Findings: Indigenous Peoples, Lands and Resources

Transcription

1 Third National Climate Assessment Findings: Indigenous Peoples, Lands and Resources T. M. Bull Bennett PhD Kiksapa Consulting, LLC Food Energy Water Nexus Workshop 19 October, 2015

2 Key Messages from NCA 3 The NCA3 is the largest and most comprehensive evaluation of climate change and impacts in the United States Americans across the country are feeling the effects extreme weather, sea level rise, heavy downpours, heat waves There is evidence in all regions and sectors that climate change is happening now There are important opportunities to manage what is causing climate change and prepare for its effects

3 Report Findings Water: Water quality and water supply reliability are jeopardized by climate change in a variety of ways that affect ecosystems and livelihoods. Trends in Flood Magnitude per Decade 100 Degree Days, 2011 Scott Olson/Getty Images

4 Report Findings Ecosystems: Ecosystems and the benefits they provide to society are being affected by climate change. The capacity of ecosystems to buffer the impacts of extreme events like fires, floods, and severe storms is being overwhelmed. Fisheries Shifting North

5 What s New since NCA 1? Projected Precipitation by Season (CMIP 5) NCA3 projected precipitation changes are greatly refined (NCA1 had two models and one scenario, NCA3 has more than a dozen models and multiple scenarios; models have improved considerably since the late 1990s). Both CMIP3 and CMIP5 show the southern parts of the SW region drying.

6 What s New since NCA 1? Observed precipitation changes more consistent; drying in the SW, northern Rockies and SE, and more wetness elsewhere. The NCA1 map of observed precipitation change showed much more variability.

7 What s New since NCA 1? Sea level rise in the NCA1 was inches by the end of the century, NCA3 has a projected range of inches and a possible rise of up to 6.6 feet. Past and Projected Changes in Global Sea Level NOAA

8 What s New since NCA 1? The NCA1 projection had a summer time ice free Arctic by the end of the 21st century, or beyond depending on the model, but the NCA3 projects this occurring by the middle of the 21st century.

9 Report Findings Indigenous peoples: Climate change poses particular threats to Indigenous Peoples health, wellbeing, homes, and ways of life. Chronic stresses such as extreme poverty are exacerbated by heat and drought Wild rice has been a Traditional staple in the Great Lakes Impacts in Alaska include damage to infrastructure due to melting permafrost

10 Indigenous Peoples, Lands, and Resources peoples Convening Lead Authors T.M. Bull Bennett, Kiksapa Consulting, LLC Nancy G. Maynard, National Aeronautics and Space Administration and University of Miami Lead Authors Patricia Cochran, Alaska Native Science Commission Robert Gough, Intertribal Council on Utility Policy Kathy Lynn, University of Oregon Julie Maldonado, American University, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Garrit Voggesser, National Wildlife Federation Susan Wotkyns, Northern Arizona University Contributing Authors Karen Cozzetto, University of Colorado at Boulder

11 Indigenous Populations Extend beyond Reservation Lands

12 Many Tribes, Many Climate Change Initiatives

13 Key Message 1: Forests, Fires, and Food Observed and future impacts from climate change threaten Native Peoples access to traditional foods such as fish, game, and wild and cultivated crops, which have provided sustenance as well as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community health for generations.

14 Forests, Fires, and Food Observed and future impacts from climate change threaten Native Peoples access to traditional foods such as fish, game, and wild and cultivated crops, which have provided sustenance as well as cultural, economic, medicinal, and community health for generations.

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16 Key Message 2: Water Quality and Quantity A significant decrease in water quality and quantity due to a variety of factors, including climate change, is affecting drinking water, food, and cultures. Native communities vulnerabilities and limited capacity to adapt to water related challenges are exacerbated by historical and contemporary government policies and poor socioeconomic conditions.

17 Water Quality and Quantity A significant decrease in water quality and quantity due to a variety of factors, including climate change, is affecting drinking water, food, and cultures. Native communities vulnerabilities and limited capacity to adapt to water related challenges are exacerbated by historical and contemporary government policies and poor socioeconomic conditions.

18 Percent change from 2005 to 2060 in projected withdrawals assuming no change in climate (left) and continued growth in heat trapping gas emissions (A2 scenario, right). The effects of climate change, primarily associated with increasing temperatures, are projected to significantly increase water demand across most of the U.S. (Foti et al. 2012). 18

19 Sand Dune Expansion

20 Key Message 3: Declining Sea Ice Declining sea ice in Alaska is causing significant impacts to Native communities, including increasingly risky travel and hunting conditions, damage and loss to settlements, food insecurity, and socioeconomic and health impacts from loss of cultures, traditional knowledge, and homelands.

21 Declining Sea Ice Declining sea ice in Alaska is causing significant impacts to Native communities, including increasingly risky travel and hunting conditions, damage and loss to settlements, food insecurity, and socioeconomic and health impacts from loss of cultures, traditional knowledge, and homelands.

22 Greater than 1.2 million miles ^2 decline in average summer sea ice since 1980 Already seeing activities using the Northwest Passage Loss of biodiversity Severe Threat to subsistence living NCADAC ES Meeting 22

23 Arctic Marine Food Web

24 Key Message 4: Permafrost Thaw Alaska Native communities are increasingly exposed to health and livelihood hazards from increasing temperatures and thawing permafrost, which are damaging critical infrastructure, adding to other stressors on traditional lifestyles.

25 Permafrost Thaw Alaska Native communities are increasingly exposed to health and livelihood hazards from increasing temperatures and thawing permafrost, which are damaging critical infrastructure, adding to other stressors on traditional lifestyles.

26 Thawing Permafrost in Alaska

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28 Key Message 5: Relocation Climate change related impacts are forcing relocation of tribal and indigenous communities, especially in coastal locations. These relocations, and the lack of governance mechanisms or funding to support them, are causing loss of community and culture, health impacts, and economic decline, further exacerbating tribal impoverishment.

29 Relocation Climate change related impacts are forcing relocation of tribal and indigenous communities, especially in coastal locations. These relocations, and the lack of governance mechanisms or funding to support them, are causing loss of community and culture, health impacts, and economic decline, further exacerbating tribal impoverishment.

30 Photos above from 2005 show infrastructure damage from coastal erosion in Shishmaref, Alaska. Photographs by Tony Weyiouanna and Gary Braasch. Kivalina, AK showing vulnerability of Inuit community to sea level rise. Photographs courtesy of Daily Kos. 30

31 Relocation

32 Report Findings: Coasts Coastal lifelines, such as water supply infrastructure and evacuation routes, are increasingly vulnerable to higher sea levels and storm surges, inland flooding, and other climate related changes. Gulf Coast Transportation Hubs at Risk

33 Isle de Jean Charles, LA

34 Map of area in 1940 Map of area Today

35 Photo by Julie Maldonado. Created by M. Reddy Avula

36 Recommendations for the NCA Engagement With Indigenous Peoples and Honoring Traditional Knowledge Systems by J Maldonado, TMB Bennett, KChief, P Cochran, K Cozzetto, B Gough, M Hiza Redsteer, N Maynard, K Lynn, G Voggesser (in press, Climatic Change) Institute a dedicated Indigenous Peoples, Land, and Resources Chapter in future NCAs Provide financial resources for Indigenous representatives to effectively participate in the NCA Provide networking support for Indigenous groups Produce an NCA Special Report on Indigenous Peoples, Land, and Resources Build capacity for adaptation Honor and recognize the value of traditional knowledges

37 Third National Climate Assessment Climate Change Impacts in the United States #NCA2014

38 United States at Night

39 United States at Night Which City is this???

40 As long as we continue to believe these activities are OK, then there will be no significant solutions or changes in the paradigm.

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