Policy and Market Brief

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C e n t e r f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l F o r e s t r y R e s e a r c h China s Wood Pulp Imports: A Summary of Recent Trends by Volume, Value and Country of Origin Christopher Barr, Ahmad

China s accelerated GDP growth since the mid-199s has driven a rapid increase in the country s demand for paper and paperboard, and a corresponding rise in demand for wood-based pulp and recovered

1 C e n t e r f o r I n t e r n a t i o n a l F o r e s t r y R e s e a r c h China s Wood Pulp Imports: A Summary of Recent Trends by Volume, Value and Country of Origin Christopher Barr, Ahmad Dermawan, and Dequan He Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) Over the past decade, China has emerged as a major force in the global pulp and paper market. China s accelerated GDP growth since the mid-199s has driven a rapid increase in the country s demand for paper and paperboard, and a corresponding rise in demand for wood-based pulp and recovered paper. Rapid growth in China s consumption of wood pulp two-thirds of which is imported has significant implications for pressures on forest resources both within China and in major supplier countries. Since the late-199s, China has accounted for over 6 % of the world s overall growth in market pulp shipments (Hawkins Wright 25). In 25, China s imports of paper-grade wood pulp totaled 7.2 million tonnes, valued at US$ 3.4 billion. Currently, China accounts for over 15. % of global pulp imports, up from less than 3. % in Major suppliers include: Indonesia, Brazil, Canada, and the Russian Federation. This brief summarizes recent trends in China s imports of paper-grade wood pulp, based on data obtained from the UN COMTRADE database. Imports of major grades of pulp are analyzed by volume, value, and country of origin. China s growing demand for wood pulp China s rapidly expanding demand for paper and paperboard has driven a correspondingly rapid increase in consumption of pulp and recycled paper. In 25, China s aggregate consumption of papermaking fiber reached 51.4 million tonnes up from 12.8 million tonnes in 199 (He and Barr 24). This total included 28.7 million tonnes (55.8 %) of recovered paper; 11.3 million tonnes (22. %) of paper-grade wood pulp; and 11.4 million tonnes (22.2 %) of nonwood pulp. China s growing demand for wood-based pulp has been driven, above all else, by the expansion of the nation s production capacity for printing and writing paper (Barr and Cossalter 24). The government has actively promoted the development of a domestic wood pulp industry; however, China s own production is still quite limited. Nearly 65 % of the wood pulp Chinese paper producers consumed in 25 was obtained through imports. Wood pulp imports 1995 to 25 Table 1 shows the changes in China s imports of paper-grade wood pulp by volume and value during the decade By aggregate volume, China s wood pulp imports grew by nearly 9 % during this period, increasing from 752, tonnes in 1995 to 7.2 million tonnes in 25. The combined value of wood pulp imports grew from US$ 61 million in 1995 to approximately US$ 3.4 billion in 25, representing an annual growth rate of 17.1 %.

2 2 Figure 1: Composition of China s paper-making fiber in 25 Domestic Recovered Paper 23% Domestic Nonwood Pulp 22% Imported Nonwood Pulp % Imported Recovered Paper 33% Domestic Wood Pulp 8% Imported Wood Pulp 14% The various grades of kraft pulp (i.e. soda/ sulphate chemical wood pulp) account for the vast majority of this increase. Bleached and unbleached kraft pulp together represent some 86 % of China s wood pulp imports both by volume and by value in 25. Import Trends by Grade of Wood Pulp The following sections summarize China s import trends for the major grades of wood pulp by country of origin. The data presented were obtained from the UN COMTRADE database. Bleached softwood kraft pulp Bleached softwood kraft pulp (BSKP) represents the single largest grade of wood pulp imported by China, accounting for 4 % of the nation s external wood pulp purchases. BSKP imports grew from 429, tonnes in 1995 to nearly 2.9 million tonnes in 25, valued at over US$ 1.4 billion. With its long fiber content, BSKP is commonly mixed with other types of pulp to add flexibility and strength to paper products. In 25, China obtained 83 % of its BSKP imports from four countries: Canada; the Russian Federation; Chile; and the United States. Shipping 1. million tonnes to Chinese buyers in 25, Canadian exporters currently supply 35 % of China s BSKP imports. Bleached hardwood kraft pulp Bleached hardwood kraft pulp (BHKP) is mainly used in the production of printing and writing paper. Driven by sharp increases in the production of books and magazines, advertising, and copy paper, China s imports of BHKP have grown Table 1: China s paper-grade wood pulp imports by volume (tonnes) and value (US$), Grade Volume % US$ Volume % US$ BSKP 429, % 353,334,727 2,894, % 1,467,28,271 BHKP 123, % 99,494,613 2,597, % 1,26,649,96 Semi-chemical 1,31.1% 78, ,87 12.% 359,458,32 UKP 93, % 73,813, , % 332,492,75 Mechanical 26, % 19,79,763 48,652.7% 25,567,352 Sulphite 77, % 63,615,537 4,78.6% 23,449,47 Total 752,356 1.% 61,756,999 7,214,432 1.% 3,468,646,42 Source: Note: UN COMTRADE Database BSKP = Bleached softwood kraft pulp; BHKP = Bleached hardwood kraft pulp; UKP = Unbleached kraft pulp.

3 3 Figure 2: China s BSKP imports by country of origin, (tonnes) 3, 3,, 2, 2,, 1, 1,, Canada Russian Federation Chile USA New Zealand Sweden Germany Finland Argentina Japan Others rapidly over the past decade. BHKP imports rose from 123, tonnes in 1995 to nearly 2.6 million tonnes in 25, valued at over US$ 1.2 billion. Over 75 % of China s BHKP imports are supplied by two countries: Indonesia and Brazil. Shipments from Indonesia reached 1.3 million tonnes, valued at US$ 643 million, in 25. A significant portion of China s imports of BHKP from Indonesia are structured as integrated sales by affiliates of the Asia Pulp & Paper (APP) and RGM 1 groups, each of which manages pulp mills in Indonesia and paper production facilities in China. China s BHKP imports from Brazil have quadrupled since 2 to reach 635, tonnes in 25, valued at US$ 314 million. This largely reflects increased sales of market pulp by Aracruz, which has acted strategically in recent years to expand its market share in China. Unbleached kraft pulp Unbleached kraft pulp (UKP) is used in a variety of applications for unbleached kraft paper, ranging from sack kraft to linerboard; for other applications, it must undergo a series of bleaching processes. China s imports of UKP grew from 93, tonnes in 1995 to 765, tonnes in 25, valued at US$ 332 million. The vast majority of this is made from softwood fiber. In 25, China obtained 75 % of its UKP imports from three countries: the United States; the Russian Federation; and Chile. Semi-chemical wood pulp Semi-chemical wood pulp is made through a combination of chemical and mechanical processes. Chemi-thermomechanical pulp (CTMP), for instance, involves a pulping process in which woodchips are chemically treated before they are heated and mechanically separated in a refiner. 2 When bleached, CTMP can compete with BHKP in some printing and writing and cartonboard applications and is widely used in the production of woodfree papers. In recent years, China s imports of semichemical pulp have grown very rapidly, rising from 1, tonnes in 1995 to 867, tonnes in 25, valued at US$ 359 million. Nearly 95 % of this comes from Canada and New Zealand, the world s largest suppliers of market BCTMP. Mechanical wood pulp Mechanical pulp is produced through a mechanical, as opposed to chemical, pulping process, and is used in the production of newsprint and publication grades of printing and writing papers. It currently accounts for less than 1. % of China s overall wood pulp imports. In 25, China imported only 48, tonnes of mechanical pulp, valued at US$ 25 million. Canada and New Zealand have been the largest suppliers in recent years.

4 4 Figure 3: China s BHKP imports by country of origin, (tonnes) 3, 3,, 2, 2,, 1, 1,, Indonesia Brazil Canada Russian Federation Chile USA Thailand Japan Finland New Zealand Others Figure 4: China s UKP imports by country of origin, (tonnes) 9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, USA Russian Federation Canada Portugal Others

5 5 Sulphite wood pulp Chemical wood pulp made with a sulphite process also represents only a very small portion of China s overall wood pulp imports, and the volume purchased from external sources has experienced an aggregate decrease during the period Imports of sulphite pulp dropped from 77, tonnes in 1995 to under 41, tonnes in 25. This decline can be attributed to the fact that sulphite pulp has become increasingly obsolete globally as it has been displaced by kraft pulps, which are more versatile and cost-effective. Medium-term outlook 3 A 24 study by He and Barr projects that China s demand for various grades of wood pulp will continue to increase at a rapid pace through at least although in aggregate terms, the volumes of wood pulp consumed will continue to be far exceeded by recovered paper (He and Barr 24). According to the study s baseline forecast, China s annual demand for wood pulp will grow by nearly 65% through the end of the decade, rising from 9.2 million tonnes in 23 to 15.1 million tonnes in 21. At that point, various grades of wood-based pulp will account for approximately one-quarter of the total fiber furnish utilized by China s paper and board producers. BHKP will likely be the fastest-growing segment of wood pulp demand, effectively doubling from 23 levels to reach 6.1 million tonnes in 21 (He and Barr 24). To a significant degree, this stems from the rapid growth of printing and writing paper production in China, which utilizes a relatively high proportion of virgin wood fiber compared to other grades. He and Barr anticipate that by 21, pulp producers located in China will supply just over 5% of the country s demand for BHKP, while the remainder will need to be imported. Demand for BSKP is projected to increase from 2.8 million tonnes in 23 to 4.3 million tonnes in 21. At that point, over 7% of China s demand for BSKP is likely to be supplied by imports. Figure 5: China s semi-chemical wood pulp imports by country of origin, (tonnes) 1,, 9, 8, 7, 6, 4, 3, 2, 1, Canada Germany New Zealand Indonesia Sweden Finland Norway Japan USA Others

6 6 Sources Barr, C. and Cossalter, C. 24. China s development of a plantation-based wood pulp industry: government policies, financial incentives, and investment trends. International Forestry Review, vol. 6 (3-4), Hawkins Wright, Ltd. 25. Defining the China Market for Pulp, Paper, and Board 25. Hawkins Wright: London. Endnotes 1 The RGM (or Raja Garuda Mas) group is affiliated with Asia Pacific Resources International Ltd (APRIL), the Singapore-based pulp and paper holding company. 2 See 3 This section has been extracted from He and Barr (24). The projections are on a proprietary model developed by China Economic Consulting, Inc. He, D. and Barr, C. 24. China s pulp and paper sector: an analysis of supply-demand trends and medium term projections. International Forestry Review, vol. 6 (3-4), UN COMTRADE Database [ Center for International Forestry Research, CIFOR Office address: Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sindang Barang Bogor Barat 1668, Indonesia. Mailing address: P.O. Box JKPWB, Jakarta 165 Indonesia Tel: +62(251) Fax: +62(251) cifor@cgiar.org Website: This brief has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Community through its Asia Pro Eco Programme and the United Kingdom s Department for International Development (DfID). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Commission or DfID.

Global Market Pulp Statistics

Global Market Pulp Statistics Bleached Kraft Pulp November Data 217 Global Statistics for Bleached Kraft Market Pulp The statistics in this file is based on EPIS (European Pulp Industry Sector) data, distributed