Russian forest sector and possibilities for future development

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1 Russian forest sector and possibilities for future development Dr. Eugene Lopatin, Senior Scientist, Bioeconomy Policies and Markets tel

2 Russia: huge resources, owned by government, low utilization of forest resources

3 Metsäsektorin kehittämisstrategia 2030 Hyväksyttiin lokakuussa 2018 Tavoitteena kaksinkertaistaa metsäsektorin osuus BKT:sta (nyk. 0,5 %) Tuotannon kasvupotentiaali Venäjällä: Hakkuut 34 % (+72 milj. m³) Sahatavara 44 % (+19 milj. m³) Vaneri 67 % (+2 milj. m³, josta puolet jo ilmoitettuja investointeja) Markkinasellu 523 % (+11 milj. t) Paperi ja kartonki 23 % (+2 milj. t)

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5 Venäjän sahatavaran vienti 1. Venäjä tuottaa vuosittain noin 40 miljoonaa kuutiometriä sahatavaraa, josta pääosa viedään ulkomaille. 2. Vuonna 2018 Venäjältä vietiin 32 miljoonaa kuutiometriä sahatavaraa, josta noin puolet Siperian federaatiopiiristä. 3. Kiina on suurin sahatavaran vientimaa, viimeisinä vuosina sen osuus on noussut yli 60 prosenttiin vientimäärästä. Source: 5 t-2017-/?news=view&newsid=

6 Comparison of quality of forest resources and forest management Finland Russia Artificial regeneration 80% 20% Soil preparation 100% 25% Saplings with close root system 100% 8% with improved origin >90% 4% Thinnings (from total amount of harvested wood) 40% <10%

7 Forest management: clear-cut of uneven-aged forests (max size 50ha) + natural regeneration without follow-up certified log mining

8 Potential areas for sustainable intensive forest management Demand for low quality wood Perspective

9 Factors influencing wood harvesting in Russia Driving forces for wood mobilization: Growing demand from China Low wood procurement costs Higher prices on export markets, lower volatility of foreign currecies (for example costs in roubles vs. sales in USD or EUR) The share stumpage fee in wood costs is less than 7% (wood for free) Growing domestic wood consumption (pellets, osb, newspaper) Limitations to increase wood harvesting: Long-term unsustainable forest management Decreasing quality of forest resources Increasing shortage of mature accessible forests Extensive «formal» forest management model since 1918 Lack of incentives for intensive forest management (myth on unlimited forest resources, state owned forests) 80% of forest inventory data is outdated Lack of knowledge on modern forestry

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11 1. The domestic price for birch plywood was reaching 235 euro/m3 in 2018, the new law to stop birch plywood export was approved. 2. Proposals to stop wood export till

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13 In 2018 Finland was the second biggest wood importer from Russia (5 mln.m3), China was importing 12 mln. m

14 Expected future changes Increasing amount of illegal logging due to drastic reduction of income in rural areas Concentration of wood resources among companies with Russian origin and certain big international companies Increasing competition with Russian forest companies on global markets Possible full stop or significant reduction in roundwood exports from Russia Increasing wood costs in Russia (lack of roads and mature forests along the roads, lack of forest regeneration, rotation period 120+ years) Large scale forest fires (lack of thinnings, climate change, the area of damaged forests increased 3 times during ) Intensive forest management will not exists in Russia (governmental owned forests, myth on unlimited forest resources) Lack of reliable information on forest resources (forest management data is outdated on huge area, NFI failed)

15 Opportunities for Finnish forest sector in Russia Wood import (high risks due to political changes) Import of low quality wood and wood fuels Market for: wood procurement machines knowledge on forest management and wood processing forest management and wood processing technologies new forest products and forest products with high added value Relatively cheap labor to perform thinnings in Finland

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17 Ongoing research projects in Luke related to Russian forest sector Bofori: Boosting Forest Cluster SME Business in two Karelias ( ) BioKarelia: Cross-border tools for biodiversity hotspots preservation via monitoring and prevention of forest fires along Russian-Finnish border ( ) InnoForestView: Innovative information technologies for analysis of negative impact on the cross-border region forests ( )