Comparative levels of crop protection chemicals used in France and all over the world (1)

Transcription

1 Comparative levels of crop protection chemicals used in France and all over the world (1) Pierre Deiss To cite this version: Pierre Deiss. Comparative levels of crop protection chemicals used in France and all over the world (1). Agronomie, EDP Sciences, 1981, 1 (7), pp <hal > HAL Id: hal Submitted on 1 Jan 1981 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access archive for the deposit and dissemination of scientific research documents, whether they are published or not. The documents may come from teaching and research institutions in France or abroad, or from public or private research centers. L archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, émanant des établissements d enseignement et de recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires publics ou privés.

2 vineyards are DOCUMENT Comparative levels of crop protection France and all over the world (1) chemicals used in Pierre DEISS Marketing Department I.C.I. L SOPRA, 8, Avenue Réaumur, B.P. 208, F Clamart Cedex. SUMMARY Comparative levels of crop protection chemicals used in France and all over the world France is the 3rd largest market after the U.S.A. and Japan and it is the largest European market (excluding Eastern Europe) ahead of West Germany, Italy, Great Britain and Spain. The use of plant protection chemicals varies a great deal in accordance with the different crops and countries : U.S.A. Much use on cotton (insecticides), soyabean and maize (herbicides), fruit crops, but little use on cereals. Japan. Much use on all crops. Developing countries. Rapidly increasing use on crops destined for export, limited by financial problems. Western Europe. In West Germany and Great Britain, much use of fungicides and growth regulators on cereals. Large quantities used on industrial crops, sugar beet, rape, potatoes. France. In the past, a fast growing market, the french demand has increased each year in constant currency since 1945 (1976 being the one exception). Herbicides represent 50 p. 100 of the chemicals in terms of value and these allow weedfree culture of almost all crops. Fungicide use is gradually increasing on cereals and also on rape and - - sugar beet. The traditional markets for fungicides and orchards stable. The use of insecticides is stable globally but new products are much more active than older ones (activity at applications of a few dozen grams per hectare). Growth regulators are of little importance. The forseeable growth in the use of plant protective chemicals in France in the 1980s is of 4-5 p. 100 per year, in constant currency. RÉSUMÉ Niveaux comparés de l utilisation des produits de protection des cultures en France et dans le monde La France est le 3e marché mondial après les U.S.A. et le Japon et le 11 marché européen (Europe de l Est exclue) devant l Allemagne de l Ouest, l Italie, la Grande-Bretagne et l Espagne. L utilisation des produits de protection des plantes est très variable selon les cultures et les pays : U.S.A. : Usage important sur coton (insecticides), soja et maïs (herbicides), cultures fruitières, mais usage faible sur céréales. Japon : Usage très important sur toutes les cultures. Pays en voie de développement : Usage en accroissement rapide sur les cultures à vocation exportatrice, freiné par des problèmes financiers ou d évolution des utilisateurs. Développement des insecticides et fongicides, dans une moindre mesure, des herbicides. Europe de l ouest: En Allemagne de l Ouest et Grande-Bretagne, large utilisation de fongicides et régulateurs de croissance sur céréales. Utilisation élevée sur cultures industrielles, betterave, colza, pomme de terre. France : Un marché en forte croissance dans le passé : Le marché français a augmenté chaque année, en monnaie constante, depuis 1945 (à une exception près : 1976). Les herbicides représentent 50 p. 100 en valeur des produits utilisés et permettent de désherber presque toutes les cultures. Les fongicides sont en progression sensible sur céréales, mais aussi sur colza et betteraves. Les marchés traditionnels fongicides vignes et vergers sont stables. L utilisation des insecticides est globalement stable mais il apparaît de nouveaux produits beaucoup plus performants (activité au niveau de quelques dizaines de g par ha). Les régulateurs de croissance sont peu importants. Utilisation des produits de protection des cultures en France dans les années 80 : croissance prévisible de 4 à 5 p. 100 par an, en monnaie constante. ( ) N.D.L.R. La redaction d Agronomie remercie vivement l auteur d avoir bien voulu ecrire cc document à la suite de la conference qu il a faite sur ce sujet au cours de la Journee d information sur la Protection des cultures «Situation actuelle et perspectives d avenir», organisée à Paris, le 11 décembre 1980, par le groupement phytosanitaire de 1 Association des ingénieurs horticoles (ENSH Versailles).

3 I. PESTICIDES ALL OVER THE WORLD We may date from 1945 modern crop protection with the discovery of the first compounds synthesized by the chemical industry. Since that time this market has grown rapidly. A. The present situation First of all, let us consider the pattern of usage of pesticides by country : The United States lead with 30 p. 100 of the total usage, followed by West Europe, South East Asia and South America. Classification by country (except East Europe including the Soviet Union) : * 1978: 1st U.S.A., 2nd Japan, 3rd France * 1979 : 1st U.S.A., 2nd Japan, 3rd France (fig. 1) followed by Brazil where pesticides consumption is rising quickly. Fungicides are used to a greater degree in West Europe than in the United States. The rest of the world applies more insecticides, while herbicides take first place in the United States. C. Classification of the main markets according to crop All over the world a wide variety of crops are grown. Five crops represent 53 p. 100 of the total market of agricultural products in the world : corn, cotton, rice, soya beans and wheat. With corn and cotton the two main crops in the United States it is easy to see why this country is so important on the world market of agricultural products. In Japan and in the Far-East, rice is the number one crop followed by orchards, vegetables and corn. In the rest of the world (South America, Africa) cotton and corn are the leaders. It is interesting to look at the main markets together with the largest agricultural countries of the world : corn in the U.S.A., cereals in Western Europe, cotton in the U.S.A. and vineyards in Western Europe (fig. 3). B. Classification of the main markets according to product Herbicides all over the world represent 40 p. 100 of the total followed by insecticides and fungicides (fig. 2). The usage of herbicides is higher in countries where agriculture is highly developed and agricultural labour is short. It is reduced in less developed countries with abundant agricultural labour (Africa, Indonesia, Philippines). In China herbicides usage is low in the intensive agricultural areas, but is developing in the new extensive agricultural areas of Mandchourie. The type of products varies according to factors such as :. the degree of development of the country,! the climatic influence on the development of insects and the crops grown.

4 Though of a smaller size, european markets compare favourably with the American ones. In the crop protection industry one finds the main multinational chemicals companies. The classification of the first 24 companies is given in table 1. II. CROP PROTECTION MARKETS IN WESTERN EUROPE The level of utilization of crop protection chemicals varies considerably between the various european countries (fig. 4). The main reason is not due to climatic conditions as one might think. There is no direct relationship between fungicide consumption and the annual rainfall. Other factors of economic origin are more important. More modern fungicides are used in France and in Western Germany than in Italy or Spain for instance. In France the value of chemicals used varies from 5 to 1 between the Champagne area and the south of France. In the U.K. more and more fungicides are sprayed in an highly mechanised intensive agriculture. We shall introduce the two main markets in Western Europe : cereals and vineyards. A. Cereals This is the most important crop in West European Market. Cereals are grown in every country in Europe and they are the most important crop in many of them. Even in Switzerland cereals represent 20 p. 100 of the total while in several countries that figure is up to 50 p In Italy and Spain, however, herbicide usage is limited due to poor financial situation of the growers. Hormones still represent the most important herbicides used. All over Europe new products, often more sophisticated, are developing for an average cost of 100 F per hectare. It is doubtful that broadleaved herbicides are always economically justifiable but they are accepted as a basic good agricultural practice to keep fields clean. Grass herbicides have considerably expanded during the last decade because they definitely have an effect on the profitability of the crop. Europe can be divided into two parts : 9 Intensive cereal growing areas with winter wheat and winter barley such as France, U.K., Germany, Benelux ; in Denmark spring cereals predominate. o Areas of extensive agriculture where cereals are important. It is always surprising for instance when one considers the areas of cereals in Southern Europe for example : Italy 5 million ha and Spain 7 million hectares. Not only the use of herbicides is important in intensive areas but also spraying fungicides tend to become a common practice. On the other hand insecticides are more sporadically sprayed. Seed dressing treatments have been systematically applied for a long time. Last to come on the market are the plant growth regulators that already cover fairly large areas. B. Vineyards 70 p. 100 of the vineyards of the world are in Europe. Italy, France and Spain produce much more than the rest of the world. Fungicides are most important. Sulfur, copper, dithiocarbamates alone or in mixture are still the leaders. Systemic fungicides help this market to expand rapidly. The use of herbicides is limited in Southern Europe : Italy and Spain. In Germany on the contrary herbicides are applied on more than 85 p. 100 of the total area.

5 C. How has the west european market evolved This market has constantly increased during the last 20 years. It is interesting to examine its evolution within inflation. In constant currency of 1978, the results of 1979 vary from + 28 p. 100 in Ireland to - 9 p. 100 in Spain. Several countries have a rate of growth inferior to 5 p. 100 : for example, Germany with only + 2,4 p The main european markets are : France, Western Germany, Italy, U.K., Spain and Holland (fig. 4). These countries differ very much in size. The volume of pesticides used in Holland has no relation at all with that of Spain. One cannot tell how much pesticide per ha is applied except for a crop in particular. Crop by crop the classification of the uses is : cereals with 1/3 of the total followed by vineyards, sugarbeet, orchards and maize (table 2). We shall now examine the main features of the French market. The growth rate is + 21,2 p. 100 which is just a little more than the last estimate made 2 months ago. The last quarter of 1980 will be higher than the last quarter of The total 1980 turnover at distributor level will be more than 4 billion francs, i.e p. 100 in comparison with Progression by category of products During the last decade herbicides have grown to 50 p. 100 of the total pesticide market. It now seems that this is the upper limit, in front of the strong growth of fungicides while insecticides remain with 15 p. 100 of the total market. For a long time seed dressings were the main products classified as «other pesticides» but plant growth regulators are becoming more and more important. Progression by crops No official figures exist. For the campaign we can tell that the following crops : cereals, vineyards, sugarbeets and maize represent more than 80 p. 100 of the total market (fig. 5). They are followed by orchards, vegetables, flowers, potatoes, oil-seed rape, sunflower, sorghum, tobacco, flax, etc. III. THE FRENCH MARKET It has rapidly expanded since During the last decade it has grown regularly except in 1976 when it failed by 7 %. The main reason was : after the first oil crisis in 1974, prices increased rapidly. Many distributors and some farmers overstocked during the campaign The campaign started with a high level of stocks but consump- As a result tion was limited due to the 1976 drought. distributor sales seriously decreased during the second part of Since 1977 growth in constant currency as well as current currency is regular. New markets, such as cereal fungicides stimulated this growth. The last figures of the «Union des Industries de la Protection des Plantes» concerns the campaign IV. WHAT WILL THE FUTURE BE LIKE? Within the «Union des Industries pour la Protection des Plantes» studies are regularly conducted under each of the previous headings. They take into account the use of pesticides as it is much more difficult to build up projections for the other crop protection methods. A. At worldwide level The next decade will probably be a busy one for the crop protection industry. At the present moment losses of crops due to pests, grasses, etc... are up to 30 p. 100.

6 - Stable - - Regressing: In India where crops are poor, losses reach 50 p. 100 during storage. The F.A.O. recalls that human nutrition is the essential priority for the next decade. In order to give any human being enough food to live, the main crops must be intensified. What can we observe? Growth of agricultural production has been 0 p. 100 in the developing countries between 1950 and Such a fact has to be changed even if it is difficult. As a consequence more productive countries such as the U.S.A. and those in Western Europe will have to increase their agricultural production and deliver their excesses to the less fortunate nations. It will not be as simple as that however because increasing production is not sufficient. The problem of financing these changes will have to be solved. Crop protection and a better selection of crops will help to achieve that intensification. The experts forecast an annual growth rate of + 3,5 p. 100 between 1980 and 1984 in constant currency for the worldwide market (fig. 6). That growth is interesting in comparison with many other activities where growth rates are expected to be about 0 p decrease to the benefit of agriculture in general. The total market would remain stable. In Italy the restoration of land to cultivation would aim at big volume increases (from 30 to 40 p. 100 between 1980 and 1990). In Belgium a growth rate of 20 to 25 p. 100 is expected. In Spain, if financing was normal, the market would expand by 40 p. 100 to 60 p. 100 though irregularly as in Spain is the only country where the value of the market has decreased in constant currency. In the U.K. a growth rate of 20 p. 100 might be expected. In France the study is very pessimistic. The fungicide market would move from index 100 in 1978 to index 90 in The same trend can be observed for insecticides and herbicides. The french experts as a whole think differently. The diminution of the gross profit of french farmers is often cited as being the main explanation. It is true to say that the agricultural figures in 1980 are less favourable than in That decrease is mainly due to the livestock sector which use few, if any, crop protection chemicals. During the last ten years, pesticides prices have risen less than inflation and they represent a small part of the total agricultural expanses. For these reasons we believe in a more optimistic hypothesis. C. The next decade in France Except for a serious economical crisis, the french market is expected to increase by 12 to 14 p. 100 per annum in constant currency for the next five years. These figures include inflation of 8 to 10 p. 100 per annum for crop protection chemicals as a whole. This price increase will probably be inferior to the rate of national inflation (12 p. 100 expected in 1981). Price progression has been regularly inferior to national inflation over the past four years. The volume progression of the market would be about 4 p. 100 per annum. The link between the variation of the volume and quality is difficult to establish though as a formula it is used to on the define the evolution of the existing range of products market. For example, when a vine-grower gives up a powder insecticide applied at the rate of 10 kg/ha for a new insecticide of which the rate is 0,21 to 0,3 1/ha or when he gives up copper fungicide for a systemic one, there is a big drop in volume. Thus it is correct to forecast a volume decrease for the future. Nonetheless this has no effect on the value of the products being used. What may influence the market is a modification in the acreage of the various crops. D. Evolution of acreages in France for the period 1980 to 1990 : B. In western Europe A minimum rate of growth is expected in Europe. That is the conclusion of a study conducted by FROST & SULLIVAN in In most european countries the market would be at the saturation level. Only Italy, Greece, Spain and Portugal would still offer some opportunities. Let us consider the common market countries first. The Agricultural Policy would favour food production in the Benelux and in the U.K. at the expanse of France, and to a lesser extent, Germany. As a result, Western Germany would face a very limited growth (5 p. 100 for the next decade). In Holland the importance of horticulture should Revue d Agronomie no peas. : cereals, sugarbeet, potatoes. Progressing: oil-seed rape, sunflowers, soya beans, vineyards (low quality wines), orchards. The evolution of the buying power of farmers should also be taken into account. An actual drop is noticeable in the orchard area which is traditionnally a big pesticides consummer. As far as other crops are concerned farmers are expected to limit their purchases of heavy machines and fertilisers before turning to the crop protection chemicals. These are results of markets surveys in The development of new

7 - Study - Anonymous pesticides, together with the development of new markets segments will enable the global market to expand in value. Evolution of the value of the markets considered both from crop and products point of view :! Stable : Herbicides cereals oil-seed rape sugarbeet maize! Progressing : Insecticides cereals Herbicides Fungicides vineyards cereals oil-seed rape sunflowers! Regressing : Herbicides sugarbeet Fungicides vineyards (downy mildewicide) French agriculture must improve its profitability. Crop protection should help to achieve that aim. The use of pesticides will have to be economically justified. This will be achieved if efforts are made by the whole pesticide industry to help farmers to improve the use of our products. Because we believe in such an improvement we are optimistic : French agriculture will grow within the next ten years and the crop protection industry will be one of the most important factors of that improvement. REFERENCES Reçu Ie 2 avril Accepté le 24 avril Some of the information presented in this article were taken from : of the West European pesticide market (special study carried out by FROST & SULLIVAN, 1980). Look at the world pesticide market (Farm Chem., 61, sept. 1979).