Hector Guerrero. Excel Data Analysis. Modeling and Simulation. < J Springer

Transcription

1 Hector Guerrero Excel Data Analysis Modeling and Simulation < J Springer

2 Introduction to Spreadsheet Modeling Introduction What's an MBA to do? Why Model Problems? Why Model Decision Problems with Excel? Spreadsheet Feng Shui/Spreadsheet Engineering A Spreadsheet Makeover Julia's Business Problem A Very Uncertain Outcome Ram's Critique Julia's New and Improved Workbook Summary 16 Presentation of Quantitative Data Introduction Data Classification Data Context and Data Orientation Data Preparation Advice Types of Charts and Graphs Ribbons and the Excel Menu System Some Frequently Used Charts Specific Steps for Creating a Chart An Example of Graphical Data Analysis and Presentation Example Tere's Budget for the 2nd Semester of College Collecting Data Summarizing Data Analyzing Data Presenting Data Some Final Practical Graphical Presentation Advice Summary 51 Analysis of Quantitative Data Introduction What is Data Analysis? Data Analysis Tools 57

3 cii Contents 3.4 Data Analysis for Two Data Sets Time Series Data Visual Analysis Cross-Sectional Data Visual Analysis Analysis of Time Series Data Descriptive Statistics Analysis of Cross-Sectional Data Descriptive Statistics Analysis of Time Series Data Forecasting/Data Relationship Tools Graphical Analysis Linear Regression Covariance and Correlation Other Forecasting Models Findings Analysis of Cross-Sectional Data Forecasting/Data Relationship Tools Findings Summary 93 4 Presentation of Qualitative Data Introduction What is Qualitative Data? Essentials of Effective Qualitative Data Presentation Planning for Data Presentation and Preparation Data Entry and Manipulation Tools for Data Entry and Accuracy Data Transposition to Fit Excel.... : Data Conversion with the Logical IF Data Conversion of Text from Non-Excel Sources Data queries with Sort, Filter, and Advanced Filter Sorting Data Filtering Data Filter Advanced Filter An Example Summary Analysis of Qualitative Data Introduction Essentials of Qualitative Data Analysis Dealing with Data Errors PivotChart or PivotTable Reports An Example PivotTables... : PivotCharts TiendaMfa.com Example Question TiendaMfa.com Example Question Summary 171

4 xiii 6 Inferential Statistical Analysis of Data Introduction Let the Statistical Technique Fit the Data x 2 Chi-Square Test of Independence for Categorical Data Tests of Hypothesis Null and Alternative z-test and t-test of Categorical and Interval Data An Example z-test: 2 Sample Means Is There a Difference in Scores for SC Non-Prisoners and EB Trained SC Prisoners? t-test: Two Samples Unequal Variances Do Texas Prisoners Score Higher Than Texas Non-Prisoners? Do Prisoners Score Higher Than Non-Prisoners Regardless of the State? How do Scores Differ Among Prisoners of SC and Texas Before Special Training? Does the EB Training Program Improve Prisoner Scores? What If the Observations Means Are Different, But We Do Not See Consistent Movement of Scores? Summary Comments ANOVA ANOVA: Single Factor Example Do the Mean Monthly Losses of Reefers Suggest That the Means are Different for the Three Ports? Experimental Design Randomized Complete Block Design Example Factorial Experimental Design Example Summary Modeling and Simulation: Part Introduction What is a Model? How Do We Classify Models? An Example of Deterministic Modeling A Preliminary Analysis of the Event Understanding the Important Elements of a Model Pre-Modeling or Design Phase Modeling Phase Resolution of Weather and Related Attendance Attendees Play Games of Chance Fr. Efia's What-if Questions Summary of OLPS Modeling Effort Model Building with Excel 236

5 7.5.1 Basic Model Sensitivity Analysis Controls from the Forms Control Tools Option Buttons Scroll Bars Summary 252 Modeling and Simulation: Part Introduction Types of Simulation and Uncertainty Incorporating Uncertain Processes in Models The Monte Carlo Sampling Methodology Implementing Monte Carlo Simulation Methods " A Word About Probability Distributions Modeling Arrivals with the Poisson Distribution 27T VLOOKUP and HLOOKUP Functions A Financial Example Income Statement An Operations Example Autohaus Status of Autohaus Model Building the Brain Worksheet Building the Calculation Worksheet Variation in Approaches to Poisson Arrivals Consideration of Modeling Accuracy Sufficient Sample Size Building the Data Collection Worksheet Results Summary...'> 299 Solver, Scenarios, and Goal Seek Tools Introduction Solver Constrained Optimization Example York River Archaeology Budgeting Formulation Formulation of YRA Problem Preparing a Solver Worksheet Using Solver Solver Reports Some Questions for YRA Scenarios Example 1 Mortgage Interest Calculations Example 2 An Income Statement Analysis 328

6 9.5 Goal Seek 329 " Example 1 Goal Seek Applied to the PMT Cell Example 2 Goal Seek Applied to the CUMIPMT Cell Summary 334