Kyoto: CIBC/Chamber Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post for Publication February 25th

Transcription

1 Kyoto: CIBC/Chamber Weekly CEO/Business Leader Poll by COMPAS in the Financial Post for Publication February 25th COMPAS Inc. Public Opinion and Customer Research

2 Overview On the issue of Canada s embracing the Kyoto Protocol on the Environment, Canadian business leaders side with the provincial critics over the Prime Minister by more than a 3:2 margin, according to this week s National Post/COMPAS web poll of CEOs and other business leaders sponsored by CIBC and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. On the positive side, business leaders are persuaded to consider favourably the Protocol by two considerations the challenge of global warming and the concern that something needs to be done. On the negative side, business leaders find far more persuasive the arguments against Kyoto than those for it. They are especially concerned that signing on would put Canada at a profound disadvantage vis-à-vis the United States. More Opposition to than Support for the Prime Minister s Position As evidence in table 1, 28% take the Prime Minister s side in his disagreement with provincial Premiers led by Ralph Klein while 42% back the premiers. A sizeable group, 28%, take a middle ground while 2% opt not to answer. In their volunteered responses, a number of respondents conveyed concern either about their own knowledge limitations or about the limitations of available science on the issue of warming. Table 1: As you may know, the Kyoto Protocol or treaty would commit Canada to cutting emissions in 2010 to 1990 levels. Prime Minister Chretien intends to ratify the accord while several provincial governments led by Ralph Klein oppose doing so. The Prime Minister believes that the treaty would combat global warming at a moderate economic cost while its opponents believe that the treaty is an unworkable solution that would seriously damage Canada s economy, especially because the U.S. will not sign it. Would you say that [ALTERNATIVE REVERSE ORDER PROVIDED BUT NOT FULLY ROTATED] % The Prime Minister is entirely right 9 The Prime Minister is largely right 19 Both sides have their merits 28 The provinces led by Premier Klein are largely right 26 The provinces led by Premier Klein are entirely right 16 Undecided, not applicable or do not wish to answer 2 1

3 The following are some of the volunteered responses: There is still no agreement among scientists on either causes, manmade or natural, or on consequences [of global temperature changes]. The idea that man is the sole or even the main cause of global warming is anthropocentrically arrogant. There is still debate and uncertainty over whether warming is occurring. I accept it is, but believe it far more likely that such climactic variations are parts of poorly understood long-term natural cycles about which mankind is still learning and discovering, and which we are unlikely to able to stop. Indeed it is conceivable some of the changes may even turn out to be beneficial! To me it is far more rational to make our investments in time money and technology seeking solutions to the questions of how to adapt and cope with change. Not stop it! For the one immutable constant in life IS change; we need to accept it and work with it. Kyoto is a knee-jerk reaction to poorly understood phenomena; like most such reactions it will be incredibly costly and damaging to our economies, and not likely to achieve very much. Remember, a healthy environment is impossible without a healthy economy. Even if there is agreement that there is global warming, we do not have the science to say what is causing it. More Concern about Warming than Confidence in Kyoto As shown in table 2, business leaders are indeed concerned about global warming. Fifty-two percent agree that it is occurring with dangerous speed and threatens coastal habitation while 50% believe that without Kyoto serious action may not be taken. Meanwhile, the other reasons in table 2 do not elicit majority support. The roots of business leaders misgivings about Kyoto lie not in the absence of a concern about warming but in serious doubts about the treaty itself. Its ostensibly major appeal, a free market-like exchange of rights to pollute, does not secure majority support, as shown in table 2. 2

4 Table 2: Please score each of the following messages in support of Kyoto on a 7 point scale where 7 means you are very persuaded and 1, the opposite. [ROTATE INTERNALLY AND WITH Q3] Global warming is occurring with dangerous speed and threatens coastal habitation Without Kyoto, the major industrial countries would not take serious environmental action A by-product of Kyoto would be a reduction in the power of the oil producing countries of the Middle East Kyoto offers an efficient, free market-type solution by allowing low polluters to sell their pollution rights to high polluters Implementing Kyoto would cost Canada very little, perhaps less than a billion dollars a year Mean DNK

5 Table 3: Please score each of the following messages for opposing Kyoto on a 7 point scale where 7 means you are very persuaded and 1, the opposite. [ROTATE] Ratifying Kyoto would put Canada at a terrible competitive disadvantage vis-àvis the U.S., which is not signing A number of other energy-exporting countries have no intention of signing Kyoto As several business associations have stated, Kyoto would seriously harm the Canadian economy and standard of living, costing billions of dollars each year The U.S. has by far the best approach to cutting emissions a combination of tax incentives and investments in science and technology There s time to develop good science and technology to combat global warming Mean DNK Table 3 shows that all but one of the criticisms of Kyoto are embraced by respondents. The one non-persuasive reason to reject the Protocol is to wait for better science and technology. The single most persuasive reason, supported by a two-thirds 4

6 of respondents, is concern about the competitive disadvantage to Canada. In practice, 68% agree that ratifying Kyoto would put Canada at a terrible competitive disadvantage vis-à-vis the U.S., which is not signing while 17% do not a margin of 4:1. The following are some of the volunteered responses: Without the U.S., Kyoto is dead by joining Kyoto, we would be, de facto, acting "unilaterally" to our detriment, since our most important trading partner is going another route. Kyoto is the wrong way to go about dealing with climate change considering Canada's situation -- 87% of our exports go to the U.S., which is not in Kyoto. Without denying that climate change issues must be addressed, Canada cannot ignore how major trading partners like the U.S., Mexico and Japan are reacting to Kyoto. Even Australia, a major competitor on the commodity markets, seems unlikely to ratify. Kyoto poses as many economic challenges as environmental ones and we have to consider both. Canada's energy intensive exports drive a huge portion of our GDP and the low carbon energy technology required for Kyoto is not available. Kyoto simply means jobs in industries where Canada excels will move offshore. Canada cannot sign an agreement that its major trading partner - and other NAFTA partners - are not signing. In addition, it appears several large countries with extremely limited energy efficiencies are not signing. Whether Canada signs or not will make little difference to global warming. It will only place this country at significant competitive disadvantage. We have already had energy producing companies tell us they are positioning themselves to do business in U.S. -- and other countries. The concerns with climate change must be given regard, but the Kyoto protocol is not the vehicle to focus on this problem. Kyoto would make Canada's economy uncompetitive, while leaving the vast majority of the worlds population free to continually increase emissions. Methodology The National Post/COMPAS web-survey of CEOs and leaders of small, medium, and large corporations and among executives of the local and national Chambers of Commerce was conducted February 19-21, Because medium and small companies are more numerous in the economy and hence among Chamber membership, actual respondents are drawn more from these strata than from the stratum of the largest companies. 5

7 Because of the small population of CEOs and business leaders from which the sample was drawn, the study can be considered more accurate than comparably sized general public studies. In studies of the general public, surveys of n=188 are deemed accurate to within 7.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20. The principal and coinvestigators on this study are Conrad Winn Ph.D. and Robert Laufer. 6