Open Source Data Analysis: Contributions to Enhancing Transparency in the BWC

Transcription

1 Innovative and Enabling Technologies: Embracing Developments in S&T to Benefit Treaty Implementation Open Source Data Analysis: Contributions to Enhancing Transparency in the BWC 3 December 2014 Side-event to the Meeting of States Parties to the BWC Gunnar Jeremias and Dr. Mirko Himmel

2 Framing the Problem Lack of organised/coordinated gathering of compliance relevant information, Lack of consensus (and debate) about scope and characteristics of compliance. Challenges in gathering information outside of a multilateral mechanism: Parameters and signatures? Identifying information sources? Actorness?

3 Characteristics of independent monitoring NGOs: Define parameters/signatures independently, Network approach for application aspired, For example: No binary ( 0/1 ) results of compliance interpretation, Methodology: Case studies under the hypothesis that there is noncompliance in an investigated case as starting point (scientific approach), Enable actors to ask qualified questions. Relevant information will be recognised and likely cause reactions.

4 Transparency, Verification and Technical Means Producing transparency is not verification, but the provision of facts. Verification is the judgement of these information by mandated actors. Independent monitoring not an alternative for verification NTMs ITMs PTMs PTMs and NTMs might use the same or similar technology, but NTMs: exclusive technology: Secrecy PTMs: public/open source technology: Openess; Third path of monitoring compliance.

5 Open Source Data (OS) With the absence of an agreed mechanism OS is the only available source Open source data as major subset of big data 1. Data are generated and collected from a number of distinct sources [ ] 2. Data are being added to, deleted from and/or changed in datasets at different speeds [ ] 3. Datasets are incomplete, imperfect and error-prone, and the data collected in these repositories are not standardised 4. The amount of data in these datasets is very large [ ] Open Source Data is typically not leaked data! The majority of data has not to be measured The challenge is rahther to define filters for the noise

6 Use of Open Source Data Multilteral regimes using Open Source Data in monitoring compliance NPT, INCB, Enviromental treaties, Civil society using Open Source Data: Environmental Groups, investigative journalism, Elliot Higgins and others: geo-locating of places of the Arab Spring, Ukraine, Syria. (

7 And in the BWC regime? We don t know yet, but we are trying to find out

8 Open source data analysis Zur Anzeige wird der QuickTime Dekompressor TIFF (Unkomprimiert) benötigt.

9 Open source data analysis There are a lot of data available, but...

10 Open source data analysis There are a lot of data available, but...?

11 Open source data analysis Use of filters,... -> fast & accurate search

12 Open source data analysis

13 Open source data analysis Imagery Near-site sampling Off-site sampling Starting point (Bio-)Technologies Starting point Disease Monitoring BSL Labs Enabeling technologies Starting point Trade monitoring Social media Starting point Scientific literature Meeting reports Technical documentation Starting point

14 Open source data analysis Big Data means... The amount of (worldwide) datasets The techniques to analyse large datasets Estimation: Every 2 years the amount of the worldwide data set doubles!

15 Big Data Characteristic features of Big Data*: Variety (different sources) Volume (very large datasets: >Petabyte) Velocity (new data sets added at different times and with a different speed) Veracity (error-prone, incomplete or incorrect datasets) Open source data analysis * Joint AAAS-FBI-UNICRI Project Report 2014

16 Open source data analysis Data Collection and Evaluation Literature survey, data mining, etc. Extraction of key words => indicator x Classification of found indicators Cross-correlation with different fields-of-interest Make an assessment: level of compliance?!

17 Open source data analysis

18 Assessment of Data Sets Graphical Output of Data Assessment (Example) Indicator 9 Indicator 6 Indicator 7 Indicator 8 Indicator 10 Indicator 1 Indicator 2 Biotech Industries Indicator 5 Research & Development Indicator 11 Indicator 12 Indicator 3 Indicator 4 full none Level of Compliance

19 Assessment of Data sets Example: Reports about a military compound Local Newspaper Report Arms Control Experts Analytical Report Release of: o Maps, o Satellite imagery o Names of locations, people o Description of context Starting points

20 Social media Analysis Circles: Reporters Colour code: No. of citations

21 Social media Analysis Circles: Reporters Colour code: No. of citations

22 Remote Sensing Define a set of typical signatures (Here: Signature of a biological lab (historical experience, state-of-the-art techniques, special requirements,...) Collect optical imagery, multispectral data sets, infrared images,... Find signatures (manually or automatically) Interpret & correlate observed signatures

23 Wikimapia: Searching for objects Example 1 Search for any objects within a search radius around a fixed geographical location. Example 2 Search for nearest objects from a fix geographical location. 100 miles Requires geo-coordinates, keywords

24 2000 Railway station Former military compound

25 2004 Railway station Former military compound Biochemical Laboratories New building

26 2006 Railway station Former military compound Biochemical Laboratories New building

27 Air cooling fans 2014 Railway station Former military compound Biochemical Laboratories New building New building

28 Open source data analysis

29 Conclusion: Open source data analysis A single indicator most probably will not give hint to noncompliance with the BTWC There is the need for cross-correlation with other indicators -> Benefit of open source data analysis & web-based approach! In almost all cases (hopefully) the result of the assessment will be: High level of compliance! (= No indications for non-compliance!)