Tendências e Desafios no Horizonte 2O3O

Transcription

1 Tendências e Desafios no Horizonte 2O3O LISBOA TEATRO THALIA 28 NOVEMBRO 2017 Cofinanciado por / Confinanced by

2 Circular Economy: Concept & Trends Alexandre

3 The Circular Economy: Concept & Trends Content 1. Economic Strategies 2. Concept & Principles 3. The Economic Potential 4. Jobs, Activities and the Social Dimension

4 Economic Strategies

5 Economic Strategies Wrongly designed system TAKE MAKE DISPOSE WASTE ENERGY LABOUR $ WASTE ENERGY LABOUR $ WASTE Res. ENERGY $

6 Economic Strategies Functions of throughput Responsibility Transfer & Externalities Producer $ Purchaser $ Authority $ $ $ Taxpayer Ownership Traffic congestion Air Pollution Health Impact Noise Death/Injuries Multiple Waste etc E X T E R N A L I T I E S?

7 Economic Strategies 80% thrown while huge needs

8 Concept & Principles

9 Source: Giarini & Stahel, 1989 A Circular Economy Preserve stock quality & manage flows! Level is ignored GDP (flow) Welfare / Wealth / Knowledge (stock) How we measure our economy today How it should be measured! Outflow is ignored!

10 A Circular Economy Stock is everywhere

11 A Circular Economy A resource-efficient economy Reuse of vast amount of material = Foundation of Economic Growth Restorative by design & intention Using renewable energy Away from chemicals Eradicating waste Rebuilding natural capital

12 Durables: Technical Nutrients Design-to-fit: optimised systems Limited Unlimited Leased $ Accessed No More Waste Away from Recycling Labour is Valued $ USERS $ Shared $ Returned Biosphere $ $

13 Consumables: Biological Nutrients Safely back into the biosphere Away from hazardous chemicals Nutrients are Beneficial Rebuilding natural capital $ $ CONSUMERS $ Biosphere $ $

14 Source: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation/WRAP/WEF By 2030: +3M EU Jobs -520,000 Unempl. By 2050: $4.5tn WWD Depending on countries: From -40% to -70% less CO2 Rebuilding of Capital: In Priority: Natural

15 Source: The UN Environment, Accenture A Circular Economy Decoupling is the Imperative C.E. Business Models + New capabilities + New technologies Leading to new value chains: Less resource supply risks More customer value creation More attractive cost structures

16 Source: Sitra A Circular Economy New Business Models

17 A Circular Economy 6 Business Strategies

18 A Circular Economy Recycling is only the last resort Reducing materials to mashed-up fragments Down-cycling Secondary material stream for a linear economy Does not value materials Does not drive material enhancement Uses too much energy A good alternative solution today Not a solution that copes with waste volumes

19 Source: Sitra A Circular Economy Advances across the Globe

20 The Economic Potential

21 Source: The Ellen MacArthur Foundation Economic Potential of Circularity Huge material savings ( 630bn/y (E.U.))

22 Economic Potential of Circularity Market Trends

23 Economic Potential of Circularity Towards Optimization of Value

24 Source: Growth Within, SystemIQ Economic Potential of Circularity Benefits according to Growth Within Current development scenario Circular scenario EU-27, Indexed (2012 = 100)

25 Source: The EMF, SystemIQ Economic Potential of Circularity Next Wave of Investment Themes Investments up to Cross-cutting opportunity

26 Source: McKinsey, Gaia Consulting The Case of Finland Opportunities Identified

27 The Case of Finland

28 The Case of Finland Examples: Policy Measures

29 Source: Sitra The Case of Finland Takeaways & Expectations Global Unique Roadmap Government Vision: World Leader in Circular Economy Added Value Potential: 3bn Euros for the Economy Additional Jobs: 75,000 (Club of Rome)

30 Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension

31 Source: Green Alliance, Sitra Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension Product Sold for Reuse & Remanufacture

32 Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension National job creation Valued Extracted Tax ɛ Maintenance ReMarketing RePurpose Repair ReUse ReDistribute Disassembly Remanufacture Recycle CO 2 Portugal Portugal or RoW

33 Source: Club of Rome Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension Winners: jobs & climate Up to 70% Less CO2 Emissions Decoupling Strategies: Emission Reduction Additional Jobs Trade Balance Effects Renewable Case Energy-efficiency Materialefficiency All Three Combined -50% + Around -30% + -3% to -10% + -66% to -69% +75,000 (FL); +15,000 (FL); +50,000 (SW+FL); +15,000 (SW+FL); +100,000 (SW); +20,000 (SW); +100,000 (NL); +50,000 (NL); +200,000 (NL); +100,000 (NL); +200,000 (SP); +100,000 (FR+SP) +400,000 (SP); +200,000 (FR+SP) +300,000 (FR); +500,000 (FR); +0.3% to +0.7% of GDP + 0% to +0.4% of GDP + +1% to +2% of GDP % to +3% of GDP

34 Source: A. Lemille, adapted from the Butterfly Diagram of the Ellen MacArthur Foundation Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension Stock & Flows of Energies & Resources BIOSPHERE HUMANSPHERE TECHNOSPHERE Farming, Collection Regeneration Biosphere Biochemical Feedstock Recycle Refurbish/remanufacture Biogas Cascades Share Reuse /redistribute Maintain/Prolong Extraction of Biochemical Feedstock

35 Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension Manpower is enabled Humans assisting, Germany Robots could not keep up with Mercedes S-Class requires too many customisations Hand-repaired, Sweden Prolonging life via repairs VAT drop: from 25% to 12%

36 Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension OCV: Optimising Circular Value Measuring our 10 Priority Oucomes:

37 OBRIGADO THANK YOU Cofinanciado por / Confinanced by