 80 Manually Refined Kerosene Manually Refined Diesel GoS Diesel Laundry Powder 33 Dishwashing Liquid 50 Toothpaste ( g) Sanitary Pads (1 Pack) 0 Bathing Soap (1 bar) Example Commodity (1 unit) Lower quartile: 5% of data is below this point Minimum price in dataset 9 Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18 - June 018

10 APPENDIX AND METHODOLOGY METHODOLOGY To be included in the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise, markets must be permanent in nature, large enough to support at least two wholesalers, and diverse enough to provide a sufficient variety of goods and commodities. The shops surveyed within each market must be housed in permanent structures and must sell certain items to be eligible for inclusion. Participating organisations train their enumerators on the Market Monitoring methodology and data collection tools using standard training materials developed by REACH. Each enumerator aims to assess three to five shops of each type in the main market in their assigned sub-district, using surveys to collect information about prices, current product inventory and the time needed to replace current stocks. In sub-districts where direct surveying by enumerators is not possible, such as Lattakia and Deir-ez-Zor, data collection is conducted remotely through key informants such as shop owners, suppliers and consumers. A survey form is deployed on KoBo each to capture price and stock information from different types of establishments, including grocery stores, fuel traders, currency ex shops, water trucking services and mobile phone shops, among others. Nearly all participating partners submit their data to these KoBo forms, using the KoBoCollect Android app to upload data. A small number of partners, by prior permission, collect data using fully harmonised data collection tools deployed on other platforms, then submit their raw data to REACH for standardisation, compilation and cleaning. Following data collection, REACH compiles and cleans all partners data, normalising prices and cross-checking outliers. The cleaned data is then analysed by costs, components of the, and by commodities. These trends are observed at the sub-district-level and, when possible, at the communitylevel. Prices are divided into quartiles and boxplots are created to help CBR TWG members understand the distribution of prices. To illustrate local variations in prices and availability, REACH uses the collected data to map the price of an in each sub-district and adds inllustrations of surrounding border crossings, with data sourced from OCHA. In addition, each component costs and transport fuel prices are graphed to visualize trends over time. The cleaned data sets are available on the REACH Resource Centre and are distributed to all participating partners, as well as to interested clusters and the broader humanitarian community. CHALLENGES AND LIMITATIONS As the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise currently includes 1 partners based in 3 hubs, achieving a consistent approach is inherently challenging. Participating organisations are therefore requested to adopt harmonised data collection methodologies and tools to ensure that the data uploaded is as accurate as possible. Confirming commodity shortages in certain communities was difficult due to a lack of information about general market availability. When follow-ups were unable to confirm these shortages, this is stated in the text. Because this exercise collects data directly from vendors and because it relies on partner organizations for its wide coverage, the exercise may lose coverage sporadically or for longer periods of time owing to challenges in accessing locations or due to loss in the shared data collection capacity of the project. This impacts the ability to report on trends, as can be seen in the line graphs and NA values in the tables. CHANGES TO COVERAGE Given security and access constraints in the divided cities of and Quamishli, markets on only one side of the city could be surveyed. Due to access issues and an escalation of conflict, coverage was lost in Eastern Ghouta in March 018, while most recently some coverage in southern Syria has been lost due to an escalation of conflict beginning in June 018. CALCULATING MEDIAN CHEAPEST PRICE This figure is calculated by taking the median of the minimum-reported prices of a region s sub-districts. In turn, the minimum-reported prices for each sub-district were taken from the median of the minimum-reported prices of the constituent towns assessed. CALCULATING SURVIVAL MINIMUM EXPENDITURE BASKET () COSTS The cost of a is calculated for each assessed sub-districts by calculating the median cheapest price of each commodity in that sub-district, then multiplying these medians by the number of units that an average Syrian household requires to purchase in a. The composition of the can be found on page 1 and vegetables includes potatoes, tomatoes, onions and cucumbers. WHAT IS THE? The Cash-Based Responses Technical Working Group (CBR TWG) was established in May 01 to analyse the impact of the ongoing conflict on markets in Syria and guide the implementation of humanitarian cash and voucher programmes within those markets. REACH and the CBR TWG have been partners on the Syria Market Monitoring Exercise since early 015. Since February 017, the exercise expanded coverage into the south, bringing ly market assessments to communities in Damascus, Rural Damascus, Dar a and Quneitra governorates. ABOUT REACH REACH is a joint initiative of two international nongovernmental organizations ACTED and IMPACT Initiatives and the UN Operational Satellite Applications Programme (UNOSAT). REACH facilitates the development of information tools and products that enhance the capacity of aid actors to make evidence-based decisions in emergency, recovery and development contexts. By doing so, REACH contributes to ensuring that communities affected by emergencies receive the support they need. All REACH activities are conducted in support to and within the framework of inter-agency aid coordination mechanisms. For more information, please visit our website at contact us directly at geneva@reach-initiative.org or follow us on Twitter Syria Market Monitoring Monthly Snapshot: 18- June