SYLVER Silviculture on Yield, Lumber Value, and Economic Return Tree And Stand Simulator TASS

Transcription

1 SYLVER Silviculture on Yield, Lumber Value, and Economic Return Tree And Stand Simulator TASS A cooperative project between the Province of British Columbia and the CWFC Jim Goudie Mario Di Lucca Ken Polsson Roberta Parish Amanda Nemec Ian Cameron 1

2 Outline Introduction SYLVER software suite TASS What goes in What comes out SAWSIM / Optitek New Economic module The Vision for the future 2

3 SYLVER - TASS History and Overview 1963 Ken Mitchell at Canadian Forest Service began development of TASS 1968 Yale University 1975 Monograph on Douglas-fir growth Foundation of TASS for the next 25 years Mid 1980s TIPSY NOT a model but Table Interpolation Program for Stand Yields 1980s, 1990s, 2000s - new species added 2009 CWFC funded development and upgrade of SYLVER software 3

4 SYLVER Environmental Factors Bucking Specs. Sawmill Layout Grading Specs. Costs and Prices Site Disease Insects Animals Log Value -Length -Diameter -Taper Quad band Arbor gang Edger Trimmer Knots Log diameter Juvenile/ Mature wood Forestry and harvesting Lumber, veneer, carbon, and chips Smart- TASS SAWSIM Grade Economist Interpret Axe Tree file Log file Lumber file Product file Evaluation file Decision Height Diameter Quality Length Diameter Quality Dimensions Juvenile wood, Veneer Graded Boards and Chips Revenue and Discounted Value Silvicultural treatments Planting Spacing Fertilizing Pruning Lumber Specs. Thickness Width Length Wane User imput Logging chance Discount rate Haul distance District TIPSY BatchTIPSY Timber supply model 4

5 TASS Individual tree growth based on 3-D spatial relationship with neighbouring crowns Crown growth drives competitive interactions Crown growth drives annual bole growth Measure of success is repeating the patterns of tree dimensions observed in historic yield experiments and plots Intended for application to management issues 5

6 Measurement Detail Individual Tree destructive analysis Crowns Branch extension -1 st Order - Higher order Branch diameters Foliage - Biomass distribution - Leaf Area & Specific Leaf Area Boles (Stems Boles (Stems) Height increment Ring width and area Sapwood area Earlywood Latewood -Ring density profiles -Microfibril angle -Tracheid length 6

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8 Measurements of branch length and branch extension used to determine crown profile, area and volume 8

9 Assessment of crown area minimum of 8 measurements of crown width at various locations around the perimeter. 9

10 Measurement Detail (What goes in) Validation Growth & Yield PSPs inventory monitoring G &Y Experiments plot-level statistics tree-level statistics crown measurements branch measurements upper stem diameters (taper & form) 10

11 Light model trayci Brunner 1998 Latitude 50 o N 11

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13 TASS What comes out Area Increment from Tree Measurements 4 Area increment (sq.mx1000) 3 2 Crown base Butt swell Length below top (m) 13

14 Area and diameter increments from tree measurements 4 Area increment (sq.mx1000) Diameter increment (cm) Crown base area diameter Length below top (m) 14

15 Average values by source and crown class Earlywood area inc./total area inc. Top Proportion Earlywood Relative density Latewood Earlywood -0.5 Center of foliar biomass Open grown Intermediate Relative distance to foliar centroid Codom. Dominant Crown class (no. trees) Open grown (7) Dominant (5) Codominant (3) Intermediate (3) Base

16 Stem Profile Juvenile Wood Mature Wood Clear Wood 16

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18 Knot modeling in TASS was restricted to knot size FIA funded development of a statistical model of bud distribution on lodgepole pine leaders A Gamma-Poisson model for vertical location and frequency of buds on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) leaders Amanda F. Linnell Nemec, James W. Goudie, and Roberta Parish, Canadian Journal Forest Research, October (10): CWFC funding extended the model to other species white spruce, coastal and interior Douglas-fir, western hemlock, amabilis fir (2009) Application of the model along the bole (2010) 18

19 Preliminary Results Faster growth more bud clusters on the leader BUT branch mortality low persistence Species (spruce, pine, amabilis) may have different patterns in the upper crown than in lower. Fewer bud primordia as trees get older but less growth Douglas-fir has simplest structure a single annual whorl for 19% (interior) and 17% (coastal) of internodes and over 40% of internodes >15 years old. 19

20 The observed vertical branch distributions are clearly non-uniform, varying with both species and age, and that this observation suggests fitting a continuous non-homogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) model to the data - underway currently. Future - distributions of knot number, location and size (diameter and area inside bark) will feed into sawmill simulators 20

21 SYLVER Sawmill Layout Quad band Arbor gang Edger Trimmer Grading Specs. Knots Log diameter Juvenile/ Mature wood Smart- TASS SAWSIM Grade Economist Interpret Axe Log file Lumber file Product file Decision Length Diameter Quality Dimensions Juvenile wood, Veneer Graded Boards and Chips Lumber Specs. Thickness Width Length Wane TIPSY BatchTIPSY Timber supply model 21

22 Since the 1980s SYLVER used SAWSIM developed by Howard Leach 1980s simulator based on a single coastal mill New version has coastal and interior mill configurations Capable of simulating sawing of dimensional lumber and veneer Optimum or manual bucking of stems Set wane rules for different sizes and products Saw kerfs and target sizes for different machines 22

23 Using the updated version and newly defined mill configurations increased simulated lumber recovery by about 10% and included the effect of sweep 23

24 Outputs include dimensional lumber OR veneer OR combination residual chips sawdust and hogfuel juvenile- mature wood content Note potential to modify for heartwood-sapwood 24

25 Using SAWSIM in SYLVER, requires separate grading rules based on knot size, FPInnovations sawmill simulator, Optitek, can handle knots. CT Scan from FPInnovations 25

26 Wireframe view of the stem, showing the product slices at each scaling position Textured transparent view of the stem with products shown inside Log constructed from test TASS stem and knot data supplied by Ken Polsson. Note that bole was bucked into four 8 ft logs prior to actual breakdown. Note that bole is sliced at irregular intervals, defined by the scaling data. Note that the sawmill configuration used was quite generic, and probably not optimal. Future work with FPInnovations will use our new model to predict knot location, frequency and size. 26

27 SYLVER Costs and Prices Forestry and harvesting Lumber, veneer, carbon, and chips Smart- TASS SAWSIM Grade Economist Interpret Axe Optitek Evaluation file Revenue and Discounted Value Decision User imput Logging chance Discount rate Haul distance District TIPSY BatchTIPSY Timber supply model 27

28 By 2009, the original economic module, FAN$Y, was nonfunctional Some functions had been incorporated into TIPSY Economist Suggestions for names for the new economist TIPSY Economist Application Providing Analysis Related to TASS Yields 28

29 Parent Application (TIPSY, TASS, SAWSIM ) USER Undertake growth and yield calculations Apply silviculture events Generate forest products Logs, lumber, byproducts Biomass, carbon Generate and send data file growth and yield data silviculture events products Economist Enter Costs (Default/local) Enter Values (Default/local) Economic and financial calculations Comparisons Interactive and batch modes On screen summaries On-line help Results Print reports Output file for spreadsheets (Excel) Output file for graphing Save/export Project file 29

30 Economic functions NPV IRR Benefit/Cost Site Value Sensitivity analysis Evaluation of alternate scenarios 30

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32 CWFC funding Improved assessment of wood quality through development of a model of knot location, frequency, and size in six species. Improved accuracy of estimates of dimensional lumber and added capacity to simulate veneer production. Completely new economic module to use with SYLVER or as stand-alone, includes capacity to value biomass and carbon, as well as traditional products. 32

33 Site and mill specific predictions of yield, product, and value Information from remote sensing TASS - Grow tree to harvest age Sawmill simulator products Evaluate economic return 33