Redistricting Technology. By Kimball Brace Election Data Services, Inc.

Transcription

1 Redistricting Technology By Kimball Brace Election Data Services, Inc.

2 Legislators Raise you hands Keep them raised if you were in Legislature in 2000? Staff Raise you hands Keep them raised if you were involved in redistricting in 2001?

3 Cameras do not make the pictures, Photographers do

4 What does Photography have to do with Redistricting? A wise man once said: Computers are just a tool. George Meier Staff Director, Florida House Redistricting Cmte. Software can t create a plan, Humans do

5 History of Redistricting Technology 1980 Mainframe PC s were not invented until 1981 Paper Maps GIS was mainframe only First PC GIS system created in 1983 Developed by Jimmy Carter s son Blocks in urban areas (provided block numbers didn t fall off map) Enumeration Districts in rural areas Best commodities: Large wall space Lots of acetate Had to wait overnight to see impact of plan drafting Software cost: $60-100K Created 10s of plans during legislative session

6 History of Redistricting Technology 1990 Mini-computers and limited PCs GDT s GeoDistrict Program First spatial spreadsheet Illinois wired together two PCs to get a 25mhz system large enough to show entire state First TIGER files used Came out in 1989 Tied together the urban DIME files with USGS data in rural areas Had block level data for entire nation, first time Best commodities: Large plotters No longer needed color pencils Got to see color concentrations on computer Red areas vs blue areas Minority concentration Lead to crazy looking district shapes Got immediate (dependent upon processing speed) response of district characteristics Software cost $10K Created 100s of plans during legislative session

7 History of Redistricting Technology 2000 PCs widely used Current software creators got their start in redistricting Caliper Maptitude for Redistricting Digital Engineering Corp Now citygategis -- autobound TIGER files still in use Databases got bigger Multi-race categories ballooned race data from 12 columns in 1990 to 336 in 2000 More election results SF1 & 3 files came out quicker, added demographic characteristics Hispanic sub-groups Citizenship Best Commodities: Hard disk space Thank heavens if was getting cheaper Colorization of political data Lead to crazy looking districts for political purposes Very quick response on district characteristics Software cost: $3K Created ~1000s plans during legislative session

8 History of Redistricting Technology 2010 PCs and networked GIS? Fast speed of getting graphic images to monitor Smaller devices to see maps Revise your glasses prescription now Same two vendors TIGER files Adjusted for ground truth Allows for aerial photographs to be used as background Members finally see that church on the corner States can put in real precincts, no longer have to follow block boundaries Databases more complex Statewide voter registration files Election process changing as more absentee & early votes being cast Census ACS data can add more demographics sooner New ways to determine communities of Interest How to Deal with 1, 3, & 5 year averages?

9 History of Redistricting Technology 2010 Best Commodities People Support? Response time for district characteristics? Software costs early indications: ~$10K Inflation Vendors realized more support needed How many plans will we create? Heaven help us all

10 Lessons Learned. The Hard Way Don't design and build the plane as it's rolling down the runway. Start planning now. The sooner you get behind, the longer you have to catch-up An error here, can sink your whole ship Database building -- Most important activity of whole process

11 Redistricting Data Cube Type of Data Tabular Spatial TIGER/Line Files Redistricting Summary (PL ) & ACS Files Census Precinct and Electoral District Boundaries Election Returns and Voting Statistics Political Source of data Election Data Services, Inc.

12 New TIGER problems

13 Election Returns Issues Change in precinct configurations over decade Impact of voting equipment purchases on precinct configurations Dramatic reduction in number of precincts Will you have enough returns for area? Impact of vote centers on return data Don t make Colorado s mistake before they changed their law to require data reported by precinct.

14 Data Possibilities Availability of Statewide Voter Registration files Geo-code down to block. Accuracy, Everyone placed? Is state archiving a copy of file to correspond with election day?

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16 Turn-out Still don t know total number of people who participated in 2004 general election. Definitions of turn-out, ballots cast, ballots counted. 903 Jurisdictions in 21 states have same number of people turning out, as that voted for President of the US

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22 Returns Issue How is this data being reported in your state? Do your counties report all absentee and/or early votes in a single countywide precinct? Or Do they distribute the votes out to the precincts? You want the latter.

23 Closing Learn from History If I m going to make a mistake, let it be an original one. I haven t learned anything if I make the same error that someone else already made Marie Garber Montgomery County, Md Elections Director

24 Thank you Kimball Brace President Election Data Services, Inc Emerywood Court Manassas, VA ( or ) or