FIVE YEAR HOUSING LAND SUPPLY REVIEW. Matter 2 Statement On Behalf of:- Avant Barratt DW Hallam Land Linden Miller Persimmon Redrow Taylor Wimpey

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1 Matter 2 Statement On Behalf of:- Avant Barratt DW Hallam Land Linden Miller Persimmon Redrow Taylor Wimpey LEEDS SITE ALLOCATIONS PLAN EXAMINATION FIVE YEAR HOUSING LAND SUPPLY REVIEW 23 AUGUST 2017

2 Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review Date: 23 August 2017 Johnson Mowat Planning & Development Consultants Coronet House Queen Street Leeds LS1 2TW t: e: w.

3 LIMITATIONS The assessments and interpretation have been made in line with legislation and guidelines in force at the time of writing, representing best practice at that time. All of the comments and opinions contained in this report, including any conclusions, are based on the information obtained by Johnson Mowat Planning Partnership LLP during our investigations. There may be other conditions prevailing on the site which have not been disclosed by this investigation and which have not been taken into account by this report. Responsibility cannot be accepted for conditions not revealed by the investigation. Any diagram or opinion of the possible configuration of the findings is conjectural and given for guidance only and confirmation of intermediate ground conditions should be considered if deemed necessary. Except as otherwise requested by the Client, Johnson Mowat Planning Partnership LLP is not obliged and disclaims any obligation to update the report for events taking place after: a) the date on which this assessment was undertaken; and b) the date on which the final report is delivered. Johnson Mowat Planning Partnership LLP makes no representation whatsoever concerning the legal significance of its findings or to other legal matters referred to in the following report. This report has been prepared for the sole use of the Clients set out in this report. No other third parties may rely upon or reproduce the contents of this report without the written permission of Johnson Mowat Planning Partnership LLP. If any unauthorised third party comes into possession of this report they rely on it at their own risk and the authors do not owe them any Duty of Care or Skill.

4 CONTENTS 1.0 INTRODUCTION 2.0 RECENT APPEAL DECISIONS 3.0 FIVE YEAR HOUSING REQUIREMENT 4.0 THE COUNCIL S PRESENT SUPPLY POSITION 5.0 FIVE YEAR HOUSING LAND SUPPLY 6.0 IMPLICATIONS OF SAP PHASING 7.0 CONCLUSIONS

5 APPENDICES APPENDIX 1 AIREBOROUGH HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 2 CITY CENTRE HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 3 EAST LEEDS HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 4 INNER AREA HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 5 NORTH HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 6 OUTER NORTH EAST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 7 OUTER NORTH WEST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 8 OUTER SOUTH HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 9 OUTER SOUTH EAST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 10 OUTER SOUTH WEST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 11 OUTER WEST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 12 JOHNSON MOWAT TEN YEAR TRAJECTORY APPENDIX 13 JOHNSON MOWAT FIVE YEAR SUPPLY CALCULATION APPENDIX 14 PHASE 1, 2 & 3 SAP GREEN BELT RELEASES APPENDIX 15 JOHNSON MOWAT SUB-AREA MONITORING (SP7) APPENDIX AMR TABLE A (HOUSING TRAJECTORY) APPENDIX 17 LEEDS HOUSING BACKGROUND PAPER (APRIL 2013) APPENDIX 18 DELOITTE CRANE SURVEY, FEBRUARY 2017 APPENDIX 19 BNP PARIBAS, CITY CENTRE HOUSING MARKET (15 TH AUGUST 2017) APPENDIX 20 LCC 2017 SHLAA SITES IN ALTERNATIVE ACTIVE USE APPENDIX 21 LCC 2017 SHLAA SITES WITHOUT PLANNING PERMISSION

6 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 This Report has been prepared by Johnson Mowat to assist the Leeds Site Allocations Plan ( the SAP ) examination and Matter 2 Hearings concerning compliance with the adopted Leeds 2014 Core Strategy (CS). This Report has been prepared on behalf of the following developers/housebuilders:- i. Avant ii. Barratt DW iii. Hallam Land iv. Linden v. Miller vi. Persimmon vii. Redrow viii. Taylor Wimpey 1.2 This Report has been reviewed by several planning consultancy and land agents prior to final publication. 1.3 The purpose of this Report is to provide a review of recent housing delivery performance in the District following the first 5 years of the adopted Core Strategy (period ) and to consider the likely outcomes for achieving the aims and objections of the CS housing delivery over the coming years. In undertaking this assessment, we look back to the material presented by the Council regarding delivery in the early years and also consider the likely effect of the phasing policy in CS H1 as now played out in the SAP. 1.4 The Council are now five years into the years Housebuilding delivery rates have failed to meet the early lower years target of 3,660 over each of the first consecutive five years of the CS. 1.5 Johnson Mowat working in contact with developers, land owners and agents have reviewed all sites contained within the Publication Draft Site Allocations Plan ( the SAP ) together with the draft August 2017 SHLAA review. Sites identified in all of these documents have been included in our comprehensive ten year trajectory covering the period 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March 2022, as set out through Appendices To align with the Council s Publication Draft SAP, the trajectory has been broken down into each of the 11 sub-areas to include:- Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

7 Identified sites (including those with planning permission and sites under construction); Phase 1 SAP Sites; Phase 2 SAP Sites; and Phase 3 SAP Sites. 1.6 The Council s most recent five year supply assessment was set out and tested through a series of 78 appeals in A summary of the housing land supply position tested through recent appeals is set out at Table 1.1 below:- Table 1.1 Recent Leeds 5 Year Supply Appeals Appeal Inquiry Closed Five Year Supply Position Boston Spa Inquiry closed late 2014 SoS DL confirms the Council cannot demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply East Ardsley Inquiry closed April 2016 SoS DL confirms the Council cannot demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply Collingham Inquiry closed April 2016 SoS DL confirms the Council cannot demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply Bramhope Inquiry closed April 2016 SoS DL confirms the Council cannot demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply Kippax Inquiry closed July 2016 LPA do not dispute a five year housing land supply cannot be demonstrated. No evidence presented. Farsley Decision quashed. Inquiry closed January LPA do not dispute a five year housing land supply cannot be demonstrated. No evidence presented. 1.7 The Council have recently published a draft 2017 SHLAA position for comment. Our initial review of the draft 2017 SHLAA informs of a lower supply position. At first sight, it appears the Council s approach to assessing the deliverability of proposed sites has been overly optimistic in the same manner as rejected by Inspector s and the Secretary of State in the S78 in Table 1.1 above. The Council continue to place a high degree of faith in sites without planning permission, sites subject to expired planning permission, sites in alternative active uses and a dramatic upturn in housebuilding activity in and around the City Centre market. 1.8 This Report has been produced to update the Council s position further to recent Inquiries and establish a five year housing land supply to reflect an updated 1 st April 2017 base date. 1.9 In responding to the 2017 SAP Examination, we are aware of housebuilders concerns that later phases of Allocations (Phase 2 and 3) have no release date and note this Council has a history of opposing greenfield allocations as proven by a long run of S78 public inquiries Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

8 in 2009, 2010 and In considering the need to phase the SAP Allocations in line with Policy H1 of the CS we explore the material on housing delivery presented to the CS examination and examine how accurate those predictions have been. Commentary on the need for phasing is found in Section 6 of this Report. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

9 2.0 RECENT APPEAL DECISIONS 2.1 As shown on Table 1.1 in section 1 of this Report, there is now extensive commentary on the Leeds District housing land supply which is relevant to this five year supply assessment. This section sets out key points arising from the Council s supply position tested through recent Inquiries. Grove Road, Boston Spa APP/N4720/A/13/ Johnson Mowat (formerly Johnson Brook) presented housing land supply evidence to the Grove Road, Boston Spa Inquiry which took place between May and June 2014, with the Inspector s report subsequently issued to the SoS on 3rd July Both Johnson Mowat s and the Council s housing land supply positions were considered in extensive detail throughout this appeal, cumulating in correspondence from the SoS in December 2015 seeking both the Appellant s and the Council s views with respect to the most recent figures on housing delivery across Leeds, that being a poor delivery performance against the CS requirement post This was an important consideration as while the Council had consistently projected a healthy forward looking supply, a looking back exercise (as expected by the NPPG) revealed the Council had a relatively poor track record of making an accurate forward looking forecast of likely delivery. In other words, the Council s view of sites with a realistic prospect of delivering in the coming years had been proven to be over-optimistic in each successive SHLAA. 2.5 The looking back exercise on matters of housing land supply was acknowledged within the SoS Decision Letter (DL) issued 8 th June 2016, which stated at 5:- In November 2015 the Secretary of State sought your views and those of the Council on the latest housing supply figures following the publication of the live table on net supply of housing updated on 12 November Submissions were received from you on 14 & 21 December 2015 and 22 January 2016, and from the Council dated 14 & 21 December 2015 and 15 January 2016 as listed in the table at Annex A to this letter. The Secretary of State has carefully considered all this correspondence, and has concluded that he now has sufficient information to proceed to a decision. Copies of this correspondence may be obtained on written request to the address at the foot of the first page of this letter. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

10 2.6 This appeal decision was the first in a succession of recent appeals confirming the Council were unable to demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply. We address each of the key conclusions of the Boston Spa appeal below. The NPPF Para 47 Buffer, 5% or 20% 2.7 The Boston Spa SoS DL concluded that the Council have persistently under delivered and that a 20% buffer would be appropriate. The DL states at 15:- The Secretary of State has considered the Inspector s reasoning at IR on whether a 5% or 20% buffer should be applied to the five year housing requirement figures and, while recognising that the figures prior to the current plan period are not robust and, in particular, the figures proffered from the former Regional Spatial Strategy cannot be given any weight; the Secretary of State agrees with the Inspector s findings overall that a 20% buffer would be appropriate in the light of a persistent under delivery of housing. And, even if that were not the case, the Secretary of State takes the view on the basis of the evidence available to him that, in the light of the increasing requirement and backlog, even applying the lower figure as a buffer indicates that the Council is unable to demonstrate a deliverable 5 year supply of housing land. 2.8 With respect to the quantum of supply considered deliverable by the Council, para 16 of the SoS DL addresses the conclusions and considerable doubts surrounding the Council s optimism of delivery. Due to the absence of an adopted Allocations Plan to deliver the significant quantum of housing required under the CS, the SoS considered the LPA had persistently presented a highly over optimistic case which focussed on deliverable supply of housing within the City Centre & Inner Area HMCAs at unprecedented levels never before seen in the City. 2.9 These matters were recognised through evidence tested at the appeal. Importantly, the SoS held concern that sites included within the forward deliverable supply presented by the Council were not all available or achievable within the five year period, or would be currently viable in the current market:- Taking account of the Inspector s assessment at IR , along with the further evidence submitted in the reference-back exercise referred to at paragraph 5 above, the Secretary of State agrees with the Inspector that the Council s land supply figures would seem to be overly optimistic; and he is not satisfied that the housing supply sites put forward by the Council are all available, viable or achievable with a realistic prospect that the amount of housing required by the CS will be delivered within 5 years. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

11 Hence, the Secretary of State agrees with the Inspector (IR260) that, as there is not a deliverable five year housing land supply, in accordance with the Framework the relevant policies for the supply of housing should not be considered up-to-date and planning permission should be granted unless any adverse impacts significantly and demonstrably outweigh the benefits These criticisms are supported through the Inspector s Report ( the IR ) which concluded the following concerning the deliverable forward supply:- Although it is difficult, on the evidence before me, to identify precisely the extent of housing land supply available, I consider that the supply side put forward by the Council is not all deliverable within 5 years. The sites may all be in suitable locations for housing, but I am not satisfied that they are all available, viable or achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered within 5 years. As such, it seems that the figures provided by the Council are so over-optimistic that the supply level is not realistic. In particular the likelihood of all sites identified in categories A (with planning permission), C (those with expired permissions) and D (those with no permission) coming forward is unlikely to the extent that the supply is likely to fall short by hundreds of dwellings rather than a few. Whilst the Council refers to a mismatch between an optimistic SHMA and pessimistic approach to delivery this seems to be said in light of developers being pessimistic about what will come forward. However, it seems to me on the latest delivery figures (the first three quarters of ) that pessimism is well founded realism and on that basis it is difficult to criticise developers about their attitude to delivery at this point in time In the Boston Spa June 2016 decision, both the SoS and the Inspector were critical of the optimism of the Council and their faith in the City Centre market to recover and deliver significant levels of completions within the immediate five year period. The Inspector noted the well founded realism of the development industry, which when applied to the LPA forward supply resulted in significant reductions to the quantum of supply envisaged as deliverable by the Council. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

12 Breary Lane East, Bramhope (APP/N4720/W/15/ ), Leeds Road, Collingham (APP/N4720/W/14/ ) and Bradford Road, East Ardsley (APP/N4720/W/15/ ) (CD J2, J3, J4) 2.12 A conjoined Inquiry session in relation to the above appeals took place during April 2016 to examine in detail the Council s five year housing land supply position. At the time of the Inquiry, the Grove Road, Boston Spa appeal remained with the SoS for determination and therefore the conclusions of both the Inspector and the SoS in that appeal were unknown Of note however, is the passage of time since the evidence at the Boston Spa Inquiry was examined, with the Council s supply material reassessed as of a 1st April 2016 base date through the conjoined Inquiries The SoS DL was issued 22nd December The conclusions on the Council s five year supply position are set out through 11-12:- Having carefully considered the Inspector s arguments at IR , the Secretary of State agrees with him at IR that, on past performance, the buffer must by 20% - so that the 5-year HLS requirement across the City would be 31,898, or 6,379 units per annum (IR8.2.12). The Secretary of State notes the Inspector s comparison with recent levels of performance (IR8.2.13) before turning to the supply side as set out by the Inspector at IR He agrees with the Inspector at IR that the position on supply is difficult as the SAP will not be adopted until at least December 2017, but that the available evidence based on the December 2015 draft of the SHLAA indicates that there is a serious shortfall of supply in the next two years, a heavy dependence on sites that do not have planning permission and reliance on sites that are currently in other use. The Secretary of State has given careful consideration to the Inspector s analysis of the uncertainties relating to the potential supply of land at IR and he agrees that there are a number of differences between the parties as to delivery rates and lead-in times (IR ). Overall, he agrees with Inspector s conclusion at IR that the failure to produce an adopted SAP until at least December 2017 means that there is no policy set out to show how delivery of any houses, never mind the magnitude required, will actually take place; that the safety margin of 2,262 dwellings can soon be whittled away when realism is applied and that the Council has failed to demonstrate a robust 5 year HLS. The Secretary of State therefore agrees Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

13 with the Inspector s conclusion that the solution is to deliver housing now, including much needed affordable housing (IR ) The conclusions of the SoS demonstrate the continued criticisms of the Council s over optimistic assessment of the supply, with a continued dependence on sites without planning permission and sites in alternative active use. We emphasise the comments of SoS regarding the need to deliver housing now The conclusions of the SoS where echoed by the Inspector, who noted the pressing need to deliver homes now, and not to sit and wait for the SAP to be adopted. The Inspector further recognised that even once the SAP has progressed, the associated lead in times inherent as part of the application process would mean delivery in the early years post adoption of the SAP would be limited in any case The key conclusions of the IR are set out below:- The position on supply is difficult as the SAP will not be adopted until at least December 2017 and the best proxy, the December draft SHMAA 2015, is not finalized. There is a serious shortfall of supply in the next two years. Moreover, the document is dependent on 15,347 dwellings, roughly half the Council s supply case, that do not have planning permission. If 15,347 dwellings are removed then a tipping point is reached irrespective of which figures or buffer is used. There is also a reliance on some sites, with around 6,000 dwellings, that are currently in other use. In the MUA and inner areas there is a wide range of developers active in the market. Both the primary and secondary markets are attractive to developers and investors alike and even in tertiary areas there is an active land market with specialist developers keen to acquire more. The Appellants concern, albeit based on three letters that also outline expansion plans, is the capability of developers in this tertiary market to increase capacity. The lack of capacity in the specialist low cost market could affect the 5 year supply as specialist developers are a finite resource. A different view was reached at Bagley Lane but I am not aware of the evidence that conclusion was based on. The need for additional delivery is even more marked since March 2016 as there is no longer a development plan for delivery. The failure to produce an adopted SAP until December 2017 means there is no policy to set out how delivery of any houses, never mind the magnitude required, will actually take place. The only hope offered by the Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

14 Council is an expectation that the SAP will be adopted in December However, Leeds has failed to meet targets in the past. Although accused of being pessimistic I consider that the house builders have been realistic. The resultant figures are not definitive, but they clearly indicate that the safety margin of 2,262 is soon whittled away when realism is applied. I consider that it is the Council which has been overly optimistic and has failed to demonstrate a robust 5 year housing land supply. The solution is to deliver housing now, not in December 2017 when even after the adoption of the SAP there will be significant lead-in times with no delivery likely until late early The Inspector further recognised the benefits of the delivery of affordable housing and current District shortfall:- The Council s delivery record for affordable housing is also poor and the target amounts to over 1,000 units a year. Delivery over the last 5 years is only around 49% of the SHMA requirement, a serious failure. There is, therefore, a significant need for additional delivery for both market and affordable housing. The proposals would make a contribution to affordable housing as part of the strategy to meet the area s needs over the plan period. However, the housing strategy relies on City Centre and inner area sites which compared to the appeal proposal would effectively restrict the delivery of affordable housing because policy only requires 5% in such locations whilst some sites will provide no affordable housing at all. Against this background the proposals should not be downplayed Importantly, the Inspector recognised that the Council s case focussed on delivery of housing within the City Centre & Inner Areas where the affordable housing requirement under CS Policy H5 is only 5% and therefore casts significant doubt over the shortfall in supply being made good over the five year period. Summary of recent appeal cases 2.20 Since the December 2015 SHLAA was tested through recent appeals, the Council have not published any update on their five year housing land supply position. Completions for the 2016/17 monitoring year have again fallen short of the lower years CS requirement, resulting in an even greater shortfall to address moving forward To therefore summarise the recent succession of appeals, the following matters relevant to the Council s current five year housing land supply position should be noted:- Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

15 There is no doubt that the Council have persistently under-delivered that at this moment in time, a 20% NPPF buffer is appropriate; Previous housing land supply positions put forward by the Council in the various SHLAA and material present to the CS Examination have been overly reliant on known sites without permission, known sites subject to expired permissions, known sites in alternative active use and known sites where viability to allow delivery at the point envisaged is questionable; Accordingly, the Council s forward supply does not meet the tests of Footnote 11 of the Framework in that a large proportion of sites previously relied upon by the LPA are not available, achievable or viable within the five year period; The Council have consistently taken an unrealistic view of the housing market, focussed on unprecedented levels of completions in the City Centre & Inner Areas; There is a serious need for affordable homes to be delivered across the District. The Council s record of delivery is poor at less than 50% of the SHMA requirement; Until such time the Council are in a position to adopt the SAP, this position will only worsen, with the majority of sites forming the Council s supply position located in the City Centre and Inner areas of the District where affordable housing thresholds are only 5%; Even once the SAP is adopted, delivery within the early years will continue to be constrained due no opportunity for early release of the majority of SAP sites by virtue of existing Green Belt policy constraints. There will be further lead in times associated with the preparation, submission and determination of applications together with initial infrastructure works on site. In our professional experience, such timeframes are usually in the order of 2-3 years for the delivery of major residential sites. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

16 3.0 FIVE YEAR HOUSING REQUIREMENT The Base Requirement 3.1 Policy SP6 informs of a plan requirement of 70,000 net dwellings between 2012 and For purposes of monitoring and reporting, the base date for each year is 1 st April. Policy SP6 contains a step-up in requirement with the first five years of the plan (1 st April 2012 to 31 st March 2017) being at a lower rate of at least 3,660 d/pa and at least 4,700 d/pa thereafter. 3.2 The base date for this five year supply assessment is 1 st April This therefore represents the first year in which the lower early years requirement of 3,660 does not factor into the five year supply calculation and an expectation the Council will achieve a minimum of 4,700 d/pa from 1 st April 2017 onward. 3.3 The base requirement for the five year period is therefore as follows:- 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March * 4,700 = 23,500 dwellings Undersupply and the NPPF Buffer 3.4 In considering whether or not Leeds requires a 5% or 20% NPPF buffer for persistent under delivery, we consider the build rates when set against the most appropriate requirement for that period. Table 3.1 below provides that review. Table 3.1: Historic Shortfall Measured Against CS & RSS requirements Year RSS/CS Requirement Actual net supply Difference Cumulative difference RSS 2007/08 2,260 3,576 +1,036 +1, /09 4,300 3, /10 4,300 2,238-2,062-1, /11 4,300 1,686-2,614-4, /12 4,300 1,931-2,369-6,481 Core Strategy 2012/13 3,660 1,801-1,859-1, /14 3,660 3, , /15 3,660 2,226-1,434-3, /16 3,660 3, , /17 3,660 3, ,476 Total 18,300 13,824-4,476 Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

17 3.5 Table 3.1 above confirms that the most recent 8 of the last 10 years of persistent under-supply on a significant scale. The Council has failed to meet its lower rate of 3,660 in the first 5 years of the CS and against the Council s figures on net supply, has accrued a shortfall of 4,476 dwellings since the start of the CS period. This 10 year period reflects a full economic cycle and demonstrates the significant extent of failure to deliver homes across the District. 3.6 Previous Leeds inquiries have grappled with the topic of applying a 5% or 20% buffer as required by paragraph 47 of the Framework. Following recent Inquiries confirming the Council are unable to demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply, it was confirmed in each case the Council have persistently under delivered and therefore a 20% buffer is currently appropriate for calculating a five year supply position. 3.7 This position is acknowledged by the SAP Housing Background Paper Submission Draft (May 2017) which states at 9.7:- Despite efforts to demonstrate a deliverable land supply, recent housing delivery in Leeds remains low. When assessed against the initial lower Core Strategy targets since 2012, there is a backlog of 4,100 homes. This performance has inevitably been affected by wider factors on house building and developer choices, but in line with the approach to assessing a 5YHLS means that the Council is categorised as having persistently under-delivered. To remedy this national guidance requires that the 5YHLS be increased by the application of a 20% buffer. 3.8 The purpose of the NPPF buffer is to provide choice and competition in the market for land and to provide a realistic prospect of delivery within the five year period. Making Good the Shortfall Liverpool vs Sedgefield 3.9 The Council have previously accepted the need to adopt the Sedgefield Method, that being making good the under-supply in the immediate forthcoming 5 year period. Buffer on Shortfall 3.10 The 20% NPPF Buffer is applied to both the base requirement and shortfall accumulated since the start of the CS Plan period. This approach accords with a number of recent appeal decisions. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

18 Five Year Requirement 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March Having regard to the above, the adjusted five year requirement for the period 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March 2022 is set out in Table 3.2 below:- Table Year Requirement 1 St April 2017 to 31 st March 2022 A Base Requirement 23,500 4,700 * 5 B Shortfall 1 st April 2012 to 31 st March ,476 C Base Requirement + Shortfall 27,976 A + B D NPPF Buffer (20%) 5,595 C * 20% E Total Five Year Requirement 33,571 C + D F Residual Annual Requirement 6,714 E / As set out above, the total adjusted five year requirement for the period 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March 2022 stands at 33,571 dwellings or a residual annual requirement of 6,714 d/pa The scale & magnitude of the requirement facing Leeds is therefore significant and should not be underplayed. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

19 4.0 THE COUNCIL S PRESENT FIVE YEAR SUPPLY POSITION The Draft 2017 SHLAA 4.1 The Council are currently in the process of undertaking a 2017 update to the SHLAA and have in July 2017 contacted agents, landowners and promoters of sites to comment upon the availability and achievability of each site. 4.2 Responses to the draft 2017 SHLAA will subsequently inform an updated five year housing land supply position which will be published later in the year. The 18 th July 2017 Housing Land Supply and Delivery Update, Report to Development Plans Panel states:- The 2017 Update is now underway and will report this Summer. Following the Secretary of State decisions in December 2016 on housing land supply in Leeds, it is necessary for the Council to have regard to the Inspector s conclusions in respect of achievability, specifically market activity and landowner/developer interests. 4.3 The report goes on to state a full update on the 2017 SHLAA and 5 year supply position will be reported to Development Plans Panel in September Since the close of the last inquiries and publication of the Grove Road, Boston Spa appeal decision on 8th June 2016, the Council have not published an updated position on housing land supply. The last available evidence presented by the Council was that in support of the Sandgate Drive, Kippax appeal, subsequently withdrawn prior to the opening of the Inquiry. 4.5 The draft 2017 SHLAA is presented in the form of a housing trajectory which is broken down by HMCA. As the Council have yet to filter the SHLAA and remove those sites subject to current policy constraints (i.e. Green Belt) together with informing delivery assumptions based upon responses from agents & promoters, the position of the Council is treated with caution. It is anticipated the five year supply position to be presented later in the year will differ from those figures set out in the draft 2017 SHLAA for reasons examined further in this section. 4.6 Without prejudice to the Council, the figures set out in the 2017 SHLAA draft update are however examined below in further detail. 4.7 Table 4.1 below identifies the Council s breakdown of the number of dwellings identified for the 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2022 period within each of the HMCAs. Table 4.1 further identifies 14 Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

20 the identified distribution of dwellings within each HMCA under Policy SP7 of the adopted Core Strategy and target level of affordable housing required. Table 4.1 Distribution of Five Year Supply, Leeds City Council Draft SHLAA 2017 Core Strategy No. of HMCA % Total Distribution Dwellings (SP7) Affordable Housing (H5) 1. Aireborough 840 2% 3% 35% 2. City Centre 7,961 23% 15.5% 5% 3. East Leeds 3,702 11% 17% 15% 4. Inner Area 7,837 22% 15% 5% 5. North 3,171 9% 9% 15% / 35% 6. Outer North East 1,511 4% 8% 35% 7. Outer North West 642 2% 3% 35% 8. Outer South 1,190 3% 4% 15% 9. Outer South East 1,915 5% 7% 15% 10. Outer South West 3,194 9% 11% 15% 11. Outer West 2,917 8% 7% 15% / 35% Total 34, % 4.8 Table 4.1 above highlights a number of key considerations:- Firstly, although the figures currently presented by the LPA should be treated with caution given they have only been released in draft form for comment, our analysis of these draft trajectories points again to a heavy reliance upon a market boom in housing delivery across the investment led City Centre & low value challenging Inner Area HMCAs. Indeed completions across the five years in these two HMCAs alone total in excess of 15,000 units across the five years and account for almost half of the LPA supply. This optimism has been tested through recent inquiries and shown to be entirely unrealistic. It would appear the Council is now overlooking the remarks regarding unproven optimism in the recent public inquiries and is failing to apply the reasonable prospect of delivery test as required by the Framework. Spatial distribution outside the City Centre & Inner Area remains below the CS target under SP7, even with Phase 1 Green Allocations factored into the forward supply. In most instances, under delivery against the CS target to date has resulted in a significant shortfall not only District wide, but particularly in the Outer Areas of Leeds given the District is constrained by Green Belt land. Finally, the figures indicate the highest proportion of development in the Inner Area, City Centre and East Leeds HMCAs. The affordable housing target under Policy H5 of the adopted CS for each of these respective HMCAs is between 5%-15%, with the total 15 Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

21 quantum of circa 15,000 units within the City Centre & Inner Area wholly falling within the 5% requirement. This points toward further uncertainty as to the Council s ability to meet both the 2011 SHMA affordable housing target of 1,150 d/pa moving forward and address the backlog of affordable housing delivery accumulated to date. 4.9 Appendix 4 of the adopted Core Strategy sets out a Summary Monitoring Table, which at Items 3 & 4 identify a mechanism by way of a Trigger or Intervention for the under/oversupply of dwellings within any one HMCA. Table 4.2 Core Strategy Appendix 4, Summary Monitoring Table Extract No. Indicator Key Policies Targets Triggers/Interventions Source Managing the needs of a Successful District 3 Net additional SP1, The release of land and dwellings by SP7 completions meet the location within broad spatial the distribution pattern Settlement Hierarchy outlined in SP1 and table and SP7 table 2 4 Net additional SP7 The release of land and dwellings by completions meet the Housing broad spatial distribution Market pattern outlined in SP7 Characteristic table 3 Area In the case of over provision / under provision in any one area seek to determine whether it is appropriate to limit / promote permissions or adjust the phased release of allocated sites until an appropriate balance is maintained Housing Land Monitor Site Allocations Plan SHLAA SHMA Five Year Housing Land Supply 4.10 Of importance, is that the trigger/intervention identified above in Table 4.2, requires the Council to consider whether it would be appropriate to adjust the phased release of allocated sites in order to maintain a more balanced spatial distribution pattern. The monitoring trigger identifies both the SHLAA and five year supply as indicators of disproportionate housing growth. Other considerations 4.11 The Council s average annual delivery since the start of the CS period has been 2,765 dwellings, therefore if the authority are to meet their residual requirement, house building output across the District will have to more than double in each successive year from 1st April 2017 onward Deliverable supply has continued to be held back due to delays in the adoption of the SAP, with many deliverable sites presently tied up by existing policy constraints and to be further delayed by a phasing release policy. At recent inquiries, the Council s entire case for justifying a five year supply existed, rested on a mass upsurge of activity within the City Centre and Inner Areas which have in recent years seen little output in the form of residential development. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

22 4.13 At Appendix 18 we refer to the recently published 2017 Deloitte Leeds Crane Survey, this is an annual report produced by Deloitte which reports upon the Leeds City Centre and City Fringe area and is widely regarded as an indicator of higher density residential development activity The Crane Survey Report informs of a slow market growth within the Leeds City Centre market within the last year. Only three residential schemes completed in 2016, providing for a total of 216 units, none of which were new build developments and were instead brought forward as office to residential conversions. The Deloitte report states:- Leeds has continued to see slow growth in the residential market after a prolonged period without any development, with just three new starts in This is half the amount seen in Once again, developers continue to make use of the permitted development rights which allow the conversion of B1 office buildings into C3 residential use, with two of the three new starts being brought forward under this method. Leeds continues to underperform in terms of the city centre residential market and remains significantly behind other regional cities despite having a strong city offer The Crane Survey Report goes on to conclude the future prospects for the City Centre market, noting the slower rate in which schemes are coming forward compared to other regional cities:- Whilst residential conversions have been prevalent over recent years, we predict that Leeds is likely to witness more new build schemes in the coming years with pipeline schemes including those planned for Bridge Street, the Tetley site and the former Yorkshire Post site. This is however at a slower rate than new build schemes are coming forward in other regional cities and a more innovative approach will need to be undertaken by both the public and private sector if the city is to meet the current requirement of 10,200 new homes in the city centre by The above market commentary only adds to the realism of the Leeds housing supply position and supports the conclusions reached at recent inquiries. Put simply, the Council cannot rely upon an upsurge of City Centre activity to justify a deliverable five year housing land supply position and until such time deliverable and achievable sites can come forward post adoption of the SAP, the situation is not likely to improve anywhere near the rate required to make good the existing shortfall. Even a modest upsurge in this activity will not remedy the delivery shortfalls experienced in many of the outer sub areas. In addition, any upsurge in City Centre activity will deliver little or no affordable housing. In almost all cases, these city centre sites are Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

23 not reliant on the adaption of the SAP as these sites are not reliant upon obtaining an Allocation in order to commence These comments are also supported by local agents operating within the City Centre market. We refer to Appendix 19 in the form of a letter supplied by BNP Paribas Real Estate, providing a commentary on the state of the current City Centre market. The letter supports our view that the Council s unrealistic projections within the City Centre and Inner Area HMCAs over the course of the next five years. Particular attention is drawn to the following points:- i. The majority of developers previously focused on apartments and flatted schemes within the City Centre withdrew their interest following the financial collapse; ii. The withdrawal from the City Centre market, has seen a shift away from developing in more challenging mid/low value areas toward traditional 2 storey housing outside of the City Centre, with good access and transport links. iii. Specialist house builders such as Keepmoat, Gleeson & Strata, have sought to acquire sites in mid/low value areas following the financial collapse, however such options will only be of interest whereby upfront costs are kept to a minimum and land can be acquired at a low value. We further note that house builders operating within the lower value markets have only limited capacity. iv. The Private Rented Sector (PRS) continues to see slow growth, due to issues delivering viable schemes and competition from a resurgent office market. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

24 5.0 FIVE YEAR HOUSING LAND SUPPLY Policy Context 5.1 The NPPF was published 27 th March Part 6, Delivering a Wide Choice of High Quality Homes, sets out the government s objectives to boost significantly the supply of housing. Paragraph 47 of the Framework provides that Councils:- Use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area as far as is consistent with the policies set out in this Framework, including identifying key sites which are critical to the delivery of the housing strategy over the plan period; Identify and update annually a supply of specific deliverable sites sufficient to provide five years worth of housing against their housing requirements with an additional buffer of 5% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to ensure choice and competition in the market for land. Where there has been a record of persistent under delivery of housing, local planning authorities should increase the buffer to 20% (moved forward from later in the plan period) to provide a realistic prospect of achieving the planned supply and to ensure choice and competition in the market for land; Identify a supply of specific developable sites or broad locations for growth, for years 6 10 and, where possible, for years Footnote 11 of the Framework states:- To be considered deliverable, sites should be available now, offer a suitable location for development now, and achievable with a realistic prospect that housing will be delivered on the site within five years and in particular the development of the site is viable. Sites with planning permission should be considered deliverable until planning permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be implemented within five years, for example they will not be viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans. 5.3 Footnote 12 of the Framework states:- Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

25 To be considered developable, sites should be in a suitable location for housing development and there should be a reasonable prospect that the site is available and could be viably developed at the point envisaged National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG) 5.4 The NPPG was published as a live working document on 6 th March It extends to over 600 pages and is intended to replace over 7,000 pages of now revoked guidance. The NPPG provides additional guidance on SHLAA preparation, how the assessment of timescale and delivery rates of development should be assessed and presented and advice on the selection of sites in the Plan making process. What constitutes a deliverable site in the context of housing policy? 5.5 Under the subheading What constitutes a deliverable site in the context of housing policy the PPG advises:- Deliverable sites for housing could include those that are allocated for housing in the development plan and sites with planning permission (outline or full that have not been implemented) unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be implemented within five years. However, planning permission or allocation in a development plan is not a prerequisite for a site being deliverable in terms of the five-year supply. Local planning authorities will need to provide robust, up to date evidence to support the deliverability of sites, ensuring that their judgements on deliverability are clearly and transparently set out. If there are no significant constraints (e.g. infrastructure) to overcome such as infrastructure sites not allocated within a development plan or without planning permission can be considered capable of being delivered within a fiveyear timeframe. The size of sites will also be an important factor in identifying whether a housing site is deliverable within the first 5 years. Plan makers will need to consider the time it will take to commence development on site and build out rates to ensure a robust five-year housing supply. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

26 Assessing the Deliverability of the Supply the Framework 5.6 The PPG (para 1D 3-031) addresses the concept of a deliverable site. It states: planning permission or allocation in a development plan is not a prerequisite for a site being deliverable in terms of the five-year supply. Local planning authorities will need to provide robust, up to date evidence to support the deliverability of sites, ensuring that their judgements on deliverability are clearly and transparently set out 5.7 Paragraph 49 of the Framework also provides:- Housing applications should be considered in the context of the presumption in favour of sustainable development. Relevant policies for the supply of housing should not be considered up-to-date if the local planning authority cannot demonstrate a five-year supply of deliverable housing. 5.8 The calculation of housing land supply is not an exact science. However, since the question has considerable significance for the application of government policy in the Framework, a robust calculation is essential. In cases such as this, where the Council s ability to show a five-year supply depends on several variables, any one of which could make a decisive difference to the outcome if an assumption or judgement contrary to the Councils were accepted, the need for clarity and precision will be vital. Appellant s Review of the Leeds Housing Land Supply 5.9 Against the background of the Framework and the absence of an up to date position on behalf of the Council, we address the current Leeds housing land supply position As set out through Section 2 of this Report, a recent succession of appeals have set out a number of criticisms of the Council s perceived five year supply, with both s.78 Inspectors and the SoS noting the Council s over optimistic view in contrast with the well founded realism of the development industry The Council have historically presented a case centred on a number of key arguments and areas of dispute with the development industry. Many of these criticisms have been examined through Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

27 recent Inquiries as set out at Section 2, however notably the following topic areas are discussed in further detail:- i. The Accuracy of the Council s SHLAA Assessment; ii. The inclusion of a large quantum of sites subject to no planning permission; iii. The inclusion of sites in alternative active use; iv. The timing and delivery of major residential sites subject to planning permission; and v. The reliance upon a surge of activity across the City Centre, with PRS schemes coming forward within the City Centre and low cost builders operating within the Inner Areas We examine each of the above topic areas below together with the components forming the Council s housing land supply position. The Accuracy of the Council s SHLAA 5.13 The realism of the Council s SHLAA is put into perspective when assessing the Council s track record of forecasting delivery against actual completions Table 5.1 below sets out the Council s forecast completions at the Boston Spa Inquiry over the period 1st April 2014 to 31st March 2017 against actual completions. Table 5.1 Leeds City Council Evidence on Supply, Boston Spa Year LCC Boston Spa Evidence Actual Delivery 2014/15 3,829 2, /16 4,500 3, /17 5,664 3,306 Total 13,993 8, As evident from the above, the Council have continuously overestimated the deliverable supply and therefore there can be little confidence in the SHLAA methodology which has remained largely unchanged over the passage of time In the three years alone which followed the close of the Boston Spa Inquiry, the difference between LCC s expectation of delivery and actual delivery reported by LCC are enormous, at 5,165 dwellings less than the Council s evidence. Whilst a five year supply exercise is not an exact Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

28 science which should deal with certainty, it is clear by the provisions of Footnote 11 that sites included within the assessment should offer a realistic prospect of delivery In this respect, we refer to the guidance as set out in the PPG 1, which states:- Local planning authorities should ensure that they carry out their annual assessment in a robust and timely fashion, based on up-to-date and sound evidence, taking into account the anticipated trajectory of housing delivery, and consideration of associated risks, and an assessment of the local delivery record The record of delivery for a significant proportion of sites forming the LCC SHLAA, is one of persistent failure, that continues to place faith in the delivery of identified SHLAA sites without and substantive evidence to support such assumptions. Sites without Planning Permission 5.19 The draft 2017 SHLAA identifies 238 sites which benefit from no identified planning permission contributing to the five year supply for the period 1st April 2017 to 31st March Of the sites identified, the draft position presented by the Council (subject to industry comment) is that in the order of 20,000 dwellings are deliverable from this source of supply over the period 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March Our detailed trajectories for each of the HMCA sub-areas can be found through Appendices Our approach in recalculating the Council s supply position as of a 1st April 2017 base date is to question in more detail those sites lacking evidence and where no evidence of good planning progress being made, is to remove the site from the 5 year supply. Where progress is evidenced, we accept some delivery from the site may be possible within the five year period, albeit do not always accept the Council s rates of delivery, whereby in many instances this bears no resemblance to reality At previous Inquiries, the Council s case and evidence for a large proportion of these sites coming forward, rests on the basis that the sites in question are for the majority, brownfield sites in urban areas which have been assessed as viable and to which there would be no foreseeable barrier to obtaining a planning permission. This approach is not what we consider to meet a Footnote 11 test, the Council s case deals largely with the suitability of a site which is only one aspect of Footnote NPPG 033 Reference ID: Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

29 5.22 The SAP Inspector(s) should also note, that of the sites identified without the benefit of planning permission, 2,774 dwellings are attributed to sites which have been subject to expired permissions which have failed to be brought forward and deliver. When assessing the deliverability of sites subject to expired planning permissions, a cautious approach should be taken, and sites should only be included if there is clear and robust evidence to demonstrate a realistic prospect of delivery within the five year period. In our opinion, this goes beyond the owner simply re-stating they would like to see their site developed in coming years, it has to be accompanied by hard evidence that the development investment programme has re-started The fact that such sites have previously held permission and in many cases will have been market tested, without any interest in bringing the site forward, is a sign that the site is not currently attractive to the market and therefore in many circumstances will diminish the confidence which can be given to the site being progressed in the short term As was evident from the case presented by LCC at the recent East Ardsley, Collingham & Bramhope Inquiries, the Council previously presented no robust evidence to demonstrate the delivery of the majority of sites without permission. Sites in Alternative Active Uses 5.25 The Council s approach to sites in alternative active uses is at odds with the Framework. Footnote 11 is explicit in its use of availability now and not at a later date within the five year period. To take a different approach would throw into doubt the realistic prospect of a site delivering within the five year period Our approach however has not sought to discount all sites in alternative active uses, it is clear that the nature of the existing active alternative use and how readily such use could either relocate or cease entirely is relevant to reaching an informed judgement on whether delivery can be achieved within the five year period, having regard to all other factors Our assessment of supply therefore includes a number of sites in alternative active uses in which we have taken an informed approach and considered delivery within the five year period likely to be achieved. The Council however have previously considered however, that all active uses identified can be relocated within five years and completions achieved on site. That is not a robust approach and in no way accords with the provisions of Footnote 11. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

30 5.28 The scale of difference in this topic area is significant. With reference to Appendix 20, a review of the draft 2017 SHLAA material shows that the Council s forward supply contains 117 sites, either partially or entirely in alternative active use, of which 7,154 dwellings are considered deliverable for the period 1st April 2017 to 31st March The majority of these sites in alternative have no planning permission, most of those have no expressed developer interest. Delivery of Sites with Planning Permission 5.29 Our assessment does not dismiss sites with planning permission as a deliverable source of supply. That would clearly be an unreasonable approach and in conflict with Footnote 11. The Framework is clear that:- sites with planning permission should be considered deliverable until permission expires, unless there is clear evidence that schemes will not be implemented within five years, for example they will not be viable, there is no longer a demand for the type of units or sites have long term phasing plans The contrasting view with LCC has historically been an issue of timing and the quantum of development to come forward within the five year period. The Council have previously grossly overestimated the delivery rate in which a large proportion of sites with planning permission will deliver. In this regard, disputes largely relate to the Inner area and City Centre high density proposals Many of the key schemes which the Council rely upon for a significant quantum of development are outline planning permissions with no reserved matters submissions or developer attached to the proposal. Our approach has considered an informed site specific assessment of each site forming the supply and necessary steps to be taken before completions can be achieved on site together with the rate in which such schemes will deliver. That is a robust assessment and is no way in conflict with the Framework. The Council s approach with such sites however is to simply assume that almost all schemes with permission can fully complete within the five year period Despite the Council s concerns on this topic, we note that in many instances there is little difference between the two parties over those sites which have obtained full planning permission and are due to commence works on site. Lead in Times and Delivery 5.33 The PPG is clear that a planning permission or allocation in a development plan is not a prerequisite for a site being deliverable in terms of five year supply, therefore it is necessary to Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

31 make assumptions regarding appropriate lead in times having regard to the most up to date available evidence and planning status of each individual site Clearly there are a number of factors which will contribute to lead in times, even in a scenario where a planning permission exists. These can include but are not limited to:- Whether a known developer is committed to the site or whether an application has been made on behalf of a land owner; land owner negotiations can take considerable time; Marketing of existing employment sites, typically for a minimum period of 12 months prior to disposal for residential options; Lead in times for preparation, submission and determination of reserved matters; Signing or re-negotiation of any legal agreement; Discharge of any pre commencement conditions; Any mitigation works or up front infrastructure requirements necessary to facilitate the development (e.g. Outer East Leeds Orbital Route); The status of the market area; The length of time the site has been previously marketed with the benefit of a planning permission; Where sites are known to be occupied, the nature of the occupier, time left on any lease together with the likely timeframe for relocating business activities Such matters are acknowledged by the PGG 2, which states:- Consideration should also be given to the delivery record of the developers or landowners putting forward sites, and whether the planning background of a site shows a history of unimplemented permissions In Tables 5.2 & 5.3 below, we set out a number of indicative timescales based upon the submission of either a full or outline application through to first completions. These lead in times represent fair assumptions that applications are processed and determined within the appropriate timescales. We note however from experience that major applications can often exceed these timeframes at planning stage:- 2 PPG ID: Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

32 Table Lead-in Times in Months for Sites with Outline Permission Time (in months) Key Stages Prep. of Consider S.106 Prep. of First Total Applic. Applic. Site Comp. time Outline Application Reserved Matters and Discharge Pre-Commencement Conditions Site Commencement Overall Time from Preparation to Start of Completions 28 Table Lead-in Times in Months for Sites with Detailed Planning Permission Time (in months) Key Stages Prep. of Consider S.106 Prep. of First Total Applic. Applic. Site Comp. time Full Application Discharge Pre-Commencement Conditions Site Commencement Overall Time from Preparation to Start of Completions The above timescales are not prescriptive, however represent a reasonable indicator for major residential schemes. With respect to delivery rates, our assessment of the Council s five year supply position has been co-ordinated with a number of major volume house builders active both in and around the Leeds market. These include:- Barratt David Wilson Homes Harron Homes Linden Homes Miller Homes Persimmon Homes Redrow Homes Taylor Wimpey 5.38 We conclude that for many sites with the capacity below 200 dwellings, we are informed by the housebuilders a build rate of between 30 to 40 d/pa to be applicable, having regard to the Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

33 market area. Delivery rates will inevitably increase as a result of multiple outlets on site, where available, site specific evidence has been used to inform my assumptions on delivery, however where there is no clear evidence available, Table 5.4 provides assumptions based upon our professional judgement and experience. Table 5.4 Anticipated No. of Sales Outlets Size of Site Projected No. of Outlets dwellings 1 sales outlet dwellings 2 sales outlets dwellings 3 sales outlets 1,001+ dwellings 4-5 sales outlets 5.39 It should be noted that the delivery of major strategic sites are typically phased, both through their lifecycle of implementation and in the early stages of delivery such that it takes time for total no. of sales outlets projected to operate from the site to take effect In many cases, it is not appropriate to simply add a multiplier to the no. of outlets anticipated to operate from a site against a blanket delivery rate. This is because a greater no. of sales outlet within a market area increases competition which can often lead to suppressed delivery rates. In most cases, a professional judgement has to be made, having regard to existing market conditions and the number of competing outlets within the area For flatted schemes in and around the City Centre, it should also be noted that sites will deliver at a different rate, subject to often longer lead in times. Most flatted schemes are constructed in a number of blocks, and take a phased approach toward delivery, completing usually a single block of around 200 units before releasing the scheme to the market. This is not surprising given the finance involved in facilitating the delivery of such a large piece of infrastructure without any initial return. It is clearly in a developers interest to phase the development, in order to generate cash flow to facilitate the next phases. To do otherwise would be an extremely high risk strategy involving the outlay of significant sums of money. City Centre Surge in Delivery and Private Rented Schemes (PRS) 5.42 LCC have long held continued faith in the renaissance of the City Centre and look toward an improving market and growth in the PRS sector to justify significant completions coming forward and forming part of the Council s five year supply assessment. Our assessment of the forward supply position does not challenge the assumption that development across the City Centre will no doubt improve from the previous five years of poor delivery to a more positive outlook. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

34 5.43 The concerns over the Council s projections however, relate more toward what rate the City Centre market will improve and deliver rather than if. The Council s estimation on deliverable supply across the City Centre following the round table discussion at recent inquiries totalled 7,859 dwellings across the five year period. We refer again to the recently published Deloitte Crane Survey, and the comments regarding slow residential growth within the City Centre. Utilising the graph provided by the 2017 Deloitte Crane Survey, we have added in the draft Leeds 2017 SHLAA figures to demonstrate the Council s continued unrealistic view of short term delivery. Figure 5.1 Draft 2017 SHLAA City Centre Delivery 3000 City Centre HMCA Deloitte Crane Survey Under Construction LCC Draft 2017 SHLAA Viability 5.44 The issue of whether or not a number of sites within the Council s assessment of deliverable 5 year supply remains a topic of discussion and in part can be split into two distinct topics:- 1. Whether or not the high density City Centre Market and City Fringe markets provide a return at a level that would attract investment into these products which carry a high capital investment and ultimately higher risks. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

35 2. Whether or not the low value Inner and East Leeds areas which require a more traditional housing market product command sales values sufficient to generate attraction from the traditional house builder market While the topic has been argued at several previous 5 year land supply inquiries with the case never totally proven either way, it is also true that housing markets fluctuate according to the state of the economy and the changing nature in which investment money for construction comes about What is now widely accepted is the level of higher density investment money for apartment blocks in Leeds is at a much lower level than other key cities such as London, Birmingham and Manchester where rental values are higher and returns on capital invested are better. Leeds is seen as a higher risk option and as such has seen lower levels of activity. This is reflected in the delivery rates from these sources. Whether or not this is a viability point or a matter that relates to market forces and market attractiveness is a moot point. Leeds is regarded as more marginal than other preferred cities As for those fringe areas containing brownfield sites, viability is more of an issue as sales values are low and on certain sites creates a position whereby the sales values do not deliver an appropriate return for both landowner and developer. This is evidenced in part through a looking back exercise over the historic SHLAAS where the same sites have been regarded as available by the owners and suitable by the Council but have never been found attractive enough to the development industry. While the historic failure of these sites to deliver is sufficient evidence to remove them from the 5 year supply, it is right the Council continues to register them in the SHLAA but in the less reliable category of 6-10 yrs These old failed to deliver SHLAA sites should not be used to displace more attractive sites from the 5 year supply. Additional Components of Housing Land Supply Windfall 5.49 The windfall allowance under SP6 is therefore one which accounts for all unidentified sites. The Council continues to place a high degree of reliance on windfall delivery above greenfield release. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

36 Empty Homes 5.50 The Council have in recent years been reliant upon the return of empty homes back into use to contribute toward annual completions and have historically included assumptions on the return of empty properties back to use within their assessment of five year supply Table 5.5 below sets out the annual no. of empty homes reported as being brought back into use by the Council and contributing to annual completions. Table 5.5 Empty Homes Brought Back into Use Year No. of Empty Homes Returned to Use 2012/ / / / / Total 2, When considered against the 13,824 completions achieved by the Council during the period 1st April 2012 to 31st March 2017, over the last 5 years this source of supply has facilitated 17% of the LCC reported completions The Housing Land Supply and Delivery Update Report to Development Plans Panel, 18th July 2017 notes the reduction to this source of supply moving forward:- The net reduction figure relates to the total number of private sector properties that have been empty for longer than 6 months. The annual net reduction figure at March 2017 was 437 units. This is higher than expected as this is a finite supply that has now contributed 2,436 completions in the last five years The report continues at 3.10:- The return of empty properties has made an important contribution to delivery but this is a finite supply that will not continue beyond next year At the last set of Inquiries, it was agreed on a figure of 1,000 dwellings to contribute toward the forward supply, although the Appellant s expressed concerns regarding the robustness of such assumption. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

37 5.56 Having regard to the above comments contained within the LCC Development Plans Panel Report of 18th July 2017, we consider no more than 500 dwellings should contribute to the Council s forward five year supply. Conclusion on net supply 5.57 Our conclusions on the net deliverable supply for the period 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March 2022 is summarised in Table 5.6 below. Table 5.6 Johnson Mowat Breakdown of Deliverable Supply from Known Sites HMCA Net Delivery 2017/18 to 2021/22 1. Aireborough City Centre 3, East Leeds 1, Inner Area 3, North 1, Outer North East Outer North West Outer South Outer South East Outer South West 1, Outer West 1,614 Total 17,141 Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

38 Conclusions on Five Year Housing Land Supply 5.58 Factoring the deliverable supply in Table 6.6, we conclude our interim five year housing land supply position as follows:- Table 6.7 Five Year Supply Calculation 2017/18 to 2021/22 (20% Buffer) A Total Five Year Requirement 1 st April 2017 to 33, st March 2022 B Annual Requirement 6,714 A/5 C Identified Supply 17,141 D Windfall 2,500 E Empty Homes 500 F Large Windfall 0 H Demolitions -225 I Total Supply 19,916 C+D+E+F+G+H J Five Year Supply 2.97Years I/B 5.59 As demonstrated in Table 6.7 above, we consider the Council s deliverable housing land for the period 1 st April 2017 to 31 st March 2022 to be no more than 2.97 Years. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

39 6.0 IMPLICATIONS OF SAP PHASING 6.1 The Council s projections on delivering the CS requirement were presented to the CS examination and stemmed from the 2012 AMR, published March Table A of the 2012 AMR set out a housing trajectory across the Plan period and informed of the following projected rates of delivery moving forward. Table AMR Projected Completions Year 2012/ / / / /17 Total 2012 AMR 2,064 3,782 3,833 3,500 5,551 18,730 Actual Delivery 1,801 3,195 2,226 3,296 3,306 13,824 Difference , ,245-4, As evident from Table 6.1 above, the housing trajectory presented to the Core Strategy Inspector was clearly flawed, with completions to date failing to meet the Council s projected rates of delivery. 6.3 Policy H1 and supporting text of the adopted CS, informs of the need to identify housing allocations and to release those allocations in order to maintain a rolling five year supply of deliverable housing to meet the target set in Policy SP6 and SP7. In defining what was meant by phasing, footnote 1 to the Policy states:- Phase means a series of sequential bandings of site preference. 6.4 Policy H1 further confirms:- The Council will maintain a five year supply (plus appropriate NPPF buffer) of deliverable housing sites through considering release of the subsequent phase or phases of sites to help address the shortfall. 6.5 The Submission Draft SAP sets out a three tier phased approach toward the release of sites. Phase 1 includes those sites already identified through successive SHLAA reviews and comprises former UDP allocations, sites with planning permissions & sites under construction in addition to an initial release of Green Belt land. Table 6.2 below sets out the Council s approach:- Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

40 Table 6.2 SAP Allocations Phasing Phase No. of Sites Capacity Phase 1 SAP ,972 Phase 2 SAP 30 4,617 Phase 3 SAP 31 3,207 Total , The Council accepts that following recent Inquiries, it is presently unable to demonstrate a deliverable five year housing land supply. The 18 th July 2017 report to Development Plans Panel highlighted the importance the Council place on adopting the SAP in order to supplement their housing land supply position. The Council therefore place great faith in a five year supply being demonstrated upon adoption of the SAP. 6.7 As set out at Section 3 of this Report, the residual requirement in Leeds, owing to an existing backlog of almost 4,500 dwellings together with a 20% NPPF Buffer currently stands at 6,714 d/pa. 6.8 As set out at Appendix 14, the draft 2017 SHLAA factors in the projected delivery of Phase 1 Green Belt sites, at a total of 2,754 dwellings across the five year period. Against the current residual requirement detailed above, even should the Council s projections be considered realistic, this is the equivalent of only circa 5 months supply and would therefore make only a marginal contribution toward addressing the shortfall over the five year period. 6.9 Upon adoption of the SAP, it is clear that sites subject to existing policy constraints, including Green Belt land, will be unlikely to deliver any significant numbers in the immediate early years post adoption. There will need to appropriate lead in times for preparing, submitting and determining planning applications together with lead in times for preparation of site and any upfront infrastructure requirements. Some sites may come forward in outline form, to be followed by detailed reserved matters submissions, and some sites with larger capacities may take several years before first completions can be achieved due to up front infrastructure requirements. Many of these sites will be in option form and face lengthy sales negotiations. The Council are aware of the challenges faced in delivering large scale sites, with the East Leeds extension having been subject to continuous delays The manner in which sites in the SAP are sub-divided into Phases is therefore technically compliant with Policy H1 of the CS. However, the case for supporting phasing is now fragile 35 Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

41 given the scale of under provision of actual delivery when compared with the trajectory of supply presented by the Council to the CS examination to make the case for Policy H In order to explore this point further, we have considered the implications of removing any phasing from the SAP and therefore bringing sites identified in Phases 2 & 3 into the five year supply We conclude that even with the support of Phase 2 & 3 SAP sites, the Council s supply position would remain below five years for the immediate five year period. The early release of SAP sites within Phases 2 & 3 would however allow early applications to contribute toward an improving position in Years 6-10 (1 st April 2022 to 31 st March 2027), that being the back end of the current CS Plan Period up to By now holding back Phase 2 & 3 SAP sites, it is clear that the Council run a severe risk of being unable to deliver anywhere close to the CS requirement inside the Plan Period. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

42 7.0 CONCLUSIONS 7.1 Our review of supply follows a number of recent inquiries and subsequent Inspector and SoS decisions which confirm the Council are currently unable to demonstrate a five year housing land supply. At the recent Sandgate Drive, Kippax Inquiry, the Council did not present an alternative case to the appellant s assessment of supply of circa 3 years for the period 1 st April 2016 to 31 st March Our review has sought to update the Council s five year supply position for the benefit of the SAP Examination to reflect both the 1st April 2017 base date and the work undertaken to date on the draft 2017 SHLAA. 7.3 Tested against the CS requirement, it is clear that LCC cannot demonstrate anywhere near to a deliverable five year housing land supply. This applies not only to current supply but also to supply if the SAP is adopted in its current form. It is my opinion the Council has no better than a 2.97 years deliverable supply which only marginally improves to a 3.1 yr supply with adoption of the SAP. In all likelihood and based upon past performance, not all deliverable supply will deliver. 7.4 Looking back at past performance it is clear that the District has performed poorly in terms of housing provisions and in moving forward a 20% buffer should be apply to provide choice and competition in the market and ensure an adequate HLS. The Council s average supply over the course of the last five years has averaged below 3,000 dwellings per annum and reflects the aims of the out of date UDPR. In addition, the supply to date has been reliant somewhat on circa 2,500 empty homes contributing to the supply, a finite resource that is not anticipated to continue moving forward. 7.5 The Council s long lasting fixation of directing as much development as possible towards the City Centre and Inner Area is at odds with the Framework and the CS. This focus overlooks the aims of the CS which seeks to plan, monitor and manage delivery in all sub areas in accordance with CS Policy SP7. With only a 5% affordable housing policy in these two sub areas, there is little chance of meeting the affordable housing needs of the District. 7.6 At Section 5 of our Review we analyse the quantum of the supply within the LCC Draft 2017 SHLAA. I note only 43% of the deliverable supply has the benefit of any form of residential permission and also 7,000 of the deliverable dwellings are from sites currently in alternative use. The recent S78 Inspector s appeal decisions have cast doubt over the reliance of delivery from these sources. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

43 7.7 It is now clear that the evidence presented by the Council on deliverable supply to the CS Examination (2012 AMR) has now been found to be flawed. The case for Phasing the release of SAP Allocations is no longer applicable given the current scale of under-supply in the first five years of the Plan. Any proposals to Phase the release of the SAP Allocations will simply delay delivery of housing further thus harming the wider aims of the CS. 7.8 Finally, we are aware of ongoing considerations regarding a lower housing requirement in a CS review due in While any new requirement has yet to be fully examined, we have briefly considered the implications of a lower requirement in the form of continuing the lower early years target of 3,660 (1 st April 2012 to 31 st March 2017) over the life of the Plan up to Even in this scenario, our review informs the SAP as presented and allowing for Phase 1 sites only in the next five years, the supply assessment is 3.9 years. Therefore, even with a lower requirement, the case for a phased release of allocations falls short of the Framework s requirement for a five year supply. Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August

44 APPENDIX 1 AIREBOROUGH HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

45 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Aireborough HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johnson Mowat Notes Identified Sites Riverside Mill Low Hall Road Horsforth Leeds LS19 HG Cromptons, Netherfield Rd, Guiseley HG Netherfield Road Guiseley HG Land To The Rear Of Naylor Jennings Mill Of Green Lane, Yeadon HG Green Meadows School, Bradford Road, Guiseley, LS Station Garage Henshaw Lane Yeadon HG Permission expired & site in active use. Parkside Works Otley Road Guiseley HG Permission expired January No current proposals. The Old Mill, Miry Lane, Guiseley Phase 1 Allocations Land At Silverdale Avenue, Guiseley HG Brookfield Nursing Home, Swaine Hill Terrace, Yeadon HG Site in active use as a nursing home. Kirkland House, Queensway, Yeadon, LS19 7rd HG Adjacent To Ivy House Off Larkfield Drive Rawdon Leeds HG Subject to previous refusal and no current proposals. Phase 2 Allocations Land Between Mire Beck And Ings Lane HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Land South Of Wills Gill, Guiseley, LS20 9NG HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Shaw Lane (land at), Guiseley and Banksfield Mount, Yeadon HG B Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Hollins Lane/hawstone Ave, Guiseley, LS20 HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Land To The South Of Coach Road, Guiseley HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. White House Lane, Yeadon HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Gill Lane, Yeadon LS19 HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Woodlands Drive, Rawdon HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP

46 APPENDIX 2 CITY CENTRE HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

47 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 City Centre HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johnson Mowat Notes Identified Sites 19 Springfield Mount Woodhouse Leeds LS2 9ng HG Permission expired July Site in active use. Midland Mills, Silver Street, Leeds, LS11 9yw Permission expired May 2013, no current proposals. Granary Wharf Car Park, Off Water Lane, Leeds, LS11 5ps Permission expired Nov 2016, no current proposals. 79 Clarence Road, Hunslet, Leeds, LS10 1lw Site in active use as car workshop. Evans Halshaw, Hunslet Road, Hunslet, Leeds, LS10 1ld Partly vacated site in commercial area. No activity. Hunslet Road, Hunslet, Leeds, LS10 1aR The Calls LS Permission expired, no current proposals. Cropper Gate LS Park Lane Properties, now exploring hotel development. Tower Works, Globe Road LS Manor Road LS Phase 1 UDP site with no history or evidence of delivery. Dandarra, Sweet Street/Manor Road Bath Road LS Permission expired March 2015, site partly in use. High Court LS The Gateway, Marsh Lane LS Long history, permission expired, no current proposals. Pearl Chambers The Headrow LS Richmond Street LS Site has held permission since Dec No activity. Emco Ho 5 7 New York Road LS Jayco Ho Skinner Lane LS City One (Caddick), Manor Road Uncertainty due to HS2. Caddick site mid/long term. Globe Road/water Lane LS Portland Crescent LS Rear 2 28 The Calls LS Saxton Lane / Marsh Lane LS Permission expired August 2016, no current proposals. Braims Pressings Ltd, Hunslet Road, LS Site in alternative active use Braims Pressings Marsh Lane Goods Yard Cleared site subject to no current proposals. Carlsberg Uk Ltd Brewery, Black Bull Street Site acquired by Vastint. Mid long term development. Hindle Valve / New Lane Asda Hq, Southbank, Great Wilson St Sweet Street Surface Car Park Clarence Road and Carlisle Road In active use. SHLAA confirms mid/long term. Yorkshire Evening Post Leeds Metropolitan University St Peters Church And House, Chantrell House, Leeds Parish Church, Kirkgate St Peters Place, Leeds, LS9 8AQ Permission expired Feb No current proposals. University Of Leeds Hyde Terrace, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9ln HG Clarendon Road, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9nz HG Former Leeds College of Technology, East Street Forsyth House, 5 South Parade, Leeds, LS1 5qx Pennine House, Russell Street, Leeds, LS1 5rn Kendall Carr, Hanover Mount, Woodhouse Queen Square, Leeds, LS Regent Street Sheepscar Sovereign Street Leeds LS1 4BA Permission expired, no current proposals Lands Lane, LS1 6LD The Calls, Leeds, LS2 7EY to 24 New Briggate Park Place, LS1 2RY Blenheim Terrace, Woodhouse Lane, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9HZ HG Burley House, 12 Clarendon Road, Woodhouse, Leeds, LS2 9NF St Pauls Street, Leeds, LS1 2TE Former Yorkshire Chemicals North West, Black Bull St Vacant site with no history, availability unknown. Hydro Works, Clarence Road Sayner Lane / Clarence Road Sayner Lane / Carlisle Road Vacant site with no history, availability unknown. Aspect Court, 47 Park Square East, Leeds, LS1 2NL Wellington Street, Leeds, LS1 4DL North Street, Sheepscar, Leeds, LS2 7PN THE HEADROW LS The Headrow Rivers House, 21 Park Square South The Headrow Upper Basinghall Street, Leeds, LS1 5HR Albion Street, Leeds, LS1 6AD Aire Street, Leeds, LS1 4HT

48 Globe Quay, Globe Road, Holbeck The Faversham, Springfield Mount, LS2 9NG Zicon House, Wade Lane, Leeds, LS2 8NL Temple Works Mixed Use Site Mixed use scheme being explored by LCC and Burberry. Land At David Street, Holbeck Unit 1 11 Regent Street, Sheepscar Trafalgar House, 29 Park Place Aireside development, Wellinton Place and Whitehall Road, Leeds Cookridge Street, Leeds, LS2 3AW St Pauls Street The Embankment, Sovereign Street Clarendon Road, Woodhouse Protection House, East Parade Roberts Wharf, Neptune Street, Leeds, LS9 8DX Phase 1 Allocations Brandon Road, LS3 HG Permission expired, no current proposals. 57 Great George Street LS1 HG Ground floor in active use, no current proposals. Caspar, North Street Leeds HG A Centenary House, North Street Leeds HG B Leylands Road LS2 HG Aire Street LS1 HG Site in active use with no current proposals. Water Inn Car Park HG Site in use as car park. No current proposals. Silver Street/ Midland Mills North HG Silver Street/ Midland Mills South HG Great George Street LGI MX A Site being pursued by Leeds Teaching Hospitals. Baker House, Bridge Street, Leeds, LS2 7qz MX In active use as self storage building and car park. Leeds College Of Building MX SHLAA suggests next 5 years for release of building. Regent St / Skinner Ln LS2 MX No current proposals or developer interest. Leeds International Swimming Pool Westgate Leeds MX Site being marketed for office/residential. No activity. Westgate Brotherton House LS1 2RS MX In active use with no current proposals. St Peters Square MX Permission expired, no current proposals. Quarry Hill Leeds LS2 / York Street, LS1 MX _ year mixed use scheme with no certainty on phasing. 7 Duncan Street LS1 MX Permission last approved Dec No current activity. 38 The Calls LS2 MX No current proposals and potential flood risk issues. Water Lane Railway Triangle MX Westbank, Water Lane, Leeds MX Criterion Place North MX No current proposals or developer interest

49 APPENDIX 3 EAST LEEDS HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

50 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 East Leeds HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johnson Mowat Notes Identified Sites Radial Park, Phase One Manston Lane Cross Gates HG Manston Lane HG Red Hall Lane LS17 HG Grime's Dyke York Road LS14 HG East Leeds Extension HG Whinmoor Way (pfi C) LS14 HG Swarcliffe Avenue (pfi E) LS14 HG Bridgewater Road North SHLAA indicates site unavailable until Thorpe Park, Undeveloped Non submitted Land MX Copperfields College, Cross Green, LS Requires relocation of RLFC playing pitches. Barrowby Lane, Manston, LS Rear Of Seacroft Hospital HG Rocheford Court, Pepper Lane, Hunslet, Leeds Land At Brooksbank Drive, Halton, Leeds, LS15 HG Land Between Century Way And Barrowby Lane, Austhorpe, LS15 8 HG Skelton Gate St Gregory's Primary School, Stanks Gardens, Swarcliffe Bridgewater Road South Former Site Of The Whinmoor Pub, Stanks Lane Former Stanks Fire Station, Sherburn Road Phase 1 Allocations Red Hall Offices & Playing Field, LS17 HG Former Vickers Tank Factory Site, Manston Lane, Cross Gates HG Extended lead in times due to site remediation. Wykebridge Depot, Killingbeck Bridge, LS14 HG Cartmell Drive, Halton Moor 2144B Greenspace and urban green corridor in UDP. Phase 2 Allocations Colton Road East, Colton LS15 HG A Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP

51 APPENDIX 4 INNER AREA HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

52 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Inner Area HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johnson Mowat Notes Identified Sites St Marks Flats St Marks Walk Woodhouse Leeds Land At Bridge Street, Gower Street, Regent Street Adjacent To Rose Wharf, 78 East Street, Leeds, LS Cleared site currently in use as car park. Lowfold, East Street, Leeds, LS Land Between Mabgate, Macaulay Street, Argyll Road St Marys Church And Presbytery Church Road Richmond Hill Permission expired, no current proposals. Upper Accomodation Road, LS Cleared site with no history. South Accommodation Road And Atkinson Street Leeds Former Motor Dealers Premises Church Street Hunslet In active use as accident repair centre. Beckhill Garth/Approach Permission expired August No current proposals. Skinner Lane LS Globe Road (Doncasters) LS Former TW site with expired PP. No current proposals. South Accommodation Road LS9 (adjacent to Low Fold) Doncasters Whitehall Road LS Majority of site anticipated for office use. PRS unviable. Waterloo Sidings LS Phase 1 UDP site, no current proposals and access issues. Hunslet Mill, Goodman Street LS Permission dating back to 2003 with no further activity. West Grange Road(ph 2) LS Urn Farm Middleton Road LS Shaftesbury House Beeston Road LS Cardigan Road LS Previous permission expired. Recent appeal dismissed. South Parkway (easel) LS Oak Tree Drive, Gipton Killingbeck Hospital C LS Tetleys Motor Services Ltd, 76 Goodman Street Hunslet LS Coach depot in active use. St Michaels College St Johns Road LS Mistress Lane Armley Permission expired August No current proposals. Rspca, Cavendish St Abbey Street, Kirkstall Road Former Tradex Cash And Carry Site, Harehills Lane, Leeds, LS8 3QE Leeds Girls High School, Headingley, LS6 1bn Malvern Rise, LS Bismarck Street, LS Holbeck Towers, Holbeck Moor Road Waverley Garth, LS Permission expired Sep No current proposals. Carlton Gate, LS St Luke's Green LS Din Buildings, Roundhay Road, LS8 3qd Servia Road, Leeds, LS7 1nj New Wortley Labour Club, Oak Road, New Wortley, Leeds, LS12 2hj Land Adjacent, St Hildas Church, Knowsthorpe Crescent/cross Green Lane Butterfield Manor & Richmond Court, Walter Crescent, Richmond Hill, Land North Of St Hildas Crescent, Cross Green, Leeds. LS9 0DB Boggart Hill Gardens, Seacroft, Leeds, LS Browning House, 126 Chapeltown Road, Chapeltown Pepper Road LS Dog and Gun, 601 York Road Leeds Grove Park Care Home Grove Lane Meanwood Victoria Road, Headingley, Leeds, LS Bow Street and East Street No current proposals or site history. Ellerby Road and Bow Street No planning history, site adjacent Grade I Listed Building. Ellerby Lane Victoria House, Longfield House, Buckingham House, Headingley Office Park, 8 Victoria Road, Leeds, LS Oak Villa Hotel, 55 Cardigan Road, Headingley, Leeds LS6 1DW Garnet Grove, Beeston, Leeds, LS11 5JX Burley Liberal Club, Burley Road/Willow Road Seacroft Crescent, Seacroft Bishops Way, LS York road/ South Parkway, Seacroft The Halton Moor PH, Halton Moor Ramshead Approach, Seacroft The Fellmonger, North Parkway, Seacroft, Leeds, LS14 6QS Site Of Former Spotted Cow, Top Moor Side, Holbeck, Leeds, LS11 9LH Land Adjacent To 11 Hall Road, Armley, Leeds, LS12 1UZ Blenheim Court, Woodhouse

53 Baileys House Adult Residential Centre, Baileys Hill, Seacroft Land Off Boggart Hill Road, Seacroft Oak Road, New Wortley Former Club 1340A Wykebeck Avenue, Osmondthorpe 2141A Cartmell Drive, Halton Moor 2144A Askets and Boggarts (A), Seacroft 2147A Askets and Boggarts (C), Seacroft 2147C South Parkway / Brooklands Avenue 2150B South Parkway and Brooklands, Seacroft 2150D Kirkstall Road, Leeds MX _ Phase 1 Allocations Miles Hill Primary School, Beckhill Approach HG Cleared site in LCC ownership. No current proposals. Hill Top Public House, Beckhill Grove HG LCC site not currently available. Amberton Terrace, Gipton, LS8 HG Previous permission long expired. No current proposals. Amberton Hop, Thorn Mount, Gipton HG Vacant building with no planning history. Oak Tree Mount, Gipton, LS9 HG Barncroft Close, Seacroft HG No history, low market area. SHLAA suggests mid term. Askets and Boggarts (B), Seacroft HG B Askets and Boggarts (D), Seacroft HG D Seacroft Green Social Club, Seacroft HG South Parkway/york Road Depot LS14 HG South Parkway and Brooklands, Seacroft HG A South Parkway and Brooklands, Seacroft HG C Moresdale Avenue, Foundry Mill Street, Seacroft HG Land At Hawkshead Crescent, Seacroft HG Cleared site with no history. Hill Top Works & Buslingthorpe Tannery, Buslingthorpe Lane HG _ Site in active use with permission pending since Gledhow Road/gledhow Terrace HG Cleared site, no history, in use as a car park. Hudson Road, Hudson Mill (Arcadia), Burmantofts HG A Site contains industrial units, with some in active use. Former Shaftsbury Public House, York Road, Harehills HG Land At A64 And A63 Junction, Killingbeck Bridge, Halton HG Wykebeck Avenue, Osmondthorpe HG B Site subject to previous outline for C2, now expired. Kendall Drive, Halton Moor HG Cleared LCC site in low value area. Neville Road, Halton Moor HG Cleared LCC site in low value area. Burley Willows Care Home, Willow Garth, Burley HG C2 use now ceased, no current proposals. 46 Burley Street Burley Leeds LS3 1dh HG West Of Wesley Road, North Of Tong Road, Armley HG Outline pp approved for 27 dwellings 10/05520 Holdforth Place, New Wortley, LS12 1 HG Requires possession of vacant properties, 5 year estimate Oak Road, New Wortley Gassey Fields HG B Green area adjacent British Gas facility. No history. Rear Of Round House HG In active use for parking/storage. Cambrian Street, LS11 HG Cleared LCC site with no history. Winrose Drive Greenspace, Middleton HG No current proposals, in use as active amenity space. Winrose Drive/newhall Gate, LS10 3rz HG Thomas Danby College, Roundhay Road MX Former college site bordered by B1/B2 uses, no history. Compton Arms, Compton Road, Burmantofts, Leeds, LS9 7b MX Site previously assessed as unviable. Land at Kirkstall Road and land off Wellington Road MX Phased development of apartments. New Wortley, Wellington Road Industrial Estate, Wellington Road MX Former Gas Works, Armley Gyratory MX Benyon House, Ring Road, Middleton, LS10 4AA MX Previous refusal for food store, low value market area

54 APPENDIX 5 NORTH HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

55 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 North HMCA Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory Disputed JM LCC 2017 Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Johnson Mowat Notes Site 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 Delivery SHLAA Identified Sites 3 Monk Bridge Road Meanwood Leeds Permission expired July No current proposals. Spenfield House Otley Road Headingley Leeds LS Permission expired March No current proposals. Woodside Mill Low Lane Horsforth Leeds Permission expired March No current proposals. Former Civil Service Sports Association Ground Newton Green University Of Leeds Tetley Hall Moor Road Ring Road West Park, Silk Mill Way And Iveson Drive PP granted but requires remediation and GCN trans locat. Kirkstall Forge Abbey Road Kirkstall Leeds Kirkstall Forge, Abbey Road, Ki CEG Outline PP first approved Slow progress. Eastmoor Tile Lane, Adel, LS Phase 1 UDP site with alternative uses now considered. Dunstarn Lane, Adel, LS Silk Mill Drive LS Phase 3 UDP site subject to no activity. Cookridge Hospital LS Westbrook Lane Horsforth Westbrook Lane Horsforth Phase 3 UDP site subject to no activity. Victoria Avenue Horsforth The Mansion, Woodlea Drive, LS Mansion House Mansion Gate Drive LS Government Buildings, Otley Road, LS16 5pu Clarient Production Uk Limited, Calverley Lane, Horsforth, LS18 4RP West Park Centre, LS Wigton Moor Primary School, High Ashdrive, Alwoodley, LS The Former Dutton Arms, Queenswood Drive, Headingley, Leeds Rear Shadwell Lane LS Wetherby Road, Roundhay, Leeds, LS8 2jz Rear Of The Hollies, Park Avenue, Roundhay, Leeds, LS8 2jj Horsforth Mill, Low Lane. Horsforth, LS18 4er Moor Road, Headingley, Leeds, LS6 4BG Land At Lakestream House, 142 Wetherby Road, Leeds, LS8 2LF Leeds Trinity University College, Brownberrie Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5HD Elton Lodge, Newton Road Shaw Lane, Meanwood, Leeds, LS6 4DH Ireland Wood Social Club, Iveson Drive, Lawnswood, Leeds, LS16 6NG Shire Oak Road, Headingley, Leeds, LS6 2DE Cardigan Road, Headingley, Leeds, LS6 3BJ Mary Morris House, 24 Shire Oak Road, Headingley, Leeds, LS6 2DE Alwoodley Lane, Alwoodley, Leeds, LS17 7PG Corn Mill Fold, Low Lane, Horsforth, Leeds, LS18 5NJ Commercial Road, Kirkstall, Leeds, LS5 3AD Land Rear Of Shoulder Of Mutton Public House, Garmont Road, Leeds, LS7 3LW Adel Eastmoor Land At Devonshire Lodge, Devonshire Avenue, Lidgett Park Elmete Wood School, Elmete Lane, Roundhay Moseley Wood Gardens (land off), Cookridge LS A Otley Road Bodington Hall, Lawnswood LS A Land south east of Holt Park Leisure Centre, Holt Park, Leeds 3010A Previous pp expired Aug No current proposals. Land at 116 Cardigan Road, Headingley 4058A Phase 1 Allocations Eyrie Public House, Holtdale Approach, Holt Park, LS16 7rx HG Cookridge Fire Station, Otley Old Road, LS16 7bf HG Land south east of Holt Park Leisure Centre, Holt Park, Leeds HG B Greenfield site with no history. Land Off Farrar Lane, Holt Park, LS16 7 HG LCC site used as surface car park. No proposals. Land At Brownberrie Lane, Horsforth, LS18 5 HG Land Rear High Moor Court, High Moor Avenue, Moor Allerton HG South Of The A65 From Horsforth Rab To Rawdon Crematorium, LS18 4 HG Phase 1 Green belt site, current policy conflict. Land At Clarence Road Horsforth Leeds LS18 4lb HG Former St Josephs Convalescent Home, Outwood Lane, Horsforth HG Land At Vesper Road Kirkstall Leeds LS5 3NU HG Land off Weetwood Court (adjacent to water treatment works) HG Carr Manor, Meanwood, LS6 HG Land at Cockcroft House, Cardigan Road, Headingley HG B Meanwood Road Working Mens Club Meanwood Road Leeds MX Area Within Kirkstall Hill, Beecroft Street, Commercial Road MX Site remains in part active use. No current proposals. Phase 2 Allocations Moseley Wood Gardens (land off), Cookridge LS16 HG B

56 Alwoodley Lane, Alwoodley LS17 HG B Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Dunstarn Lane (land south), Adel LS16 HG A Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Land At Broadway And Calverley Lane, Horsforth HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Site of Leeds City College, Calverley Lane, Horsforth, Leeds HG A Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Land at Kirkstall Forge, Kirkstall Road, Leeds Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Site of Leeds City College, Calverley Lane, Horsforth, Leeds HG B The Former Waste Water Treatment Work, Horsforth HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Weetwood Avenue, Leeds, LS16 5NQ HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP

57 APPENDIX 6 OUTER NORTH EAST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

58 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Outer North East HMCA Identified Sites Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory Disputed JM LCC 2017 Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Johnson Mowat Notes Site 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 Delivery SHLAA St Vincents School, 27 Church Street, Boston Spa Bramham House, Bowcliffe Road, Bramham Phase 1 UDP site, long history and no positive activity. Bowcliffe Road Bramham Linton Springs Sicklinghall Rd, Linton Grove Road, Boston Spa Spofforth Hill, Wetherby, LS Leeds Road Collingham Spen Common Lane, Bramham Permission expired March No longer marketed. Land At 3 Scarcroft View, Brandon Lane, Shadwell, LS17 9jj Land To The West Of Bay Horse Lane, Scarcroft Wood Farm, Wetherby Road, Scarcroft, LS14 3hn Land South Of Aberford Road, Barwick In Elmet, LS15 4dz Black Horse Farm, S Approach, Aberford, LS25 3au White House Farm, Bunkers Hill, Aberford, LS Sandbeck Way, Wetherby Deighton Road, Wetherby Land bound by Grange Avenue, Rudgate Park, Street 5 and Wealstun Prison, Wealstun Land at Keswick Lane, Bardsey Land at St Johns Farm, Main Street, Aberford Land at Becca Farm, Main Street, Aberford Land at Sandbeck Farm, Wetherby Land opposite The Rowans, Wetherby Land at Holywell Lane, Shadwell, Leeds Land at Nanny Goat Lane, Garforth, Leeds Land at Becca Farm/Highfield Road, Aberford, Leeds Land west of Roundhay Park Lane, Shadwell, Leeds Land at Smithy Lane, Bardsey, Leeds Norton House, Deighton House, Wetherby Land to the east of Wetherby 1233_2158_ Phase 1 Allocations Parlington Allocation Land at Sandbeck Lane Wetherby HG Mercure Hotel, Leeds Road, Wetherby HG Hotel in active use with no current proposals. Scarcroft Lodge Wetherby Road Scarcroft Leeds HG Phase 3 Allocations Church Street, Boston Spa HG _ Land To The North Of Keswick Lane, Bardsey Site Of The Blessed Sacrament Church LS22 HG Land At Farfield House, Great North Road, Bramham, LS23 6lh HG Land Adjacent To Belle Vue Road, Scholes HG

59 APPENDIX 7 OUTER NORTH WEST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

60 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Outer North West HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johson Mowat Notes Identified Sites Bramwood, 11 Creskeld Crescent, Bramhope, Leeds LS Rumplecroft Application approved for 75 units 16/06770/FU East Of Otley Garnetts Paper Mill, Mill Lane, Otley Development Engineering Services, Ilkley Road, Otley Union Court, Westgate, Otley Phase 1 Allocations Former Inglewood Children's Home, Otley, LS21 3 HG LCC site availability unknown. Ashfield Works, Westgate, Otley MX No proposals and alternative uses being explored. Westgate, Otley MX Site in active use with multiple land owners involved. Phase 2 Allocations Church Lane Adel HG Phase 3 Allocations Land At Green Acres, Moor Road, Bramhope, LS16 9HJ HG Land To Rear Of 45 Creskeld Lane, Bramhope HG Breary Lane East, Bramhope LS16 HG _3367A

61 APPENDIX 8 OUTER SOUTH HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

62 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Outer South HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johnson Mowat Notes Identified Sites Royds Green Farm Royds Green Oulton Leeds LS26 8EZ Land Off Fleet Lane,oulton,leeds Land Off Royds Lane Rothwell Leeds Aberford Rd, Woodlesford Main Street Carlton Former Bay Horse, Main St, Methley Pinfold Lane, Wmc, Methley Sharp Lane Robin Hood China Red Dragon, 3 Wakefield Road, Oulton Oulton Hall, Rothwell Lane, Rothwell, Leeds, LS26 8ZF Land at Brook Farm Ouzlewell Green Mickletown Road Methley 2129A Mickletown Road Methley 2129B year permission approved April 2015 and now expired. Phase 1 Allocations Windlesford Green Hostel, Woodlesford HG Site identified for C2 use. Site At Alma Villas, Woodlesford, Leeds, LS26 8PW HG No activity and current highways issues. Site Of Glenoit And Minerva Mills Aberford Road Oulton HG Main Street and Pitfield Road, Carlton, Wakefield HG A Aberford Road Oulton Leeds LS26 8HS MX Car showroom in active use. Phase 2 Allocations Rothwell Garden Centre, Wood Lane, Rothwell, LS26 HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Haighside Rothwell HG _ Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Bullough Lane Haigh Farm (land adjacent to), Rothwell Haigh LS26 0JY HG B Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Land At Fleet Lane / Eshald Lane, Oulton, LS26 8ht HG Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Fleet Lane And Methley Lane, Oulton, LS26 8 HG A_B_C Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Swithens Lane, Rothwell, Leeds LS26 0BS HG A Phase 2 Green Belt site with no early release in SAP. Phase 3 Allocations Land at Leadwell Lane, Robin Hood HG A Land East Of Shop Lane, Lofthouse, Wakefield, WF3 3pd HG Church Farm And Surrounding Land North Of M62, Lofthouse HG _ Hunts Farm, Main Street, Methley HG

63 APPENDIX 9 OUTER SOUTH EAST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

64 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Outer South East HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johson Mowat Notes Identified Sites Hollinshurst Depot Queen Street Allerton Bywater Station Road, Allerton Bywater South Of Old Micklefield Phase 3 UDP site with no current proposals. Manor Farm Bldgs, Micklefield Barleyhill Road Garforth Church Lane And Manor Farm, Micklefield East Garforth Primary School, Garforth, LS Moorgate Kippax Westfield Lane, Kippax, Leeds, LS25 7ja Grange Court, Church Gardens, Garforth Leeds Road, Kippax Royal Oak, Cross Hills, Kippax, Leeds, LS Land Adjacent To West Court, Park Lane, Allerton Bywater, Castleford, WF10 2AJ Ledston Hall, Hall Lane, Ledston, Leeds, WF10 2BB Stocks Blocks site, Ninelands Lane, Garforth Application pending 17/00307 Redrow delivery confirmed. Phase 1 Allocations Stourton Grange Farm South, Selby Road Ridge Road, Garforth HG B Green belt Phase 1 release. Ash Tree Primary School, Leeds Road, Kippax HG SHLAA indicates site last went to auction in Land At High Street, Kippax HG Ownership unknown and may require CPO. Barnsdale Road, Allerton Bywater HG Phase 3 Allocations Land To The South Of Pit Lane, Micklefield, LS25 HG Land To North Of Micklefield Railway Station Car Park, Micklefield, LS25 HG Newtown Farm, Micklefield HG B Selby Road/Leeds Road, Kippax HG C Whitehouse Lane, Great Preston HG B Brigshaw Lane (land to east of), Kippax HG A Ninevah Lane, Allerton Bywater HG Carlton View, Allerton Bywater HG

65 APPENDIX 10 OUTER SOUTH WEST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

66 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Outer South West HMCA Disputed Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Site Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 JM Delivery LCC 2017 SHLAA Johnson Mowat Notes Identified Sites The Old Hall Yard Main Street East Ardsley WF3 2ap Permission expired February No activity. Barkly Road LS Permission previously expired March No activity. Fall Lane (west) East Ardsley Sharp Lane C Lingwell Road, Middleton, LS Bradford Road, Ardsley Common Woolin Crescent West Ardsley Phase 1 UDP site with no activity. Park Mills South St Morley Permission expired April No current proposals. Manor House Farm, Baghill Green Wa Albert Road Morley Permission expired Dec In use as haulage depot. Royds Lane, Wortley, LS Land Off Bradford Road, East Ardsley WF a Waterword Close, Tingley, WF3 1ql Nethertown Pig Farm, Old Lane, Drighlington, Leeds, BD11 1LU Owlers Farm Pas, Wide Lane, Morley Corporation Street Morley Permission expired June No current proposals. Batley Road West Ardsley Wakefield Road Drighlington Leeds Road, Lofthouse, WF3 3qd Land Off Daisy Hill Close, Morley, Leeds St Marys Congregational Church, Commercial Street, Morley, Leeds Permission expired June No current proposals. Leeds Valve Co Ltd, Town End, Gildersome, Morley, Leeds Back Lane, Drighlington, BD11 1LS Timber Tops Forsythia Avenue East Ardsley Fall Lane East Ardsley Reedsdale Gardens Gildersome Phase 3 UDP site with no activity. SOUTH PARADE MORLEY Summerfield Court Residential Home, Britannia Road Morley, Leeds Former Railway Public House, Moor Knoll Lane, East Ardsley, WF3 2ED Land Along Park Wood Road, Beeston, Leeds, LS Throstle Terrace Towcester Avenue Former Site of Barfield House, Britannia Road, Morley Quarry Court, High Street, Morley Valley Mills, Whitehall Road, Drighlington Bruntcliffe Road and Scott lane, Morley Leeds LS A Bruntcliffe Road, Morley 1281A Bruntcliffe Road, Morley 1281B Haigh Moor Road Jude's Point, West Ardsley, WF3 1EF Plan App 12/01850/RM 1330A Throstle Lane Playing Fields, Middleton LS A Playing pitches in active use. Phase 3 UDP site. Spring Gardens Drighlington 2124_ Phase 1 Allocations Site of Makro Supermarket on Royds Lane, Lower Wortley, Leeds HG No activity and site in use as cash and carry. Park Lees, St Anthony's Road, Beeston HG No activity and owners exploring other uses. Jubilee Works, Old Lane, Beeston HG Sugar Mill, Oakhurst Avenue (just Off Dewsbury Road), Leeds HG Off Whitehall Road Drighlington BD11 1bx HG Drakes extrusion site in active use. Finning (uk) Ltd, Gelderd Road, Gildersome, LS27 7JS HG Finning UK currently occupying site. Land North Of Albert Road, Morley HG Albert Drive, Morley HG A_ Lower Moor Farm Pas, Albert Drive, Morley HG Joseph Priestley College, Peel Street, Morley HG Rod Mills Lane, High Street, Morley HG No proposals. Part of site in active use. Britannia Road, Morley HG A Long standing SHLAA site subject to no activity. Tingley Mills Tingley Common Morley Leeds HG Numerous commercial occupiers in active use. Sissons Farm, Middleton, LS10 HG A_C Sissons Drive/sissons Road, Middleton HG Site in low value market area subject to no proposals. Throstle Mount, Middleton HG Site in low value market area subject to no proposals. Thorpe Square, Middleton, LS10 HG Thorpe Hill Farm, Lingwell Gate Lane, Thorpe HG Land Of Long Thorpe Lane, Thorpe, Wakefield, WF3 3bz HG Phase 2 Allocations Whitehall Road (south of) Harpers Farm HG B Phase 2 site with no early release in SAP.

67 Lane Side Farm Pas Morley HG Outline application pending 16/02988 Persimmon Churwell (land to the east of) LS27 HG A Phase 2 site with no early release in SAP. Haigh Wood, Ardsley HG A Haigh Wood, Ardsley HG C Phase 3 Allocations Site of Estoro Farm Black Gate Bradford Road, Thorpe Lane, Tingley HG B_D Highfield Drive/Harthill Lane (land off), Gildersome LS27 HG A Westerton Road, Tingley, WF3 HG _2105_3365_ Westfield Farm Drighlington, Bd11 HG Street Lane, Gildersome HG _ Gelderd Road/M621, Gildersome HG A Land off Haigh Moor Road HG A Land at Moor Knoll Lane East Ardsley HG

68 APPENDIX 11 OUTER WEST HMCA HOUSING TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

69 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Outer West HMCA Johnson Mowat Ten Year Housing Trajectory Disputed JM LCC 2017 Site Address Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity Johnson Mowat Notes Site 2017/ / / / / / / / / / /28 Delivery SHLAA Identified Sites Land North Of Morrisons Swinnow Road Swinnow Leeds Daytona Works Carlisle Road Pudsey Leeds LS28 8PL Moorfield Road / Tower Works Permission expired Dec South Park Mills, 15, 15a, 16 And 17, Acrivan Ltd, Fulneck Salvation Army, 139 Broad Lane, Bramley, Leeds Fairfield Grove (fairfields), Bramley Cliff House Fawcett Lane LS Pollard Lane LS Elder Road/Swinnow Road LS Permission expired January Canal Wharf Wyther Lane LS Westfield Mill Broad Lane LS Permission expired. Ashley Road LS Berry Mount Wood Lane LS Permission expired June No current activity. Bagley Lane Farsley Delph End Pudsey Charity Farm, Swinnow Lane End, Pudsey Phase 1 UDP site with no activity. Robin Lane/longfield Road, Pudsey Pudsey Road, Bramley, LS Bradford Road Stanningley Stylo House, Harrogate Road, Apperley Bridge Bradford Bd Park Spring Primary School, Swinnow, LS Calverley Lane, Farsley Farsley Fairfield Infants School, Cotefields Avenue, Farsley, Pudsey, LS28 5EE Elder Road LS Permission expired March Lumby Lane, Pudsey Old Road, Farsley, Pudsey, LS28 5dj The Old Vic, 17 Whitecote Hill, Bramley, Leeds Green Lane, Pudsey, LS28 8jn St Lawrence House, Crawshaw Road, Pudsey, LS28 7ub Town End Works, Back Lane, Bramley, Leeds, LS13 4es Land And Premises Opposite 60 To 68, Half Mile Lane, Stanningley, Pudsey Roker Lane/Hare Lane Whitecote Hill LS Former Garage Site, Harley Green Sunny Bank Mills, Town Street, Farsley, LS28 5UJ The Swinnow, Swinnow Lane, Swinnow, Leeds, LS13 4QX Crowther Avenue, Calverley, Pudsey, LS28 5SA Broadlea Street, Leeds, LS13 2SD Land South Of By Pass, Hough End Lane, Bramley, Leeds, LS13 4ET Block 1, Whingate House, Whingate, Armley Former Farnley Working Mens Club, Butt Lane, Farnley, Leeds, LS12 5BD Wood Nook, North of the B6155, Pudsey Stonebridge Mills, Farnley Hough Top Court Amenity Space, Hough Top, Pudsey Heights Lane, Armley Site Of The Former Christ Church Vicarage, Armley Ridge Road, Leeds, LS Green Flag House And Park House, Cote Lane, Farsley, Pudsey, LS28 5GF Land Off Carlise Road, Pudsey Bramley Liberal Club, 14 Hough Lane, Bramley Land Adjacent To 320 Pudsey Road, Bramley Phase 1 Allocations Calverley Cutting, Leeds Liverpool Canal, Apperley Bridge HG Green belt Phase 1 release. Airedale Mills, Rodley HG Substantially vacant site subject to no activity. Hillside Reception Centre Leeds and Bradford Road Bramley HG Raynville Road/Raynville Crescent, Bramley (East) HG A Land Adjoining Woodhall Road Gain Lane, Thornbury Bd3 HG Green belt Phase 1 release in active use. Sunnybank Lane, Pudsey HG Daleside Road, Pudsey HG Hill Foot Farm, Pudsey HG Owlcotes Farm/Owlcotes Gardens Pudsey HG A_ Covered reservour, land partly unregistered. Land At Waterloo Road, Pudsey LS28 HG Green belt Phase 1 release. Dick Lane, Thornbury, Bradford, BD3 HG _ Site promoted by landowner in low value market area.

70 Land At Rear Of 41 Tyersal Avenue, Tyersal, Bradford, Bd4 8hj HG Site promoted by landowner, no current proposals. Land Off Tyersal Road, Pudsey, Bd4 8ez HG Green belt Phase 1 release. Land Off Tyersal Court, Tyersal Bd4 8 HG Green belt Phase 1 release. Harper Gate Farm, Tyersal Lane, Bradford BD4 0RD HG A Station Street, Pudsey HG Musgrave Court Crawshaw Road Pudsey HG Former residential care home, no activity. Houghside Pudsey, LS28 HG A_3377A Green belt Phase 1 release. Regina House, Ring Road, Bramley, LS13 4et HG Land At Acres Hall Avenue, Pudsey, LS28 HG _ Wortley High School And Leeds West City Learning Centre, Swallow Crescent HG Thornhill Road, Upper Wortley, LS12 4lg HG Oldfield Lane (leeds City Boy's Pitch) LS12 HG Requires relocation of playing pitches, no current strategy. Stanningly Road, LS12 3qs HG _ Site subject to no activity. Site At Waterloo Lane And Waterloo Way, LS13 2, Leeds MX Low value market area in active retail use. Wortley Low Mills Whitehall Road MX Vacant employment allocation. No activity. Phase 2 Allocations Rodley Lane (land at) Calverley Lane, Calverley LS19 HG A Land On North East Side Of Rodley Lane, Rodley HG Phase 3 Allocations Land Off Upper Carr Lane, Calverley HG Calverley Lane, Calverley HG

71 APPENDIX 12 JOHNSON MOWAT TEN YEAR TRAJECTORY Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

72 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Johnson Mowat Housing Trajectory Totals (Including Phase 1 Green Belt Releases) 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /28 Aireborough City Centre East Leeds Inner Area North Outer North East Outer North West Outer South Outer South East Outer South West Outer West Windfall Empty Homes Total Johnson Mowat Housing Trajectory Totals (Excluding Phase 1 Green Belt Releases) 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /28 Aireborough City Centre East Leeds Inner Area North Outer North East Outer North West Outer South Outer South East Outer South West Outer West Windfall Empty Homes Total Phase 1 Green Belt Releases 2012/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /28 Aireborough City Centre East Leeds Inner Area North Outer North East Outer North West Outer South Outer South East Outer South West Outer West Total

73 APPENDIX 13 JOHNSON MOWAT FIVE YEAR SUPPLY CALCULATION Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

74 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Housing Delivery 1st April 2012 to 31st March 2017 Leeds Annual Requirement 1st April 2012 to 31st March 2017 Leeds Annual Requirement 1st April 2017 to 31st March d/pa 4700 d/pa Year Requirement Delivery Shortfall 2012/ / / / / Total

75 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 18/08/2017 Johnson Mowat Five Year Supply 1st April 2017 to 31st March 2022 Requirement Annual Requirement 4700 Five Year Requirement Shortfall 1st April 2012 to 31st March Five Year Requirement + Shortfall NPPF Buffer (20%) 5595 Total Five Year Requirement Adjusted Annual Requirement 6714 Supply Aireborough 375 City Centre 3089 East Leeds 1910 Inner Area 3910 North 1790 Outer North East 1076 Outer North West 724 Outer South 469 Outer South East 1032 Outer South West 1819 Outer West 2099 Windfall 2500 Empty Homes 500 Total Supply Five Year Supply 1st April 2017 to 31st March

76 APPENDIX 14 PHASE 1, 2 & 3 SAP GREEN BELT RELEASES Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

77 LCC SAP DPD - Green Belt Releases Aireborough HMCA Phase 2 Allocations Land Between Mire Beck And Ings Lane HG Land South Of Wills Gill, Guiseley, LS20 9NG HG Shaw Lane (land at), Guiseley and Banksfield Mount, Yeadon HG B Hollins Lane/hawstone Ave, Guiseley, LS20 HG White House Lane, Yeadon HG Gill Lane, Yeadon LS19 HG Woodlands Drive, Rawdon HG East Leeds HMCA Phase 1 Allocations Red Hall Offices & Playing Field, LS17 HG Phase 2 Allocations Colton Road East, Colton LS15 HG A North HMCA Phase 1 Allocations South Of The A65 From Horsforth Rab To Rawdon Crematorium, LS18 4 HG Phase 2 Allocations Alwoodley Lane, Alwoodley LS17 HG B Dunstarn Lane (land south), Adel LS16 HG A Land At Broadway And Calverley Lane, Horsforth HG Site of Leeds City College, Calverley Lane, Horsforth, Leeds HG A Land at Kirkstall Forge, Kirkstall Road, Leeds The Former Waste Water Treatment Work, Horsforth HG Weetwood Avenue, Leeds, LS16 5NQ HG Outer North East HMCA Phase 1 Allocations Parlington Allocation Phase 3 Allocations Land To The North Of Keswick Lane, Bardsey Site Of The Blessed Sacrament Church LS22 HG Land At Farfield House, Great North Road, Bramham, LS23 6lh HG Outer North West HMCA Phase 3 Allocations Land At Green Acres, Moor Road, Bramhope, LS16 9HJ HG Land To Rear Of 45 Creskeld Lane, Bramhope HG Outer South HMCA Phase 1 Allocations Site At Alma Villas, Woodlesford, Leeds, LS26 8PW HG Phase 2 Allocations Rothwell Garden Centre, Wood Lane, Rothwell, LS26 HG Haighside Rothwell HG _ Bullough Lane - Haigh Farm (land adjacent to), Rothwell Haigh LS26 0JY HG B Land At Fleet Lane / Eshald Lane, Oulton, LS26 8ht HG Fleet Lane And Methley Lane, Oulton, LS26 8 HG A_B_C Swithens Lane, Rothwell, Leeds LS26 0BS HG A Phase 3 Allocations Land at Leadwell Lane, Robin Hood HG A 60 0 Land East Of Shop Lane, Lofthouse, Wakefield, WF3 3pd HG Church Farm And Surrounding Land North Of M62, Lofthouse HG _ Hunts Farm, Main Street, Methley HG Outer South East HMCA Phase 1 Allocations Stourton Grange Farm South, Selby Road - Ridge Road, Garforth HG B Phase 3 Allocations Land To North Of Micklefield Railway Station Car Park, Micklefield, LS25 HG Newtown Farm, Micklefield HG B 42 0 Selby Road/Leeds Road, Kippax HG C 40 0 Whitehouse Lane, Great Preston HG B 40 0 Brigshaw Lane (land to east of), Kippax HG A 76 0 Ninevah Lane, Allerton Bywater HG Outer South West HMCA Phase 1 Allocations Site Address Disputed Site Plan Ref SHLAA Ref SHLAA Capacity LCC 2017 SHLAA

78 Albert Drive, Morley HG A_ Sissons Farm, Middleton, LS10 HG A_C Thorpe Hill Farm, Lingwell Gate Lane, Thorpe HG Land Of Long Thorpe Lane, Thorpe, Wakefield, WF3 3bz HG Phase 2 Allocations Whitehall Road (south of) - Harpers Farm HG B Churwell (land to the east of) LS27 HG A Phase 3 Allocations Site of Estoro Farm Black Gate Bradford Road, Thorpe Lane, Tingley HG B_D Highfield Drive/Harthill Lane (land off), Gildersome LS27 HG A 76 0 Westerton Road, Tingley, WF3 HG _2105_3365_ Westfield Farm Drighlington, Bd11 HG Street Lane, Gildersome HG _ Gelderd Road/M621, Gildersome HG A Land off Haigh Moor Road HG A 41 0 Land at Moor Knoll Lane East Ardsley HG Outer West HMCA Phase 1 Allocations Calverley Cutting, Leeds Liverpool Canal, Apperley Bridge HG Land Adjoining Woodhall Road - Gain Lane, Thornbury Bd3 HG Daleside Road, Pudsey HG Land At Waterloo Road, Pudsey LS28 HG Dick Lane, Thornbury, Bradford, BD3 HG _ Land Off Tyersal Road, Pudsey, Bd4 8ez HG Land Off Tyersal Court, Tyersal Bd4 8 HG Houghside Pudsey, LS28 HG A_3377A Land At Acres Hall Avenue, Pudsey, LS28 HG _ Phase 2 Allocations Rodley Lane (land at) - Calverley Lane, Calverley LS19 HG A Land On North East Side Of Rodley Lane, Rodley HG Phase 3 Allocations Land Off Upper Carr Lane, Calverley HG Calverley Lane, Calverley HG Phase 1 Allocations Total = 2754 Phase 2 Allocations Total = 1651 Phase 3 Allocations Total = 0

79 APPENDIX 15 JOHNSON MOWAT SUB-AREA MONITORING (SP7) Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

80 Leeds Site Allocations DPD & 2017 SHLAA Review of Housing Land Supply 14/08/2017 HMCA Forward Supply Monitoring (Including Phase 1 Green Belt Releases) CS Target (SP7) CS Annual SP7 +/- SP7 +/- SP7 +/- 2012/ / / / /17* 2017/ / / / /22 Average (d/pa) Apr 12 to Mar 17 Apr 17 to Mar 22 Apr 12 to Mar 22 Aireborough City Centre East Leeds Inner Area North Outer North East Outer North West Outer South Outer South East Outer South West Outer West Empty Homes Windfall Older Persons Housing (C2) Demolitions Total *Figures to be confirmed by LCC and reflect 14% uplift to 2015/16 sub-area delivery HMCA Forward Supply Monitoring (Excluding Phase 1 Green Belt Releases) CS Target (SP7) CS Annual SP7 +/- SP7 +/- SP7 +/- 2012/ / / / /17* 2017/ / / / /22 Average (d/pa) Apr 12 to Mar 17 Apr 17 to Mar 22 Apr 12 to Mar 22 Aireborough City Centre East Leeds Inner Area North Outer North East Outer North West Outer South Outer South East Outer South West Outer West Empty Homes Windfall Older Persons Housing (C2) Demolitions Total *Figures to be confirmed by LCC and reflect 14% uplift to 2015/16 sub-area delivery

81 APPENDIX AMR TABLE A (HOUSING TRAJECTORY) Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

82 Forward Planning & Implementation Data Team March 2013 LEEDS LOCAL DEVELOPMENT FRAMEWORK AUTHORITY MONITORING REPORT

83 Leeds City Council: LDF Authority Monitoring Report Table A: Leeds Housing Trajectory as at 30 September 2012 Year / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / to 2028 Identified for completion - Gross 2,314 4,032 4,083 3,750 5,801 5,056 4,698 4,094 5,015 8,497 8,046 7,544 6,562 5,066 3,751 2,652 78,647 Projected Net Completions 2,064 3,782 3,833 3,500 5,551 4,806 4,448 3,844 4,765 8,247 7,796 7,294 6,312 4,816 3,501 2,402 74,897 Cumulative Completions - Net 2,064 5,846 9,679 13,179 18,730 23,536 27,984 31,828 36,593 44,840 52,636 59,930 66,242 71,058 74,559 76,961 76,961 Managed Delivery Target - Core Strategy 3,660 3,660 3,660 3,660 3,660 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 4,700 Cumulative - Core Strategy 3,660 7,320 10,980 14,640 18,300 23,000 27,700 32,400 37,100 41,800 46,500 51,200 55,900 60,600 65,300 70,000 Monitor - No. dwellings above or below development requirement -1,596-1,474-1,301-1, ,040 6,136 8,730 10,342 10,458 9,259 6,961 Number of years left in Plan(s)

84 Leeds City Council: LDF Authority Monitoring Report Figure A: Leeds Housing Trajectory as at 30 September 2012 Leeds Housing Trajectory 2012/13 to 2027/28 as at 30 September ,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 Units 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10, / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /28 Year Cumulative Completions Projected Net Completions Cumulative Core Strategy Total 39

85 APPENDIX 17 LEEDS HOUSING BACKGROUND PAPER (APRIL 2013) Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

86 Core Strategy Leeds Local Development Framework Development Plan Document Housing Background Paper April 2013

87 greenfield site submissions as PDL submissions. Whilst the balance has not really changed with each update, it has to be recognised that the greenfield sites tend to be larger, so the total dwelling capacity of the greenfield site submissions is considerably higher than that of PDL submissions. This means that a lower target of 55% on PDL beyond 2016/17 is more realistic but the City Council hopes can be exceeded. Table 6: SHLAA Sites by Year and PDL/Greenfield status SHLAA Year PDL GF Mixed Grand Total Grand Total Table 7: SHLAA Dwellings by Year and PDL/Greenfield status SHLAA Year PDL GF Mixed Grand Total Grand Total Phasing Leeds City Council is committed to housing delivery. However, the Core Strategy clearly outlines other priorities including the achievement of a sustainable pattern of locations and supporting the regeneration of inner areas. Policy H1 expects consideration to be given to achievement of Leeds brownfield PDL target as well as ensuring that housing land phases are released to meet need Leeds City Council acknowledges that land supply alone is not the reason why housing delivery might not meet the housing targets. The SHMA identified in Figure 6.17 that based on forecasted incomes, 35% of the future household incomes will not be enough to afford either 1 Bed Affordable Rent or Average Social rented property prices Whilst the housing forecast includes all housing need, the analysis on ability to access housing clearly shows that a large portion of that housing need may not be delivered unless new products or forms of housing delivery are achieved. Policy H1 considers this concern and states that the Council will release land in 28

88 order to ensure Leeds has a five year supply (plus appropriate buffer) as required by the NPPF, but also to ensure: Delivery on PDL in the past year has met the target Delivery on PDL is expected to meet the target for the next five years; or A sufficient number of sites, equivalent to the five year supply figure minus the windfall allowance are reasonable capable of being developed This means that the five year supply isn t only about total quantum, as the third bullet point, indicates, but also about past and future development on PDL. By having the link to PDL delivery, it will help ensure that the brownfield PDL target is met and that there are some measure to ensure that regeneration initiatives are undertaken as part of the overall package to delivering housing. 8. Policy H3 Density of Residential Development: 8.1. This policy sets out desired levels of density for housing development. The need for a density policy is linked to the evidence base in the form of the SHLAA. The SHLAA informed both the future distribution of housing but also the density assumptions. If the density assumptions in the SHLAA are not carried forward, additional land will be required to meet the housing requirement. Table 8: SHLAA density assumptions compared to those found in Policy H3 SHLAA Zones SHLAA CSPD Zones Core Strategy Publication Draft City Centre 350 Edge of City Centre 60 City Centre and fringe 65 Other urban areas Edge of urban areas 40 Other urban areas 35 Fringe urban areas Rural 30 Smaller Settlements The table illustrates that for the most part, the SHLAA densities have been carried forward. Only for the City Centre is there a large difference. However it is emphasized that these are minimum densities that are to be achieved, and some very high residential densities can be expected particularly for infill sites that demand 100% plot ratios for townscape reasons. However in order to enable family housing and different forms of development, the minimum density of 65 is considered appropriate. The submission of planning application 29

89 APPENDIX 18 DELOITTE CRANE SURVEY FEBRUARY 2017 Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

90 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017

91

92 Contents The Report 02 Key findings 03 Leeds development snapshot Introduction Office Hotel, Leisure and Retail Residential Education, Research and Student Housing Connectivity Outlook Development table Contacts 24

93 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 The Report What? A report which measures the volume of development taking place across central Leeds and its impact. Property types include office, retail, leisure, residential, student housing, education and hotels. Where? Leeds, covering the central office submarkets; city core, city centre, fringe and the waterfringe areas. Who? Developers building new schemes or undertaking significant refurbishment of the following: Size minimum = office 10,000 sq ft, retail 10,000 sq ft, residential 25 units, education, leisure and hotel schemes significant schemes for inclusion. When? The report covers the period from January 2016 to December How? Our Real Estate team in Leeds have monitored construction activity across the city centre. Our field research is then verified with direct industry links and in house property experts. 02

94 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Key findings 16 new starts above average number (annual average 12) New construction activity in 2016 has been led by the office sector (six new starts) Four hotel new starts the most in our survey history 2016 saw 596,500 sq ft of retail space complete, above the 232,478 sq ft average 2016 saw the highest level of office space completed in our survey history at 712,960 sq ft ( ) 619 residential units under construction 03

95 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Leeds development snapshot Which sectors are the most active? (Number of schemes under construction) 2 Education 1 Student Housing 4 Hotels 5 5 Residential Office Number of new construction starts Average Hotel construction activity is 72% up on % HOTEL HOTEL Completed schemes in 2016 Office space under construction ,690 sq ft Office space completed Retail space completed Residential units under construction Hotel beds under construction 712,960 sq ft 596,500 sq ft

96 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Introduction 2016 has been the year that a number of longstanding and high profile developments have completed boosting the provision of commercial and residential space on offer in Leeds. Our research shows however, that 16 new developments started in 2016, equal to that of 2015, highlighting continued developer and investor interest in the city. The development of new office space reached a peak in 2016 with the highest level of new space completed since As a result the total volume of office space under construction has dropped compared to that recorded at the end of Our research has however, seen six new starts in this survey. In 2016, Leeds' attractiveness as a retail destination was further boosted by the completion of the Victoria Gate scheme. Leeds boasts a premier league retail offering that exceeds that provided in other UK cities and has brought new retailers to the region also saw two new city centre hotels opening during the year and construction work starting on a further two hotels, which are due to open in Whilst this may still be a hangover from the last economic downturn, it may also be a result of the incorrect perception that Leeds still has an abundance of vacant city centre flats. Nevertheless a growing attractiveness of city living is expected to help the residential market to grow over the next 12 months, as the range of supporting services and facilities available to perspective residents increases. Continued Council led support for the redevelopment of the South Bank and a bid for Capital of Culture in 2023 highlights two of the opportunities to stimulate further construction activity in Leeds, not only in 2017 but over the coming years. These are opportunities that could be embraced by both the public and private sector in order to further elevate Leeds' global standing. Number of new starts per Crane Survey New starts Investment in the higher education sector has continued with new development activity hot on the heels of completed schemes during the year Leeds continues to see slow progress in the residential market. Whilst there has been a year on year increase in the number of new residential units being brought forward, the city is still significantly behind the level required in the Leeds Core Strategy Source: Deloitte Real Estate

97 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Office Volume of office construction drops following highest level of completions The latest Crane Survey research records six new starts in 2016, an increase on the 2015 figure. This level of activity demonstrates that office development remains a critical part of the physical development programme for Leeds City Centre. The amount of office development under construction has reduced by 44% year on year largely as a result of the high level of completed office space. Whilst the office market in Leeds is generally improving, there remains a focus on office refurbishment (five of the six new starts) to cater for the demand rather than developers providing new build developments in new locations. Three of the refurbishments started and completed in 2016; 12 Greek Street, Leeds Dock and Concordia Works. The largest refurbishment to start in 2016 is 7 Park Row. Previously, the former regional head office of Lloyd s Bank. This project will deliver 40,887 sq ft of Grade A space upon completion together with a ground floor restaurant unit. This development is due to complete in Q The final refurbishment to start in 2016 was at the Leeming Building where 27,000 sq ft of floorspace will be provided. Both of these schemes will offer additional choice for future occupiers. Leeds: Total volume of office construction per survey sq ft 900, , , , , ,000 The additional floorspace which has been released at Leeds Dock is continuing to help support the growth of the technology and media sector in this location with new occupiers including Hatch Communications and iseepr. Both these occupiers are new entrants to the Leeds market with Leeds Dock now becoming an established office location for the TMT sector. The location is also complemented by a number of leisure and entertainment businesses, including the recently opened Dock 29 bar, North Star Coffee and Primal Gym. 300, , , Source: Deloitte Real Estate

98 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Wellington Place is the only new build development to commence in 2016, with work having started on the scheme in Q The six storey office will deliver 106,594 sq ft of lettable space. MEPC is developing this on a speculative basis following the success of the wider Wellington Place development. The continued investment in this once stalled scheme shows a sustained and positive attempt to attract investment into Leeds. The development now provides an attractive location primarily aimed at financial services who wish to occupy a central position in Leeds financial district. The last 12 months has seen continued investment in established office locations to the south of the city forming a ribbon of development being provided from Wellington Place across to Leeds Dock. As further developments start to come forward across the South Bank it is likely that the south of city centre will remain the prime focus for high quality office developments. Leeds continued to deliver a variety of Grade A office space during 2016 both pre let and importantly on a speculative basis. However the total office space under construction has decreased since 2015 to 460,690 sq ft; a total decrease of approximately 360,000 sq ft. The delivery of new Grade A space continues to be driven by sustained demand from professional services tenants the stalwart of the Leeds office occupational market. New occupiers however are entering the Leeds market particularly in the TMT sector. Number of new office starts per Crane Survey

99 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Leeds: Office development pipeline sq ft 800, , , , ,000 Professional services continue to drive highest demand Despite the economic uncertainty throughout 2016, occupiers have retained a business as usual attitude to their office requirements and there continues to be a sustained demand for the office space constructed across the city. 300, , , Central Square was the largest office scheme to complete in 2016, which benefitted from the 55,000 sq ft pre let with PwC. Before completion of the building, RSM agreed the letting of a further 25,420 sq ft, along with national retailers on the ground floor. Completed Available U/C Let U/C 10 year average Source: Deloitte Real Estate Two schemes remain under construction since the last report. Merrion House where Leeds City Council will solely occupy the 170,000 sq ft scheme, with the development due to complete in Q Whilst much for the demand for Grade A space has been indigenous to date, Shoosmiths announced it would be opening its first office in Leeds, taking 9,720 sq ft at Bruntwood s latest scheme, Platform (formerly City House). The law firm will temporarily take space at West One in Q before moving to their permanent offices at Platform upon completion of the scheme in Q

100 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Highest level of completion The volume of office floorspace completed in 2016 has surpassed the level reached in 2007 and is now at its highest level in the history of the Leeds Crane Survey, which is now in its 10th year. A total of ten schemes completed in 2016, bringing 713,945 sq ft of office floorspace to Leeds. Whilst nearly half of the completed schemes were refurbishments of existing stock, it was the new build developments which comprised the vast majority of floorspace as 535,023 sq ft of new build Grade A space completed (75% of the total). Central Square was the most significant completion in 2016, totalling 201,700 sq ft. Additional schemes of scale included 3 Sovereign Square (a joint venture between Kier and Bruntwood) which totalled over 83,000 sq ft, with Addleshaw Goddard agreeing to occupy 51,000 sq ft. Leeds City Council provided a significant vote of confidence in the city following Brexit by acquiring this scheme for its own investment portfolio. Other notable completions include 5 Wellington Place, which is the new home to Ward Hadaway, and 6 Wellington Place where Sky Betting & Gaming, Squire Patton Boggs, Equifax and Shulmans occupy the 104,000 sq ft office. Leeds: Office completions Today 0.7m sq ft (2016) 0.3m sq ft 10 year average Previous high 0.5m sq ft (2007) Lowest 0.03m sq ft (2011) 09

101 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Hotel, Leisure and Retail Leeds completed retail space 2016 Annual average 232,478 sq ft 596,500 sq ft Significant retail development completes Leeds has moved up the retail ranking following the completion of Victoria Gate. The eagerly awaited development opened in October, providing 23 new stores, of which 17 were new to Leeds. The latest shopping destination provides 596,500 sq ft of retail space and is made up of brands such as John Lewis, Aspinal of London, Russell & Bromley, Ghost, Nespresso and Calvin Klein. Given the volume of retail development delivered in the city over the last five years, it is unlikely that any significant developments will come forward in the near future, although there will, we suspect, continue to be growth in the leisure market. Number of new hotel starts per Crane Survey New starts Source: Deloitte Real Estate 10

102 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Hotel sector grows The hotel sector has seen a total of four new starts in Three of these developments comprised the introduction of the Mansio chain by Samara Group. These are serviced apartments which provide long or short stay accommodation and are located at the The Headrow (26 apartments rooms) and Basinghall (23 apartments) both began and completed in 2016, with a third development due to open near Park Square in Q (25 apartments). The success of events in the city has however seen an increase in plans for new hotels, with further developments proposed by Heeton Holdings at Bridge Street, the Vastint backed redevelopment of the former Tetley brewery site and the McAleer & Rushe scheme at Central Park. The increase in the provision of hotels will contribute towards the Leeds submission bid for the European Capital of Culture in Leeds: Hotel development pipeline No. rooms Construction works commenced at the Premier Inn at Whitehall Road which will provide 136 rooms and is expected to complete in Q Development continues on the Dakota Hotel on Greek Street by Evans Property Group and the Ibis Hotel at the Merrion Centre being constructed by Town Centre Securities. The Ibis hotel is due to complete in Q1 2017, whilst the Dakota Hotel is due to open in Q The hotel sector has benefited from an increase in visitor numbers from both business and recreational tourism, with key events such as the World Triathlon and the now annual Tour de Yorkshire contributing. The opening of key attractions such as Victoria Gate and the ongoing success of Leeds Arena have also helped boost hotel trade. However, despite continued hotel development, the city does not yet have a 5* hotel to provide the highest level of comfort and quality for visitors Completed U/C Source: Deloitte Real Estate

103 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Residential Slow residential growth Leeds has continued to see slow growth in the residential market after a prolonged period without any development, with just three new starts in This is half the amount seen in Once again, developers continue to make use of the permitted development rights which allow the conversion of B1 office buildings into C3 residential use, with two of the three new starts being brought forward under this method. Leeds continues to underperform in terms of the city centre residential market and remains significantly behind other regional cities despite having a strong city offer. The only new build residential development to start in 2016 was at X1 Aire, the JV between Knight Knox and X1, which will bring an additional 147 units when completed in Q Three residential schemes completed in 2016, providing 174 units. Similarly, none of these developments were new build residential schemes and they were all office to residential conversions at Park Square Residence, Crown Residence and Tate House. Whilst residential conversions have been prevalent over recent years, we predict that Leeds is likely to witness more new build schemes in the coming years with pipeline schemes including those planned for Bridge Street, the Tetley site and the former Yorkshire Post site. This is however at a slower rate than new build schemes are coming forward in other regional cities and a more innovative approach will need to be undertaken by both the public and private sector if the city is to meet the current requirement of 10,200 new homes in the city centre by Leeds: Residential development pipeline No. of units The two remaining new starts, Havana Residence and 5 South Parade, benefitted from the office to residential permitted development rights. The Havana Residence, formerly Zicon House, will comprise of 79 units when complete. The conversion of 5 South Parade will also provide 34 studio apartments upon completion. The East Point development also remains under construction and is due to complete in Q and will provide 39 units. Work also continues on the Clarendon Quarter development located at St John s Road, which will provide 320 apartments when it completes in Q ,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Completed U/C Source: Deloitte Real Estate 12

104 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Education, Research and Student Housing Continued investment in university campuses Continued work at the University of Leeds will deliver the refurbishment of both the Student s Union and Healthcare Spaces, and also the development of the new 40m Nexus Innovation and Enterprise Centre. It is also notable that the refurbishment of the Worsley building completed in Q Works are ongoing at the School of Chemical and Process Engineering (due to complete Q3 2017) and the Edward Boyle Library (expected to complete Q1 2017). Leeds can expect continued investment in the universities, with planned investments such as the University of Leeds North East Quarter and Centre for Engineering and Physical Sciences. The new build 63m North East Quarter will provide a gateway to the university campus, whilst the 96m Centre for Engineering and Physical Sciences development will combine existing teaching facilities into one building. Both developments are expected to start in early The University of Leeds will also look to build on the success of having been named University of the Year 2017 by The Times and The Sunday Times Good University Guide. Full time education remains strong The Ruth Gorse Academy completed and opened in Q to students aged between 11 and 18. The free school was brought forward by the Gorse Academies Trust and Leeds Sustainable Development Group, and is a major step towards providing social infrastructure that will support family living in the city centre. The University Technical College on Hunslet Road also opened its doors in Q and provides an educational and professional vocational education for people aged between 14 and 19 with a focus on science, technology, engineering and maths. Construction work also started on Phase 3 of the Printworks Campus in Q This 10m investment by the Leeds City College is the final phase and will house the School of Technology and other commercial services. With plans announced for a further secondary school at No. 1, The Embankment, the city centre has seen a real increase in the education provision available for students providing a range of options. 13

105 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Leeds: Student housing development pipeline No. beds 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Student digs in the pipeline The final phase of Downing s significant City Side scheme at Portland Way completed in Q3 2016, bringing an additional 474 student bedspaces to Central Village. Work also commenced in Q on the BlackRock Real Estate/Ashcourt Group development at Cavendish Street which proposes a 239 bedroom student scheme Completed U/C Source: Deloitte Real Estate Leeds anticipates further development within this sector, with a number of student developments located within the north of the city centre in the pipeline. This is in line with the Council s aspirations which seeks to promote the north of the city centre as a location for student developments including high rise buildings. This has been seen with plans announced for the Vita Student development at St Alban s Place, the Knightsbridge Capital (Leeds) proposal at Wade Lane and the redevelopment of the former Walkabout nightclub at Cookridge Street by X & X Estates Limited. These proposals represent a shift from other student accommodation schemes in the city with a focus on providing high quality amenity facilities for occupiers in addition to general living accommodation. The increase in the supply of student accommodation will help alleviate pressures on supply elsewhere in the Leeds district. 14

106 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Connectivity HS2 confirmation accelerates wider connectivity Leeds is on the brink of a step change in connectivity, with plans underway for the delivery of an integrated station upon the arrival of HS2. These plans will ensure Leeds Station is a world class gateway. HS2 and Northern Powerhouse Rail (formerly HS3) has the potential to transform the city region and strengthen its position as the largest financial and professional services centre outside of London. The long awaited Southern Entrance to Leeds Station opened in January This has benefitted visitors in providing excellent connectivity to the evolving South Bank area of Leeds and has been a major boost to the accessibility and therefore regeneration potential of that area. Further work is planned to improve accessibility at the train station, recognising it is has the highest rail footfall outside of London. A new station masterplan is due to be published in Q with the aim of outlining how Leeds can be a fully integrated national transport hub. Following a full public inquiry, the plans for the NGT trolleybus system were deemed unsuitable in May. Leeds City Council has retained the 173m dedicated to this scheme. Following a public consultation to understand how the transport experience in Leeds could be improved, plans announced in Q propose improvements to public transport links to the airport and from the south and east of the city. Source: Leeds City Council 15

107 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Outlook Sustained growth The latest Crane Survey research shows that development activity in Leeds during 2016 has continued to build on the increased investment seen since The year has seen a culmination of schemes complete after a concentrated period of development. The city has seen the completion of a number of transformational developments, including Victoria Gate and the southern entrance to the train station, now the aim and challenge is to accelerate development in the city further. Residential market remains slow The absence of a significant residential development and investment pipeline is a cause for concern as such schemes could provide the glue around which much of the placemaking activity required across the city centre can be brought forward. This will no doubt need to be a policy and investment priority in the short to medium term. South Bank provides future opportunities The proposed redevelopment of the South Bank area presents an opportunity to increase the size of Leeds City Centre. The South Bank, already an established business area, is to be buoyed by other significant transformative investments including the Tower Works and The Tetley sites, not least of all the HS2 station. These schemes will be a game changer for the local area and city as whole. Forecasts suggest that development surrounding the station will provide 35,000 jobs across the financial and professional and creative and digital sectors, and 4,000 homes for all ages including families. If this major opportunity is to be realised then it will require a co ordinated approach from all stakeholders. Source: Leeds City Council 16

108 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 Pipeline looks strong National and international developer interest is growing for other areas around the city, whilst a renewed investor confidence in the scale of developments that can be built has led to a number of high rise towers being proposed at locations across the city. Further expansion of the city centre, could also be brought forward in the planned new Innovation District which aims to form a partnership between the Council, universities and hospital to attract new research facilities and provide new development opportunities including housing. Located to the north of the city centre the district would incorporate the main city centre campuses of the University of Leeds, Leeds Beckett University, the Leeds General Infirmary and Leeds City Council buildings. The Northern Powerhouse Strategy released in November identifies the importance of developing the economic performance of key northern cities, including Leeds. In the Autumn Statement, the Chancellor suggested regional growth as a means of closing the productivity gap between the UK and other advanced economies. The continued support for the strategy provides an opportunity that the city needs to take. One significant project likely to impact the market next year will be harnessing the Government s office consolidation plans. In Leeds this equates to 450,000 sq ft with the potential for an extra 200,000 sq ft of new office floorspace. It is intended that HMRC and the Department of Health will take the space in Leeds, potentially alongside other government departments. While great news for landlords with available space, the impact that this will have on existing leasehold premises occupied by government, could provide a further opportunity for redevelopment. The progression of the Leeds Business Improvement District has increased throughout 2016, bringing commercial benefits to businesses. Placemaking is a major priority for Leeds in order to continue attracting investment, highlighted by the completion of public open space at Tower Square and Sovereign Square. The city s bid for the European Capital of Culture 2023 is strengthened by hosting a number of events including the World Triathlon, Big Disco, Leeds Light Night and Tour de Yorkshire. In order to ensure the cultural vision is aligned, the city has identified the requirement for an updated Cultural Strategy. The full bid will be submitted by October Leeds has clearly had an excellent decade, now in the retail premier league and has delivered on schemes promised over the last ten years. The next challenge for the city is to build on this in order to take Leeds on its next step of the journey transforming into a truly international destination. 17

109 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Development table No. Name/Address Developer Main Use Total size (sq ft/units) City Core Under Construction Completion Date Comments 1 The Leeming Building, Vicar Lane 2 Premier Inn Hotel, Whitehall Road Freshwater Group Town Centre Securities Office 27,000 sq ft Q The building which fronts Leeds Market is arranged over 4 floors. Hotel 136 rooms Q Town Centre Securities, the Leeds based developer, has agreed a 25 year lease with the leisure group to create a 136 room hotel at its Whitehall Riverside scheme. The nine storey hotel, designed by Cartwright Pickard, will form a key element of the mixed use scheme. 3 5 South Parade YPP Residential 34 units Q Work commenced on the office to residential conversion. Once complete the development will provide 34 luxury studio apartments. 4 Merrion Hotel, Wade Road 5 Dakota Hotel, Greek Street Town Centre Securities Evans Property Group Hotel 134 rooms Q A 5m investment in the Merrion Hotel. A new two storey extension will provide additional bedrooms as well as a new restaurant. The scheme will house a Marco Pierre White restaurant. The hotel occupier is IBIS. Hotel 90 rooms Q This scheme forms part of Evans Property Group s 20 million investment into the Bond Court area of Leeds. 6 Platform, New Station Street (City House) Bruntwood Office 116,209 sq ft Q Refurbishment started Q Shoosmiths has signed a 10 year lease to take 9,720 sq ft of floorspace. 7 X1 Aire, East Street Knight Knox/X1 Residential 147 Units Q Buy to let residential accommodation built over 12 floors, the scheme will provide one and two bed apartments along with five luxury penthouses 8 Mansio Suites Park Square 9 Havana Residence (Zicon House), Wade Lane Samara Group Hotel 25 apartments Q Conversion from office to residential, to provide 25 serviced apartments/aparthotel units. YPP Residential 79 units Q Once complete the development will comprise 65 apartment in the existing building, plus a single storey extension providing a further 14 apartments Park Row CBRE Global Investors/ Harris Office/ Leisure 40,887 sq ft office Q Refurbishment of the former regional head office of Lloyd s Bank will provide 9 storeys of Grade A office space. Offering flexible floorplates between 1,453 and 8,810 sq ft. A new restaurant on the ground floor (6,000 sq ft) to be occupied by Busuba Eathai. Red text denotes new starts since last Crane Survey 18

110 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 No. Name/Address Developer Main Use Total size (sq ft/units) Completion Date Comments 11 3 Wellington Place MEPC Office 106,594 Q This six storey development started on a speculative basis. 12 Merrion House, Merrion Way City Core Completed Town Centre Securities Office 170,000 sq ft Q Major refurbishment of Merrion House which will be occupied by Leeds City Council as part of an initiative to reduce the council s office buildings in the city centre. The new six story extension will feature a new integrated one stop centre on the ground floor, offering the public access to all the main council services plus a number of additional partner services including Leeds City Credit Union and the Volunteer Centre Leeds. 13 Leeds Station Southern Entrance Metro/Network Rail Transport/ retail 2,500 sq ft retail Q The 17.4m project to create a new entrance to the south of Leeds Station completed Q Wellington Place, Wellington Street MEPC Office 104,000 sq ft Q The office space has been fully let. Tenants include law firm Squire Patton Boggs (32,000 sq ft), Equifax (20,000 sq ft) and Sky Betting & Gaming (40,000 sq ft), which is in addition to the space taken at No.2 Wellington Place. 15 6EP*, East Parade Evenacre/ Office 45,000 sq ft Q Global media group, Dentsu Aegis Network has agreed a 10 year Bridge Ventures lease for 13,509 sq ft of offices on the top two floors of the building. 16 Mansio Suites The Headrow Samara Group Hotel 26 apartments Q Conversion from office to residential, to provide 26 serviced apartments/aparthotel units. 17 Park Square Residence, 21 Park Square 18 Crown Residence, Great George Street AY Investments Residential 63 units Q The development utilised permitted development rights to convert an office building to residential. Q Properties Residential 37 units Q The development utilised permitted development rights to convert an office building to residential. 19 Tate House, New York Road JM Construction Residential 74 units Q Phase 1 completed in Q whilst Phase 2 (new build on roof) completed Q A choice of one, two and three bedroom apartments, specified and designed to offer practical, contemporary living space. 20 Mansio Suites Basinghall Samara Group Hotel 23 apartments Q Conversion from office to residential providing 26 serviced apartments/aparthotel units. Red text denotes new starts since last Crane Survey 19

111 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 No. Name/Address Developer Main Use Total size (sq ft/units) Completion Date Comments 21 Concordia Works, Sovereign Street Boultbee Brooks Real Estate Office 13,922 sq ft Q A refurbished office building set over 5 floors, maintaining its original industrial features Greek Street Ricsion Office 15,000 sq ft Q A 2m refurbishment, formally Aquis House, a seven storey building, with ground floor restaurant. 23 Central Square, Wellington Street M&G Real Estate and Marrico Asset Management Office 201,700 sq ft office 19,000 sq ft leisure Q This mixed used scheme completed in Q PwC and RSM have signed a 15 year lease to take 55,000 sq ft and 25,420 sq ft, respectively. Marks & Spencer and Caffe Nero have signed a 10 year lease for the ground floor units Queen Street Marshall CDP/ Rockspring Office 70,940 sq ft Q Construction completed in Q The development provides approximately 70,940 sq ft of accommodation arranged over 6 floors ranging from 4,359 to 14,047 sq ft floorplates, a private roof terrace on the fifth floor and 47 parking spaces. 25 The Ruth Gorse Academy, Black Bull Street Leeds Sustainable Development Group Education 123,785 sq ft Q The Academy opened in Q and is one of the largest free schools in England. The 25m facility will accommodate up to 1,580 pupils (11 18 years). 26 UTC Leeds, Hunslet Road 27 5 Wellington Place, Wellington Street 28 Victoria Gate Phase 1, Eastgate UTC Trust Education 58,125 sq ft Q Specialising in engineering and manufacturing, UTC Leeds provides an academic and professional vocational education for up to 600 young people aged from across the city region, with the curriculum focused on the STEM subjects of science, technology, engineering and maths. MEPC Office 75,000 sq ft Q Ward Hadaway occupied 12,969 sq ft of the building in Q Hammerson Retail 575,000 sq ft Q Phase 1 completed Q and includes a flagship John Lewis store (265,000 sq ft) with a further 23 units occupying the remaining space Sovereign Square Bruntwood/ Kier Property Office 83,383 sq ft Q Addleshaw Goddard has signed a 17 and a half year lease and will occupy three floors (51,000 sq ft) in Q Café Nero and Co op have also taken space in the retail units. Leeds City Council purchased the building in Q Red text denotes new starts since last Crane Survey 20

112 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 No. Name/Address Developer Main Use Total size (sq ft/units) Completion Date Comments 30 Yorkshire House and Hub, Greek Street FORE Partnership Office 90,000 sq ft Q FORE acquired the building in Q and are targeting traditional firms as well as those in more creative industries. Other Fringe Under Construction 31 Cavendish Street BlackRock Real Estate/ Ashcourt Group Student Housing 239 beds Q This student housing development also includes a premium amenity offer, including cinema space, a music room, gym, common room, cycle storage and a terraced outdoor courtyard. 32 University of Leeds University of Leeds Education 514,992 sq ft Q The Worsley Building refurbishment started Q (172,924sq ft) and completed Q School of Chemical and Process Engineering refurbishment commenced Q and is expected to complete Q (142,210 sq ft). Edward Boyle Library ( 15.3m) (129,753 sq ft), which started construction in Q and is expected to complete Q Refurbishment of the students union commenced Q The union covers approximately 130,000 sq ft and is expected to complete Q Refurbishment of Healthcare Spaces commenced Q ( 1.6m) and is expected to complete Q The University of Leeds has also announced details of a 250m bond and said the proceeds will be invested in teaching and research facilities, student accommodation and supporting infrastructure. 33 Clarendon Quarter, St Johns Road AIG Residential 320 apartments Q The development comprises the conversion of a former school and new build to provide 259 apartments for key workers and 61 private residential apartments. Once operational the development will be managed by LIV. Other Fringe Completed 34 City Side, Portland Way Downing Student Housing 474 beds Q City Side is Central Village Phase 3. It includes two blocks of student accommodation totalling 474 beds. Red text denotes new starts since last Crane Survey 21

113 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 No. Name/Address Developer Main Use Total size (sq ft/units) Water Fringe Under Construction Completion Date Comments 35 East Point, East Street Fortis Developments 36 Printworks Campus Phase 3, Hunslet Road Leeds City College Residential 39 units Q East Point is a residential development to the east of the city centre. The plan includes the conversion of the former Leeds College of Technology building. There will be a mix of 39 newly converted 1, 2 and 3 bedroom apartments set over 5 floors. Education 53,820 sq ft Q Construction work commenced in Q on the final phase of a 10m development at Leeds City College s Printworks Campus. This phase of the renovation will turn the historic Printhall into a new learning space which will house the School of Technology and the commercial services that the college offers. Water Fringe Completed 37 Leeds Dock Allied London Office 15,000 sq ft Q An additional 15,000 sq ft has been released at Leeds Dock to support the continued growth of the scheme s technology and media hub. The new accommodation includes 3,000 sq ft on the first floor of Magellan House and 12,000 sq ft in Block E. Red text denotes new starts since last Crane Survey 22

114 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January 2017 University of Leeds 32 W oodhouse Lane Cross Stamford St Belle Vue Road West Street 31 Wellington Road Whitehall Road Holbeck Lane Cl arendon Road 33 Pa rk Lane Wellington Street A58 2 Water Lane Queen St River Aire Aire St Leeds - Liverpool Canal Inner Ring Road Marshall Street Westgate 17 8 Calverley St Town Hall 15 East Parade Manor Rd Sweet Street West Sweet Street Leeds Beckett University Cookridge St Park Row New S t 6 a Neville Street tion St A653 Albion Street The Headrow Boar Lane 29 Meadow Lane 4 9 Briggate Victoria Quarter River Aire Waterloo St Hunslet Road Crown Point Road 36 A61 Chadwick St Regent Street New York Road St Peter s St ar Street South Clay Pit Lane New York Street Marsh Lane Carlise Rd East Street Royal Armouries 7 Clarence Road A64 Dewsbury South A 23

115 Pipeline of prosperity Leeds Crane Survey January Contacts Sean Beech Head of Deloitte Regions Real Estate Shaun Dawson Research Manager Simon Bedford Partner Deloitte Real Estate Clare Boardman Partner Corporate Finance John Cooper Partner Deloitte Real Estate Richard Davis Partner Real Estate Tax Pete Gleave Manager Deloitte Real Estate Tony Reeves Partner Risk Advisory

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117 Deloitte refers to one or more of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited ( DTTL ), a UK private company limited by guarantee, and its network of member firms, each of which is a legally separate and independent entity. Please see for a detailed description of the legal structure of DTTL and its member firms. Deloitte LLP is the United Kingdom member firm of DTTL. This publication has been written in general terms and therefore cannot be relied on to cover specific situations; application of the principles set out will depend upon the particular circumstances involved and we recommend that you obtain professional advice before acting or refraining from acting on any of the contents of this publication. Deloitte LLP would be pleased to advise readers on how to apply the principles set out in this publication to their specific circumstances. Deloitte LLP accepts no duty of care or liability for any loss occasioned to any person acting or refraining from action as a result of any material in this publication Deloitte LLP. All rights reserved. Deloitte LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales with registered number OC and its registered office at 2 New Street Square, London EC4A 3BZ, United Kingdom. Tel: +44 (0) Fax: +44 (0) Designed and produced by The Creative Studio at Deloitte, London. J10906

118 APPENDIX 19 BNP PARIBAS CITY CENTRE HOUSING MARKET (15 TH AUGUST 2017) Johnson Mowat Leeds Five Year Housing Land Supply Review August 2017

119 Mark Johnson Managing Partner Coronet House, Queen Street, Leeds LS1 2TW By only: David Couch Director BNP Paribas Real Estate Minerva, 29 East Parade, Leeds LS1 5PS Tel: Switchboard: Fax: (0) (0) (0) Our ref: DZC/ L August 2017 Dear Mark LEEDS 5 YEAR LAND SUPPLY CITY CENTRE & INNER AREA HOUSING MARKET CHARACTERISTIC AREAS As requested, I have considered the housing trajectories for the Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs over the next five years contained within Leeds City Council s draft 2017 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA). I have reviewed the projections in market terms and whether these can be considered to be realistic based on our knowledge and experience of the Leeds residential development market. Experience I am a member of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors and a Director of BNP Paribas Real Estate, a leading global real estate adviser. I am head of the Residential team for the north of England and specialises in agency and valuation work in the development land sector. I have worked for BNP Paribas Real Estate for over 20 years and have been a Director since The majority of my work involves advising on the residential development process, with particular emphasis on the appraisal, valuation and disposal of complex development opportunities for landowners. I act for both public and private sector clients, providing advice on a number of major residential development projects. I have acted as marketing and sales agent on a wide range of residential development opportunities across the north of England, including the following recent projects in Leeds: Centenary House, Leeds I was involved in the marketing of this former office building in 2016 as Private Rented Sector forward funding / commitment opportunity. The building is located on North Street (within the City Centre HMCA) and has planning permission for the conversion and extension to provide 79 apartments over 6 levels.

120 Leeds City Centre Apartment Development I am currently involved with the confidential marketing of a development site with outline planning permission for in excess of 400 units on the edge of the City Centre (within the Inner Area HMCA). Scarcroft Estate I am the agent on the sale of circa 17 acre development opportunity in Scarcoft (within the Outer North East HMCA), currently occupied by N-Power as offices and with a draft allocation for 100 dwellings. This site is now under offer to a residential developer on a subject to planning basis. Pollard Lane, Newlay I was the joint agent on the marketing of this circa 3 acre site located just south of Horsforth (within the Outer West HMCA), which has full planning permission for the development of 59 dwellings. The unconditional sale of this site to Stonebridge Homes completed earlier this year. Dunstarn Lane, Adel I was the agent on the marketing of this circa 4 acre site in Adel (within the North HMCA) which has a UDP allocation for residential development. This site sold unconditionally in December BNP Paribas Real Estate is also currently marketing a circa 4.2 acre redevelopment opportunity on the edge of the City Centre and off Kirkstall Road (within the Inner Area HMCA). This site is now under offer to a property investment company and I have had discussions with my colleague who is leading on the disposal regarding the interest and offer received. I am therefore familiar with and have current experience of the Leeds residential development market. Leeds Housing Trajectories Leeds City Council s draft 2017 SHLAA housing trajectories for the Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs over the next five years are reproduced in the table below: 2017/ / / / /22 Total City Centre 630 1,045 1,838 2,849 1,599 7,961 Inner Area 640 1,138 2,126 2,315 1,618 7,837 CC & IA Sub Total 1,270 2,183 3,964 5,164 3,217 15,798 Leeds Total 3,602 6,458 8,576 10,554 9,190 38,380 CC & IA as % of Leeds Total 35% 34% 46% 49% 35% 41% Table 1 It is clear from the above that the Council is forecasting both of the following over the next 5 years: 1. A significant increase in the number of housing units delivered in the Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs; and 2

121 2. The Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs providing a significant proportion of the new housing to be delivered across the city. Based on my research, knowledge and experience of the Leeds residential development market and feedback from key stakeholders, I am of the opinion that the Council has significantly over estimated the number of housing units which will be delivered within the Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs over the next 5 years. I have set out below the reasoning which supports my opinion. Leeds Residential Market Overview The global financial crisis ( the crisis ) triggered both a significant downturn of both the UK economy and housing market. Although there have been steady improvements in both the economy and housing markets, the house building industry across Leeds remains significantly different to how it operated prior to the crisis, with key points to note including: 1. The financial collapse and / or retraction from the City Centre market of the majority of the developers whose focus had been on developing apartments within the City Centre and Inner Area HMCAs, with specific examples including City Lofts and KW Linfoot. 2. The withdrawal from the Leeds market, or the contraction of the operations, of the larger volume housebuilders. This contraction saw the majority move away from developing in the more challenging, mid to lower value areas hardest hit following the crisis which had been targeted to in order to develop high volumes of residential units alongside a willingness to accept low rates of profits. In contrast, the majority of the larger volume housebuilders development land acquisition are now focused on maximising profit and return on capital employment. This has been achieved by developing traditional 2 storey family housing in the outer suburbs and rural area of Leeds which have good access to the City Centre, and / or local services / amenities and the motorway networks. These were the locations and types of housing units which had proved more robust following the crisis in terms of achieving higher sale values and / or rates of sales, and continue to do so. Furthermore, due to the focus on return on capital employed, the volume housebuilders are also reluctant to acquire sites which require significant upfront expenditure before development and sales can commence e.g. for the remediation of previously developed sites and / or major infrastructure works. This has created an opportunity for site promoters and enablers to remediate sites before bringing them to the market on a phased basis (for example Harworth Group). 3. Some specialist housebuilders such as Keepmoat Homes, Gleeson Homes and Lovell Homes, as well as Strata Homes and some Housing Associations have developed in mid to lower value areas of Leeds (including parts of the Inner HMCA) following the crisis, and continue to do so. However, these developers are only able to develop on sites where there are no significant upfront development costs and where the land can be acquired at low value and whilst their schemes are typically at a higher density than suburban housing they are low rise rather than large towers. 4. Interest in Private Rented Sector (PRS) schemes or Build to Rent is strong at the moment but in line with other regional cities (outside of Manchester) actual delivery is slow as landowners, funders and investors strive to deliver viable schemes. Issues include competition from other land uses (particularly a resurgent office market) as well as yield gaps from rental values to capital values. Schemes such as Grainger s at the former Yorkshire Post (242 units) are now coming forward but there is a caution with most investors seeking phasing (200 units or less per phase) to test market appetite and returns. Obtaining planning is a starting point but I do not consider that every scheme that obtains planning for PRS will immediately come forward for development and see a start on site. 3

122 Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs Analysis As a consequence of the above and other factors, development within the City Centre HMCA in recent years in particular has been significantly lower than forecast in the draft 2017 SHLAA housing trajectories (see Table 1 above). Evidence of this is provided in Deloitte Real Estate s Leeds Crane Survey, with the table reproduced below from this below showing the number of residential units completed between 2006 and 2016 within Leeds City Centre. The Deloitte Real Estate table demonstrates the significant decline in residential unit completions within the City Centre following the crisis. It also shows the close to doubling of completions from circa 900 in 2006 to circa 1,600 in 2007 and 2008, as well as the significant fall in subsequent years, which illustrates the significant residential development boom immediately prior to the crisis. Hindsight reveals that this level of development was the result of unsustainable market conditions as demonstrated by the subsequent economic and housing market downturns. They are, however, below the level of residential units assumed in the final three years of the Council s draft 2017 SHLAA housing trajectories (1,838, 2,849 and 1,599 respectively). Based on the above and my knowledge and experience of the Leeds residential development market, I believe the likely rates of housing unit delivery within the both the Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs over the next 5 years will be significantly below those assumed in the Leeds SHLAA. The reasons for this include the following: i. Limited Number of Developers As discussed above, the majority of the volume housebuilders are focusing on developing family housing in the more desirable mid to higher value outer suburbs and rural area of Leeds, where they are confident good sales values and rates of sales can be achieved. As a result of this, there are only a limited number of specialist low cost housebuilders and apartment developers, as well Housing Associations, willing to develop housing units within the Inner Area and City Centre HMCAs. 4

123 ii. Market Capacity The majority of the sites within the City Centre HMCA are suitable only for multistorey apartment development. There are new apartment schemes recently developed within the City Centre HMCA. These include residential conversions of former office buildings such as Park Square Residence (63 apartments to rent), Crown Residence (37 apartments to rent) and Tate House (74 apartment for sale), as well as Grainger and L&G s build to rent proposals for circa 240 units on Wellington Street and 250 units at Mustard Wharf respectively. However, as demonstrated in the Deloitte Real Estate table above, the number of new apartments developed within the City Centre HMCA since 2008 remains significantly below the numbers assumed in the draft 2017 SHLAA housing trajectories for the next 5 years. As such, there would need to be a very substantial growth in the number of apartments developed within the City Centre, to the unsustainable levels of 2007 and 2008, just to get close to the numbers assumed in the trajectories. PRS may take up some of the shortfall from the lack of large market sale schemes but it will not replace it in the short term. iii. Upfront Costs Whilst specialist low cost housebuilders and Housing Associations will develop housing within the Inner HMCA, this is only viable where the land owners are willing to sell at relatively low land values and there are no significant upfront development costs. This rules out many of the larger brownfield sites within this area due to the costs of site clearance and remediation required to develop these for housing, unless public funding can be secured to pay for these costs. Previously developed sites within the City Centre HMCA face similar viability issues where there are large upfront costs in additional to the standard build costs. In summary, based on my experience of delivery in the market, I consider the SHLAA forecasts for the next 5 years in the Inner City Area and City Centre to be overly optimistic and expect delivery to be significantly lower. Yours sincerely David Couch MA MRICS Director 5