ČT24, LIVE BROADCAST, 21 OCTOBER

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1 ČT24, LIVE BROADCAST, 21 OCTOBER 2017 ELECTION REPORT

2 CZECH PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS: A NEW ORDER This weekend, Czechs cast their votes in a general election and, to the surprise of many, the country has followed the latest international trend by turning its back on the political establishment. The ANO, a political party headed by the Czechoslovak billionaire Andrej Babiš, took the country by storm and netted nearly 30% of all votes, a result last achieved by a single party ten years ago. Despite having just served a full election term as part of the government, Mr Babiš managed to convince the electorate that he represents the anti-establishment wing against the old dinosaur, and blamed everyone else for waging a massive campaign of disinformation against the ANO movement". STAN TOP 09 KDU-ČSL KSČM ČSSD SPD Piráti ODS ANO Number of seats elections 2017 elections Meanwhile, the ANO s former coalition partner the largest left-wing political party, the Social Democrats suffered a devastating defeat by taking just 15 seats, compared to 50 in This election marks a clear shift towards catch-all politics and a departure from the right-left mentality dominating Czech politics over the past quarter of a century. Turnout was almost 61%, an average result compared to past years. The SPD (Freedom and Free Democracy Party), an anti-immigrant and proreferendum party led by Tomio Okamura, a Czech national of Japanese origin, gained 10% of the vote. As a Czech journalist pertinently observed, in a country where only 12 immigrants were accepted based on EU immigration quotas, 22 seats are now held by an anti-immigrant party. 2

3 The right-of-centre ODS is back from the dead, happy to pick up a modest 11% in this election. Far from past glory, yet enough to come second this time. Another winner was the Pirates, who, along with liberalism funs, definitely have reason to celebrate: their 10.7% is literally a from-zero-to-hero achievement. The Social Democrats (ČSSD), currently the principal coalition government party, on the other hand, are now experiencing first-hand the fate of their former arch-rival, the ODS, in the last elections. The lame 7% will inevitably result in a change of party leadership, but the party already seems to have used up all possible options as three of the management representatives are the prime minister, the campaign leader and the interim party chairman. An alternative would be the return of renegades such as Zdeněk Škormach, Jiří Zimola and Michal Hašek. The Chamber of Deputies left wing will be all but deserted, as the Communists ended up with only 7.7%, well below what they had been angling for. The three last parties to make it into parliament will represent the centre and liberal democracy. The Christian Democrats (KDU-ČSL), TOP-09 and the STAN, all with 5%, will hold 10, 7 and 6 seats, respectively, to round off the next Chamber of Deputies. Of these, only the STAN has a smile on its face, having managed to get into the lower chamber for the first time. The KDU-ČSL and TOP-09 are counting casualties. Overall, this Chamber of Deputies is going to be more fragmented than ever, with nine parties occupying the house. Given their ideological span, ranging from the far-right to the far-left, we can also expect centripetal tendencies and less willingness to reach a general consensus. In other words, every vote will count and the exact threshold during plenary sessions will matter a lot. 3

4 FACTS & FIGURES A record nine parties made it into the Chamber of Deputies. This will make the Chamber more fragmented than ever, especially when we consider the ideological differences between the individual parties, ranging from the far-right to the far-left. The Chamber will become younger; the post-election average age of the MPs is 47 years and has been brought down in particular by young Pirate representatives. 30 MPs are under 35 years old MPs by gender Men Women 43 There will be 157 men vs. 43 women representing the nation. 157 Share of new MPs There will be new 121 MPs. New MPs 79 Old MPs 121 Share of votes ANO ODS Piráti SPD ČSSD 5,31 5,18 5,8 7,76 29,64 KSČM KDU-ČSL 7,27 TOP 09 STAN 10,64 10,79 11,32 4

5 WHAT NEXT Even before the polling stations had closed, President Miloš Zeman declared that he would task the winner of the elections with the formation of a government. This was Andrej Babiš, whose alliance with President Zeman is well known. At the same time, the President added that he was going to use the full 30-day period at his disposal to nominate a government negotiator. This is a tactical step as the deadline to nominate presidential candidates is 17 November and the President wants to discourage ANO from nominating a strong rival candidate. There are whispers that Andrej Babiš may become President in exchange for relinquishing his chance of becoming Prime Minister, but we deem this scenario very unlikely. The President also pre-emptively condemned any attempt to delay the establishment of the new Chamber, a strategy which may be pursued by Mr Babiš s opposition in order to boycott the formation of the government. On the other hand, all those who want to see Andrej Babiš behind bars now face a dilemma. The Chamber of Deputies released Mr Babiš for prosecution over a scandal with EU subsidies last month, but he has now regained parliamentary immunity as a newly elected MP. Therefore, the process to remove his immunity will have to start again, which is impossible unless the Chamber is formally established. The ANO movement announced that it wants to meet all parliamentary parties to discuss the future of the Chamber. However, on account of the prospect of criminal prosecution hanging over Mr Babiš and ANO s second-in-command, Jaroslav Faltýnek, all the parties bar the Communists have ruled out the possibility of sitting in a coalition for as long as its leaders face prosecution. Therefore, either someone will have to change their mind in return for the pledge of a lucrative political deal, or Mr Babiš will have to find a formal replacement to assume the office of Prime Minister instead of him. In this regard, many envision a model similar to the behindthe-scenes leadership employed by the Polish PiS. Whether Andrej Babiš is able to settle for a fate like Jarosław Kaczyński s remains to be seen. We estimate that the government-formation process will take weeks to months, so do not expect a new government to be formed until Christmas is well on the way. 5

6 CONTACT Radka Lang Head of Public Affairs Grayling Czech Republic T: E: Radka.Lang@grayling.com 6