The ArcticNet IRIS 1 Regional Impact Assessment: A tool to bridge science and policy in the Western and Central Canadian Arctic

Transcription

1 The ArcticNet IRIS 1 Regional Impact Assessment: A tool to bridge science and policy in the Western and Central Canadian Arctic Session Linking Science and Policy Towards Environmentally Sustainable Development G.A. Stern 1,2, A. Gaden 1 1 University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada 2 Freshwater Institute, Winnipeg, Canada

2 IRIS = Integrated Regional Impact Study An IRIS combines and summarizes all available knowledge of a region affected by change. This knowledge is used to produce a prognosis of the magnitude and socioeconomic impacts and benefits of change. e.g. Studies undertaken by ArcticNet scientists, Inuit organizations, government agencies and other stakeholders all contribute towards developing climate change knowledge. e.g. ArcticNet undergoes a consultative process with stakeholders to develop a climate change regional impact assessment based on both documented and projected (modelled) changes. An IRIS helps to facilitate better accessibility of knowledge

3 IRIS Leaders IRIS 1: Gary Stern (DFO, U of M) IRIS 2: Trevor Bell (Memorial University, Newfoundland) IRIS 3: David Barber (U of M) IRIS 4: Michel Allard (Université Laval)

4 The The IRIS IRIS process process: towards towards developing making knowledge a regional useable impact assessment for all 6. Analyse the prognosis with stakeholders and start over 1.Identify regional environmental, health and societal vulnerabilities 5. Use scenarios by RCMs to provide insights into future environmental, health, & societal vulnerabilities Consultation at every step (with IRIS steering committees and other stakeholders) 2. Document past and present changes in climate and in different components of the regional environment 4. Downscale General Circulation Models to Regional Climate Models (RCMs) 3. Identify linkages between environmental change and health/societal impacts

5 The Regional Impact Assessments (RIAs) The goal of the assessments is to make knowledge understandable and available to everyone, but particularly for resource managers, decision makers at all political levels, and other stakeholders. The RIAs aim to provide policy and research recommendations for climate change adaptation planning and sustainable development.

6 What has been done towards the IRIS 1 RIA so far? 1) Steering Committee established (2010): Members sit on regional and national/international Inuit organizations. Meetings are conducted on an as-needed basis with Gary and Ashley (~3-4 times per year) Committee members guide the development of the RIAs to ensure the topics are relevant to the regions. Typically committee members will have had experience with policy issues and policy development. Once the science chapters are written, the IRIS steering committees work with the lead authors to help formulate policy and research recommendations from the scientific prognosis.

7 Stephanie Powell-Hellyer (UNBC) 2) Feedback for assessment gathered: IRIS 1 workshop: held April 11-17, 2011 in Inuvik Part science forum, part workshop Over 100 people in attendance representing 28 organizations Participants addressed regional climate change priorities that should be included in the IRIS 1 RIA Climate change impacts and priorities in both the Kitikmeot and ISR were researched from the literature

8 3) Outline developed for RIA (May-August 2011): The outline is based on feedback from the workshop and literature and was approved by the IRIS 1 steering committee members. The outline is divided into 4 parts: Part 1: Overview of IRIS 1 sets the stage for the rest of the assessment (e.g. Socio-economies in the Kitikmeot and ISR) written with regional contribution Part 2: Climate variability and projections analysis of past and recent climate trends climate projections to year 2050 Part 3: Priority issues of adaptation (7 supporting scientific chapters) Part 4: Factors of Adaptation Synthesis of Findings

9 Part 3: 7 supporting scientific chapters: Chapter 1: Terrestrial and Freshwater Systems Chapter 2: Impacts on Marine Ecosystems Chapter 3: Human Health Chapter 4: Safety in Navigation and Transportation Chapter 5: Impacts to Infrastructure Chapter 6: Food and Cultural Security Chapter 7: Resource Development

10 Ice road linking Inuvik, NT with Tuktoyaktuk and Aklavik, NT (March 2011) Chapter 5: Impacts to Infrastructure Example : Transportation infrastructure Questions to be addressed: To what degree will melting sea ice affect ice roads in the future? To what extent will this increase water-based transportation opportunities? Will harbours or ports need to be relocated in light of coastal erosion and instability? What new technologies or materials might be needed to address future infrastructure needs?

11 Chapter 7: Resource Development Example : Mineral exploration and extraction Questions to be addressed: How extensive will permafrost melt and potential slumping be in the region? What is the viability of mines in these scenarios? What adaptation measures can Inuit organizations and landclaim/territorial government agencies undertake in anticipation of increased economic development and associated stresses upon social life and culture? Lupin gold mine in Nunavut ( Operational from and

12 Chapter 7: Resource Development (continued) Example : Hydrocarbon activities Questions to be addressed: What are the gaps and challenges related to hydrocarbon development in the Beaufort Sea? What are the impacts of hydrocarbon development (and other marine traffic) on bowhead and beluga whales, two important country foods in the Beaufort Sea? Exxon Valdex oil spill, Alaska (1989) (

13 Where we re at now: The Writing Process Lead authors and writing teams were contacted and assembled in the fall, 2011 A first draft of the RIA was prepared for the IPY-Montreal conference. This was reviewed at the steering committee meeting with lead authors on April 22, Climate projections will be incorporated into the second draft. The final version is scheduled for publication in 2013.

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