More Europeans, Tougher Carbon Targets. Final Report. Mengran Gao. Sponsored by Population Matters

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1 More Europeans, Tougher Carbon Targets Final Report Mengran Gao Sponsored by Population Matters Submitted to as dissertation for MSc Degree

2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This graduate student project was commissioned by Population Matters, a U K charity, campaigning for environmentally sustainable populations, nationally and globally. Population Matters does not vouch for every detail; but the report makes a strong prima facie case for more professional research The project aims to assess the impact of population growth on additional carbon emissions and on the EU s commitment to reduce them by 80% by 2050 compared with 1990 (base year) levels. The basic conclusion is, of course, that a larger population will make the target harder to achieve. The study makes projections on the additional carbon emissions produced by the extra population for 2050, and calculates the carbon emission abatement needed for the projected population range in order to meet the 2050 target 1. Two models were built calculating the additional carbon emissions from 2010 to 2050 and the emission abatement required for The first model assembled the top end, medium and bottom end of the EU-27 2 population projections from United Nations Population Division (UNPD) data, and the current level of per capita emissions. The amount of increased emissions was calculated and translated into the number of wind-turbine equivalents needed to abate them. The second model turned the target into the amount of abatement per capita. A comparison of abatements per capita between the top and bottom ends of the projected population range was made to show the impact of population growth on meeting the target. This part ended with calculating the number of additional wind-turbine equivalents needed for the larger population size. 1 The abatement refers to the difference between the 2050 target carbon emission and projected carbon emission for The abatements were calculated for both top end and bottom end population projections for Until 30 June 2013, there were 27 member states in European Union. This study was carried out based on data of the 27 countries. A full list of EU-27 member states is included in Glossary. 2

3 The projected population range for the EU-27 by 2050 is from 47 million fewer than present (low end) to 75 million more (high end). The additional population from 2011 to 2050 (high end) would produce billion more tonnes of carbon than at present. Around 362,454 thousand wind-turbine equivalents would be required to abate this and hold emissions constant. Analysis from the second part showed that if the population follows the high end growth rate, each person will need to abate 21% more emissions in 2050, with 2 tonnes per head per year, compared to the low end (2.5 tonnes) to reach the 80% reduction target. Recommendations It has been shown that population growth rates will have a strong influence on carbon emissions. It is recommended that EU-27 should aim for the low end population projection, combined with the use of renewables, which will make it substantially less difficult to achieve the 2050 commitment. 3

4 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION Objectives Background Population Matters The Problem Approach Adopted Structure of the Report PREVIOUS WORK APPROACH Assumptions Methodology Used Projection of Additional Carbon Emission Analysis of Total and Capita Abatement under EU 2050 Commitment DATA ANALYSIS Additional Carbon Emission Projection Population Summary Additional Carbon Emissions Produced by Population Growth Use of Wind-turbines EU Commitment by Overview of Current Situation and Target Commitment Abatement Comparison between Two Ends of Population Projections Use of Wind-turbines DATA USED CONCLUSIONS Conclusions and Recommendations Future Work GLOSSARY REFERENCES Appendix -Technical Explanations

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6 1. INTRODUCTION The introduction starts with the purpose of this study. Sections 1.2 includes the background of organization authorized the project and description of the problem. Adopted approaches are presented in section 1.3, followed by the structure of the report. 1.1 Objectives This project aims to assemble data on EU-27 projected population range for 2050 and conduct an analysis to assess the carbon implications of that range. The amount of necessary carbon 3 abatement from current level to achieve EU 2050 commitment was calculated. The capacity of renewable energy was studied to show how they help EU reduce carbon emission and further meet the 2050 commitment. 1.2 Background Population Matters This project is commissioned by Population Matters. Population Matters, formerly known as Optimum Population Trust (OPT), is registered as a United Kingdom charity concerned for a sustainable future. Population Matters supports a voluntary reduction in population over time to a level that enables an acceptable quality of life for all, protects wildlife and is ecologically sustainable. This is to be achieved through providing access to family planning services; educating and supporting to help people avoid unintended conceptions; encouraging individuals to make responsible decisions on family size; ending subsidies for larger family and discrimination against women; and equal access for women to education, 3 Carbon emissions in this report refer greenhouse gases emissions. The amounts are presented by converting amounts of the varied greenhouse gases to the equivalent amount of CO 2. 6

7 decision-making and resources (Population Matters, 2013) The Problem According to the projection of UNPD, the overall population of 27 EU member states will rise from 500 million to 516 million by the period of , and thereafter gradually decline to 512 million in 2050, while the projected population for top end and bottom end variant for 2050 are million and million separately 4 (UNPD, 2010). The top end of that range equates to 22 more cities the size of Berlin, while the bottom end is equivalent to 14 fewer Berlins. This enormous population difference would generate huge environmental costs. The following parts of this report will illustrate how population growth in the EU for the next 40 years will influence the amount of carbon emissions. The Kyoto Protocol is an international agreement which commits its Parties by setting internationally binding emission reduction targets (UNFCCC, 2013). The aim is to keep climate change below 2 C compared to the temperature in pre-industrial times. Under the Kyoto Protocol, EU-15 as a group committed to reducing their emission to 8% below 1990 levels by the years (EC, 2013). In February 2011, the European Council reconfirmed the EU objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-96% by 2050 compared to 1990 (UNFCCC, 2011). For the last 20 years from 1990 to 2010, countries belongs to EU and the EU commission have all introduced policies to control carbon emission and further make their way to reach the target in In this project, the target for EU-27 is specific to reducing the carbon emission by 80% by 2050 from 1990 level 5. According to European Environment Agency (EEA), the total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions excluding LULUCF 6 had been decreased by 15.4% in EU-27 and by 10.6% in EU-15 (EEA, 2010). This progress seemed to be in favour of achieving the commitment, however, the growing population of EU would 4 Data from UNFCCC gave population projections for three variants: medium, top end and bottom end variants. Definitions for the three variants are given in Glossary. 5 The target is equal to all EU-27 member states. Each country is required to reduce its carbon emission respectively by 80% compared to its emission in the base year of LULUCF refers to emissions/removals from land use, land-use change and forestry. 7

8 largely affect the emission amount and make the 2050 carbon target harder to meet. The results of this project will illustrate the additional emission amount by data analysis and turn the 2050 target into target per person based on population projection. The fast developing technologies make renewable energy sources a beneficial option for environmental sake. Wind energy is one of the world s fastest growing renewable energy type which helps reduce greenhouse gas emission effectively. The capacity of renewable energy in carbon emission abatement will be demonstrated in this report to show the number wind-turbines needed to abate carbon emission produced by population growth. 1.3 Approach Adopted This study consists of two parts: the first part gives the projected additional carbon emissions due to population growth of the 27 EU member states for 2050; the second part deducts required carbon emission abatement to achieve EU s 2050 target based on population projections. As the product of population and per capita emission, the total emission amount changes with either of the two factors. When fixing the value of per capita emission, annual additional carbon emission caused by population growth was calculated. One spreadsheet was built holding the data for each country and the total additional carbon emissions for cumulative years of overall EU-27 was the product of total additional population and emission per capita. Two groups of data were retrieved for this part: data from UNPD provides EU population summary from 2010 to 2050; and EEA provides the current carbon emission per capital 7. 7 The current refers to the year of Since the latest version of UNPD s population project was version 2010, figures for all related factors of 2010 are considered as the current level. The factors include population, carbon emission and carbon emission per capita. 8

9 The first part also explained the abatement capacity of renewable energy. Data from RenewableUK provided related variables for computing the carbon saving amount for one wind-turbine for its lifetime. Knowing the carbon abatement capacity, the number of wind-turbines needed to offset the next 40 years total additional carbon was obtained. Another spreadsheet was built for the second part. The required emission abatement from current emission level to reach the target emission in 2050 was first computed, following by the comparisons among base year, current year, projected 2050 emission and the target emission. The comparison revealed the extra abatement burdens caused by population growth for both overall EU-27 wide and individual people. 1.4 Structure of the Report This chapter gives an overview on the issue presented in this report and approaches used in solving the problem. The next chapter introduces previous work related to this project, followed by a more clear explanation of approaches adopted (chapter 3). Data analysis is shown in chapter 4, containing two parts: projecting extra carbon emissions caused by population growth; and population growth s influences on achieving EU 2050 commitment. The analysis on wind-turbine to abate additional carbon emission and support EU commitment are involved in chapter 4 as well. Chapter 5 gives details of data used in this project, followed by a conclusion, recommendation and future work (chapter 7). Glossary and references are listed after chapter 7. Appendices on terms of references, related calculations and tables of chapter 4 are included in this report as well. 9

10 2. PREVIOUS WORK This chapter briefly introduces previous studies on the correlation between population growth and greenhouse gas emission. As one of the solutions to reduce carbon emission, the efficiency of renewable energy is involved as well. Many previous studies have revealed population growth as a determinant of carbon emission. Bongaarts, J. (1992) suggested that future population growth is a key determinant of greenhouse gas emissions, and efforts to slow population growth in both the developed and developing world should be an essential element of a comprehensive policy to reduce global warming. Many other studies in 1990 shared the same concepts on the population growth s influence on carbon emissions and rapid planetary warming (SMIL, 1990; Dietz and Rosa, 1997). Anqing Shi (2003) found that the impact of population growth on emissions is more than proportional: a 1% additional population would lead to a 1.42% increase in CO 2 emissions on average. Emission increases in the developed world are now primarily driven by population growth. Countries with high population growth rates are more difficult to hold the standard by Kyoto Protocol because they must make larger reductions in their per capita emissions (Frederick and Meyerson, 1998). Statistics from Eurostat released in June 2011 showed that the EU-27 population is projected to peak at 526 million around 2040 and gradually decline to 517 million in The strongest population growth is to be found in Ireland (+46%), Luxembourg (+45%), Cyprus (+41%), the United Kingdom (+27%), Belgium (+24%) and Sweden (+23%), while the sharpest declines are in Bulgaria (-27%), Latvia (-26%), Lithuania 10

11 (-20%), Romania and Germany (both -19%) (Eurostat, 2011). Data from EEA shows that between 1990 and 2010, total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding LULUCF) decreased by 15.4% in the EU-27. The emission increased by 2.4% compared to 2009(EEA, 2012). With full implementation of current policies, the EU is on track to achieve a 20% reduction in 2020 and 30% in 2030 below 1990 levels (UNFCCC, 2011). The technical potential of renewable energy sources current meet only around 20% of the global energy demand, even though they have the technical potential to provide all global energy services in sustainable ways with low or virtually zero GHG emissions. Wind power has been developing in Europe for nearly twenty years, especially in Denmark, where the government aims to provide 40-50% of national electricity generation from wind power by 2030 (Ralph, Hans-Holger and Ken, 2003). 11

12 3. APPROACH This chapter explains how the study was conducted. Section 3.1 lists assumptions made during the project. And the steps of adopted approaches were explained in Assumptions Several assumptions are made in this study to simplify calculation. First of all, the current year in this study referred to This assumption was made to keep data from different sources consistent. Since the last population projection from UNPD was version 2010, the versions of all other data sources were chosen to comply with it. In the first part of calculation the additional carbon emission caused by population growth, the per capita emissions for all years from 2011 to 2050 remained the same as 2010 level for 9.4 tonnes. In order to show the effect of population growth, other possible influencing factor (per capita emission in this study) has to be constant. When calculating the capacity of wind-turbines, all wind-turbines were considered as generic, ignoring the possibility of broken down, natural factor and other individual differences. Also, the technology was assumed to be remained as current level, ignoring the technology development in the next four decades, which might increase the efficiency and lifetime of wind-turbines. There are some other assumptions made throughout the project. No judgement is made on European economic change, changes on people s lifestyle and the pricing level, or the policy changes on carbon emission. 12

13 3.2 Methodology Used Projection of Additional Carbon Emission Data from UNPD provided annual population projections for all 27 EU members from 2011 to 2050 and data of emissions per capita were obtained from EEA. Multiplying annual population projections and emissions per capita gave the annual emission projections 8, and the differences between the annual projections and those of previous years gave the additional emissions for each year. By adding up the amount of additional emissions from 2011 to 2050, the total additional carbon emissions were computed. The above steps were taken for each country separately, and the total additional emission for EU-27 was the summation of all countries 9. The calculation of a generic wind-turbine s capacity in CO 2 abatement per year was covered in part one as well. The capacity was the product of carbon saving figure, wind energy capacity, the average load factor and the number of hours of one year as described by RenewableUK. Then by multiplying the length of lifetime of each wind-turbine, the total CO 2 amount reduced by one turbine was obtained. Dividing the EU-wide total additional carbon emission by the wind-turbine capacity per year would produce the number of wind-turbines needed for EU to abatement carbon emission generated by population growth and to keep the current emission level constant. All the steps above were done for medium variant, top end variant and bottom end variant population projections from UNPD for comparison. 8 To find out the effect of population growth, the other factor that might affect the amount of carbon emission changes remains constant. So the per capita emissions for all years from 2011 to 2050 are considered to be the same as current level in To ensure the accuracy of results, the additional carbon emissions were calculated for each country separately rather than multiplying the total EU-27 population by EU-wide average per capita emission initially. Since the populations were different and varied differently with time, the per capita emission for EU-wide was not the average of all countries. Additionally, some of the populations would increase as shown in projection while others would decreasing, so the annual additional emissions might be either positive or negative for different countries. Adding them up directly would underestimate the amount of additional emission. 13

14 3.2.2 Analysis of Total and Capita Abatement under EU 2050 Commitment The calculation started with computing total target emission, per capita target emission, total required abatement and required per capita abatement for The target for EU members is to reduce the carbon emission by 80% of the base year level by Therefore, the target emission for 2050 will be 20 percent of the emission in the level year To translate the figures into per capita, the target emission and required abatement of 2050 were divided by the population projection in Summing up the required abatement and target emission of all 27 states gave the total figures for EU-27, and dividing the total figures by 2050 population projection gave the EU-wide average figures. Analysis for this part involved both top end and bottom population projections. The differences between them revealed the extra abatement burden caused by large population size, especially the burden on individual s abatement duty. The number of wind-turbines used to abate the total abatement difference produced by population projection range was found, based on the wind-turbine capacity worked out in the first part. The carbon emission abatements per capita for both ends of projections were multiplied by the corresponding number of population in And the difference between the two total abatements showed the influence of population growth. This figure was then translated into number of wind-turbines. 14

15 4. DATA ANALYSIS 4.1 Additional Carbon Emission Projection Population Summary Summing the projected population range of EU-27 member states from generated an overall projected EU population. The medium variant, top end variant and bottom end variant population projection are shown in Figure 1, and the separate projections for each member states are involved in appendix B. According to data from UNPD, the EU-27 population estimation for 2010 was 500 million, accounting for 6.8% of the world population. For 2050, the EU-27 populations will be million, million and million for medium variant, top end and bottom end projection, respectively. For the upcoming four decades, the population will be relative stable for medium variant projection. An increase will first last until 2033 when the population reaches 516 million. The figure will be decreasing and get to 512 million in Contrary to medium variant projection, the top and bottom end population show much clearer trends. Following the slowest growth rate, the population will shrink by around 50 million by 2050 while the figure will expand by about 75 million at the top end variant. Thus by the end of 2050, there will be approximately 125 million more people for top end projection than that for bottom end, which is almost a quarter of the current total EU-27 population, and also around a quarter of medium variant projection for

16 Figure 1 EU Projected Population from Additional Carbon Emissions Produced by Population Growth Table 1 Per capita carbon emission in 2010 Country or Region Carbon emission per capita (tonnes) Country or Region Carbon emission per capita (tonnes) Austria 10.1 Latvia 5.4 Belgium 12.2 Lithuania 6.3 Bulgaria 8.1 Luxembourg 24.1 Cyprus 13.5 Malta 7.3 Czech Republic 13.2 Netherlands 12.7 Denmark 11.0 Poland 10.5 Estonia 15.3 Portugal 6.6 Finland 13.9 Romania 5.7 France 8.1 Slovakia 8.5 Germany 11.4 Slovenia 9.5 Greece 10.5 Spain 7.7 Hungary 6.8 Sweden 7.1 Ireland 13.7 United Kingdom 9.5 Italy 8.3 EU 9.4 Summarizing data from EEA, the current per capita carbon emissions for 27 EU members states are listed in table 1. By adding up the 2010 total carbon emission for all EU member states, and dividing by the total population, the average per capita emission 16

17 for EU-wide was concluded. Based on this calculation, in 2010, the carbon emission per capita was 9.4 tonnes on average for EU-27 wide. As seen in table 1, per capita emission varied among countries. Fifteen countries of EU-27 had larger per capita figure than the average, where Luxembourgers produced the largest amount of carbon of 24.1 per person and the least per capita emission was in Latvia with the figure of 5.4 tonnes. The per capita emissions were assumed to be constant for following projections to highlight the impacts of population growth. Table 2 Projected CO2 emissions (top end variant) Annual projected population Average annual CO 2 emissions per capita (tonnes) Annual CO 2 emissions (million tonnes) 4, , , , , , , , Total Additional EU CO2 emissions (million tonnes) Additional annual CO 2 emissions comparing to 2010 (million tonnes) , Table 2 shows the total additional EU carbon emissions produced by population growth for top end population projection. The annual figures were grouped into five years periods and represented by 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045 and Multiplying the annual projected population by average annual carbon emission per capita obtained the total annual carbon emission. The five-year period average annual emissions for all 27 member states are shown in appendix B. Adding up 2011 to 2050 additional annual carbon emissions comparing to 2010 gave the total additional emissions. The additional annual CO 2 emission was computed separately for each country and the five-year period figures for 27 countries are in appendix B as well. The 17

18 EU-wide total additional carbon emission was the summation of all countries. According to the table, billion more carbon will be emitted due to additional million people, which is 3.2 times of the current EU carbon emission Use of Wind-turbines Next the number of wind-turbines to abate the additional tonnes of carbon was calculated. The values of all related parameters are shown in table 3. According to Renewable UK, annual CO 2 reduction for a standard wind-turbine was calculated by multiplying the installed wind energy capacity in megawatts, the average load factor, the number of hours in the year, the number of grammes of CO 2 saved per kilowatt hour divided by The details of calculation are shown in appendix B. Based on this calculation, a generic wind-turbine can abate 2,085 tonnes CO 2 per year, and a total number of 41,700 tonnes for its lifetime. Table 3 Figures of wind-turbine capacity Wind energy capacity per turbine (megawatts) Load factor as a fractional percentage of 1 Hours per year CO2 saved per kilowatt hour(g/kwh) CO2 reduction per turbine per year (tonnes) CO2 reduction per turbine for lifetime (tonnes) ,085 41,700 Based on previous study, billion tonnes of extra carbon will be emitted by 2050 compared to 2010 level. To abate such amount and hold emissions constant, EU would require additional renewable equivalent to 362,454 more wind-turbines. Table 4 Calculation of wind-turbines number CO2 reduction per wind-turbine Additional carbon emission by population growth (million tonnes) Number of renewables equivalent to wind-turbines 41,700 15, ,454 18

19 4.2 EU Commitment by Overview of Current Situation and Target Commitment. Table 5 Carbon emissions in 1990, 2010, 2050 target emissions and total emission changes from 1990 to present Country Carbon emission (million tonnes) 1990 (base year) 2010 (current) Changes from 1990 to present (in percentage) 2050 targets 20% of 1990 levels (million tonnes) Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany 1, Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU 5, , , Data for the base year defined by decisions 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4 (Bulgaria (1998), Hungary (average of ), Poland (1988), Romania (1989), Slovenia (1986)) are used for this Party instead of 1990 data. 11 Data for the base year of Cyprus was not available from UNFCCC. Data used here was from EEA. 19

20 This table gives an overview for what had be reached by EU and what needed to be achieve for the upcoming years. The data of base year were from UNFCCC. Table 5 shows the estimated carbon emission for 1990, 2010, projected emission for 2050 and the commitment target for According to European Commission, EU should reduce its carbon emission by 80% by 2050 compared to 1990 level. Therefore, the target EU-27 carbon emission for each country is 20% of the figure in the base year column. The EU-wide figures are the summation of all rows above. Data from the table showed that for EU-27 wide, the total emission had dropped from 5.8 billion tonnes to 4.7 billion tonnes till 2010, which produced a total abatement of 18.28% from In terms of individual countries, the difficulties in achieving the 80% reduction target varied. It is noticeable from the data that Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania and Romania have made achievements by reducing more than 50% for the last 20 years, while carbon emission in Cyprus in 2010 was more than twice of that in In order to reach the target on time, the total emission for EU-27 should be less than 1.2 billion tonnes for 2050, and an extra abatement of 76% of current emission amount will be required. Even though the 18.28% completed abatement seemed to be significant, in light of the abatement percentage needed for the following years, the situation faced by EU-27 is still grim. And for countries with increased carbon emission from 1990 to 2010, the situations are more severe Abatement Comparison between Two Ends of Population Projections The following part illustrates the differences of abatement resulted from the population projection range. The analysis includes per capita and total abatement separately. Table targets per capita (top end and bottom end variant population projection) 20

21 Target per capita (tonnes) Country Top end population projection Bottom end population projection Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU-27 average Table 6 shows targets per capita for both top end and bottom end population projections for The targets per capita were calculated by dividing the total target figures for each member states by the projected population in The target carbon emission per capita will be 2.0 tonnes if the population follows high growth rate, while the figure will be 2.5 tonnes if the population decreases as the bottom end projection. 21

22 Table 7 Required per capita abatements for top end and bottom end population projections Country Abatement per capita Top end population projection Bottom end population projection Per capita abatement difference between top and bottom end population Abatement difference / bottom end target Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU-27 average The suggested abatements per capita from now to 2050 in order to meet the target are shown in table 7. The required abatements were calculated by subtracting the per capita targets in 2050 from the projected per capita emission for The EU-27 per capita abatement will 6.9 tonnes for bottom end population projection and 7.4 tonnes for top 22

23 end population projection. Even though the number of 0.5 looks negligible, it is significant comparing to the total emission amount allowed for each person. With smaller population size, 25% more emission will be permitted for each person for Subtracting the target figures from current per capita emissions gives the per capita abatement. By 2050, when reaching the top end of population, each person from EU would need to reduce their personal emissions by an average of 21% (from 7.4 tonnes to 6.9 tonnes) more carbon than the scenario where population only reaches the bottom end. Table 8 compares the total abatement for EU-27 between top end population projection and bottom end population projection for The total abatement for each country is the product of per capita abatement and population projection. It can be seen from the table that, in order to meet the target, the abatement for top end population and bottom end population are 4, million tonnes and 3, million tonnes each. The abatement difference caused by population growth range is 1, million tonnes, which is almost the same value as the target emission (1, million tonnes) for that year. Both the per capita and total abatement amount revealed the severe situation for EU-27 caused by population growth. The following part shows how renewable energy could be applied to offset the abatement difference. Table 8 Total carbon abatement (top end and bottom end variant population projection) Country Total abatement for 2050 to meet the target 23 Total abatement difference between top and

24 (million tonnes) bottom end population Top end population Bottom end population Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom UK 4, , , Use of Wind-turbines According to previous calculation, the CO 2 reduction capacity for one wind-turbine per year is 2,085 tonnes. If the population reaches the top end, in order to meet the target for 2050, 2,046,193 wind-turbines are required to operate for this year, or 102,310 24

25 wind-turbines for their lifetime. On the other hand, the abatement for the bottom end population would require 1,491,561 wind-turbines in 2050, or 74,578 for 20 years. In general, 27,732 wind-turbines are needed to operate for 20 years in order to abate the extra carbon emission produced by additional population between top end and bottom end population projection. 25

26 5. DATA USED In this project, many sources were used to collect data relevant to the study. Since different institutions and organizations updated their data with different time period, one important rule for this project was to keep data from different sources time-consistent. For example, the current data in this project all referred to data in 2010, which included the current population summary, current carbon emission per capita and current total carbon emission. Data in regard to population summary were collected from World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision UNPD, including the population estimation in 2010, projected population from 2011 to Even though there are estimated population statistics on 2011 and 2012, to comply with for time-consistence rule, data on these two years were still from the projections in 2010 Revision. The projection contains all medium variant, top end variant and bottom end variant population for all 27 EU members. Another important data to this study is the current per capita carbon emissions, which was extracted from GHG Trends and Projections from EEA. This data gave the CO2 equivalent of GHG emission per capita in 2010 for all 27 members separately. This data were used for the calculation of total carbon emission in 2010 and the emission estimation from 2011 to Also, the emission abatement required per capita was based on this data. Data from UNFCCC provided sources for total carbon emission in the base year of For each country, the total aggregate anthropogenic emissions of GHG excluding LULUCF in 1990 were given. One inadequacy of data from UNFCCC is the lack of data on Cyprus. To supply it, data on Cyprus was from EEA. Data on total carbon emission in 1990 were used as the base year in the commitment, where the target in 26

27 2050 is 20% of the figure. Information of wind-turbine capacity was drawn from RenewableUK. The installed wind energy capacity per wind-turbine, load factor, grammes of CO2 saved per kilowatt hour and lifetime of each wind-turbine were all from RenewableUK. The wind-turbine used for calculation here was referred to generic wind-turbine by RenewableUK, with the wind energy capacity of 2MW and an average lifetime of 20 years. 27

28 6. CONCLUSIONS 6.1 Conclusions and Recommendations This study estimated the impact of population growth on carbon emissions in EU-27 and its impact on EU s commitment to reduce carbon emission by 80% by The study proved that a high population growth in EU-27 would lead to an enormous amount of extra carbon emission by If the population reaches the top end population projection, there will be million more for 2050 than the current population. Following the high growth at current consumption levels per person, the extra people living in the EU between 2011 and 2050 will produce billion tonnes of carbon over this period. This figure is roughly 3.2 times the current yearly emissions. When the population remains stable or follows a low growth rate, the total additional carbon emissions will be much smaller. A medium population growth will produce 7.5 billion more tonnes of CO 2 and the figure would be only 2.8 billion tonnes for bottom end projection, which is 60% of current yearly emissions and only 24% of the figure for the top end population projection. Total additional emissions can be effectively abated by applying renewable energy. The study found that to hold emissions constant at the current level, 363,675 more wind-turbines are required to operate for 20 years to abate the emissions produced by high population growth. The figure only concerns the projected emissions, though the construction of such a number of turbines would in turn produce more embodied CO 2 ; so in reality, the number of required wind-turbines could be bigger. Population growth makes the carbon reduction target much tougher for both countries or EU-wide, and for individuals. 19% of the EU carbon reduction commitment has been 28

29 achieved in the past 20 years. In order to meet the target, 76% of the current emissions still need to be reduced by The target carbon abatement would be 6.9 tonnes per year for each person in EU-27 for a reducing population. However, a growing population would magnify the necessary abatement by 21% to 7.4 tonnes per capita on average. The total abatement difference caused by population range is 1.2 billion tonnes. 27 thousand more wind-turbines will be needed to abate such an amount to meet the EU s 2050 target. Based on the study, it is proposed that the EU should aim for at least a stable, and preferably a reducing population in order to increase the per capita carbon allowance and reduce each individual s personal energy sacrifice while meeting the target. A combination of renewable energy and population policy is recommended as the most effective method for reducing emissions. 6.2 Future Work This study mainly aims to verify population growth s impact on carbon emission, renewable energy was considered as the solution to abate emission and help EU achieve the 2050 target. Future work related to this topic can be divided into two parts as well. Population control is one of the methods to reduce carbon emissions, and the result from analysis showed that even with low population growth rate, achieving the target is still a severe task as shown in this study. However, the emission projections were made purely based on population growth, the effects of many other carbon reduction policies were ignored. Moreover, the positive influences of some policies would expand with time, so the growth rate of carbon emission could probably drop for the next decade compared to the past. Therefore, it is highly likely that the task would not be as difficult as shown in this project. To demonstrate a more accurate roadmap for achieving the 29

30 target and providing a better direction for EU, analysis on other policies should be done in the future, together with the study on population. Additionally, expenditure analysis on constructing wind-turbines should be worked out. This study provided the number of wind-turbine equivalents needed for carbon emission abatement while the expenses of renewable energy were not included. Even though wind-turbines are environmental-friendly, the cost of building and maintaining them is huge. Future work on finding out the optimal number of wind-turbines to balance economic and environmental issues would be valuable. The work can also be expanded into other renewable energies or other carbon abatement policies. 30

31 7. GLOSSARY Definitions related to this report are provided in terms of technical abbreviations and phrases. Billion 10 9 Bottom end variant projection Population projection with lowest growth rate CO 2 Carbon Dioxide CO2 tonnes Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide GHG Greenhouse gas LULUCF Emissions/removals from land use, land-use change and forestry (UNFCCC) Medium variant projection The middle of range of projected populations Million 10 6 Population growth rate Population growth rate measures how populations change in size over a certain time period. The annul population growth rate is the exponential rate of growth of midyear population from the previous year to the current year, expressed as a percentage (The Encyclopedia of Earth) Renewable energy Natural energy that does not have a limited supply. Renewable energy can be used again and again, and will never run out (Clean energy ideas). Renewables The resources generate renewable energy, such as solar, wind, rain, tides and wave. Top end variant projection Population projection with highest growth rate Wind turbine A device turns wind energy into mechanical energy. Wind turbines in this report refer to generic 2MW wind turbine (RenewableUK). MW Megawatts 31

32 8. REFERENCES Population Matters (2010) Available at: 1 September 2013). United Nations Population Division (2010) World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Available at: (Accessed: 10 June 2013). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2013) Kyoto Protocol. Available at: (Accessed: 1 September 2013). European Commission (EC) Climate Action (2013) What is the EU doing about climate change? Available at: (Accessed: 1 September 2013). United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2011) Compilation of economy-wide emission reduction targets to be implemented by Parties included in Annex I to the Convention. Available from 1&cx= %3Agjvsnghto1u&ie=UTF-8&sa= (Accessed: 23 July 2013). Bongaarts, J, (1992) Population Growth and Global Warming, Population and Development Review, 18(2), pp SMIL, V, (1990) Planetary Warming: Realities and Responses. Population and Development Review, 16, pp Dietz, T. and Rosa, E.A, (1997) Effects of population and affluence on CO2 32

33 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 94(1), pp Anqing, S (2003) The impact of population pressure on global carbon emissions, : evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecological Economics, 44(1), pp Frederick, A.B and Meyerson (1998) Population, Carbon Emissions, and Global Warming: The Forgotten Relationship at Kyoto. Population and Development Review, 24(1), pp Eurostat (2011) Population projection EU27 population is expected to peak by around One person in eight aged 80 or more in Available at: (Accessed: 18 July 2013). European Environment Agency (EEA) (2010) Greenhouse gas emission trends (CSI 010). 27, Available at: reenhouse-gas-emission-trends-assessment-4 (Accessed: 27 August 2013). Ralph, E.H. S., Hans-Holger, R and Ken, G, (2003) Carbon emission and mitigation cost comparison between fossil fuel, nuclear and renewable energy resources for electricity generation. Energy Policy, 31, pp European Environment Agency (EEA) (2010) Greenhouse gas emission trends and projections in European 2012 Tracking progress towards Kyoto and 2020 targets (2010). Available at: (Accessed: 4 June, 2013). 33

34 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (2012) National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period Available at: unfccc.int/resource/docs/2012/sbi/eng/31.pdf (Accessed: 4 June 2013). The Encyclopedia of Earth (2013). Available at: (Accessed: 4 September 2013). Clean Energy Ideas (2013). Available at: ition (Accessed: 4 September 2013) 34

35 Appendix - Technical Explanations Population Summary Table B.1 Population estimation in 2010 and projection for 2050 Population Population projection for 2050 (millions) Country Estimation in 2010 (millions) Medium variant Top end variant Bottom end variant Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU Table B.1 shows the population estimations in 2010 and projections for 27 EU member states for The table includes all medium variant, top end variant and bottom end 35

36 projections. The data are provided by UNPD. Table B.2 shows the top end population projection for EU-27 member states for every ten years. This table provides the source for calculation of additional population and additional carbon emission in chapter Table B.2 Five-year period population projection for EU-27 member states from 2011 to 2050 Country Top end population projection (million) Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom EU

37 Calculating EU-27 overall per capita carbon emission in 2010 Considering the population differs among different member states, the average total per capita carbon emission is not the average of all per capita figures of 27 countries. The per capita figure is calculated by adding up all member states total emission in million tonnes in 2010, and then divided by the total EU-27 population in million. Therefore, the per capita emission is: EU - 27 totalcarbon emission EU - 27 carbon emission per capita EU - 27 totalpopulation EU - 27 totalcarbon emission P 1 * T1 P2 * T2 P3 * T3... P27 * T 27 EU - 27 totalpopulation P 1 P2 P3... P27 Where P i is the population of country i in million and T i is the total carbon emission in million tonnes of country i. Given the population and per capita carbon emission figures for each in Table 1, the EU-27 per capita carbon emission is: 8.39* * * * tonnes / capita Projected CO2 emissions Table B.3 and table B.4 show the annual carbon emission and additional annual carbon emission with top end population projection for all 27 EU member states from 2011 to These two tables provide support to EU-27 overall additional carbon emission in Chapter 4.2. The annual figures in the two tables below refer to the average of the five-year period. 37

38 Table B.3 Annual CO 2 emission from 2011 to 2050 Country Annual CO 2 emissions (million tonnes) Austria Belgium Bulgaria Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Iceland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom