HPC in Industry/Commerce

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1 IDC Market and Research Update: HPC in Industry/Commerce Steve Conway and Kevin Monroe June 21, 2016

Introduction 2015 Worldwide HPC Market Results HPDA Market Update Update on IDC Industry-Related Research: Manufacturing Apps: Factors Limiting

2 Introduction 2015 Worldwide HPC Market Results HPDA Market Update Update on IDC Industry-Related Research: Manufacturing Apps: Factors Limiting Performance Update: Global HPC ROI study New Study: Best Practices in HPC Public-Private Partnerships Q & A IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 2

3 IDC s HPC Team New Earl Joseph Steve Conway Bob Sorensen Kevin Monroe IDC HPC research studies, HPC User Forum and strategic consulting, Japan Strategic consulting, HPC User Forum, market trends, Big Data Strategic research, government studies, international analysis HPC market economics and financial analysis Lloyd Cohen HPC data analysis and workstations Gabriella Cattaneo Sylvie Merkling European research and government relations New Menglang Shi China market research and analysis 3

HPC User Forum: 60 Meetings Worldwide Since 2000 Amsterdam, Netherlands (SARA) Annecy, France Bangalore, India (Indian Institute of Technology) Beijing, China (Chinese Academy of Sciences) Bologna,

4 HPC User Forum: 60 Meetings Worldwide Since 2000 Amsterdam, Netherlands (SARA) Annecy, France Bangalore, India (Indian Institute of Technology) Beijing, China (Chinese Academy of Sciences) Bologna, Italy (CINECA) Bristol, UK Bruyères-le-Châtel, France (Teratec) Canberra, Australia Geneva, Switzerland (CERN) Kobe, Japan (RIKEN) Lausanne, Switzerland (EPFL) London, UK (Imperial College) Manchester, UK (Manchester University) Melbourne, Australia Munich, Germany (LRZ) New Delhi, India (Indian Institute of Science) Paris, France (GENCI) Seoul, Korea (National Institute of Supercomputing & Networking) Stuttgart, Germany (HLRS) Warsaw, Poland (University of Warsaw) Yokohama, Japan (Earth Simulator Center) Zurich, Switzerland (ETH Zurich) United States (many locations)

5 Future HPC User Forum Meetings 2016 Meetings: September 6 to 8, Austin Texas, USA September 22/23, Beijing, China September 29/30, Oxford, United Kingdom 2017 Meetings: April 17 to 19, Santa Fe, New Mexico September 5 to 7, Milwaukee, Wisconsin

6 Steering Committee Members Paul Muzio, City University of New York (Chair) Rupak Biswas, NASA Ames (Vice Chair) Earl Joseph, IDC (Executive Director) Swamy Akasapu, General Motors Vijay Agarwala, Penn State University Alex Akkerman, Ford Motor Company C. Scot Atkins, Industry Expert: Advanced Analytics/Dense Supercomputing Doug Ball, HPC expert (formerly Boeing) Jeff Broughton. NERSC/Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Paul Buerger, Avetec Simon Burbidge, Imperial College London Chris Catherasoo, Caltech Clayton Chandler, Credit Suisse/New York Jack Collins, National Cancer Institute Steve Conway, IDC Research Vice President Steve Finn, Cherokee Information Services Merle Giles, NSCA/University of Illinois Keith Gray, British Petroleum Sharan Kalwani, Fermilab Arno Kolster, PayPal Doug Kothe, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Jysoo Lee, NICN David Martin, Argonne National Laboratory Stephane Requena, GENCI Michael Resch, HLRS, University of Stuttgart Vince Scarafino, Industry Expert Suzy Tichenor, Oak Ridge National Laboratory Red = new

HPC and Europe s Economy Industry accounted for 25.2% of EU GDP in 2013. IDC study: 97% of industrial firms that adopted HPC say it s indispensable.

7 HPC and Europe s Economy Industry accounted for 25.2% of EU GDP in IDC study: 97% of industrial firms that adopted HPC say it s indispensable. Manufacturing contributed 30 million jobs and 16% of EU GDP ( 6,500 billion) in HPC has transformed product design in the manufacturing sector. HPC will help enable job creation through smart manufacturing. The oil and gas industry is responsible for 170,000 European jobs and 440 billion of Europe's GDP. O&G majors use HPC as a competitive weapon for exploration & production. The health sector (including pharmaceuticals) represents 10% of EU GDP and 8% of the EU workforce. HPC is helping to enable the digital transformation of the health sector. From 1970 through 2012, severe weather cost 149,959 lives and 270 billion in economic damages in Europe. Europe arguably leads the world in HPC-based (numerical) weather prediction. IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on B 7

8 2015 HPC Worldwide Market Results IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 8

9 The Worldwide HPC Server Market: $11.4 Billion in 2015 HPC Servers $11.4B Supercomputers (Over $500K) $3.3B Workgroup (under $100K) $1.9B Divisional ($250K - $500K) $2.2B Departmental ($250K - $100K) $4.0B

10 IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 10

11 2015 HPC Market: By Industry/Applications

12 The Broader HPC Market

13 The HPC Market In Europe: By Workloads

14 The HPC Market In Europe: The Broader Market

Update: HPDA Market IDC Global Forecast (2015-2020)

15 Update: HPDA Market IDC Global Forecast ( ) IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 15

16 HPDA = Data-Intensive Computing Using HPC Modeling & Simulation Existing HPC users Larger problem sizes Higher resolution Iterative methods EP jobs to the cloud (Novartis) New commercial users E.g., SMEs Drivers: Competition Complexity Time Advanced Analytics Existing HPC users Intelligence community, FSI Data-driven science/ engineering (e.g., biology) Knowledge discovery ML/DL, cognitive, AI New commercial users Fraud/anomaly detection Business intelligence Affinity marketing Personalized medicine IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 16

17 HPDA Includes Cumulative Results of Iterative Methods Parametric modeling (product design) Stochastic modeling (financial) Ensemble modeling (weather/climate)

18 HPDA Server Market Forecast to 2020 HPDA Server Forecast Comparisons ($ Millions) $4,000 $3,500 $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 Traditional segments: 16.8% CAGR New commercial analytics segments: 26.3% CAGR $500 $ New Forecast Previous May'15 Forecast Previous May'14 Forecast IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 18

19 HPDA As a % of Total HPC Utilization (All Systems) IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 19

20 Where HPDA Workloads Are Run IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 20

Leverages HPC and enterprise architectures to deliver HPDA for making real time business decisions.

safeguarding millions of transactions per day in real time.

12 Million+ logins / day 15 Million+ transactions /day Operations analytics in real time Real time

21 Leverages HPC and enterprise architectures to deliver HPDA for making real time business decisions. Fraud detection in real time Hybrid HPC and enterprise systems provide fraud analytics for safeguarding millions of transactions per day in real time. High volume, highly scalable and highly available. 12 Million+ logins / day 15 Million+ transactions /day Operations analytics in real time Real time anomaly detection in correlated event streams minimize operational downtime and maximize customer satisfaction by using predictive analytics. 3 Million events / second 25 Tb of data ingested / hour 21

neighboring blade ~67% moving data from top blade to middle blade in a rack 25x moving data from top blade to

22 Processing in Memory USPS reports processing very large data sets in memory can boost performance up to 6 orders of magnitude: Processing outside of memory can cut performance: ~50% moving data from one blade to neighboring blade ~67% moving data from top blade to middle blade in a rack 25x moving data from top blade to bottom blade in a rack Much more when moving data between racks IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 22

23 HPDA Application: Smart City Buildings Businesses Communication Transport City Services Water Energy Citizens 23

24 HPDA Application: Internet of Things (IoT) IoT Network Management Wellness Security China s IoT plan Dense local nodes Driverless traffic Smart power grid IoT edge computing Not just the Internet of Stupid Things! IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 24

25 Novartis/Schrödinger: Cloud-based Lead Discovery for Drug Design

26 Outcomes-Based Medical Diagnosis and Treatment Planning Enter the patient s history and symptomology. While patient is still in the office, sift through millions of archived patient records for relevant outcomes. Provider considers the efficacies of various treatments for similar patients (but is not bound by the findings). Ergo, this functions as a powerful decision-support tool. Benefits: better outcomes + rein in costly outlier practices 26

27 HPDA Application Healthcare Innovations IBM Watson many examples (worldwide) Childrens Mercy Hospital (U.S.): rare childhood diseases Mannheim Frauenklinik (Germany): childbirth Frédéric Joliot Hospital (France): PET scan tracer optimization University of Oslo (Norway): bowel and prostate cancer Lobachevsky State University of Nizhni Novgorod (Russia): 3D virtual clones of patients University of Toronto SickKids Center (Canada): genomic medicine Neuroblastoma and Medulloblastoma Translational Research Consortium, Michigan (U.S.) University of Rochester Medical Center (U.S.): infant seizures Ariana Pharma (France): long-term cancer case management Victor Chang Cardiac Research Institute (Australia): heart arhythmias IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 27

28 IDC Industry-Related Research Steve Conway and Kevin Monroe June 21, 2016

Research in Progress DOE: 3-year global study on ROI related to HPC investments NSF-NCSA: global study on best practices in public-private HPC partnerships Multi-client study: annual global HPC/HPDA

29 Research in Progress DOE: 3-year global study on ROI related to HPC investments NSF-NCSA: global study on best practices in public-private HPC partnerships Multi-client study: annual global HPC/HPDA end-user study Government: in-depth study #2 on cyber security practices in the U.S. private sector Government (multiple studies): exascale initiatives around the world Government: in-depth study on algorithms used in high performance data analysis (HPDA) Government: evaluate alternative strategies for expanding agency's HPC capacity Government: help analyze competitive bids for large HPC system contract Private: HPC center user satisfaction and requirements Private: global study on the HPC market for cloud computing Private: global study on the HPC market for machine learning/deep learning Private: global study on the HPC market for SMEs IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 29

30 HPC Applications Used in Manufacturing: Factors Limiting Performance IDC Study for NSF/NCSA (2012) IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 30

31 Executive Summary IDC conducted the study in 2012 In-depth interviews + focus group 30 U.S. companies From 22 to 164,000 employees R&D expenditures: 3% to 45% of revenues. Average R&D investment 6.5 times more, as a % of revenues, than for all U.S. companies as a group 31

32 Goals of the NCSA / NSF Study Document which HPC applications the surveyed manufacturers are using today, and their purposes Determine the scalability of these applications (e.g., number of cores). Identify the barriers preventing greater scalability (e.g., ISV reluctance, costs, time, algorithmic limitations, scientific limitations), including the core science issues and barriers Determine what methods the manufacturers are using, if any, to get past scalability limits Recommend areas where additional investment could improve the scalability of applications, especially where investment could be leveraged to benefit scientific and industrial HPC users. 32

33 Research Methodology IDC conducted intensive interviews, in person or by phone, with individuals from 30 organizations who were selected for their known or assumed deep understanding of the attributes of key software applications in their areas of activity. These individuals came from a broad enough spectrum of industrial segments to be representative of the HPC-reliant industry sector as a whole. IDC convened a focus group in conjunction with our HPC User Forum held in Richmond, Virginia. Invited participants included noted experts in multiple fields of computational science and engineering. These individuals were also known to have a strong understanding of the relationships between their HPC applications and the science underpinning the applications. 33

34 Executive Summary Most popular sources of software were in-house development (25.3% of all software codes), followed by ISVs/other software companies (24.2%), Open source codes (23.2%), and Scientific community codes (20.0%) Largest proportion of the software was made up of ISV software (38.8% of all software), followed by Scientific community software (22.1%) Open source codes (17.1%). Computational Fluid Dynamics and Finite Element Analysis were the dominant computational patterns in priority applications. 34

35 Executive Summary MPI was the predominant programming model, followed by OpenMP for shared memory 15.5% - current applications would meet their requirements for the next 5 years. 38.9% - underlying mathematical model/algorithm needs to be improved. 31.2% - underlying science needs to be improved. 30% of the organizations named specific ways in which they now have to "dumb down" their problems in order to complete the runs in reasonable amounts of time 63% of the responses favored a high degree of involvement with NCSA/NSF in pursuing needed improvements. 35

36 Executive Summary 30% of the companies had to dumb down their problems to finish in reasonable times: Use coarser meshes Employ fewer elements Not fully exploit the known science Employ fewer time steps or reduce the length of the investigated timeframe Run more costly physical experiments 36

37 IDC 3-Year Global Study for DOE Economic Models For Measuring The Financial ROI and Innovation Associated with HPC Investments IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 37

38 Grant References The authors thank DOE for its insights and guidance on and funding of this grant-based research project This study is based upon work funded by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Office of Advanced Scientific Computing Research, and the National Nuclear Security Administration, under award number DE-SC DOE Program Managers: Christine Chalk, , and Barbara J. Helland, , U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science, Germantown Building, 1000 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C., , and Doug Wade in National Nuclear security Administration (NNSA). Administrator/Contracting Officer: Warren Riley, , U.S. Department of Energy Office of Acquisition and Assistance, 9800 South Cass Avenue, Argonne, Illinois, IDC Reporting: Principal investigator: Earl C. Joseph, Ph.D., , Senior technical project manager: John Daly, ,

39 Background: Three-Year Research Plan 2013 pilot study: Tested 3 approaches and set the models Populated the models with cases of scientific innovation and industrial ROI (this report now shows results for 329 cases) Created the innovation index Three-year study: sponsored by DOE Science/NNSA Refine the models to move from association towards causation Try to collect thousands of cases: Dense collection in the U.S. Sparser collection elsewhere (but still large)

40 Background: Project Overview A study that describes how HPC investments are related to improved economic success and increased scientific innovation The study includes large scale data collection to populate two unique models: 1. A macroeconomic model which depicts how HPC investments result in economic advancements in the form of ROI, growth and jobs 2. Two Innovation Indexes that measures and compares innovation levels, based on the level of applying HPC computing resources towards scientific and technical advancement

41 Innovation Models Used Two innovations indexes are used: 1. Based on the importance of the innovation 2. How broadly the innovations impact different organizations The innovations are also sorted by the primary area: 1. Better Products 2. Major Scientific Breakthrough 3. Cost Saving 4. Created New Approach 5. Discovered Something New 6. Helped Society 7. Helped Research Program

42 The Innovation Models Used Plus the innovations are sorted by: 1. Basic Research / Major Innovations 2. Applied Research / Incremental Innovations The Innovation models can be sorted for variances by: Industry sector Country Organization size Government, Industry and Academia

43 Latest Findings: The ROI From HPC is Very High New results indicate high ROI returns resulting from investments in HPC On average, from the latest data: $673 in revenue per dollar of HPC invested $44 of profits/cost savings per dollar of HPC invested HPC investment per innovation = $3.9M Note that an additional outcome of this research is an expansive list of HPC success stories 43

44 Sample Characteristics Sample demographics: As of May 1 st, 2016 we are at 329 case study examples of ROI and innovations: 114 financial ROI examples 215 innovation examples 44

45 New Findings: Job Creation Results continue to indicate very substantial job creation from investments in HPC: 2,756 jobs where created at 106 of these sites 45

46 New Findings: Financial ROI Model By Sector For 114 Sites That Created a Financial ROI 46

47 New Findings: By Industry 47

48 New Findings: Mix Of Innovation Types (For ALL 329 PROJECTS) 48

49 New Findings: Mix Of Innovation Types (For 114 FINANCIAL ROI PROJECTS) 49

50 New Findings: Mix Of Innovation Types (For 215 INNOVATION PROJECTS) 50

51 New Findings: 215 Innovations Basic vs. Applied 51

52 New Findings: 215 Innovations By Industry/Sector 52

53 Download Results: 53

54 Best Practices in HPC Public-Private Partnerships New IDC Study for NSF/NCSA (2016) IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 54

55 Rationale for Global Study NSCI tasks NSF to help "maximize the benefits of HPC for economic competitiveness and scientific discovery. NSCI Objective 5: ensure that the benefits of the R&D advances are, to the greatest extent, shared between the United States Government and industrial and academic sectors." Industry means primarily commercial users, not HPC vendors. Across the world, governments are asking national HPC centers to start/operate public-private partnership programs. Success is not easy many centers have little experience with industrial/commercial users. Merle Giles, NCSA, is PI and IDC is a subcontractor to NCSA. IDC will collect and analyze existing PPP practices what has worked well, what has not. NCSA will put this in a larger perspective. From legal frameworks to operating practices No comparison of centers each center s context may be different Information from interviews will be kept anonymous. Complete findings will be posted on NCSA website. We invite your participation (30+ centers worldwide have completed or scheduled interviews). IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 55

56 Interviewees National HPC centers (worldwide) Selected industrial/commercial users Government officials overseeing programs IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 56

57 National HPC Centers: Types of Relationships with Industrial HPC Users* 1: Science, No Industry 2: Science, PIs Bring Industry Collaborators 3. Industry Allocations for Open Science 4. Industry Allocations, Proprietary Work * Does not count relationships with HPC vendors. 57

58 Cyber Study: Status -- Final Report Due July 2016 Completed 62 Interviews with Cyber Security Experts 25 in-depth one-on-one interviews Four Focus Groups with 9-10 participants at each: Chicago New York Boston San Francisco IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 58

59 IDC Visit us at IDC.com and follow us on 59

60 Questions?

Update: HPC and Industry Steve Conway HPC User Forum University of Oxford September 29-30, 2016

Update: HPC and Industry Steve Conway HPC User Forum University of Oxford September 29-30, 2016 Market Growth HPC Moves into Industry (Examples) Government & Academic Research 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010