Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 2

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2 Introduction 36.4% poor live in rural area on < US$1/day. Agriculture is subsistence & about 70% of the population is involved Low soil productivity hence low yield Deforestation & Environmental Degradation is high (495,662 km 2 Affected). Climate change aggravates the issue Green Environment is threatened. How? Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 2

3 Resilience threatened Developed world Sub-Saharan Africa 20% CO 2 Trade-distorting subsidies Agricultural dumping Land Grab (NFC in MUST) Neglect Debt Overhang Low funding (R&D) Poor policy implementation Low literacy level

4 Methodology data was obtained from the Community-Based Forest Management Initiative of the Ondo State Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development in Data was obtained through random sampling technique Three Forest reserves were used. These are Idanre FR (Latitude & Longitude ); Oluwa FR (Latitude & Longitude ); and Oyinmo FR ( Latitude & Longitude ). Data from 452 respondents within the forests enclaves was analysed. Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 4

5 Methodology Cont d Analytical Technique Poverty Analysis was done using the Foster, Greer and Thorbecke (FGT). when P i i 1 n 0, 1, 2, q i1 z y 1 P0 n 1 P1 n 1 P2 n i1 q q i1 q i1 Z z y z y z y Z Z 1 Z 0 2 q n Poverty incidence or head Poverty gap or depth Poverty severity count Determinant of welfare was obtained through the conventional model of household economic behaviour under constrained utility maximization: y i /z i = 0 + β 1i X i + β 2i C i + ε i Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 5

6 Table 1: Per Capita Expenditure Distribution Decile Mean PCE Expenditure distribution (%) Total Mean 2 / 3 MPCE Results and Discussion Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 6 : Computed from CBFMS Field Survey Data (July - September, 2003).

7 Results and Discussion Table 2: Poverty by Gender Gender P 0 P 1 P 2 Male Female All Source: Computed from survey data analysis Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 7

8 Results and Discussion Table 3: Poverty by Forest Reserves Forest reserve P 0 P 1 P 2 Idanre Oluwa Oyinmo All Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 8 Source: Computed from survey data analysis

9 Results and Discussion Table 4: Determinants of rural poverty among Male headed Household Variable OLS Fixed Effects Coefficient t-value coefficient t-value Constant *** Age ** Household size * ** Marital Status * Primary Edu * Secondary Edu Tertiary Edu Farming ** Safe water Safe Toilet.3761* ** Idanre FR Oluwa FR -.254** Oyinmo FR Diagnostics R 2 =.245; Adj. R 2 =.2718 R 2 =.4021; Adj.= Source: Data analysis result *, **, and *** = Level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%

10 Results and Discussion Table 5: Determinants of rural poverty among female headed Household Variable OLS Fixed Effects Coefficient t-value coefficient t-value Constant 1.795*** Age *** Household size -.046** ** Marital Status -.223* ** Primary Edu *.362 Secondary Edu Tertiary Edu Farming -.308*** *** Safe water Safe Toilet.3761** Idanre FR.1223 * Oluwa FR Oyinmo FR.1311*** Diagnostics R 2 =. 2054; Adj. R 2 =.1826 R 2 =.4730; Adj.= Source: Data analysis result *, **, and *** = Level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%

11 Results and Discussion Table 6: Determinants of rural welfare among Idanre FR households Variable OLS Coefficient t-value Constant 2.341*** Age 312* Gender Household size -.152** Marital status -.604** Prim-education Sec education Ter-education Farming -.350*** Safe water.085*** Safe toilet Diagnostics R 2 = ; Adj.R 2 = Source: Data analysis result *, **, and *** = Level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%

12 Results and Discussion Table 7:Determinants of rural welfare among Oluwa FR households Variable OLS Coefficient t-value Constant 1.460** Age.122***.616 Gender Household size -.222** Marital status Prim-edu -.324* Sec edu Ter-educ Farming -.171*** Safe water Safe toilet Diagnostics R 2 = ; Adj.R 2 = ; 12 Source: Data analysis result *, **, and *** = Level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%

13 Results and Discussion Table 8: Determinants of rural welfare among Oyinmo FR households Variable OLS Coefficient t-value Constant 1.362*** Age.817* Gender.352*.144 Household size -.280** Marital status Prim-edu Sec edu Ter-educ Farming -.561*** Safe water.164*** Safe toilet Diagnostics R 2 = ; Adj.R 2 = Source: Data analysis result *, **, and *** = Level of significance at 10%, 5% and 1%

14 Indices Shannon- Weiner index Ose- Oba FA Ondo East FA Uso- Owo FA Results and Discussion Table 9: Biodiversity indices for natural forest in the study areas Idanre FR Oluwa FR Oyinmo FR Total (H') Evenness (E) No of species No of Families No of stem/ha Source: CBFMS Report, Note: FA means Natural forest area i.e free area outside of reserves. Forest reserve P 0 P 1 P 2 Idanre Oluwa Oyinmo All

15 Recommendation Country Level - Reducing deforestation in the area and Nigeria at large must incorporate social welfare programs for poverty reduction. - National agriculture must be redefined. Needs to change from eco-efficiency to sustainable consumption and production. - Agricultural policy must be inclusive in its formulation and implementation - investment in innovations that increase efficiency and decouple economic growth from the use of natural resources is necessary. - Carbon marketing- REDD should be explored. However, caution must be exercised. Why? 15

16 Recommendation Developed world Sub Saharan Africa 20% CO 2 Food production Trade dumping Land Grabbing Multilateral organisation (WB, WTO etc.) & international NGOs should assist and protect

17 Thank you Green Economy & Sustainable Development: Bringing back the social dimensions. UNRISD Conference, Geneva. 17