4.6 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

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1 4.6 GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS INTRODUCTION This section evaluates potential impacts of the Project related to greenhouse gas ( GHG ) emissions. GHGs are emitted by both natural processes and human activities. The accumulation of GHGs in the atmosphere regulates Earth s temperature. The State of California has undertaken initiatives designed to address the effects of GHGs, and to establish targets and emission reduction strategies for GHG emissions in California. The GHG data supporting this section is included as Appendix to this Draft EIR. There are several unique challenges to analyzing GHG emissions and climate change under CEQA, largely because of the global nature of climate change. Typical CEQA analyses address local actions that have local or regional impacts, whereas climate change presents the considerable challenge of analyzing the relationship between local activities and the resulting potential, if any, for global environmental impacts. Most environmental analyses examine the project-specific impacts that a particular project is likely to generate. With regard to global climate change, however, it is generally accepted that while the magnitude of global warming effects is substantial, the contribution of an individual general development project is so small that direct project-specific significant impacts are highly unlikely. Global climate change is also fundamentally different from other types of air quality impact analyses under CEQA in which impacts are all measured within, and are linked to, a discrete region or area. Instead, a global climate change analysis must be considered on a global level, rather than the typical local or regional setting, and requires consideration of emissions from the project under consideration, and the extent of the displacement, translocation, and redistribution of emissions. In the usual context, where air quality is linked to a particular location or area, it is appropriate to consider the creation of new emissions in that specific area to be an environmental impact whether or not the emissions are truly new emissions to the overall globe. When the impact is a global one, however, it makes more sense to consider whether the emissions really are new emissions, or are merely being moved from one place to another. For example, approval of a new developmental plan or project does not necessarily create new automobile drivers - the primary source of a land use project s emissions. Rather, due to the relocation factor, new land use projects often merely redistribute existing mobile emissions; 1 accordingly, the use of models that measure overall emissions increases without accounting for existing emissions will substantially overstate the impact of the development project on global warming. This makes an accurate analysis of GHG emissions substantially different from other air pollutant emissions analysis, where the addition of redistributed emissions to a new locale can make a substantial difference to overall air quality. 1 For example, a new subdivision of 500 homes generates 5,000 new trips per day and those trips would be added to the local streets and intersections. Trips associated with those homes presumably would emit roughly the same volume of GHGs in the City as they would if they were traveling the same number of miles in Cleveland, Ohio. While raw vehicle trip counts accurately predict changes in congestion at intersections, the same certainty cannot be provided for climate change. The trips would certainly increase the number of vehicles passing through local intersections, but they would not increase the amount of GHG emissions into the world s atmosphere if those trips simply have been relocated from another location on the planet. County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

2 ENVIRONMENTAL SETTING Global Climate Change Earth s natural warming process is known as the greenhouse effect. Certain atmospheric gases act as an insulating blanket for solar energy to keep the global average temperature in a suitable range for life support. The greenhouse effect raises the temperature of Earth s surface by about 60 degrees Fahrenheit. With the natural greenhouse effect, the average temperature of Earth is about 45 degrees Fahrenheit; without it, Earth would be about minus 15 degrees. It is normal for Earth s temperature to fluctuate over extended periods of time. Over the past one hundred years, Earth s average global temperature has generally increased by one degree Fahrenheit. In some regions of the world, the increase has been as much as four degrees Fahrenheit. Scientists studying the particularly rapid rise in global temperatures during the late twentieth century believe that natural variability alone does not account for that rise. Rather, human activity spawned by the industrial revolution has likely resulted in increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other forms of GHGs, primarily from the burning of fossil fuels (i.e., during motorized transport, electricity generation, consumption of natural gas, industrial activity, manufacturing, etc.) and deforestation, as well as agricultural activity and the decomposition of solid waste. 2 GHG Components and Effects The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (discussed in the following pages) defined GHGs to include carbon dioxide (CO 2), methane (CH 4), nitrous oxide (N 2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6), and nitrogen trifluoride. A general description of each GHG discussed in this report is provided in Table (Description of Identified Greenhouse Gases). CO 2 is the most abundant GHG. Other GHGs are less abundant, but have higher global warming potential (discussed below) than CO 2. Thus, emissions of other GHGs are frequently expressed in the equivalent mass of CO 2, denoted as CO 2e. Forest fires, decomposition, industrial processes, landfills, and consumption of fossil fuels for power generation, transportation, heating, and cooking are the primary sources of GHG emissions. Global Warming Potential Global Warming Potential ( GWP ) is one type of simplified index based upon radiative properties that is used to estimate the potential future impacts of emissions of different gases upon the climate system in a relative sense. GWP is based on a number of factors, including the radiative efficiency (heat-absorbing ability) of each gas relative to that of CO 2, as well as the decay rate of each gas (the amount removed from the atmosphere over a given number of years) relative to that of CO 2. A summary of the atmospheric lifetime and GWP of selected gases is presented at Table (Atmospheric Lifetimes and Global Warming Potentials). 2 Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change, published by the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States. County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

3 GHG CO2 CH4 N2O HFCs PFCs SF6 Table Description of Identified Greenhouse Gases General Description CO2 is an odorless, colorless GHG, which has both natural and man-made sources. Natural sources include the following: decomposition of dead organic matter; respiration of bacteria, plants, animals, and fungus; evaporation from oceans; and volcanic outgassing; man made sources of CO2 are burning coal, oil, natural gas, and wood. CH4 is a flammable gas and is the main component of natural gas. When one molecule of CH4 is burned in the presence of oxygen, one molecule of CO2 and two molecules of water are released. There are no ill health effects from CH4. A natural source of CH4 is the anaerobic decay of organic matter. Geological deposits, known as natural gas fields, also contain CH4, which is extracted for fuel. Other sources are from landfills, fermentation of manure, and cattle. N2O is a colorless GHG. High concentrations can cause dizziness, euphoria, and sometimes slight hallucinations. N2O is produced by microbial processes in soil and water, including those reactions which occur in fertilizer containing nitrogen. In addition to agricultural sources, some industrial processes (fossil fuel-fired power plants, nylon production, nitric acid production, and vehicle emissions) also contribute to its atmospheric load. It is used in rocket engines, race cars, and as an aerosol spray propellant. HFCs are synthetic man-made chemicals that are used as a substitute for chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) for automobile air conditioners and refrigerants. CFCs are gases formed synthetically by replacing all hydrogen atoms in methane or ethane with chlorine and/or fluorine atoms. CFCs are nontoxic, nonflammable, insoluble, and chemically unreactive in the troposphere (the level of air at Earth s surface). CFCs were first synthesized in 1928 for use as refrigerants, aerosol propellants, and cleaning solvents. Because they destroy stratospheric ozone, the production of CFCs was stopped as required by the Montreal Protocol in PFCs have stable molecular structures and do not break down through the chemical processes in the lower atmosphere. High-energy ultraviolet rays about 60 kilometers above Earth s surface are able to destroy the compounds. PFCs have very long lifetimes, between 10,000 and 50,000 years. Two common PFCs are tetrafluoromethane and hexafluoroethane. The two main sources of PFCs are primary aluminum production and semiconductor manufacture. SF6 is an inorganic, odorless, colorless, non-toxic, and nonflammable gas. SF6 is used for insulation in electric power transmission and distribution equipment, in the magnesium industry, in semiconductor manufacturing, and as a tracer gas for leak detection. Source: Association of Environment Professionals, Alternative Approaches to Analyze Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Global Climate Change in CEQA Documents, Final, June 29, Table Atmospheric Lifetimes and Global Warming Potentials Lifetime Global Warming Potential Global Warming Potential (Years) (20-Year) (100-Year) GHG Carbon Dioxide Nitrous Oxide Nitrogen Triflouride ,800 16,100 Sulfur Hexaflouride 3,200 17,500 23,500 Perflourocarbons 3,000-50,000 5,000-8,000 7,000-11,000 Black Carbon days to weeks 270-6, ,700 Methane Hydroflourocarbons Uncertain , ,000 Note: Global Warming Potential is a relative measure of how much heat a greenhouse gas traps in the atmosphere, as compared to carbon dioxide. Source: CARB, First Update to the Climate Change Scoping Plan, May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

4 Impacts of Global Climate Change in California The California Environmental Protection Agency ( CalEPA ) published a report titled Scenarios of Climate Change in California: An Overview ( Climate Scenarios report ) in February 2006 that, while not adequate for a CEQA project-specific or cumulative analysis, is generally instructive about the future impacts of global warming on California. In addition, on December 2, 2009, the California Natural Resources Agency released its California Climate Adaptation Strategy report that details many vulnerabilities arising from climate change with respect to matters such as temperature extremes, sea level rise, wildfires, floods and droughts and precipitation changes. This report responds to the Governor s Executive Order S that called on State agencies to develop California s strategy to identify and prepare for expected climate impacts. According to these reports, substantial temperature increases arising from increased GHG emissions potentially could result in a variety of impacts to the people, economy, and environment of California. This includes an associated projected increase in extreme conditions, with the severity of the impacts depending upon actual future emissions of GHGs and associated warming. Under the emissions scenarios of the Climate Scenarios report, the impacts of global climate change in California have the potential to include, but are not limited to, the areas of public health, water resources, agriculture, forests and landscapes, and rising sea levels. Regulatory Framework Climate change and GHG emissions are governed by an evolving body of laws, regulations, and case law. Below are summaries of some of the key regulations; however, the discussion below should not be considered exhaustive of this growing body of regulation. Federal Clean Air Act The U.S. Supreme Court has held that the United States Environmental Protection Agency ( U.S. EPA ) is authorized by the Clean Air Act to regulate CO 2 emissions from new motor vehicles. 3 The Court did not mandate that the U.S. EPA enact regulations to reduce GHG emissions, but found that the only instances in which the U.S. EPA could avoid taking action were if it found that GHGs do not contribute to climate change or if it offered a reasonable explanation for not determining that GHGs contribute to climate change. On December 7, 2009, the U.S. EPA issued an endangerment finding under the Clean Air Act, concluding that GHGs threaten the public health and welfare of current and future generations and that motor vehicles contribute to GHG pollution. 4 These findings provide the basis for adopting new national 3 Massachusetts, et al. v. Environmental Protection Agency (2007), website: accessed: May United States Environmental Protection Agency, Endangerment, and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

5 regulations to mandate GHG emission reductions under the federal Clean Air Act. The EPA s endangerment finding paves the way for federal regulation of GHGs. Under the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2008 (HR 2764), Congress established mandatory GHG reporting requirements for some emitters of GHGs. In addition, on September 22, 2009, the EPA issued the Final Mandatory Reporting of Greenhouse Gases Rule. The rule requires annual reporting to the U.S. EPA of GHG emissions from large sources and suppliers of GHGs, including facilities that emit 25,000 metric tons (MT) or more a year of GHGs. Federal Vehicle Standards An Executive Order was issued on May 14, 2007, directing the U.S. EPA, the Department of Transportation, and the Department of Energy to establish regulations that would reduce GHG emissions from motor vehicles, non-road vehicles, and non-road engines by On October 10, 2008, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration ( NHTSA ) released a final environmental impact statement analyzing proposed interim standards for passenger cars and light trucks in model years 2011 through The NHTSA issued a final rule for model year 2011 on March 30, On May 7, 2010, the U.S. EPA and the NHTSA issued a final rule regulating fuel efficiency and GHG pollution from motor vehicles for cars and light-duty trucks for model years On May 21, 2010, the Secretaries of Transportation and Energy, and the Administrators of the U.S. EPA and the NHTSA, were directed to establish additional standards regarding fuel efficiency and GHG reduction, clean fuels, and advanced vehicle infrastructure. 7 In response to this directive, U.S. EPA and NHTSA issued a Supplemental Notice of Intent announcing plans to propose stringent, coordinated federal GHG and fuel economy standards for model year light-duty vehicles. 8 The agencies proposed standards projected to achieve 163 grams/mile of CO 2 in model year 2025, on an average industry fleet wide basis, which is equivalent to 54.5 miles per gallon if this level were achieved solely through fuel efficiency. California supported this national program. 9 The final rule was adopted in October 2012 and NHSTA intends to set 5 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Laws & Regulations, CARE - Fuel Economy, Average Fuel Economy Standards Passenger Cars and Light Trucks Model Year 2011, Final Rule, March 23, 2009, website: 1.pdf, accessed: May United States Environmental Protection Agency, Light Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Final Rule, May 7, 2010, website: accessed: May Government Printing Office, Federal Register, Vol. 75, No. 101, Presidential Documents, Improving Energy Security, American Competitiveness and Job Creation, and Environmental Protection Through a Transformation of Our Nation's Fleet of Cars and Trucks, May 21, 2010, website: 26/html/ htm, accessed: May Government Printing Office, Federal Register, Vol. 76, No. 153, Proposed Rules, Model Year Light- Duty Vehicle GHG Emissions and CAFÉ Standards: Supplemental Notice of Intent, August 9, 2011, website: accessed: May California Air Resource Board, Commitment Letter to National Program, July 28, 2011, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

6 10, 11 standards for model years in future rulemaking. Heavy-Duty Engines and Vehicles Fuel Efficiency Standards In addition to the regulations applicable to cars and light-duty trucks, on August 9, 2011, the U.S. EPA and the NHTSA announced fuel economy and GHG standards for medium- and heavy-duty trucks, which apply to vehicles from model years 2014 through The U.S. EPA and the NHTSA adopted standards for CO 2 emissions and fuel consumption, respectively, tailored to each of three main vehicle categories: (1) combination tractors, (2) heavy-duty pickup trucks and vans, and (3) vocational vehicles. According to the U.S. EPA, this program will reduce GHG emissions and fuel consumption for affected vehicles by 6 percent to 23 percent. Energy Independence and Security Act On December 19, 2007, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 ( EISA ) was signed into law. 13 Among other key measures, the EISA would do the following, which would aid in the reduction of national GHG emissions, both mobile and non-mobile: 1. Increase the supply of alternative fuel sources by setting a mandatory Renewable Fuel Standard requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel in Prescribe or revise standards affecting regional efficiency for heating and cooling products, procedures for new or amended standards, energy conservation, energy efficiency labelling for consumer electronic products, residential boiler efficiency, electric motor efficiency, and home appliances. 3. While superseded by NHTSA and U.S. EPA actions described above, EISA also set miles per gallon targets for cars and light trucks and directed the NHTSA to establish a fuel economy program for medium- and heavy-duty trucks and create a separate fuel economy standard for work trucks. Additional provisions of the EISA address energy savings in government and public institutions, promoting research for alternative energy, additional research in carbon capture, international energy programs, and the creation of green jobs. 10 National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 199, Rules & Regulations, 2017 and Later Model Year Light-Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, effective December 14, 2012, website: accessed: May National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards, Passenger Cars and Light Trucks, Model Years , Final Environmental Impact Statement, July 2012, website: Accessed: May United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Transportation and Air Quality. EPA and NHTSA Adopt First-Ever Program to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Improve Fuel Efficiency of Medium-and Heavy-Duty Vehicles, August 2011, website: accessed: May Government Printing Office, Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, January 4, 2007, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

7 State Executive Order S-3-05 Executive Order S-3-05, issued in June 2005, established GHG emissions targets for the State, as well as a process to ensure the targets are met. The order directed the Secretary of CalEPA to report every two years on the State s progress toward meeting the Governor s GHG emission reduction targets. As a result of this executive order, the California Climate Action Team, led by the Secretary of CalEPA, was formed. The California Climate Action Team is made up of representatives from a number of State agencies and was formed to implement global warming emission reduction programs and reporting on the progress made toward meeting statewide targets established under the Executive Order. The California Climate Action Team reported several recommendations and strategies for reducing GHG emissions and reaching the targets established in the Executive Order. 14 The statewide GHG targets are as follows: By 2010, reduce to 2000 emission levels; By 2020, reduce to 1990 emission levels; and By 2050, reduce to 80 percent below 1990 levels. However, with the adoption of the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (also known as AB 32), discussed below, the Legislature did not adopt the 2050 horizon-year goal from Executive Order No. S In the last legislative session, the Legislature rejected legislation to enact the Executive Order s 2050 goal. 15 The California Climate Action Team stated that smart land use is an umbrella term for strategies that integrate transportation and land-use decisions. Such strategies generally encourage jobs/housing proximity, promote transit-oriented development, and encourage high-density residential/commercial development along transit corridors. These strategies develop more efficient land-use patterns within each jurisdiction or region to match population increases, workforce, and socioeconomic needs for the full spectrum of the population. Intelligent transportation systems is the application of advanced technology systems and management strategies to improve operational efficiency of transportation systems and the movement of people, goods, and service California Climate Action Team, Climate Action Team Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature, March The original version of SB 32 as introduced in the Legislature contained a commitment to the 2050 goal, but this commitment was not included in the final version of the bill. See: 150SB3299INT. In addition, the Supreme Court recently held in Cleveland National Forest Foundation et al. v San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) ()(S223603, July 13, 2017) that SANDAG did not abuse its discretion in declining to adopt the 2050 goal as a measure of significance in an analysis of the consistency of projected 2050 greenhouse gas emissions with the goals in Executive Order S California Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Action Team Report to Governor Schwarzenegger and the Legislature, March 2006, page 58. County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

8 Assembly Bill 32 (Statewide GHG Reductions) The California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 ( AB 32 ) was signed into law in September 2006 after considerable study and expert testimony before the Legislature. The law instructs the California Air Resources Board ( CARB ) to develop and enforce regulations for the reporting and verifying of statewide GHG emissions. AB 32 directed CARB to set a GHG emission limit based on 1990 levels, to be achieved by AB 32 set a timeline for adopting a scoping plan for achieving GHG reductions in a technologically and economically feasible manner. 17 The heart of AB 32 is the requirement to reduce statewide GHG emissions to 1990 levels by AB 32 required CARB to adopt rules and regulations in an open public process to achieve the maximum technologically feasible and cost-effective GHG reductions. CARB accomplished the key milestones set forth in AB 32, including the following: June 30, Identification of discrete early action GHG emissions reduction measures. On June 21, 2007, CARB satisfied this requirement by approving three early action measures. 18 These were later supplemented by adding six other discrete early action measures. 19 January 1, Identification of the 1990 baseline GHG emissions level and approval of a statewide limit equivalent to that level and adoption of reporting and verification requirements concerning GHG emissions. On December 6, 2007, CARB approved a statewide limit on GHG emissions levels for the year 2020 consistent with the determined 1990 baseline. 20 January 1, Adoption of a scoping plan for achieving GHG emission reductions. On December 11, 2008, CARB adopted Climate Change Scoping Plan: A Framework for Change ( Scoping Plan ), discussed in more detail below Legislative Counsel of California, California Assembly Bill 32, September 2006, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Summary of Board Meeting, Consideration of Recommendations for Discrete Early Actions for Climate Change Mitigation in California, June 21-22, 2007, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Summary of Board Meeting, Public Meeting to Consider Approval of Additions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 and to Discuss Concepts for Promoting and Recognizing Voluntary Early Actions, October 25-26, 2007, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Staff Report, California 1990 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Level and 2020 Emissions Limit, November 16, 2007, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan, December 2008, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

9 January 1, Adoption and enforcement of regulations to implement the discrete actions. 22, 23 Several early action measures have been adopted and became effective on January 1, January 1, Adoption of GHG emissions limits and reduction measures by regulation. On October 28, 2010, CARB released its proposed cap-and-trade regulations, which would cover sources of approximately 85 percent of California's GHG emissions. 24 CARB s Board ordered its Executive Director to prepare a final regulatory package for cap-and-trade on December 16, January 1, GHG emissions limits and reduction measures adopted in 2011 became enforceable. As noted above, on December 11, 2008, CARB adopted the Scoping Plan to achieve the goals of AB 32. The Scoping Plan establishes an overall framework for the measures that will be adopted to reduce California s GHG emissions for various categories of emissions. CARB determined that achieving the 1990 emission level by 2020 would require an approximately 28.5 percent reduction of GHG emissions in the absence of new laws and regulations (referred to as business as usual or No Action Taken ). The Scoping Plan evaluates opportunities for sector-specific reductions, integrates all CARB and Climate Action Team early actions and additional GHG reduction measures by both entities, and identifies additional measures to be pursued as regulations, and outlines the role of a cap-and-trade program. The key elements of the Scoping Plan include the following: 26 Expanding and strengthening existing energy efficiency programs as well as building and appliance standards; Achieving a statewide renewable energy mix of 33 percent; Developing a California cap-and-trade program that links with other Western Climate Initiative partner programs to create a regional market system and caps sources contributing 85 percent of California's GHG emissions; Establishing targets for transportation-related GHG emissions for regions throughout California, and pursuing policies and incentives to achieve those targets; 22 California Air Resources Board, Summary of Board Meeting, Consideration of Recommendations for Discrete Early Actions for Climate Change Mitigation in California, June 21-22, 2007, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Summary of Board Meeting, Public Meeting to Consider Approval of Additions to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions under the California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 and to Discuss Concepts for Promoting and Recognizing Voluntary Early Actions, October 25-26, 2007, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Proposed Regulation to Implement the California Cap-and-Trade Program, December 16, 2010, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, California Cap-and-Trade Program, Resolution 10-42, December 16, 2010, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan, December 2008, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

10 Adopting and implementing measures pursuant to existing state laws and policies, including California's clean car standards, goods movement measures, and the Low Carbon Fuel Standard; and Creating targeted fees, including a public goods charge on water use, fees on high global warming potential gases, and a fee to fund the administrative costs of the State of California's long-term commitment to AB 32 implementation. In connection with preparation of the supplement to the Functional Equivalent Document, CARB released revised estimates of the expected 2020 emission reductions in consideration of the economic recession and the availability of updated information from development of measure-specific regulations. Incorporation of revised estimates in consideration of the economic recession reduced the projected 2020 emissions from 596 metric tons of CO 2 equivalent (MTCO 2e) to 545 million MTCO 2e (MMTCO 2e). 27 Under this scenario, achieving the 1990 emissions level in 2020 would require a reduction of GHG emissions of 118 MMTCO 2e, or 21.7 percent. This revised reduction represents a 6.8 percentage point reduction from the 28.5 percent level determined in CARB s 2008 Scoping Plan. The 2020 AB 32 baseline was also updated to account for measures incorporated into the inventory, including Pavley (vehicle model-years 2009 to 2016) and the renewable portfolio standard (12 percent to 20 percent). Inclusion of these measures further reduced the 2020 baseline to 507 MMTCO 2e. As a result, based on both the economic recession and the availability of updated information from development of measure-specific regulations, achieving the 1990 emission level would now require a reduction of GHG emissions of 80 MMTCO 2e or a reduction by approximately 16 percent (down from the 28.5 percent level determined in CARB s 2008 Scoping Plan) by 2020 in the business as usual or No Action Taken condition. 28,29 On October 1, 2013, CARB released a discussion draft first update to the Scoping Plan. The discussion draft recalculates 1990 GHG emissions using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report released in Using the AR4 global warming potentials ( GWPs ), the 427 MMTCO 2e 1990 emissions level and 2020 GHG emissions limit would be slightly higher, at 431 MMTCO 2e. 30 Based on the revised estimates of expected 2020 emissions identified in the 2011 supplement to the Functional Environmental Document and updated 1990 emissions levels identified in the draft first update to the Scoping Plan, achieving the 1990 emission level would require a reduction of 76 MMTCO 2e (down from 27 California Air Resources Board, Status of Scoping Plan Recommended Measures, July 25, 2011, website: accessed: May Ibid. 29 California Air Resources Board, Final Supplement to the AB 32 Scoping Plan Functional Equivalent Document, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan First Update, Discussion Draft for Public Review and Comment, October 2013, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

11 507 MMTCO 2e) or a reduction by approximately 15 percent (down from 28.5 percent) to achieve in 2020 emissions levels in the business as usual or No Action Taken condition. 31,32,33 CARB also aims to reduce GHG emissions significantly by As California moves closer to reaching the 2020 GHG emission reduction goal, state legislation has focused on furthering GHG emission reduction targets. Executive Order B was issued April 2015 and establishes a mid-term GHG reduction target for California of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 (discussed in further detail below). In 2016, the Legislature passed SB 37 with the companion bill AB 197, which further mandates the 2030 target and provides additional direction to CARB on strategies to reduce GHG emissions. In response to Executive Order B and SB 37, CARB is moving forward with a second update to the Scoping Plan to reflect the 2030 target. SB 32 (discussed in further detail later below) was enacted in 2016 and expands on AB 32 to require California to reduce GHG emissions to 40 percent below 1990 levels by The bill targets reductions from the leading GHG emitters in the state. Transportation is the largest sector of GHG emissions in the state and will be a primary subject for reductions. Through advances in technology and improved public transportation the state plans to significantly improve GHG emissions from transportation sources to meet the 2030 reduction goal. Executive Order B & SB 32 On April 29, 2015, Governor Edmund G. Brown Jr. issued Executive Order B to establish a California GHG reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels by This new emission reduction target of 40 percent below 1990 levels by 2030 is a step toward the ultimate goal of reducing emissions by 80 percent below 1990 levels by This matter was submitted in the Senate (SB 32), approved by both houses of the Legislature, and signed by the Governor on September 8, SB 32 requires the ARB to approve GHG emissions limits equivalent to 40percent below the 1990 level by Senate Bill 97 Per Senate Bill 97, which was signed into law on August 24, 2007, the California Natural Resources Agency adopted amendments to the State CEQA Guidelines, which address the specific obligations of public agencies when analyzing GHG emissions under CEQA to determine a project s effects on the environment (codified as Public Resources Code ). Specifically, Public Resources Code states, The Office of Planning and Research and the Natural Resources Agency shall periodically update the guidelines for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions or the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. Senate Bill 375 In September 2008, the California Legislature adopted Senate Bill 375 ( SB 375 ), legislation which (1) relaxes CEQA requirements for some housing projects that meet goals for reducing GHG emissions and 31 California Air Resources Board, Status of Scoping Plan Recommended Measures, July 25, 2011, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Final Supplement to the AB 32 Scoping Plan Functional Equivalent Document, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan First Update, Discussion Draft for Public Review and Comment, October 2013, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

12 (2) requires the regional governing bodies in each of the state s major metropolitan areas to adopt, as part of their regional transportation plan, sustainable community strategies that will meet the region s target for reducing GHG emissions. SB 375 creates incentives for implementing the sustainable community strategies by allocating federal transportation funds only to projects that are consistent with the emissions reductions. Local governments would then devise strategies for housing development, road-building and other land uses to shorten travel distances, reduce vehicular travel time and meet the new targets. If regions develop these integrated land use, housing, and transportation plans, residential projects that conform to the sustainable community strategy (and therefore contribute to GHG reduction) can have a more streamlined environmental review process. Renewable Portfolio Standards (SB 1078, SB 107, and SB1-2) Established in 2002 under Senate Bill (SB) 1078, and accelerated in 2006 under SB 107 and again in 2011 under SB1-2, California s Renewable Portfolio Standards ( RPS ) requires retail sellers of electric services to increase procurement from eligible renewable energy resources to 33 percent of total retail sales by ,35 The 33 percent standard is consistent with the RPS goal established in the Scoping Plan. 36 As interim measures, the RPS requires 20 percent of retail sales to be sourced from renewable energy by 2013, and 25 percent by Initially, the RPS provisions applied to investor-owned utilities, community choice aggregators, and electric service providers. SB1-2 added, for the first time, publicly-owned utilities to the entities subject to RPS. The expected growth in RPS to meet the standards in effect in 2008 is not reflected in the business as usual calculation in the AB 32 Scoping Plan, discussed below. In other words, the Scoping Plan s business as usual 2020 does not take credit for implementation of RPS that occurred after its adoption. 37 GHG Emissions Standard for Baseload 38 Generation Senate Bill 1368, which was signed into law on September 29, 2006, prohibits any retail seller of electricity in California from entering into a long-term financial commitment for baseload generation if the GHG emissions are higher than those from a combined-cycle natural gas power plant. This performance standard (i.e., reducing long-term GHG emissions as a result of electrical baseload generation) applies to electricity generated both within and outside of California, and to publicly owned as well as investorowned electric utilities. 34 Legislative Counsel of California, Senate Bill 1078, September 2002, website: accessed: May Legislative Counsel of California, Senate Bill 1368, September 2006, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan, December 2008, website: accessed: May California Air Resources Board, Climate Change Scoping Plan Appendices, Vol. I, December 2008, website: accessed: May Baseload is the minimum amount of power an electrical, or other utility, company must generate in a 24-hour time period to meet estimated demand from its customers. County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

13 Mobile Source Reductions Assembly Bill 1493, the Pavley Standard, required CARB to adopt regulations by January 1, 2005, to reduce GHG emissions from non-commercial passenger vehicles and light-duty trucks of model year 2009 through The bill also required the California Climate Action Registry to develop and adopt protocols for the reporting and certification of GHG emissions reductions from mobile sources for use by CARB in granting emission reduction credits. The bill authorizes CARB to grant emission reduction credits for reductions of GHG emissions prior to the date of enforcement of regulations, using model year 2000 as the baseline for reduction. 39 In 2004, CARB applied to the U.S. EPA for a waiver under the federal Clean Air Act to authorize implementation of these regulations. The waiver request was formally denied by the U.S. EPA in December 2007 after California filed suit to prompt federal action. In January 2008, the State Attorney General filed a new lawsuit against the U.S. EPA for denying California's request for a waiver to regulate and limit GHG emissions from these vehicles. In January 2009, U.S. EPA was directed to reconsider California s request for a waiver. On June 30, 2009, the U.S. EPA granted the waiver to California for its GHG emission standards for motor vehicles. As part of this waiver, U.S. EPA specified the following provision: CARB may not hold a manufacturer liable or responsible for any noncompliance caused by emission debits generated by a manufacturer for the 2009 model year. CARB has adopted a new approach to passenger vehicles (cars and light trucks), by combining the control of smog-causing pollutants and GHG emissions into a single coordinated package of standards. The new approach also includes efforts to support and accelerate the numbers of plug-in hybrids and zero-emission vehicles in California. Low Carbon Fuel Standard Executive Order S (January 18, 2007) requires a 10 percent or greater reduction in the average fuel carbon intensity for transportation fuels in California regulated by CARB. CARB identified the Low Carbon Fuel Standard ( LCFS ) as a Discrete Early Action item under AB 32, and the final resolution (09-31) was issued on April 23, In 2009, CARB approved for adoption the LCFS regulation, which became fully effective in April 2010 and is codified at Title 17, California Code of Regulations, Sections The LCFS will reduce GHG emissions by reducing the carbon intensity of transportation fuels used in California by at least 10 percent by Clean Cars In January 2012, CARB approved the Advanced Clean Cars Program, a new emissions-control program for model year 2017 through The program combines the control of smog, soot, and GHGs with requirements for greater numbers of zero-emission vehicles. The National Program standards, developed collaboratively by USEPA, NHTSA, and CARB, have been projected by Model Year 2025 to double fuel economy and cut GHG emissions in half, save 6 billion metric tons of CO 2 emissions and 12 billion barrels 39 CARB, Clean Car Standards - Pavley, Assembly Bill 1493, website: 40 California Air Resources Board, Initial Statement of Reason for Proposed Regulation for The Management of High Global Warming Potential Refrigerant for Stationary Sources, October 23, 2009, website: accessed: May County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

14 of oil over the lifetime of Model Year vehicles, and deliver significant savings for consumers at the gas pump. 41 Green Building Code (California Code of Regulations, Title 24) Although not originally intended to reduce GHG emissions, California Code of Regulations Title 24 Part 6: California s Energy Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential Buildings ( Title 24 ), was first adopted in 1978 in response to a legislative mandate to reduce California s energy consumption. Since then, Title 24 has been amended to recognize that energy-efficient buildings require less electricity and reduce fuel consumption, which, in-turn, decreases GHG emissions. The current 2016 Title 24 standards were adopted, among other reasons, to respond to the requirements of AB 32. Specifically, new development projects constructed within California after January 1, 2017 are subject to the mandatory planning and design, energy efficiency, water efficiency and conservation, material conservation and resources efficiency, and environmental quality measures of the California Green Building Standards ( CALGreen ) Code (California Code of Regulations, Title 24, Part 11). The outdoor water use standards of the CALGreen Code are already addressed by the City s Water Conservation Ordinance. Cap-and-Trade Program As mentioned above, the Scoping Plan identifies a cap-and-trade program as one of the strategies the State will employ to reduce GHG emissions that cause climate change. The cap-and-trade program is implemented by CARB and caps GHG emissions from the industrial, utility, and transportation fuels sections, which account for roughly 85 percent of the State s GHG emissions. The program works by establishing a hard cap on about 85 percent of total Statewide GHG emissions. The cap starts at expected business-as-usual emissions levels in 2012, and declines two to three percent per year through Fewer and fewer GHG emissions allowances are available each year, requiring covered sources to reduce their emissions or pay increasingly higher prices for those allowances. The cap level was originally set in 2020 to ensure California complies with AB 32 s emission reduction target of returning to 1990 GHG emission levels. On October 20, 2011, CARB s Board adopted the final cap-and-trade regulation. The capand-trade program began on January 1, 2012, with an enforceable compliance obligation beginning with the 2013 GHG emissions. 42 In July, 2017, the Legislature passed legislation to extend the cap-and-trade program to The most recent amendments to the cap-and-trade program were approved by CARB on July 27, 2017 and became effective on October 1, These regulations would, among other things, extend the Program beyond 2020 by establishing new emissions caps, enabling future auction and allocation of allowances, and continuing all other provisions needed to implement the Program after The scope of GHG emission sources subject to cap-and-trade in the first compliance period ( ) includes all electricity generated and imported into California (the first deliverer of electricity into the State in the capped entity and that one that will have to purchase allowances as appropriate), and 41 Draft Technical Assessment Report: Mid Term Evaluation of Light Duty Vehicle Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards and Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards for Model Years , July 2016, page ES-1, 42 CARB, Cap-and-Trade Program, website: 43 Governor Brown Signs Landmark Climate Bill to Extend California's Cap-and-Trade Program, July 25, CARB, Amendments to the California Cap on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Market-Based Compliance Mechanisms, Final Statement of Reasons, August, County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project

15 large industrial facilities emitting more than 25,000 MTCO 2E per year (e.g., oil refineries and cement manufacturers). The scope of GHG emission sources subjected to cap-and-trade during the second compliance period ( ) expands to include distributors of transportation fuels (including gasoline and diesel), natural gas, and other fuels. The regulated entity will be the fuel provider that distributes the fuel upstream (not the gas station). In total, the cap-and-trade program is expected to include roughly 350 large businesses, representing about 600 facilities. Individuals and small businesses will not be regulated. Under the program, companies do not have individual or facility-specific reduction requirements. Rather, all companies covered by the regulation are required to turn in allowances 45 in an amount equal to their total GHG emissions during each phase of the program. The program gives companies the flexibility to either trade allowances with others or take steps to cost-effectively reduce emissions at their own facilities. Companies that emit more will have to turn in more allowances. Companies that can cut their emissions will have to turn in fewer allowances. Furthermore, as the cap declines, total GHG emissions are reduced. Regional South Coast Air Quality Management District Policies (SCAQMD) SCAQMD is principally responsible for comprehensive air pollution control in the Basin, which includes Los Angeles, Orange, and the urbanized portions of Riverside and San Bernardino Counties, including the Project Site. SCAQMD works directly with Southern California Association of Governments, County transportation commissions, and local governments and cooperates actively with all federal and State government agencies to regulate air quality. In April 2008, the SCAQMD, in order to provide guidance to local lead agencies on determining the significance of GHG emissions identified in CEQA documents, convened a GHG CEQA Significance Threshold Working Group. The goal of the working group is to develop and reach consensus on an acceptable CEQA significance thresholds for GHG emissions that may be utilized on an interim basis until CARB (or some other state agency) develops guidance on assessing the significance of GHG emissions under CEQA. See also Thresholds of Significance subheading herein. Southern California Association of Governments On April 6, 2016, SCAG s Regional Council adopted the Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy: Towards a Sustainable Future ( RTP/SCS). The SCAG 2016 RTP/SCS is an update to the RTP/SCS that further integrates land use and transportation in certain areas so that the region as a whole can grow smartly and sustainably. Between 2015 and 2040, the region is anticipated to experience increases in population, households and jobs. The 2016 RTP/SCS includes land use strategies, based on local general plans, as well as input from local governments, to achieve the AB 32 state-mandated reductions in GHG emissions through decreases in regional per capita VMT. As part of the RTP/SCS, transportation network improvements would be included, and more compact, infill, walkable and mixed-use development strategies to accommodate new region s 45 Allowance means a limited tradable authorization to emit up to one metric ton of carbon dioxide equivalent. County of Los Angeles Page Vermont Corridor Project