No comments related to GHG emissions were received in response to the Notice of Preparation.

Transcription

1 4.5 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS This section evaluates short-term (construction) and long-term (operational) impacts related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and climate change that would potentially occur as a result of implementation of the proposed Cypress College Facilities Master Plan (proposed project). Applicable laws, regulations, and standards enacted by the federal and state governments, and thresholds of significance used in this analysis are provided in Section 4.5.2, Relevant Plans, Policies, and Ordinances, and Section 4.5.3, Thresholds of Significance, respectively. Emissions associated with the proposed project were calculated using the California Emissions Estimator Model (CalEEMod), Version (available online at and are discussed in Section 4.6.4, Impacts Analysis. No comments related to GHG emissions were received in response to the Notice of Preparation Existing Conditions The Greenhouse Effect Climate change refers to any significant change in measures of climate, such as temperature, precipitation, or wind, lasting for an extended period (decades or longer). A GHG is any gas that absorbs infrared radiation in the atmosphere; in other words, GHGs trap heat in the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is the trapping and build-up of heat in the atmosphere (troposphere) near the Earth s surface. The greenhouse effect traps heat in the troposphere through a threefold process as follows: Short-wave radiation emitted by the Sun is absorbed by the Earth, the Earth emits a portion of this energy in the form of long-wave radiation, and GHGs in the upper atmosphere absorb this long-wave radiation and emit it into space and toward the Earth. The greenhouse effect is a natural process that contributes to regulating the Earth s temperature. Without it, the temperature of the Earth would be about 0 F ( 18 C) instead of its present 57 F (14 C). Global climate change concerns are focused on whether human activities are leading to an enhancement of the greenhouse effect (National Climatic Data Center 2015) Greenhouse Gases and Global Warming Potential GHGs include, but are not limited to, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ), nitrous oxide (N 2 O), ozone (O 3 ), water vapor (H 2 O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ). Some GHGs, such as CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O, occur naturally and are emitted to the atmosphere through natural processes and human activities. Of these gases, CO 2 and CH 4 are emitted in the greatest quantities from human activities. Man-made GHGs, which have a much greater heat-absorption potential than CO 2, include fluorinated gases, such as HFCs, HCFCs, PFCs, and SF 6, which are associated with September

2 certain industrial products and processes. A summary of the most common GHGs and their sources is included in the following text. 1 Carbon Dioxide CO 2 is a naturally occurring gas and a by-product of human activities, and is the principal anthropogenic GHG that affects the Earth s radiative balance. Natural sources of CO 2 include respiration of bacteria, plants, animals, and fungus; evaporation from oceans; volcanic outgassing; and decomposition of dead organic matter. Human activities that generate CO 2 are from the combustion of coal, oil, natural gas, and wood. Methane CH 4 is a flammable gas and is the main component of natural gas. Methane is produced through anaerobic (without oxygen) decomposition of waste in landfills, flooded rice fields, animal digestion, decomposition of animal wastes, production and distribution of natural gas and petroleum, coal production, and incomplete fossil fuel combustion. Nitrous Oxide Sources of N 2 O include soil cultivation practices (microbial processes in soil and water), especially the use of commercial and organic fertilizers, manure management, industrial processes (such as in nitric acid production, nylon production, and fossil fuel-fired power plants), vehicle emissions, and the use of N 2 O as a propellant (such as in rockets, racecars, aerosol sprays). Fluorinated Gases Fluorinated gases are synthetic, powerful GHGs that are emitted from a variety of industrial processes. Several prevalent fluorinated gases include the following: Hydrofluorocarbons: HFCs are compounds containing only hydrogen, fluorine, and carbon atoms. HFCs are synthetic chemicals that are used as alternatives to ozonedepleting substances in serving many industrial, commercial, and personal needs. HFCs are emitted as by-products of industrial processes and are used in manufacturing. 1 The descriptions of GHGs are summarized from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Second Assessment Report, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, California Air Resources Board s (CARB s) Glossary of Terms Used in GHG Inventories (CARB 2015), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency s (EPA s) Glossary of Climate Change Terms (EPA 2016a). September

3 Hydrochlorofluorocarbons: HCFCs are compounds containing hydrogen, fluorine, chlorine, and carbon atoms. HFCs are synthetic chemicals that are used as alternatives to ozone-depleting substances (chlorofluorocarbons). Perfluorocarbons: PFCs are a group of human-made chemicals composed of carbon and fluorine only. These chemicals were introduced as alternatives, along with HFCs, to the ozone-depleting substances. The two main sources of PFCs are primarily aluminum production and semiconductor manufacturing. Since PFCs have stable molecular structures and do not break down through the chemical processes in the lower atmosphere, these chemicals have long lifetimes, ranging between 10,000 and 50,000 years. Sulfur Hexafluoride: SF 6 is a colorless gas that is soluble in alcohol and ether and slightly soluble in water. SF 6 is used for insulation in electric power transmission and distribution equipment, semiconductor manufacturing, the magnesium industry, and as a tracer gas for leak detection. Gases in the atmosphere can contribute to climate change both directly and indirectly. Direct effects occur when the gas itself absorbs radiation. Indirect radiative forcing occurs when chemical transformations of the substance produce other GHGs, when a gas influences the atmospheric lifetimes of other gases, and/or when a gas affects atmospheric processes that alter the radiative balance of the Earth (e.g., affects cloud formation or albedo [reflective power of a surface or body, such as the moon or a cloud]) (EPA 2016b). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed the concept of Global Warming Potential (GWP) to compare the ability of each GHG to trap heat in the atmosphere relative to another gas. The GWP of a GHG is defined as the ratio of the time-integrated radiative forcing from the instantaneous release of 1 kilogram of a trace substance relative to that of 1 kilogram of a reference gas (IPCC 2014). The reference gas used is CO 2 ; therefore, GWP-weighted emissions are measured in metric tons of CO 2 equivalent (MT CO 2 E). CalEEMod assumes that the GWP for CH 4 is 21 (which means that emissions of 1 MT of CH 4 are equivalent to emissions of 21 MT of CO 2 ), and the GWP for N 2 O is 310, based on the IPCC Second Assessment Report (IPCC 1996). The IPCC has released subsequent assessment reports with updated GWPs, and statewide documents are beginning to transition to the use of the GWPs in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007). GWP used in EPA s Inventory of U.S Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks (EPA 2016b) and California Air Resources Board s (CARB s) California 2016 GHG emissions inventory (CARB 2016) are based on the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007), which includes 1 for CO 2, 25 for CH 4, and 298 for N 2 O. Nonetheless, the use of the different GWPs would not substantially change the overall projectgenerated GHG emissions, which are primarily CO 2. As such, for the purposes of this analysis, it is appropriate to use the hardwired GWP values in CalEEMod from the IPCC Second Assessment Report. September

4 Climate Change Conditions and Inventories Contributions to Greenhouse Gas Emissions Per EPA s Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: total United States GHG emissions were approximately 6,870.5 MMT CO 2 E in 2014 (EPA 2016b). The primary GHG emitted by human activities in the United States was CO 2, which represented approximately 80.9% of total GHG emissions (5,556.0 MMT CO 2 E). The largest source of CO 2, and of overall GHG emissions, was fossil-fuel combustion, which accounted for approximately 93.7% of CO 2 emissions in 2014 (5,208.2 MMT CO 2 E). Total United States GHG emissions have increased by 7.4% from 1990 to 2014, and emissions increased from 2013 to 2014 by 1.0% (70.5 MMT CO 2 E). Since 1990, United States GHG emissions have increased at an average annual rate of 0.3%; however, overall, net emissions in 2014 were 8.6% below 2005 levels (EPA 2016b). According to California s GHG emissions inventory (2016 edition), California emitted MMT CO 2 E in 2014, including emissions resulting from out-of-state electrical generation (CARB 2016). The sources of GHG emissions in California include transportation, industry, electric power production from both in-state and out-of-state sources, residential and commercial activities, agriculture, high global-warming potential substances, and recycling and waste. The California GHG emission source categories and their relative contributions in 2014 are presented in Table 4.5-1, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sources in California. Table GHG Emissions Sources in California Source Category Annual GHG Emissions (MMT CO2E) Percent of Total a Transportation % Industrial Uses % Electricity Generation b % Residential and Commercial uses % Agriculture % High Global Warming Potential Substances % Recycling and Waste % Total % Source: CARB Notes: Emissions reflect 2014 California GHG inventory MMT CO2E = million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year a Percentage of total has been rounded and total may not sum due to rounding. b Includes emissions associated with imported electricity, which account for MMT CO2E annually. During the 2000 to 2014 period, per capita GHG emissions in California have continued to drop from a peak in 2001 of 13.9 metric tons per person to 11.4 metric tons per person in 2014, representing an 18% decrease. In addition, total GHG emissions in 2014 were 2.8 MMT CO 2 E less than 2013 September

5 emissions. The declining trend in GHG emissions, coupled with programs that will continue to provide additional GHG reductions going forward, demonstrates that California is on track to meet the 2020 target of 431 MMT CO 2 E (CARB 2016). Potential Effects of Human Activity on Climate Change Globally, climate change has the potential to affect numerous environmental resources through uncertain impacts related to future air temperature and precipitation patterns. The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Synthesis Report indicated that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Signs that global climate change has occurred include warming of the atmosphere and ocean, diminished amounts of snow and ice, and rising sea levels (IPCC 2014). In California, climate change impacts have the potential to affect sea level rise, agriculture, snowpack and water supply, forestry, wildfire risk, public health, and electricity demand and supply (CCCC 2006). The primary effect of global climate change has been a 0.2 C (32.4 F) rise in average global tropospheric temperature per decade, determined from meteorological measurements worldwide between 1990 and Scientific modeling predicts that continued emissions of GHGs at or above current rates would induce more extreme climate changes during the twenty-first century than were observed during the twentieth century. A warming of about 0.2 C (32.4 F) per decade is projected, and there are identifiable signs that global warming could be taking place. Although climate change is driven by global atmospheric conditions, climate change impacts are felt locally. A scientific consensus confirms that climate change is already affecting California. The average temperatures in California have increased, leading to more extreme hot days and fewer cold nights; shifts in the water cycle have been observed, with less winter precipitation falling as snow, and both snowmelt and rainwater running off earlier in the year; sea levels have risen; and wildland fires are becoming more frequent and intense due to dry seasons that start earlier and end later (CAT 2010a). An increase in annual average temperature is a reasonably foreseeable effect of climate change. Observed changes over the last several decades across the western United States reveal clear signals of climate change. Statewide average temperatures increased by about 1.7 F from 1895 to 2011, and warming has been greatest in the Sierra Nevada (CCCC 2012). By 2050, California is projected to warm by approximately 2.7 F above 2000 averages, a threefold increase in the rate of warming over the last century. By 2100, average temperatures could increase by 4.1 F to 8.6 F, depending on emissions levels. Springtime warming a critical influence on snowmelt will be particularly pronounced. Summer temperatures will rise more than winter temperatures, September

6 and the increases will be greater in inland California, compared to the coast. Heat waves will be more frequent, hotter, and longer. There will be fewer extremely cold nights (CCCC 2012). A decline of Sierra snowpack, which accounts for approximately half of the surface water storage in California, by 30% to as much as 90% is predicted over the next 100 years (CAT 2006). Model projections for precipitation over California continue to show the Mediterranean pattern of wet winters and dry summers with seasonal, year-to-year, and decade-to-decade variability. For the first time, however, several of the improved climate models shift toward drier conditions by the mid-to-late 21st century in Central and, most notably, Southern California. By latecentury, all projections show drying, and half of them suggest 30-year average precipitation will decline by more than 10% below the historical average (CCCC 2012). Wildfire risk in California will increase as a result of climate change. Earlier snowmelt, higher temperatures, and longer dry periods over a longer fire season will directly increase wildfire risk. Indirectly, wildfire risk will also be influenced by potential climate-related changes in vegetation and ignition potential from lightning. However, human activities will continue to be the biggest factor in ignition risk. It is estimated that the long-term increase in fire occurrence associated with a higher emissions scenario is substantial, with increases in the number of large fires statewide ranging from 58% to 128% above historical levels by Under the same emissions scenario, estimated burned area will increase by 57% to 169%, depending on location (CCCC 2012). Reduction in the suitability of agricultural lands for traditional crop types may occur. While effects may occur, adaptation could allow farmers and ranchers to minimize potential negative effects on agricultural outcomes through adjusting timing of plantings or harvesting and changing crop types. Public health-related effects of increased temperatures and prolonged temperature extremes, including heat stroke, heat exhaustion, and exacerbation of existing medical conditions, could be particular problems for the elderly, infants, and those who lack access to air conditioning or cooled spaces (CNRA 2009a) Existing Emissions GHG emissions generated during operation of existing Cypress College buildings and facilities were estimated to provide a baseline for comparison to projected operational emissions generated by buildout of buildings and facilities of the proposed project. Year 2015 was used to represent September

7 existing conditions. 2 Operation of Cypress College currently results in GHG emissions through energy use (natural gas and generation of electricity consumed by the existing buildings and facilities); motor vehicle trips to existing Cypress College land uses; generation of electricity associated with water supply, treatment, and distribution and wastewater treatment; and solid waste disposal. Annual GHG emissions from these sources were estimated using CalEEMod. Cypress College currently generates GHG emissions primarily through vehicular traffic (mobile sources) generated by students, faculty and staff, employees, and visitors to the campus. Emissions associated with existing daily traffic were modeled using weekday trip-generation rates, which were calculated using the project traffic generation values provided in the traffic impact analysis report (Appendix F). CalEEMod default Saturday and Sunday trip-generation rates were adjusted based on weekday trip-generation rates per land use type, as weekend trip-generation rates were not provided in the traffic impact analysis report. CalEEMod default data for temperature, variable start information, and emission factors were conservatively used for the model inputs. Project-related traffic was assumed to consist of a mixture of vehicles in accordance with the model outputs for traffic. Emission factors representing the vehicle mix and emissions for 2016 emission factors were used to represent existing conditions. In addition to estimating mobile source emissions, CalEEMod was used to estimate emissions from the project area sources, which include gasoline-powered landscape maintenance equipment, consumer products, and architectural coatings for the maintenance of buildings. The estimated existing operational emissions were based on existing land use defaults and total area (i.e., square footage) of Cypress College buildings and facilities that were in operation in Existing development of academic, general administrative, auxiliary, and recreational land uses on the campus totals 847,019 gross square feet (GSF) and 4,306 parking lot spaces. Emissions from energy sources, which include natural gas appliances, space and water heating, and building electricity, were also estimated using CalEEMod. Indoor and outdoor water use was assumed to be 18,150,720 and 42,335,255 gallons per year, respectively, based on Cypress College s water consumption from November 2014 through October The project s solid waste generation rate was changed to 2,368 tons per year based on total solid waste generated by Cypress College in the year Natural gas consumption defaults were also revised through Title 24 and non-title 24 natural gas energy intensities to values of and thousand British thermal units per 1,000 square feet per year, respectively, to reflect Cypress College s natural gas consumption for the fiscal year. Electricity consumption defaults were also revised through Title 24 and non-title 24 electricity intensities, and lighting energy 2 Most of the existing data for the campus reflect conditions in the 2014 to 2016 time frame; 2015 was selected as an average for purposes of the baseline analysis because the majority of the data used in this analysis came from the year 2015 (natural gas consumption, electricity consumption, potable water consumption, and solid waste generation). September

8 intensities to values of 2.88, 1.28, and 1.59 kilowatt-hours per 1,000 square feet per year, respectively, to reflect Cypress College s natural gas consumption for the fiscal year. The estimated existing operational GHG emissions from electricity usage, mobile sources, water consumption, wastewater treatment, and solid waste generation in 2015 are shown in Table 4.5-2, Estimated Existing Operational GHG Emissions. Details of the emission calculations are provided in Appendix B to this Program Environmental Impact Report (EIR). Table Estimated Existing Operational GHG Emissions CO2 CH4 N2O CO2E Emission Source metric tons per year Area 0.13 < Energy (natural gas and electricity) 3, , Mobile source 27, , Solid waste , Water supply and wastewater Total 31, , Note: See Appendix B for complete results. GHG = greenhouse gas; CO2 = carbon dioxide; CH4 = methane; N2O = nitrous oxide; CO2E = carbon dioxide equivalent Relevant Plans, Policies, and Ordinances Federal Massachusetts vs. EPA On April 2, 2007, in Massachusetts v. EPA, the Supreme Court directed the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrator to determine whether GHG emissions from new motor vehicles cause or contribute to air pollution that may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare, or whether the science is too uncertain to make a reasoned decision. In making these decisions, the EPA Administrator is required to follow the language of Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. On December 7, 2009, the EPA Administrator signed a final rule with the following two distinct findings regarding GHGs under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act: The EPA Administrator found that elevated concentrations of GHGs CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF 6 in the atmosphere threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations. This is referred to as the endangerment finding. The EPA Administrator further found the combined emissions of GHGs CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the GHG air pollution that endangers public health and welfare. This is referred to as the cause or contribute finding. September

9 These two findings were necessary to establish the foundation for regulation of GHGs from new motor vehicles as air pollutants under the Clean Air Act. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 On December 19, 2007, President George W. Bush signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of Among other key measures, the Act would do the following, which would aid in the reduction of national GHG emissions: 1. Increase the supply of alternative fuel sources by setting a mandatory Renewable Fuel Standard requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel in Set a target of 35 miles per gallon for the combined fleet of cars and light trucks by model year 2020 and directs National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) to establish a fuel economy program for medium- and heavy-duty trucks and create a separate fuel economy standard for work trucks. 3. Prescribe or revise standards affecting regional efficiency for heating and cooling products and procedures for new or amended standards, energy conservation, energyefficiency labeling for consumer electronic products, residential boiler efficiency, electric motor efficiency, and home appliances. EPA and NHTSA Joint Final Rules for Vehicle Standards On April 1, 2010, the EPA and NHTSA announced a joint final rule to establish a national program consisting of new standards for light-duty vehicle model years 2012 through 2016 that is intended to reduce GHG emissions and improve fuel economy. The EPA approved the firstever national GHG emissions standards under the Clean Air Act, and NHTSA approved Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards under the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (75 FR ), which became effective on July 6, The EPA s GHG standards require new passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and medium-duty passenger vehicles to meet an estimated combined average emissions level of 250 grams of CO 2 per mile in model year The CAFE standards for passenger cars and light trucks will be phased in between 2012 and The rules will simultaneously reduce GHG emissions, improve energy security, increase fuel savings, and provide clarity and predictability for manufacturers (EPA 2010). In August 2012, the EPA and NHTSA approved a second round of GHG and CAFE standards for model years 2017 and beyond (77 FR ). These standards will reduce motor vehicle GHG emissions for cars and light-duty trucks by model year September

10 Clean Power Plan and New Source Performance Standards for Electric Generating Units On October 23, 2015, EPA published a final rule (effective December 22, 2015) establishing the Carbon Pollution Emission Guidelines for Existing Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units (80 FR ), also known as the Clean Power Plan. These guidelines prescribe how states must develop plans to reduce GHG emissions from existing fossil-fuel-fired electric generating units. The guidelines establish CO 2 emission performance rates representing the best system of emission reduction for two subcategories of existing fossil-fuel-fired electric generating units: (1) fossil-fuel-fired electric utility steam-generating units, and (2) stationary combustion turbines. Concurrently, EPA published a final rule (effective October 23, 2015) establishing Standards of Performance for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from New, Modified, and Reconstructed Stationary Sources: Electric Utility Generating Units (80 FR ). The rule prescribes CO 2 emission standards for newly constructed, modified, and reconstructed affected fossil-fuel-fired electric utility generating units. Implementation of the Clean Power Plan has been stayed by the U.S. Supreme Court pending resolution of several lawsuits. State Title 24 Title 24 of the California Code of Regulations was established in 1978 and serves to enhance and regulate California s building standards. While not initially promulgated to reduce GHG emissions, Part 6 of Title 24 specifically establishes Building Energy Efficiency Standards that are designed to ensure new and existing buildings in the State of California achieve energy efficiency and preserve outdoor and indoor environmental quality. The California Energy Commission (CEC) is required by law to adopt standards every 3 years that are cost effective for homeowners over the 30-year lifespan of a building. These standards are updated to consider and incorporate new energy efficient technologies and construction methods. As a result, these standards save energy, increase electricity supply reliability, increase indoor comfort, avoid the need to construct new power plants, and help preserve the environment. The current Title 24 standards are the 2013 standards, which became effective on July 1, Buildings constructed in accordance with the 2013 standards will use 25% less energy for lighting, heating, cooling, ventilation, and water heating than the 2008 standards (CEC 2012). The 2016 Title 24 building energy efficiency standards, which will be effective January 1, 2017, will further reduce energy used and associated GHG emissions. In general, single-family homes built to the 2016 standards are anticipated to use about 28% less energy for lighting, heating, cooling, ventilation, and water heating than those built to the 2013 standards, and non-residential buildings built to the 2016 standards will use an estimated 5% less energy than those built to the 2013 standards (CEC 2015). Although the project would be required to comply with 2016 Title 24 September

11 standards because it is anticipated to be constructed during or after 2017, this analysis conservatively does not quantify the increase energy efficiency associated with the more stringent 2016 Title 24 standards. Title 24 also includes Part 11, known as California s Green Building Standards (CALGreen). The CALGreen standards took effect in January 2011 and instituted mandatory minimum environmental performance standards for all ground-up, new construction of commercial, low-rise residential and state-owned buildings, and schools and hospitals. The mandatory standards require the following (24 CCR Part 11): 1. 20% mandatory reduction in indoor water use % of construction and demolition waste must be diverted from landfills. 3. Mandatory inspections of energy systems to ensure optimal working efficiency. 4. Low-pollutant emitting exterior and interior finish materials, such as paints, carpets, vinyl flooring, and particle boards. The CALGreen standards also include voluntary efficiency measures that are provided at two separate tiers and implemented at the discretion of local agencies and applicants. CALGreen s Tier 1 standards call for a 15% improvement in energy requirements, stricter water conservation, 65% diversion of construction and demolition waste, 10% recycled content in building materials, 20% permeable paving, 20% cement reduction, and cool/solar-reflective roofs. CALGreen s more rigorous Tier 2 standards call for a 30% improvement in energy requirements, stricter water conservation, 75% diversion of construction and demolition waste, 15% recycled content in building materials, 30% permeable paving, 30% cement reduction, and cool/solar-reflective roofs. Assembly Bill 939 and Assembly Bill 341 In 1989, Assembly Bill (AB) 939, known as the Integrated Waste Management Act (Public Resources Code Sections et seq.), was passed because of the increase in waste stream and the decrease in landfill capacity. The statute established the California Integrated Waste Management Board, which oversees a disposal reporting system. AB 939 mandated a reduction of waste being disposed where jurisdictions were required to meet diversion goals of all solid waste through source reduction, recycling, and composting activities of 25% by 1995 and 50% by the year AB 341 (Chapter 476, Statutes of 2011 (Chesbro)) amended the California Integrated Waste Management Act of 1989 to include a provision declaring that it is the policy goal of the state that not less than 75% of solid waste generated be source-reduced, recycled, or composted by the year 2020 and annually thereafter. In addition, AB 341 required the California Department of Resources Recycling and Recovery (CalRecycle) to develop strategies to achieve the state s policy goal. CalRecycle conducted several stakeholder workshops, and in May 2012, September

12 published a discussion document titled California s New Goal: 75 Percent Recycling, which identifies concepts that CalRecycle believes would assist the state in reaching the 75% goal by 2020 (CalRecycle 2012). Assembly Bill 1493 In a response to the transportation sector accounting for more than half of California s CO 2 emissions, AB 1493 (Pavley) was enacted in July AB 1493 required CARB to set GHG emission standards for passenger vehicles, light-duty trucks, and other vehicles determined by the state board to be vehicles that are primarily used for noncommercial personal transportation in the state. The bill required that CARB set GHG emission standards for motor vehicles manufactured in 2009 and all subsequent model years. CARB adopted the standards in September When fully phased in, the near-term ( ) standards will result in a reduction of about 22% in GHG emissions compared to the emissions from the 2002 fleet, while the mid-term ( ) standards will result in a reduction of about 30%. Senate Bill 1078 Senate Bill (SB) 1078 (Sher) (September 2002) established the Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) program, which requires an annual increase in renewable generation by the utilities equivalent to at least 1% of sales, with an aggregate goal of 20% by This goal was subsequently accelerated, requiring utilities to obtain 20% of their power from renewable sources by 2010 (see SB 107 and Executive Orders (EOs) S and S ) Executive Order S-3-05 EO S-3-05 (June 2005) established the following goals: GHG emissions should be reduced to 2000 levels by 2010, GHG emissions should be reduced to 1990 levels by 2020, and GHG emissions should be reduced to 80% below 1990 levels by Under EO S-3-05, the California EPA is directed to report biannually on progress made toward meeting the GHG targets and the impacts to California due to global warming, including impacts to water supply, public health, agriculture, the coastline, and forestry. The Climate Action Team was formed, which subsequently issued the 2006 Climate Action Team Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature (CAT 2006). The 2009 Climate Action Team Biennial Report (CAT 2010b) expands on the policy outlined in the 2006 assessment. The 2009 report identifies the need for additional research in several different aspects that affect climate change in order to support effective climate change strategies. Subsequently, the 2010 Climate Action Team Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the California Legislature (CAT 2010a) reviews past climate action milestones including voluntary reporting programs, GHG standards for passenger vehicles, the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS), a statewide renewable energy standard, and the cap-and-trade program. September

13 Assembly Bill 32 In furtherance of the goals established in EO S-3-05, the legislature enacted AB 32 (Núñez and Pavley), the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (September 27, 2006). AB 32 requires California to reduce its GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020, representing a reduction of approximately 15% below emissions expected under a business-as-usual scenario. AB 32 directs CARB to develop programs and requirements necessary to achieve the AB 32 goals; to adopt regulations requiring the reporting and verification of statewide GHG emissions; and to monitor compliance and enforcing any rule, regulation, order, emission limitation, emission reduction measure, or market-based compliance mechanism adopted. AB 32 also directs Climate Action Team to coordinate the efforts set forth under EO S-3-05 to continue its role in coordinating overall climate policy. Pursuant to AB 32, CARB must adopt regulations to achieve the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG emission reductions. Reductions in GHG emissions will come from virtually all sectors of the economy and will be accomplished from a combination of policies, planning, direct regulations, market approaches, incentives, and voluntary efforts. These efforts target GHG emission reductions from cars and trucks, electricity production, fuels, and other sources. The full implementation of AB 32 will help mitigate risks associated with climate change, while improving energy efficiency, expanding the use of renewable energy resources, cleaner transportation, and reducing waste. As required under AB 32, on December 6, 2007, CARB approved the 1990 GHG emissions inventory, thereby establishing the emissions limit for The 2020 emissions limit was set at 427 million metric tons (MMT) of CO 2 E. In addition to the 1990 emissions inventory, CARB also adopted regulations requiring mandatory reporting of GHGs for the large facilities that account for 94% of GHG emissions from industrial and commercial stationary sources in California. AB 32 requires CARB to develop a Scoping Plan, which lays out California s strategy for meeting the goals and which must be updated every 5 years. On December 11, 2008, CARB approved the initial Climate Change Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change (Scoping Plan) (CARB 2008) to achieve the goals of AB 32. The Scoping Plan establishes an overall framework for a suite of measures that will be adopted to sharply reduce California s GHG emissions. The Scoping Plan evaluates opportunities for sector-specific reductions, integrates all CARB and Climate Action Team early actions and additional GHG reduction measures by both entities, identifies additional measures to be pursued as regulations, and outlines the role of a cap-and-trade program. The key elements of the Scoping Plan include the following (CARB 2008): 1. Expanding and strengthening existing energy efficiency programs as well as building and appliance standards 2. Achieving a statewide renewable energy mix of 33% September

14 3. Developing a California cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system and caps sources contributing 85% of California s GHG emissions 4. Establishing targets for transportation-related GHG emissions for regions throughout California, and pursuing policies and incentives to achieve those targets 5. Adopting and implementing measures pursuant to existing state laws and policies, including California s clean car standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard 6. Creating targeted fees, including a public goods charge on water use, fees on high GWP gases, and a fee to fund the administrative costs of the State of California s long-term commitment to AB 32 implementation In May 2014, CARB approved the First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan (Scoping Plan Update; CARB 2014a), which builds on the initial Scoping Plan with new strategies and recommendations and identifies opportunities to leverage existing and new funds to further drive GHG emission reductions through strategic planning and targeted low carbon investments. Based on updated information, the Scoping Plan Update revises the 2020 emissions target to 431 MMT CO 2 E (based on updated GWPs for GHGs) (CARB 2014a). The Scoping Plan Update highlights California s progress toward meeting the near-term 2020 GHG emission reduction goals defined in the initial Scoping Plan, summarizes the latest climate change science, defines CARB s climate change priorities for the next 5 years, and provides direction on how to achieve the long-term emission reduction goal described in EO S-3-05 and B (see EO B-16-12). The Scoping Plan Update identified nine key focus areas, including energy, transportation, agriculture, water, waste management, and natural and working lands, along with short-lived climate pollutants, green buildings, and the cap-and-trade program. The update also recommends that a statewide mid-term target and mid-term and long-term sector targets be established toward meeting the 2050 goal established by EO S-3-05 (i.e., reduce California s GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels), although no specific recommendations are made. Senate Bill 107 SB 107 (Simitian) (September 2006) requires investor-owned utilities, such as Pacific Gas and Electric, Southern California Edison, and San Diego Gas & Electric, to generate 20% of their electricity from renewable sources by Previously, state law required that this target be achieved by 2017 (see SB 1078). September

15 Senate Bill 1368 SB 1368 (September 2006) requires the CEC to develop and adopt regulations for GHG emissions performance standards for the long-term procurement of electricity by local, publicly owned utilities. These standards must be consistent with the standards adopted by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC). This effort will help protect energy customers from financial risks associated with investments in carbon-intensive generation by allowing new capital investments in power plants that have GHG emissions that are as low or lower than new combined-cycle natural gas plants. This will be done by requiring imported electricity to meet GHG performance standards in California, and by requiring that the standards be developed and adopted in a public process. Executive Order S-1-07 EO S-1-07 (January 2007) sets a declining LCFS for GHG emissions measured in CO 2 E gram per unit of fuel energy sold in California. The target of the LCFS is to reduce the carbon intensity of California passenger vehicle fuels by at least 10% by The carbon intensity measures the amount of GHG emissions in the lifecycle of a fuel, including extraction/feedstock production, processing, transportation, and final consumption, per unit of energy delivered. CARB adopted the implementing regulation in April The regulation is expected to increase the production of biofuels, including those from alternative sources such as algae, wood, and agricultural waste. In addition, the LCFS would drive the availability of plug-in hybrid, battery electric, and fuel-cell power motor vehicles. The LCFS is anticipated to replace 20% of the fuel used in motor vehicles with alternative fuels by Senate Bill 97 SB 97 (Dutton) (August 2007) directs the Governor s Office of Planning and Research to develop guidelines under the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) for the mitigation of GHG emissions. The Office of Planning and Research was tasked to develop proposed guidelines by July 1, 2009, and the California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) directed to adopt guidelines by January 1, On June 19, 2008, the Governor s Office of Planning and Research issued a technical advisory as interim guidance regarding the analysis of GHG emissions in CEQA documents (OPR 2008). The advisory indicated that a project s GHG emissions, including those associated with vehicular traffic, energy consumption, water usage, and construction activities, should be identified and estimated. The advisory further recommended that the lead agency determine significance of the impacts and impose all mitigation measures that are necessary to reduce GHG emissions to a less-than-significant level. On April 13, 2009, the Governor s Office of Planning and Research submitted to the CNRA its proposed amendments to the state CEQA Guidelines relating to GHG emissions. On July 3, 2009, the CNRA commenced the Administrative Procedure Act rulemaking process for certifying and September

16 adopting the proposed amendments, starting the public comment period. The CNRA adopted CEQA Guidelines amendments on December 30, 2009, and transmitted them to the Office of Administrative Law on December 31, On February 16, 2010, the Office of Administrative Law completed its review and filed the amendments with the secretary of state. The amendments became effective on March 18, The amended guidelines establish several new CEQA requirements concerning the analysis of GHGs, including the following: Requiring a lead agency to make a good faith effort, based to the extent possible on scientific and factual data, to describe, calculate or estimate the amount of GHG emissions resulting from a project (Section (a)); Providing a lead agency with the discretion to determine whether to use quantitative or qualitative analysis or performance standards to determine the significance of GHG emissions resulting from a particular project (Section (a)); Requiring a lead agency to consider the following factors when assessing the significant impacts from GHG emissions on the environment; The extent to which the project may increase or reduce GHG emissions as compared to the existing environmental setting; Whether the project emissions exceed a threshold of significance that the lead agency determines applies to the project; The extent to which the project complies with regulations or requirements adopted to implement a statewide, regional, or local plan for the reduction or mitigation of GHG emissions (Section (b)); and Allowing lead agencies to consider feasible means of mitigating the significant effects of GHG emissions, including reductions in emissions through the implementation of project features or off-site measures, including offsets that are not otherwise required (Section (c)). The amended guidelines also establish two new guidance questions regarding GHG emissions in the Environmental Checklist set forth in CEQA Guidelines Appendix G (14 CCR et seq): Would the project generate GHG emissions, either directly or indirectly, that may have a significant impact on the environment? Would the project conflict with an applicable plan, policy, or regulation adopted for the purpose of reducing the emissions of GHGs? The adopted amendments do not establish a GHG emission threshold, and instead allow a lead agency to develop, adopt, and apply its own thresholds of significance or those developed by other September

17 agencies or experts. 3 The CNRA also acknowledges that a lead agency may consider compliance with regulations or requirements implementing AB 32 in determining the significance of a project s GHG emissions. 4 Senate Bill 375 SB 375 (Steinberg) (September 2008) addresses GHG emissions associated with the transportation sector through regional transportation and sustainability plans. Regional GHG reduction targets for the automobile and light-truck sector for 2020 and 2035, as determined by CARB, are required to consider the emission reductions associated with vehicle emission standards (see SB 1493), the composition of fuels (see EO S-1-07), and other CARB-approved measures to reduce GHG emissions. Regional metropolitan planning organizations will be responsible for preparing a Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS) within their Regional Transportation Plan (RTP). The goal of the SCS is to establish a development plan for the region, which, after considering transportation measures and policies, will achieve, if feasible, the GHG reduction targets. If an SCS is unable to achieve the GHG reduction target, a metropolitan planning organization must prepare an Alternative Planning Strategy demonstrating how the GHG reduction target would be achieved through alternative development patterns, infrastructure, or additional transportation measures or policies. SB 375 provides incentives for streamlining CEQA requirements by substantially reducing the requirements for transit priority projects, as specified in SB 375, and eliminating the analysis of the impacts of certain residential projects on global warming and the growth-inducing impacts of those projects when the projects are consistent with the SCS or Alternative Planning Strategy. On September 23, 2010, CARB adopted the SB 375 targets for the regional metropolitan planning organizations. The targets for the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) are an 8% reduction in emissions per capita by 2020 and a 13% reduction by Achieving these goals through adoption of a SCS will be the responsibility of the metropolitan planning organizations. SCAG prepared its Regional Transportation Plan (RTP)/Sustainable Communities Strategy (SCS), which was adopted by the SCAG Regional Council in April The plan quantified a 9% reduction by 2020 and a 16% reduction by The CEQA Guidelines do not establish thresholds of significance for other potential environmental impacts, and SB 97 did not authorize the development of a statement threshold as part of this CEQA Guidelines update. Rather, the proposed amendments recognize a lead agency s existing authority to develop, adopt and apply their own thresholds of significance or those developed by other agencies or experts (CNRA 2009c, p. 84). A project s compliance with regulations or requirements implementing AB 32 or other laws and policies is not irrelevant. Section (b)(3) would allow a lead agency to consider compliance with requirements and regulations in the determination of significance of a project s greenhouse gas emissions (CNRA 2009c, p. 100). September

18 Executive Order S EO Order S (November 2008) is intended to hasten California s response to the impacts of global climate change, particularly sea-level rise. It directs state agencies to take specified actions to assess and plan for such impacts. It directs the CNRA, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources, CEC, California s coastal management agencies, and the Ocean Protection Council, to request that the National Academy of Sciences prepare a Sea Level Rise Assessment Report by December 1, The Ocean Protection Council, California Department of Water Resources, and CEC, in cooperation with other state agencies, are required to conduct a public workshop to gather information relevant to the Sea Level Rise Assessment Report. The Business, Transportation, and Housing Agency was ordered to assess within 90 days of issuance of the EO the vulnerability of the state s transportation systems to sea-level rise. The Governor s Office of Planning and Research and the CNRA are required to provide land use planning guidance related to sea-level rise and other climate change impacts. The EO also required the other state agencies to develop adaptation strategies by June 9, 2009, to respond to the impacts of global climate change that are predicted to occur over the next 50 to 100 years. A discussion draft adaptation strategies report was released in August 2009, and the final 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy report was issued in December 2009 (CNRA 2009a). To assess the state s vulnerability, the report summarizes key climate change impacts to the state for the following areas: public health, ocean and coastal resources, water supply and flood protection, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity and habitat, and transportation and energy infrastructure. The report then recommends strategies and specific responsibilities related to water supply, planning and land use, public health, fire protection, and energy conservation. Executive Order S EO S (November 2008) focuses on the contribution of renewable energy sources to meet the electrical needs of California while reducing the GHG emissions from the electrical sector. This EO requires that all retail suppliers of electricity in California serve 33% of their load with renewable energy by Furthermore, the EO directs state agencies to take appropriate actions to facilitate reaching this target. The CNRA, through collaboration with the CEC and California Department of Fish and Wildlife (CDFW; formerly California Department of Fish and Game), is directed to lead this effort. Pursuant to a Memorandum of Understanding between the CEC and CDFW creating the Renewable Energy Action Team, these agencies will create a one-stop process for permitting renewable energy power plants. Executive Order S EO S (September 2009) directed CARB to adopt a regulation consistent with the goal of EO S by July 31, CARB is further directed to work with the CPUC and CEC to ensure that September