Adaptation to climate change: it may be a matter of survival!

Transcription

1 SPEECH/07/457 Stavros Dimas Member of the European Commission, responsible for environment Adaptation to climate change: it may be a matter of survival! Adapting to Climate Change Conference Launching a public debate on options for EU Action 3rd July Charlemagne Building - Brussels

2 Ladies and gentlemen, Climate change is one of the biggest challenges that will face humanity in the next 100 years. And to deal with climate change, policy makers have to address two distinct but fundamentally linked issues. The first is keeping temperature increases limited so that we can avoid catastrophic climate change. This means that we will have to stabilise global emissions within the next decade or so, and then cut them to around half of 1990 levels by the middle of this century. The European Union's objective is to limit global warming to the relatively safe level of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. That is why the European Union is pressing hard for a new global climate change agreement that promises deep emissions cuts. However, it is simply not possible to reverse climate conditions quickly. Even if the world stopped emitting greenhouse gases tomorrow the climate would still continue to change for many decades to come. In short, we need to reduce greenhouse gases in order "to avoid the unmanageable". But we also need to adapt in order "to manage the unavoidable". Even if we manage to prevent catastrophe, climate change is a force that will change societies, change economies and change politics as surely as other forces such as globalisation. We need to recognise the power of this force, we need to understand it as well as we possibly can and we need to make the changes to prepare for it. This is what "adaptation" is about. And although this is one of the first international conferences on the theme of climate adaptation, the need to adapt will be a central part of our lives for decades - or even longer. Adaptation is already a here and now issue The International Panel on Climate Change projections look towards the end of the century. This may seem like a reassuringly long time away especially if we choose to forget that our actions today are creating intolerable living conditions for the future. But the truth is that climate change is already happening. Europe has warmed by almost 1 degree in the past century and the effects are becoming clearer by the day. This means that adaptation is not an abstract question that we can put off any longer. It is a here and now issue. Only last week saw a heat wave in south-east Europe that killed 38 people. Temperatures reached up to 45 degrees Celsius in Italy, Greece and Romania. At the same time, torrential rain caused severe flooding in England and Wales that forced thousands of people out of their homes and cost over 1 billion in damages. In some places it is a literally a question of 'adapt or die' - for people, for biodiversity as well as for businesses. We are already experiencing the impact of extreme weather. Rain and snowfall have increased significantly in northern Europe while drought is becoming more frequent in southern Europe. We may not have hurricanes in Europe, but these changes are already having major implications for sectors such as agriculture, energy, transport, housing, health-care and tourism. Almost no part of the economy will remain untouched. 2

3 Adaptation in practice / costs What does adaptation mean in practice? It means anticipating the effects of climate change and being prepared for them so we can limit their adverse impacts. Let me give some examples: Adaptation means finding ways to use water more efficiently in areas where it is becoming scarce. It means developing crops that can tolerate drought, so that agriculture can continue in affected areas of southern Europe. It means ensuring that the frail and elderly are properly looked after during heatwaves and being ready for the spread of tropical diseases into Europe. It means strengthening coastal flood defences and not building on floodplains. It means setting aside land corridors to help plant and animal species migrate, so that the ecosystems, which form the web of all life, are not destroyed. Responsibility to act There are three reasons why today's generation has a clear responsibility to act. The first reason is a moral argument. It was the economic activities over the past 50 years which resulted in the vast majority of greenhouse gas emissions. We have caused the problem and we cannot simply leave it to future generations to deal with the consequences. There is a moral duty to meet our fair share of costs and to "climate proof" the planet for those who follow us. Secondly, there is no longer any excuse that we are missing good scientific information of the likely scale and impact of climate change. Climate predictions are complex. We certainly need further research to fill the knowledge gaps in an ever-continuing effort to improve our understanding. But the bottom line is that we understand the problems we are facing today well enough. The work of the IPCC and studies such as the Stern Review make it all too clear what to expect. Those who claim that we must wait until the science is 100% accurate are simply looking for excuses for inaction Finally, anticipating problems is a much more cost effective strategy than waiting for them to happen. Investing in infrastructure, such as flood defences, may be costly but it is approximately four times cheaper than dealing with the result of severe flooding. And here I would add a particular word to politicians. It may be hard to explain to voters why investments are needed to address a problem that is only likely to have an impact in the medium term. But it is much harder, when disaster strikes, to explain why no precautions have been taken. The example of Hurricane Katrina is a case in point. Role of the EU + Green paper The main responsibility for taking adaptation measures will fall on local, regional and national authorities. But there is also a critical role for the EU to play. 3

4 At the beginning of this speech I said that climate change is a force that will transform the way we live. It is the job of policy makers to anticipate this and to prepare for it. Looking at the different areas of EU policy is very clear that changing weather patterns will affect agriculture and fisheries as well as infrastructure planning. And because of this it will also affect our regional and social policies as well as our policies on transport and energy. Developing countries will be particularly hard hit and our development cooperation needs to be adjusted to take this into account. Climate will be a driver of migration flows and will lead to new threats to public health. In the environmental area our approach to issues such as nature protection and river management will need to be looked at again. And our research policies and our budget will need to be adjusted to respond to these new challenges. In short, the need to adapt to climate change will have a massive impact on almost all areas of EU policy. It is simply not possible for European politicians to ignore this reality and I am convinced that the next years will see climate adaptation running like a thread through ALL of our policies. This conference should therefore be understood as the starting point for developing a new vision of how Europe carries out its core business. Last week, the Commission adopted a Green Paper to underline this message. Our aim is to raise awareness across Europe of the urgent need to adapt to climate change, and to spark a broad public debate about what our priorities for adaptation should be. In this spirit the Green Paper sets out four lines of priority actions at EU level that could be considered. The first covers early action in areas from agriculture to trade that are backed by EU policies and available Community funds. The second recommends the integration of adaptation into existing EU external actions, in particular in developing countries. The third calls for intensified climate research, in particular on the impacts of global warming, and technological innovation. The fourth is about involving all segments of society, business and the public in the further development of adaptation strategies. Next Steps It is my firm hope that the Green Paper will generate a broad discussion in Europe that helps to put the need for adaptation to climate change at the top of the political agenda. Today's conference represents the launch of a public debate and working together will be the key to the success of any approach to adaptation. Over the next six months the Commission will be consulting intensively with citizens, with Parliaments, with Member States and with international partners about how to best develop the ideas set out in the Green Paper. The results of the public consultation will become available at the beginning of It should provide guidance and help in setting priorities for further development of the EU adaptation policy by the end of

5 Conclusion Ladies and gentlemen, we must reduce global emissions for the future, but we cannot escape the climate change that is already under way. By adapting to climate change we can limit its impact - in terms of human suffering, in terms of economic costs and in terms of damage to the natural world we all depend on. The earlier we act, the more effective our action will be. Thank you 5