Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining

Transcription

1 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining Brendan Tierney Antony Heljula

2 Who Are We? Brendan Tierney Deputy Editor Currently: Lecturer DBA Data Mining Consultant BI Architect Trainer Working with Oracle products since 1992/1993 Oracle version 5 up to 11g Oracle Reports (RPT), ReportWriter I, RPT, Forms 2.3 Oracle Data Miner since 2005 Data Warehousing since 1997 Data Mining since 1998 Deputy Chair BI & EPM SIG Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 2

3 Who Are We? Antony Heljula Technical Director, Peak Indicators Ltd 10 years experience with Oracle BI / Apps 15 years experience with Oracle Data Warehousing Previously worked for Siebel/Oracle as a BI Architect New to Data Mining! Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 3

4 Agenda Aim of Presentation About Oracle Data-Mining What you need to know about ODM Demonstration of Predictive BI Further considerations The BIG Questio0n: Will it work on YOUR Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 4

5 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining Aim of Presentation Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 5

6 Data Mining Definition Data Mining is the non-trivial extraction of previously unknown and potentially useful information from (large collections of) data Predictive Analytics Real Predictive Analytics We want to find hidden patterns in the data Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 6

7 Aim of Presentation We ve got so much data but we never do any data mining to make sense of what we have! Once we go live with our dashboards we ll be able to do some complex data-mining! How many times have you heard these types of comments? Data mining is one of those topics that many people talk about but few actually understand its full potential and what is involved Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 7

8 Aim of Presentation We ve got so much data but we never do any data mining to make sense of what we have! Once we go live with our dashboards we ll be able to do some complex data-mining! This presentation aims to: Describe Data Mining from a Business perspective Demonstrate the value of integrating Oracle Data Mining and Business Intelligence: Predictive BI Explain how any Organization can use and benefit from data mining Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 8

9 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining About Oracle Data Mining Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 9

10 Oracle Data Mining Why do we need it? When we analyse data on dashboards, humans are good at spotting simple trends involving a small number of dimensions e.g. Age and Sex But humans find it difficult to: Find patterns when you need to analyse large amounts of data over many different dimensions Spot associations or affinities with probabilities for determining a level of confidence Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 10

11 Oracle Data Mining Why do we need it? When we analyse data on dashboards, humans are good at spotting simple trends involving a small number of dimensions e.g. Age and Sex Data mining will help you find hidden and non-trivial patterns of behaviour in your data But humans find it difficult to: Find patterns when you need to analyse large amounts of data over many different dimensions Spot associations or affinities with probabilities for determining a level of confidence Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 11

12 Oracle Data Mining Why do we need it? When we analyse data on dashboards, humans are good at spotting simple trends involving a small number of dimensions Data Mining is about explaining the past e.g. Age and Sex But humans find it difficult to: to predict the future. Find patterns when you need to analyse large amounts of data over many different dimensions Spot associations or affinities with probabilities for determining a level of confidence Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 12

13 Data Mining Algorithms Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 13

14 Oracle Hardware and Software Engineering to Work Together Oracle is the world's most complete, open, and integrated business software and hardware systems company Data Warehousing, VLDB and ILM» Oracle Data Mining 12- in-db data mining algorithms Mine star schemas, text, transactional data In-DB model build & apply Exadata scoring 50+ in-db statistical functions» Oracle R Enterprise Run R in-db; function push down to SQL Wide library of supported in-db statistical functions Embedded R supports all R packages Plug in for 11.2g Will be part of 12c New GUI New Oracle Advanced Analytics Option Oracle has taught the RDBMS how to perform data mining, statistical analysis, adv. analytics, etc. Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 14

15 Oracle Data Mining Why do we need it? When asked Business questions, employees tend to give subjective or biased responses Take this example: Why is this product not selling? Who are our best customers? Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 15

16 Oracle Data Mining Why do we need it? We need better demos! Sales Rep Too many bugs! Service Agent Not enough marketing spend! Marketer Delivery timescales are too tight! Developer We don t get enough training! Consultant Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 16

17 Oracle Data Mining Why do we need it? We need better demos! Sales Rep Delivery timescales are too tight! Which one is right? Too many bugs! Data mining Service Agent will help you find out the unbiased truth! Not enough marketing spend! Marketer We don t get enough training! Developer Consultant Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 17

18 Oracle Data Mining What does it do? Oracle Data Mining (ODM) is a component of the Oracle Database (EE) All your data stays in the same place In-Database Data Mining You need to focus on the Business problem With ODM, various algorithms can be applied to your historical data these algorithms can build complex analytical models to explain your data Before you look at the data The statistical models can then be used to help answer Business questions. For example: Is this angry customer likely to churn? Customer Service History Analytical Model Angry-ish Customer Likelihood to Churn? Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 18

19 Oracle Data Mining Everyone can benefit! Example : Higher Education Build a statistical model on the history of your student retention When the next intake of students apply for their courses, use the statistical model to predict which students are most likely to withdraw early from their courses Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 19

20 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining What you need to know about ODM Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 20

21 What Do You Need To Know About ODM? Nothing! We need to hire lots of statisticians and PhDs On No You Don t You just need someone who understands the technologies and knows how to apply them to business problems! Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 21

22 ODM and OBI Demonstration How it happened Tony Brendan, how can we help universities reduce the number of students who withdraw early from their courses? When they are applying. Brendan Brendan What s the Business Problem? At what point in the process do you want to do this? Tony Tony Tony Yes, we have a flag to state which ones withdrew early and which ones did not! We ve got a list of all students going back 5 years Brendan Brendan Are you able to tell which students withdrew early? What data do you have? Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 22

23 ODM and OBI Demonstration How it happened (continued) Tony OK, I can do that Brendan Can you give me a data set with 1 record per student with as many attributes as possible, including the withdraw flag The data set should have 50% withdrawals and 50% nonwithdrawals Tony OK, and then what? Great! Brendan Brendan I will produce a predictive model that can help you predict which future students are likely to withdraw early Tony Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 23

24 ODM and OBI Demonstration Data Set handed to ODM Expert 1 record per student, each record with 28 attributes 50% of records with WITHDRAW_FLAG= Y 50% of records with WITHDRAW_FLAG= N ODM will look for a pattern in the data based on the Target variable Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 24

25 ODM and OBI Demonstration Developing Predictive Models in ODM Explore the data to get a better understanding Data Cleaning Approximately 40% of the attributes were discarded for the analysis Identified Data Capture Issues with the Applications Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 25

26 ODM and OBI Demonstration Developing Predictive Models in ODM Data Cleaning Approximately 40% of the attributes were discarded for the analysis We used the cleaned data to create a number of predictive models in ODM We developed 4 different Classification Models Learn from the past Using 5 years of historical data Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 26

27 ODM and OBI Demonstration Deciding what Predictive Model to use What predictive model was the best Based on our training and testing data set Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 27

28 ODM and OBI Demonstration Applying our Model to New Data We have learned from the past Now let us predict the future Now apply our ODM model to our new data and make a prediction 82% Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 28

29 ODM and OBI Demonstration Data Mining Model Produced On completion, we built a simple database view that would return for each new student application: Student ID Withdraw Prediction (Y/N) Prediction Probability We could now use these predictions in our dashboards! Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 29

30 ODM and OBI Demonstration Data Mining Model Produced Using the ODM Model in SQL Scoring new data PREDICTION and PREDITION_PROBABILITY SELECT cust_id, prediction(clas_decision_tree using *), prediction_probability(clas_decision_tree using *) FROM NEW_DATA_TO_SCORE WHERE cust_id = ; OR Real-Time Scoring Bulk Scoring exec dbms_data_mining.apply('clas_decision_tree', 'NEW_DATA_TO_SCORE', 'ST_PK', 'NEW_DATA_SCORED'); Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 30

31 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining Demonstration of Predictive BI Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 31

32 Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 32

33 Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 33

34 Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 34

35 E-Learner Female unknown Poor data quality Science Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 35

36 Predictions mostly correct! Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 36

37 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining Further Considerations Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 37

38 Further Considerations Which ODM Models to Use? For this Higher Education example, 4 different models were attempted before the right one was found How do you know when you have found the right model? With ODM you can partition the data set so that, for example, 70% can be used for building the models and the remaining 30% can be used for testing it afterwards When ODM has finished analysing your data, it tests the resultant statistical model against the bit of data that was not processed You can then keep refining your models until you have a satisfactory amount of LIFT (an indicator stating how good or accurate your model is) Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 38

39 Further Considerations Refining Models Do I have to do this all the time? Answer: Yes and No Our Model correctly predicted 82% of the student churners Historical Data Model New Data Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 39

40 Further Considerations Data Quality Data quality is key Data cleansing could be a significant part of the whole data mining project The amount of Unknowns should be reduced to an absolute minimum Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 40

41 Getting Real Business Value out of Oracle BI and Oracle Data Mining The BIG Question: Will it work on YOUR data? Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 41

42 The BIG Question Will it work on YOUR data? Yes! But ODM is ideally suited to a company with a mature (ish) BI environment and good data quality The only real way to prove the effectiveness of ODM is to perform a pilot on your own actual data You should expect a pilot to take approximately 5-8 weeks in duration Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 42

43 Find me something interesting in my data is a question from hell. Analytics should be guided by business goals Before you can measure something you really need to lay down a very concrete definition of what you re measuring Focus hard on Business Question and the relevant target variable that captures the essence of the question. Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 43

44 Contact Us Antony Heljula: linkedin.com/antonyheljula ie.linkedin.com/in/brendantierney Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 44

45 Peak Indicators Limited & Brendan Tierney, DIT. 45