Paris Agreement on Climate Change. International Climate Change and Energy Law, Spring semester 2016 Prof. Dr. Christina Voigt

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1 Paris Agreement on Climate Change International Climate Change and Energy Law, Spring semester 2016 Prof. Dr. Christina Voigt

2 In Paris, we have seen many revolutions. The most beautiful, most peaceful revolution has been achieved, a climate revolution. François Hollande, President of France (Paris, 12 December 2015)

3 What happened in Paris? COP21 (and CMP 11, SBSTA 43, SBI 43; ADP 2.11 ) Fulfill the Durban mandate, South Africa, COP 17 in 2011, to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties to be adopted at COP 21 and implemented from 2020 onwards France as host nation was the «COP presidency» 150 Heads of state and government Earth to Paris

4 What is the result? On the COP adopted a decision in which para 1 says: «The Conference of the Parties 1. Decides to adopt the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as contained in the annex;» Paris Outcome = Decision plus Agreement

5 What is the Paris Agreement? A legally-binding treaty according to the VCLT Comes into force 30 days after at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting for at least 55% of global GHG emissions have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval..(art. 21) Contains legally binding obligations (»shall») and provisions that are not legally binding («Inivited»/»Encouraged»/»Should») Indications of legal bindingness: Final clauses, compliance mechanism

6 5 Must-know Facts 1. Goals: «well under 2 degrees», 1.5 degress, «zero net emissions» 2. NDCs: Nationally Determined Contributions 3. Obligations for all «diversified differentiation» 4. Enhanced Transparency Framework 5. «Ratcheting up»: dynamic, iterative processes (5 year cycles, stock-take) and principles (progression and highest possible ambition)

7 GOALS Global temperature goal(s): «holding the increase in global temperature to well below 2 degrees C and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees C» (Art. 2) Mid and long-term mitigation goals: Global peaking asap (recognizing that this will take longer for developing countries) and rapid reductions thereafter to achieve «a balance between anthropogenic emissions and removals in the second half of this century» (Art. 3, socalled «net zero emission) Adaptation goal «enhancing adaptive capacity, strengthening resilience and reducing vulnerability» (Art. 7) Finance goal: collective, quantified goal of developed countries from a floor of USD 100 billion per year (para 54)

8 Question Analyse Article 4: Which legal obligations can you identify? Who has which obligation?

9 OBLIGATIONS FOR ALL «Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions» (Art. 4.2) «Each Party shall pursue domestic measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions.» (Art. 4.2) «all Parties shall provide information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding» (Art. 4.8) «Each Party shall communicate a NDC every five years» (Art. 4.9) Each Party s successive NDC will represent a progression beyond current NDC and reflect its highest possible level of ambition. (Art.4.3) «Parties shall account for their NDCs In accounting, Parties shall promote environmental integrity, transparency, accuracy, completeness, comparability and consistency..» (Art. 4.13) «Each Party shall regularly provide information on national inventories and information necessary to track progress made in implemenating and achieving its NDC..» (Art. 13.7) «Each Party shall engage in adaptation planning (Art. 7.1)

10 DYNAMISM NDCs every 5 years (Art. 4.9) Progression and Highest possible ambition Global stocktake to assess collective progress towards achieving the purpose and long-term goals every 5 years (Art. 14) First stock take in 2023, new round of NDCs in 2025, next stock take in 2028, next NDCs in Outcome of the stocktake shall inform Parties in updating and enhancing their actions and support (Art. 14.3) Parties submit NDCs at least 9-12 months in advance

11 Highest possible ambition st NDC st stocktake nd NDC nd stocktake rd NDC 5 year-»cycles»

12 TRANSPARENCY Establishment of an «enhanced transparency framework» for action and support With built-in flexibility Build on existing arrangements for reporting and review CMA to adopt «common modalities, procedures and guidelines» at its first session

13 Question How is the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities reflected in the agreement?

14 Diversified DIFFERENTIATION Most obligations apply to all countries No bifurcated differentiation (no Annexes) Agreement reflects «common but differentiated responsibilities, in light of different national circumstances» Each Party s NDC will represent a progression beyond current efforts and reflect its highest possible level of ambition (Art.4.3) Developed countries undertake absolute economy-wide targets, developing countries enhance their efforts over time and are encouraged to move towards economy-wide targets (Art.4.4)

15 HIGHEST POSSIBLE AMBITION (content) How much needs to be done? Reflecting : - Responsibilities - Capabilites - Circumstances Figure 1: Level of effort and progression For each successive NDC, a Party has an obligation of conduct, a duty of care, to move upwards on its ambition level and towards to the right, along the red progression graph; developed countries should start at the upper right side of the red graph and move upwards on their level of ambition. Example of four successive NDCs of a developing country Party X Strategies, plans and actions Enhanced efforts Economy-wide reduction or limitation targets Economy-wide absolute reduction targets TYPE OF TARGET (form) OVER TIME What needs to be done?

16 HIGHEST POSSIBLE AMBITION (content) How much needs to be done? Reflecting Parties': - Responsibilities - Capabilites - Circumstances Figure 2: Differentiation Each Party's NDC will reflect its highest possible amibition (y-axis) and correspond to the types of targes set out in articles 4.4 and 4.6 (for LDCs and SIDS) (x-axis). Such parameter-based determination of mitigation efforts leads to more diversified differentiation each time a successive NDC is being communicated. LDC & SIDs Developing countries Developed countries Strategies, plans and actions Enhanced efforts Economy-wide reduction or limitation targets Economy-wide absolute reduction targets TYPE OF TARGET (form) What needs to be done?

17 Some further details Finance REDD+ Loss and Damage Compliance Markets Human Rights

18 Finance (Art. 9) Developed countries shall provide financial resources to developing countries (4.2 UNFCCC) Other parties are encouraged to provide such support voluntarily As part of the global effort, developed countries should continue to take the lead in mobilizing climate finance from a wide variety of sources; progression

19 REDD+ (Art. 5.2) Parties are encouraged to take action to implement and support the exisiting framework for REDD+

20 Loss and damage (Art. 8) Cooperation and facilitation to enhance understanding, action and support Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage continues «Agrees that article 8 of the agreement does not involve or provide a basis for any liablity or compensation» (para 52)

21 Compliance (Art. 15) Establishment of a mechanism to facilitate implementation of and compliance with the provision of the agreement Committee (expert-based, 12 members, while taking into account gender balance, para 103) Non-adversarial and non-punitive CMA to adopt modalities and procedures at 1st session

22 Markets (Art. 6) Element 1: Voluntary cooperative approaches that involve the use of internationally transferable mitigation outcomes (ITMOs) Element 2: Market mechanism By public and private entities Verified and certified emissions reductions Learning from experiences with emissions trading, CDM, JI Element 3: Non-market mechanism

23 Human Rights (Preamble) «Parties should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights, the right to health, the rights of indigenous peoples, local communities, migrants, children, persons with disabilities and people in vulnerable situations and the right to development, as well as gender equality, empowerment of women and intergenerational equity,»

24 Questions 1. What can the Paris Agreement deliver and how? 2. How effective will it be in holding temperature increases well below 2 degrees celsius? And how fair? 3. Is it historic?

25 Is it historic? 197 Parties of the UNFCCC adopted the PA Diversified differentiation Stronger transparency Strong legal form Buttom-up with international «pull», flexibility and dynamism Reflexive: Improves the capacity of Parties to learn about themselves and periodically take further actions More resilient, durable, effective

26 Some impressions

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34 See for images