Canada s Deteriorating Automotive Trade Performance. by Jim Stanford Economist Canadian Auto Workers
|
|
- Annabelle Thompson
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Canada s Deteriorating Automotive Trade Performance by Jim Stanford Economist Canadian Auto Workers October 2007
2 Summary In recent decades, Canada has been a major net exporter of automotive products to global markets. The auto industry was one of a very small number of technology-intensive manufacturing sectors in which Canada was able to maintain a trade surplus. (For the most part, Canada experiences trade deficits in higher-technology manufacturing sectors, offset by surpluses in natural resources like energy and forestry.) In 1999, the best year ever for Canada s auto sector, our automotive trade surplus reached almost $15 billion. 1 During this decade, however, that traditional automotive trade surplus has evaporated, shockingly quickly. In 2006 Canada incurred a small automotive trade deficit the first in a generation. And a CAW analysis of monthly trade data indicates that deficit has become dramatically worse this year. During the first seven months of 2007, Canada s automotive trade deficit swelled to over $4 billion. Extrapolating year-to-date growth trends in both imports and exports, the automotive trade deficit for 2007 as a whole will likely reach almost $8 billion. That would represent by far the largest automotive trade deficit in Canada s history. Instead of being a net supplier of high-quality automotive products to the global economy, Canada is now a major net importer of automotive products. This trade deficit inevitably translates into a loss of jobs in domestic automotive production (since fewer jobs are supported by exports, and more jobs are displaced by imports). Indeed, the erosion of our automotive trade performance has gone hand-in-hand with the loss of well-paying automotive jobs. Over 10,000 auto assembly jobs have been lost since 1999, and over 10,000 auto parts jobs have been lost since Canada maintains a significant automotive trade surplus with the U.S., but this is now overwhelmed by a much larger combined deficit with other countries. Canada s largest automotive trade deficit is with Japan (exceeding $6 billion). Our most unbalanced automotive trade relationship is with Korea from whom we purchase 183 times as much automotive value as we sell there. The fastest-growing automotive imports have been from China (up by over 1200% in ten years) and Korea (up by almost 600%). Canada s automotive trade deficit with China (due mostly to imports of auto parts) will reach almost $1 billion this year. 1 See appendix for sector definitions and data sources. 1
3 Despite the decline in the automotive trade balance, the auto industry remains arguably Canada s most important export industry. Total automotive exports will exceed $70 billion for That represents a 20 per cent decline from the 1999 peak, yet still qualifies the industry as our most important export earner. This evidence calls deeply into question the current direction of federal economic and trade policy. The federal government and the Bank of Canada have tolerated the unprecedented run-up of the Canadian dollar (which has appreciated by over 60% against the U.S. dollar since 2002, clearly contributing to our deteriorating automotive trade performance). And trade officials are pushing to sign a new free trade agreement with Korea, which will enhance that country s already-large penetration of Canadian automotive markets. Industry Canada s own studies indicate that a Canada-Korea FTA will spur an increase in Canadian vehicle imports from Korea by 18,000-33,000 units per year. 2 Canadian and Korean trade negotiators will launch their 11 th round of FTA negotiations in Ottawa on October 9. Trade Minister David Emerson has indicated his determination to reach a deal with Korea, motivated by the fact that Canada has not signed any new FTAs in five years. The two sides are reported to be nearing a deal that would include the elimination of tariffs on Korean automotive sales in Canada, with no requirements of Korean automotive purchases from Canada. The CAW calls on the federal government to stop its FTA negotiations with Korea in light of the devastating deterioration of Canada s automotive trade performance, and other structural challenges facing the Canadian industry. This is the wrong time for our own government to expose this still-crucial export industry to even more damage from low-cost, one-sided imports. Future trade talks must be integrated with a broader strategy to support auto and other high-value Canadian industries, and must feature focused measures to ensure that our automotive imports are matched by equivalent automotive exports. 2 Partial Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of a Canada - Korea FTA on the Canadian Automotive Industry, Industry Canada, 2006, 2
4 Canada Experienced a $4 Billion Automotive Trade Deficit in the First 7 Months of 2007 Canada s Automotive Trade Jan.-July 2007, $billion Vehicles Exports 30.2 Imports 22.1 Auto Parts (Incl. Bodies & Trailers) Exports 11.5 Imports 23.9 Total Exports 41.7 Imports 46.0 BALANCE -4.3 Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis. Canada s automotive exports (including both assembled vehicles and parts) declined by 5 per cent (year over year) during the first seven months of 2007, to under $42 billion in total. In contrast, Canada s automotive imports grew by 4 per cent. These contrasting trends created a net automotive trade deficit of $4.3 billion, during the January-July period alone. Canada maintains a net surplus in trade in finished vehicles, but this surplus narrowed by 27 per cent (year over year) during the first seven months of the year. Our long-standing trade deficit in auto parts (including truck and bus bodies and trailers) widened during the first seven months (to $12.4 billion). 3
5 For 2007 as a Whole, Canada Will Incur an Automotive Trade Deficit Approaching $8 billion Canada s Automotive Trade 2007 Year Total Forecast, $billion Vehicles Exports 51.6 Imports 37.9 Auto Parts (Incl. Bodies & Trailers) Exports 19.5 Imports 41.1 Total Exports 71.1 Imports 79.0 BALANCE -7.9 Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis. The year-over-year changes in each component of Canada s automotive trade balance can be extrapolated to 2007 as a whole, to develop a forecast of the year-end automotive trade balance. On this basis, a year-end surplus in finished vehicle trade of under $14 billion, will be offset by a much larger trade deficit in parts (of close to $22 billion). The bottom-line automotive trade deficit will therefore approach $8 billion for the year. This will represent by far the largest automotive trade deficit in Canadian history. The previous largest automotive trade deficit was $3 billion, incurred in 1979 (at the height of the post-opec surge in sales of small imported vehicles). 4
6 This Year s Automotive Trade Deficit is a Sharp Reversal from Recent Large Surpluses $20 Collapsing Trade Performance (I) Automotive Trade Balance ($bil) $15 $10 $5 $0 -$5 -$ Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis. fcst This year s expected automotive trade deficit of $8 billion represents a dramatic change from significant automotive trade surpluses experienced just a few years ago. Throughout the 1990s and the first part of this decade, Canada enjoyed significant automotive trade surpluses as a result of vibrant domestic production and strong exports. The largest surplus was experienced in 1999, reaching almost $15 billion. Since 2004, the automotive trade balance has deteriorated every year at the same time as Canada s currency was appreciating dramatically relative to the U.S. dollar (and most other currencies, as well). This year s deficit will represent a cumulative decline in the automotive trade balance of over $22 billion since
7 Annual Change, Automtv. Trade Bal.($bil) The One-Year Decline in Canada s Automotive Trade Balance in 2007 is the Worst-Ever $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 -$2 -$4 -$6 -$8 Collapsing Trade Performance (II) Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis. fcst This year s deterioration in the automotive trade balance continues what is now a well-established (if unfortunate) trend marks the third consecutive year of deteriorating automotive trade performance. And the trade balance has deteriorated in seven of the past eight years. However, the single-year decline in the automotive trade balance expected in 2007 (a decline of almost $7 billion, compared to last year s small deficit) is dramatic. In fact, this year s decline in the trade balance would represent the worst single-year deterioration in automotive trade performance in Canadian history exceeding one-year declines of almost $6 billion that were experienced in 2002 and In other words, not only is Canada s automotive trade performance now the worst-ever; it is still deteriorating at a record rate. 6
8 Canada s Automotive Trade Surplus with the U.S. is Outweighed by Deficits With Other Countries U.S. surplus, RoW deficit ($bil) $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 U.S. and Other Traders U.S. Surplus RoW Deficit $ Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis. fcst Canada will still enjoy an automotive trade surplus with the U.S. this year of close to $10 billion although this is down sharply from the $25 billion bilateral surplus recorded in Canadian vehicle exports to the U.S. have been squeezed out by a rapid rise in offshore import penetration to the U.S. market. However, that bilateral trade surplus with the U.S. is now far outweighed by Canada s growing automotive trade deficit with the rest of the world (RoW). That cumulative non-u.s. automotive trade deficit will likely equal $17.5 billion this year the highest ever, and twice as large as a decade ago. For every $1 in automotive trade surplus Canada continues to enjoy with the U.S., we now incur a $1.82 deficit with the rest of the world. 7
9 Canada s Largest Bilateral Automotive Trade Deficit is with Japan $0 Canada's Largest Auto Deficits Automotive trade deficit ($bil) -$1 -$2 -$3 -$4 -$5 -$6 -$7 Japan Mexico Germany Korea China Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis.2006 actual. Almost 90 per cent of Canada s automotive trade deficit with the rest of the world is due to five large bilateral deficits with particular countries. Canada s automotive trade deficit with Japan is the largest, exceeding $6 billion. The bilateral deficit with Mexico is next largest, over $4 billion. Bilateral deficits with Germany and Korea add about $2 billion each to the toll. Rapidly growing imports of auto parts from China have now created a significant bilateral trade deficit with that country as well. The deficit equaled $800 million in Year-over-year trends from January through July indicate that the automotive trade deficit for 2007 will come close to $1 billion. As recently as 2003, Canada maintained a small automotive trade surplus with China, but that has shifted quickly into a now-large and rapidly-growing deficit. 8
10 Canada s Automotive Imports are Growing Fastest From China and Korea Growth auto imports (10-yr) 1400% 1200% 1000% 800% 600% 400% 200% Fastest Growing Auto Imports 1255% 586% 171% 75% 55% 32% 17% 0% China Korea Germany Mexico Japan AVERAGE U.S. Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis.2007 fcst. total over 1997 actual. Over the past decade, Canada s total imports of automotive products have grown by about one-third. But this relatively modest overall rate of import growth masks dramatic differences in the sourcing of automotive imports. Automotive imports from the U.S. have grown half as fast as total imports during this time. As a result, the U.S. share of total Canadian automotive imports has fallen from 85 per cent to 75 per cent over the decade. The fastest growth in automotive imports has been from China and Korea. Automotive imports from China (consisting mostly of auto parts for now, anyway) have expanded twelve-fold over the decade. Automotive imports from Korea (consisting mostly of finished vehicles) have expanded six-fold. 9
11 Our Automotive Trade is More Unbalanced With Korea Than Any Other Major Trading Partner Ratio of Auto Imports to Exports Largest Auto Trade Imbalances Korea Japan Germany Mexico China U.S. Source: CAW Research from Industry Canada Strategis mos. Data. Canada s bilateral automotive trade with the U.S. is relatively balanced: Canada enjoys a significant surplus, but that surplus is relatively small compared to a very large two-way flow of both finished vehicles and parts. This intense two-way trade represents the legacy of continental integration in the industry, dating back to the 1965 Canada-U.S. Auto Pact. In contrast, Canada s automotive trade with other major trading partners is precariously unbalanced. With other players, Canada s automotive exports are very small in relation to the inflow of automotive imports. This imbalance is represented in the preceding figure by the ratio of Canada s automotive imports to its exports, for our six largest automotive trading partners. The most extreme imbalance is experienced between Canada and Korea. During the first seven months of 2007, Korea exported 183 times as much automotive value to Canada, as Canada exported to Korea. (Canada s automotive exports to Korea so far this year have totaled just $5 million, mostly parts.) Canada s automotive exports to Korea (which were never significant) actually declined by 90 per cent between 2000 and 2006; Korea tightened its own limits on imports, while simultaneously promoting automotive exports, to spur its recovery from the financial crisis of the late 1990s. 10
12 The Auto Industry is Still Arguably Canada s Most Important Export Industry Canada s Top Exports (4-digit level, 2006, $billion) Passenger Vehicles 42.9 Crude Petroleum 37.9 Natural Gas / LPGs 30.8 Auto Parts 14.9 Refined Petroleum 12.2 Trucks 10.1 Lumber 9.3 Aircraft 7.4 Aluminum 7.2 Gold 5.4 Source: Industry Canada Strategis. Despite a 20 per cent decline in Canada s automotive exports since 1999, the auto industry is still arguably Canada s most important export industry, accounting for almost one-fifth of total exports. The table above lists the ten most important Canadian export products, measured by product category at the 4-digit level of disaggregation. By this measure, finished passenger vehicles still constitute Canada s largest export. Motor vehicle parts and assembled trucks also appear in the list of our top ten exports. Canada s role in the global economy is changing quickly, as a result of recordhigh commodity prices and massive exports of oil and other resources. However, it would be a glaring mistake to therefore conclude that the auto industry no longer matters to Canada s global performance. Auto products are still our most important exports. The deterioration in our automotive trade balance has been a major factor in Canada s poor recent trade performance in non-resource industries. Arresting that decline, and restoring Canada s status as a major net automotive exporter, should be a crucial priority for federal economic policy. 11
13 Conclusion and Policy Implications What was once a unique success story regarding Canada s high-value participation in world markets, has turned remarkably quickly into an industrial nightmare. Canada was once a major net exporter of automotive products, allowing our economy to capture a more-than-proportionate share of good auto jobs, productivity benefits, and positive macroeconomic spin-offs. Now we are a major net importer of automotive products and our auto trade performance continues to deteriorate at a record rate (in the face of an overvalued dollar and a one-way flood of imports from Asia and Europe). It would be folly for Canada to place its entire economic future in the basket of resource exports. We must work to preserve our ability to participate in world markets with other products products which embody knowledge, technology, and productivity, not just the resources that happen to lie under our feet. A focused national strategy to support Canada s auto industry is essential. And the evidence is overwhelming that managing our growing automotive trade deficit must be part of that strategy. Unfortunately, Canada s government is heading in exactly the wrong direction. A free-trade agreement with Korea would grant still greater access to our market by Korean producers, undoubtedly widening our substantial bilateral auto deficit. In fact, Korea has been one of the worst offenders behind the deterioration of Canada s automotive trade performance. Auto imports from Korea have grown almost 600% in the past decade, and outweigh our exports by a 183-to-1 ratio (the worst of any major trading partner). Korea s automotive purchases from Canada, in contrast, have declined by 90 percent since Given the mounting evidence of a trade crisis in what is still Canada s most important export industry, the federal government should stop FTA negotiations with Korea. Future trade talks must be integrated with a broader strategy to support auto and other high-value Canadian industries, and must feature focused measures to ensure that our automotive imports are matched by equivalent automotive exports. Appendix The trade data presented in this report are obtained from the Industry Canada Strategis web site, based on Statistics Canada data collection. Automotive exports and imports are defined as those arising from NAICS industry sectors 3361 (Motor Vehicle Manufacturing), 3362 (Motor Vehicle Body and Trailer Manufacturing), and 3363 (Motor Vehicle Parts Manufacturing). For the purposes of the tables on pages 3 and 4, NAICS sector 3362 is considered within the category of parts. The data in the table of top export products (on page 11) reflect a 4-digit harmonized product code definition rather than an industry definition. 12
9.1 billion René van Sloten Executive Director Industrial Policy
EU28 Cefic Number of companies Turnover 28,329 507 billion Capital spending Direct employees National contact 21.7 billion 1,140,000 R&D investment 9.1 billion René van Sloten Executive Director Industrial
More informationLandscape of the European Chemical Industry 2017
EU28 Cefic Number of companies Turnover 28,221 520.2 billion National contact Direct Employees 1,155,000 René van Sloten Executive Director rvs@cefic.be A CORNERSTONE OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMY The chemical
More informationTable 1. U.S. Agricultural Exports as a Share of Production, 1992
Export markets are important to U.S. agriculture, absorbing a substantial portion of total production of many important commodities. During the last two decades there have been periods of expansion and
More informationAlberta s Manufacturing Industry is Recovering in 2017
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY Alberta s Manufacturing Industry is Recovering in 2017 Highlights: Alberta s manufacturing industry was in recession in 2015 and 2016 as a result of the dramatic drop in crude oil prices.
More informationCrude Oil and Natural Gas Trade in North America: Anything New?
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Trade in North America: Anything New? André Plourde Department of Economics Faculty of Public Affairs Carleton University CRUDE OIL All data from US Energy Information Administration
More informationU.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices James K. Jackson Specialist in International Trade and Finance 1, 2015 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov RS22204 Summary Imported
More informationTop 5 US Export and Import Commodities
WWW.IBISWORLD.COM Special Report Month 2012 1 Follow on head on Master page A Special Report July 2012 Top 5 US Export and Import Commodities By Josh McBee and Justin Waterman Dominated by oil, cars and
More informationNorth Carolina Exports by Quarter (in constant 2Q 2013 dollars)
P. 1/6 in Billions in Billions 1 North Carolina Trade Report 1, First Half of 2013 Exports from North Carolina play an increasingly important role in the state s economic recovery and job growth. That
More informationShort Term Energy Outlook March 2011 March 8, 2011 Release
Short Term Energy Outlook March 2011 March 8, 2011 Release Highlights West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and other crude oil spot prices have risen about $15 per barrel since mid February partly in response
More informationHow Are Alberta s Largest Manufacturing Sectors Faring in the Current Recession?
ECONOMIC COMMENTARY How Are Alberta s Largest Manufacturing Sectors Faring in the Current Recession? Highlights: Alberta s manufacturing sector is currently in recession as a result of the dramatic drop
More informationU.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices
U.S. Trade Deficit and the Impact of Changing Oil Prices James K. Jackson Specialist in International Trade and Finance February 21, 2013 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of
More informationU.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook
U.S. EIA s Liquid Fuels Outlook NCSL 2011 Energy Policy Summit: Fueling Tomorrow s Transportation John Staub, Team Lead August 8, 2011 San Antonio, Texas U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent
More informationRECENT TRENDS OF NEW ZEALAND S INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT
RECENT TRENDS OF NEW ZEALAND S INTERNATIONAL FREIGHT TRANSPORT Haobo Wang and Joanne Leung Ministry of Transport 1, PO Box 3175, Wellington 6140, New Zealand ABSTRACT This paper investigates the extent
More informationUS Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy Projections in 2011
1800 K Street, NW Suite 400 Washington, DC 20006 Phone: 1.202.775.3270 Fax: 1.202.775.3199 Email: acordesman@gmail.com Web: www.csis.org/burke/reports US Oil and Gas Import Dependence: Department of Energy
More informationMazda Motor Corporation FISCAL YEAR MARCH 2018 FULL YEAR FINANCIAL RESULTS (Speech Outline)
(For your information) April 27, 2018 Mazda Motor Corporation FISCAL YEAR MARCH 2018 FULL YEAR FINANCIAL RESULTS (Speech Outline) Tetsuya Fujimoto Managing Executive Officer in charge of Finance Thank
More informationMore than half of the timber
Solid Wood Products Rising Consumption and Impor ts, Modest Price Growth Darius M. Adams ABSTRACT Based on findings of the current Resources Planning Act (RPA) Timber Assessment, residential construction
More informationLNG. Liquefied Natural Gas A Strategy for B.C. s Newest Industry
LNG Liquefied Natural Gas A Strategy for B.C. s Newest Industry LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS Message from the Premier The BC Jobs Plan released in September is all about leveraging our competitive advantages
More informationBBC Learning English Talk about English Insight Plus Part 6 Oil
BBC Learning English Insight Plus Part 6 Oil Jackie: Oil makes our world go round they call it black gold. It fuels our cars, runs our industries, it makes our countries work. So when oil prices go up,
More informationGlobal Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017
Global Energy & CO2 Status Report 2017 March 2018 Key findings Energy: Global energy demand increased by 2.1% in 2017, compared with 0.9% the previous year and 0.9% on average over the previous five years.
More informationIndonesia s Energy Requirements Part One: Current Energy Dynamics
10 February 2015 Indonesia s Energy Requirements Part One: Current Energy Dynamics Stewart Patterson FDI Associate Key Points Domestic consumption has been a key driver of Indonesian economic growth and,
More informationA TPP Agreement: An Opportunity for Illinois. Trade & Investment with TPP Countries Is Good for Illinois. Jobs Exports Investment 54%
Overview The United States and 11 other countries are currently negotiating a Trans- Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, which will strengthen trade and investment relationships across the Asia- Pacific
More informationProject on Organic Agriculture
Department of Agricultural Economics Project on Organic Agriculture Number 7 January 2005 By Shon Ferguson and Simon Weseen The Economic Effect of Canada Making or Missing the EU 3 rd Country List: The
More informationThe Petroleum Economics Monthly
The Petroleum Economics Monthly Philip K. Verleger, Jr. Volume XXXII, No. 4 April 2015 Where is the Oil? Million Barrels per Day 4 3 2 1 0 (1) (2) History and Projections of Global Crude Oil Stock Change
More informationProductivity Trends in Natural Resources Industries in Canada
111 Sparks Street, Suite 500 Ottawa, Ontario K1P 5B5 Tel: 613-233-8891 Fax: 613-233-8250 csls@csls.ca Productivity Trends in Natural Resources Industries in Canada Final Report: February 7, 2003 CSLS Research
More information1 Although the relative export price on a contract currency basis should normally be used, the dollar-based
Part II Strengthening Japan s competitiveness by taking advantage of its robustness Chapter 1 Analysis: Japan s competitive advantage in cross-border activities Section 1 Competitiveness in exports 1.
More informationOverview. Key Energy Issues to Economic Growth
Key Energy Issues to 225 The Energy Information Administration (EIA), in preparing model forecasts for its Annual Energy Outlook 25 (AEO25), evaluated a wide range of current trends and issues that could
More informationCurrent Economic & Carbon Black Market Scenario in South Asia
Current Economic & Carbon Black Market Scenario in South Asia November 2017 Plan - 2023 Content Sl No Table of Content 1. South Asia.. 2. Economic Environment 4. South Asia Economic Indicators 5. India
More information2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Report highlights
2016 Global Manufacturing Competitiveness Index Report highlights Years of successful collaboration exploring manufacturing competitiveness In collaboration with leading organizations, Deloitte has explored
More informationOutlook for the Oil and Gas Industry
Outlook for the Oil and Gas Industry VMA Market Outlook Workshop Boston, MA Spears& Associates Tulsa, OK August 2017 1 Outlook for the Oil and Gas Industry: Market Drivers Global oil consumption is forecast
More informationChina's Oil Demand Outlook
China's Oil Demand Outlook Qian Xingkun CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute 2016.09.08 Singapore 1 1. Lower Growth Rate, Intensity and Elasticity of China s Oil Demand since 2000 China s Oil
More informationFEDERAL RESERVE statistical release
FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release G.17 (419) For release at 9:15 a.m. (EDT) August 17, 2017 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in July following an
More informationDavid Coady, Stefania Fabrizio, Mumtaz Hussain, Baoping Shang, and Younes Zouhar
ENERGY SUBSIDY REFORM: LESSONS AND IMPLICATIONS CHAPTER 2. DEFINING AND MEASURING ENERGY SUBSIDIES David Coady, Stefania Fabrizio, Mumtaz Hussain, Baoping Shang, and Younes Zouhar Definition and Measurement
More informationThank you for this opportunity to present the concerns of the U.S. cotton industry.
April 25, 2013 Ames, IA Dr. Mark D. Lange President and CEO, National Cotton Council Testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission China s Agriculture Policy and U.S. Access to
More informationTHE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS ON UKRAINIAN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS
THE IMPACT OF THE GLOBAL CRISIS ON UKRAINIAN EXPORTS AND IMPORTS OF GOODS IULIIA DIACHENKO As the global economic outlook has worsened, Ukraine as an open emerging economy has been badly affected. For
More informationT he Asian economic and financial crisis
Patricia S. Pollard is an economist and Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Cletus C. Coughlin is a vice president and the Associate Director of Research at the Federal Reserve Bank
More informationImproved Price Signals to Encourage an Area Increase Next Year
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Date: 4/6/2017
More informationSouth Korea s 10th Long-term Natural Gas Supply/Demand Plan (Summary)
South Korea s 10th Long-term Natural Gas Supply/Demand Plan (Summary) Yoo Moonjong * Summary On December 31, 2010, the South Korean Ministry of Knowledge Economy released the 10th long-term natural gas
More informationA Short History of U.S. Freight Railroads
A Short History of U.S. Freight Railroads Association of American Railroads August 2017 Summary Since their birth more than 185 years ago, railroads have played a crucial role in America s development.
More informationMexico s Manufacturing Trade Performance: A Global Value Chain Approach
Mexico s Manufacturing Trade Performance: A Global Value Chain Approach Daniel Chiquiar* * The opinions expressed in this presentation are the author's own and do not reflect the view of Banco de Mexico
More informationAnalyst: Meilin C. Pierce Spring Recommendation: Hold Target Stock Price (12/31/2016): $120
Recommendation: Hold Target Stock Price (12/31/2016): $120 1. Reasons for the Recommendation My recommendation is to hold Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) because my forecast shows that the stock is currently
More information/ Press Information. After three years of consecutive growth, 2012 U.S. ad spend reaches $139.5 billion; Olympics, election contribute to gains.
/ Press Information Contact details: Bill Daddi Daddi Brand Communications Phone: 646-370-1341 Cell: 917-620-3717 Email: Bill@DaddiBrand.com KANTAR MEDIA REPORTS U.S. ADVERTISING EXPENDITURES INCREASED
More informationCommodity Market Forecasting
Commodity Market Forecasting What know and what we don t know about the future Global Insights 40 th Anniversary 22 October 2003 3001 Becker Road, P.O. Box 1269 Langley, WA 98260, USA Tel: +1+360 321 4707
More informationGlobalization: Implications for U.S. and Oklahoma Agriculture. Stillwater, Oklahoma November 9, 2012
Globalization: Implications for U.S. and Oklahoma Agriculture Stillwater, Oklahoma November 9, 2012 1 We Are Just One World Now Steve Jobs 2 From Today Forward will Be a profitable growth industry Be an
More informationMINISTER S SPEECH. Fourth Asian Round Table in Kuwait City ENERGY PRICE VOTALITY 18 th April 2011.
MINISTER S SPEECH Fourth Asian Round Table in Kuwait City ENERGY PRICE VOTALITY 18 th April 2011. His Excellency, Minister of Oil and Minister of Information, State of Kuwait, Honorable Chair, Honorable
More informationTrading patterns: Global and regional perspectives
Chapter V Trading patterns: Global and regional perspectives World merchandise trade in value terms fell by 3 per cent in 2016 following a 13 per cent slump recorded in 2015, with trade growth remaining
More informationAnalysis of USA Tariff Hike on Steel and Aluminium
Analysis of USA Tariff Hike on Steel and Aluminium Contact: Madan Sabnavis Chief Economist madan.sabnavis@careratings.com 91-22-6754489 Kavita Chacko Senior Economist kavita.chacko@careratings.com 91-22-67543687
More information02/04/2012. South Africa s industrial performance and its challenges. Sectoral composition of the SA economy. Gerhard Kuhn
South Africa s industrial performance and its challenges Gerhard Kuhn Local Innovation and Production Systems Seminar 2 April 2012 Sectoral composition of the SA economy Goods-producing sectors (i.e. Agriculture,
More informationOverview of America s Freight Railroads
Overview of America s Freight Railroads Association of American Railroads August 2017 Summary From one end of the country to the other, America is connected by the best freight rail system in the world.
More informationWeekly Geopolitical Report
1900 1906 1912 1918 1924 1930 1936 1942 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 Weekly Geopolitical Report By Kaisa Stucke November 10, 2014 Manufacturing Renaissance? Falling energy prices
More informationWORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2002 Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division World Energy Outlook Series World Energy Outlook 1998 World Energy Outlook - 1999 Insights: Looking at Energy
More informationSummer Fuels Outlook. Gasoline and diesel. April 2018
April 2018 Summer Fuels Outlook This outlook focuses on prices and consumption of gasoline, diesel, and electricity (see Summer Fuels Outlook motor gasoline table and electricity table). The use of these
More informationLatest developments in Germany's -ongoing -Energiewende
Latest developments in Germany's -ongoing -Energiewende Stefanie Pfahl Head of Wind Energy and Hydro Power Division, Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Building and Nuclear I am
More informationRailroads and Grain. Association of American Railroads June Summary
s and Grain Association of American s June 2017 Summary s are critical to grain transportation. In 2016, U.S. Class I railroads originated 1.54 million carloads of grain (5.6 percent of total carloads)
More informationTransport and Communications Bulletin for Asia and the Pacific No.71, 2001
Transport and Communications Bulletin for Asia and the Pacific No.71, 2001 SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT DEVELOPMENT IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA: POLICY MEASURES TO CONTAIN ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS
More informationPresident & CEO of the MANN+HUMMEL Group. Speech on the occasion of the financial press conference on
Alfred Weber President & CEO of the MANN+HUMMEL Group Speech on the occasion of the financial press conference on 3. April 2014 (balance sheet 2013) Not for release until: 3 April 2014, 10.00 a.m. - Check
More informationThe European chemical industry Facts & Figures 2013
The European chemical industry Facts & Figures 2013 Overview Chemical Industry Profile World chemicals sales: geographic breakdown 6 World chemicals sales by region 8 Chemicals sales by country: top 30
More informationImplications of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement for Agriculture and other Sectors of the Economy
Agribusiness & Applied Economics Report No. 619 October 2007 Implications of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement for Agriculture and other Sectors of the Economy Renan Zhuang Jeremy W. Mattson Won W. Koo
More informationSoybean Supply and Demand Forecast
Soybean Supply and Demand Forecast U.S. soybean planted acreage is expected to increase 5.7 million acres over the forecast period. U.S. soybean yields are expected to increase 2.2 bushels per acre or
More informationPRESENTATION ON CHALLENGES OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT IN KENYA
PRESENTATION ON CHALLENGES OF INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENT IN KENYA PRESENTED BY KIPRONO KITTONY NATIONAL CHAIRMAN 26 TH APRIL 2017 Table of Contents Strategies and main focus of
More information: A Decade of Change in Canadian Manufacturing Exports
Catalogue no. 11-621-M, no. 92 ISSN 1707-0503 ISBN 978-1-100-23159-4..Analytical Paper... Analysis in Brief 2002-2012: A Decade of Change in Canadian Manufacturing Exports by Benoît Carrière Manufacturing
More informationEmissions Intensity CHAPTER 5 EMISSIONS INTENSITY 25
C H A P T E R 5 Emissions Intensity Emissions intensity is the level of GHG emissions per unit of economic activity, usually measured at the national level as GDP. 25 Intensities vary widely across countries,
More informationAccelerated Depletion: Assessing Its Impacts on Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Prices and Production
SR/OIAF/2000-04 : Assessing Its Impacts on Domestic Oil and Natural Gas Prices and Production July 2000 Energy Information Administration Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting U.S. Department of
More informationLow-Carbon Mobility for Mega Cities
p sho p sho p sho SC HO OL Low-Carbon Mobility for Mega Cities What Different Policies Mean for Urban Transport Emissions in China and India sh op big 1 International Transport Forum: Global dialogue for
More informationCHANGES IN U.S. HARDWOOD LUMBER EXPORTS, 1990 TO 2008
CHANGES IN U.S. HARDWOOD LUMBER EXPORTS, 1990 TO 2008 William Luppold and Matthew Bumgardner 1 Abstract. The volume of hardwood lumber exported from the United States grew by 63 percent between 1990 and
More informationTHIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S.
THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY Required Report - public distribution Brazil Post: Brasilia
More informationThe Death of Fossil Fuels? Really?
The Death of Fossil Fuels? Really? May 1, 2018 by Niels Clemen Jensen of Absolute Return Partners "A century ago, petroleum - what we call oil - was just an obscure commodity; today it is almost as vital
More informationCircumstances of the Automotive Industry Impact on Aluminum Foundries
Paper 10-004.pdf, Page 1 of 17 Circumstances of the Automotive Industry Impact on Aluminum Foundries R. Gallo Molten Metal Equipment Innovations, Middlefield, Ohio Copyright 2010 American Foundry Society
More informationIowa Farm Outlook. March 2014 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Long-Term Projections for Beef Production and Trade
Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics March 2014 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2047 Long-Term Projections for Beef Production and Trade We often spend a lot of time focusing on the short-term market situation
More informationOutline. Overview and Purpose. World Population. Indicators of Consumer Behavior The Market Basket Energy Transportation Travel Purchasing Power
1 Outline Overview and Purpose World Population Indicators of Consumer Behavior The Market Basket Energy Transportation Travel Purchasing Power Conclusion 2 Market Basket: Overview The Market Basket is
More informationStatement Dr. Norbert Reithofer Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG Conference Call Interim Report to 31 March May 2013, 10:00 a.m.
- Check against delivery - Statement Dr. Norbert Reithofer Chairman of the Board of Management of BMW AG Conference Call Interim Report to 31 March 2013, 10:00 a.m. Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen,
More informationHow Brexit will affect UK energy and climate policy
How Brexit will affect UK energy and climate policy Briefing for parliamentarians and policy makers November 2017 The UK s energy market and climate policies are closely linked with those of other member
More informationLong-term Crude Oil Outlook
Volume 13 Long-term Crude Oil Outlook The Global Oil Balance - 2016-2040 ESAI Energy presents two global oil balances, one covering the period from 2015 to 2021 by year and one covering the period 2015-2040
More informationThe Petroleum Economics Monthly
The Petroleum Economics Monthly Philip K. Verleger, Jr. Volume XXVIII, No. 2 February 2011 THE TAR SANDS ROAD TO CHINA: THE LONG, TORTURED ROUTE FROM ALBERTA TO DALIAN The Tar Sands Crude Oil Road: Alberta,
More informationConsultant for Applied Research Branch Strategic Policy Human Resources Development Canada
EMPLOYMENT AND TRAINING PAPERS 25 The role of trade and technological change on the Canadian employment profile in a globalized context Marie Lavoie Consultant for Applied Research Branch Strategic Policy
More informationStatus and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S.
Status and outlook for shale gas and tight oil development in the U.S. for Energy Symposium, University of Oklahoma, Price College Energy Institute Norman, OK by Adam Sieminski, Administrator U.S. Energy
More informationGlobal Trends. drupa. 4th drupa Global Trends report 2017 Executive Summary Introduction
drupa Global Trends 4th drupa Global Trends report 217 Executive Summary Introduction Welcome to the executive summary of our 4th drupa Global Trends report, tracking key economic and market developments
More informationIowa Farm Outlook. December 2015 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info Replacement Quality Heifer Prices Supported by Latest Data
Iowa Farm Outlook 0BDepartment of Economics December 2015 Ames, Iowa Econ. Info. 2068 Replacement Quality Heifer Prices Supported by Latest Data Beef cow herd expansion started briskly in 2014 with a 2.1%
More informationConsumer Packaged Goods Trade Balance Continues to Decline - Is the Canadian CPG Industry in Trouble?
Consumer Packaged Goods Trade Balance Continues to Decline - Is the Canadian CPG Industry in Trouble? Kevin Grier, Senior Market Analyst, George Morris Centre Simon Dessureault, Agri-Food Economist July
More informationCanada is in the Trans-Pacific Partnership: What Now? Bob Seguin Executive Director
Canada is in the Trans-Pacific Partnership: What Now? Bob Seguin Executive Director June 2012 Introduction After months of speculation, skepticism, some outright cynicism, doubt and hope, Canada has been
More informationST98: 2018 ALBERTA S ENERGY RESERVES & SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK. Executive Summary.
ST98: 2018 ALBERTA S ENERGY RESERVES & SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK Executive Summary ST98 www.aer.ca EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Alberta Energy Regulator (AER) ensures the safe, efficient, orderly, and environmentally
More informationGrowth with structural transformation: A post-2015 development agenda
UNCTAD/LDC/214 UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT The Least Developed Countries Report 214 Growth with structural transformation: A post-215 development agenda Chapter 4 Structural Transformation
More informationThe most recent publication of MAP (in June)
Composition of agricultural trade of major WTO players 2 July 26 MAP - Brief Monitoring Agri-trade Policy European Commission Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development The most recent publication
More informationUnit 2 Economics. Chapter 3 Political and Economic Analysis Chapter 4 Global Analysis
Unit 2 Economics Chapter 3 Political and Economic Analysis Chapter 4 Global Analysis Chapter 3 Political and Economic Analysis Section 3.1 What Is an Economy? Section 3.2 Understanding the Economy What
More informationDevelopments in the Avocado World
California Avocado Society 2007 Yearbook 90: 71-76 Gabi Naamani Agrexco Tel-Aviv, Israel Developments in the Avocado World Recent estimates of the annual world avocado production vary between 2.0 to 4.1
More informationContents. The interface between the mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa. Jorge Maia Head: Department of Research and Information
Contents The interface between the mining and manufacturing sectors in South Africa Jorge Maia Head: Department of Research and Information Contents A changing economy 1 Mining and manufactured products
More informationCHAPTER 4: A REVIEW OF THE ENERGY ECONOMY IN IRAN AND OTHER COUNTRIES
CHAPTER 4: A REVIEW OF THE ENERGY ECONOMY IN IRAN AND OTHER COUNTRIES 60 Nowadays, energy is the lifeblood of modern civilization. The shortage of energy that can be one of the issues related to the economy
More informationSection IV: Outside Actors
Section IV: Outside Actors 8. Taking the China Challenge: China and the Future of Latin American Economic Development Kevin P. Gallagher 1 Over the past 30 years, both China and nations across Latin America
More informationTHE ECONOMY-WIDE EFFECTS IN THE UNITED STATES OF REPLACING CRUDE PETROLEUM WITH BIOMASS
THE ECONOMY-WIDE EFFECTS IN THE UNITED STATES OF REPLACING CRUDE PETROLEUM WITH BIOMASS by Peter B. Dixon, Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University Stefan Osborne, International Trade Administration,
More informationBDC S ENTREPRENEURIAL INSIGHT
BDC S ENTREPRENEURIAL INSIGHT Spring 2009 GOING INTERNATIONAL? INSIGHTS FROM SMEs To help Canadian businesses understand the profile of internationalized small and mediumsized enterprises (SMEs), BDC surveyed
More informationDAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS
3. COMMODITY SNAPSHOTS Market situation DAIRY AND DAIRY PRODUCTS International dairy prices started to increase in the last half of 2016, with butter and whole milk powder (WMP) accounting for most of
More informationNovember 2 nd, 2005 San Jose, Costa Rica
A SECTORAL OVERVIEW OF THE EFFECTS OF TRADE AGREEMENTS IN LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN PREPARED BY THE OAS OFFICE FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ENVIRONMENT FOR THE OAS-IICA EXPERTS WORKSHOP ON SUSTAINABLE
More informationCURRENCY VALUES AND TRADE A STRONG U.S. DOLLAR INCREASES COMPETITION FOR U.S. PRODUCERS. John J. VanSickle. PBTC November 2003
PBTC 03-16 PBTC 02-6 CURRENCY VALUES AND TRADE A STRONG U.S. DOLLAR INCREASES COMPETITION FOR U.S. PRODUCERS By John J. VanSickle PBTC 03-16 November 2003 POLICY BRIEF SERIES 1 INTERNATIONAL AGRICULTURAL
More informationMolybdenum and Vanadium Market Fundamentals
Molybdenum and Vanadium Market Fundamentals International Titanium Association Titanium 2012 Conference Terry Perles MoTiV Metals LLC October 7 10, 2012 Atlanta GA Terry.perles@motivmetals.com 1.0 Molybdenum
More informationChina's Economic Ties with Southeast Asia
Vol. 7 No. 18 ISSN 2233-9140 China's Economic Ties with Southeast Asia OH Yoon Ah Research Fellow, Southeast Asia and Oceania Team, Department of Asia-Pacific (yaoh@kiep.go.kr) I. Introduction In the past
More informationBBC NEWS COAL RESURGENCE CALLS UNDERMINES CLEAN ENERGY COMMITMENTS
BBC NEWS COAL RESURGENCE CALLS UNDERMINES CLEAN ENERGY COMMITMENTS by Richard Anderson Business reporter - BBC News 22 Nov 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20002801 CMG Archives http://www.campbellmgold.com
More informationKey Global Supply Trends & North America Market Outlook: Impacts on BC Lumber Industry
Key Global Supply Trends & North America Market Outlook: Impacts on BC Lumber Industry Russell Taylor, President International WOOD MARKETS Group Inc. Vancouver, B.C., Canada Presentation Outline 1. Global
More informationLMI 101: Key concepts
LMI 101: Key concepts Key concepts is one of three LMI 101 guides available for download from the HR Council at hrcouncil.ca. Also available: Putting LMI to work in HR management Putting LMI to work in
More informationA world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November APEC CEO Survey. Indonesia findings.
A world in transition: PwC s 2017 APEC CEO Survey, November 2017 2017 APEC CEO Survey Indonesia findings www.pwc.com/apec Key themes Making of the workforce of the future An operating model for a fluid
More informationRussia s Planned Export Tax On Logs: Global Implications
Sector: Paper & Forest Products Sector Weighting: Underweight Don Roberts, Managing Director 613-564-0827 Don.Roberts@cibc.ca Russia s Planned Export Tax On Logs: Global Implications 2007 British Columbia
More information