The impact of Cohesion Policy

Transcription

1 The impact of Cohesion Policy on the level and quality of employment in Poland Warsaw, July 2010 This study is co-financed from the European Union funds under the Operational Programme Technical Assistance

2 Contractor: PAG Uniconsult ul. Migdałowa 4 lok Warszawa tel. (22) fax. (22) biuro@pag-uniconsult.pl Authors: Jerzy Drążkiewicz Ewa Kusideł Karolina Jakubowska Paweł Penszko Artur Gajdos Tomasz Schimanek Contracting Authority: Department of Structural Policy Coordination Ministry of Regional Development ul. Wspólna 2/ Warszawa Warszawa, lipiec 2010 r. The study co-financed from the European Union funds under the Operational Programme Technical Assistance

3 CONTENTS: Summary of the report...5 The dictionary of terms and acronyms used in the report Introduction Goals and general premises of the study Study approach Scope of the study Definitions of adopted indicators Study methodology Macroeconomic analysis (top-down approach) The analysis of selected types of intervention (bottom-up approach) Restrictions of the research process Diagnosis of the situation in the Polish labour market- in two studied subperiods: , The level of occupational activity Unemployed persons and long-term unemployed persons Employment rates Employment rates broken down by age and gender The employed Employment structure in three economic sectors Employment structure in the Polish Classification of Activities (NACE) sections, taking into account changes in human capital Employment structure broken down by education and gender Full-time and part-time employees The employed for a definite and indefinite period Forecasted demand for labour in Poland in the context of European trends Summary The process of transition to the knowledge-based economy (KBE) Changes in employment in knowledge-based sections The employed broken down by occupations and specialties Summary Convergence in the regional labour markets Beta and sigma convergence Allocation of EU funds and the situation on labour markets Summary The impact of the cohesion policy on the level and structure of employment The impact of all the interventions Scenarios for the development of Poland s labour market according to the macromodels of Poland s economy (Hermin, MaMoR3, EuImpactModII) Triangulation of results and identifying a hypothetical path of labour market development The influence of selected types of interventions The influence of company support The influence of the support on employee training

4 5.2.3 Impact of support in the scope of training of the unemployed Conclusion Conclusions and Recommendations Annexes

5 SUMMARY OF THE REPORT [1] The present report is the final report from the study entitled "The impact of Cohesion Policy on the level and quality of employment in Poland contracted by the Ministry of Regional Development to PAG Uniconsult company to be carried out between November 2009 July [2] The main objective of the study was to analyse and assess the impact of interventions co-financed from the EU structural funds under the Cohesion Policy on the level and quality of employment, taking into account the requirements of the knowledge-based economy. [3] The study combined the top-down and bottom-up approaches. As part of the first approach macroeconomic analyses were carried out, based on statistical data of the Central Statistical Office (available at mainly from LFS questionnaires. In addition the results from the existing macro-models of Polish economy were used (such as EuImpactMod, MaMoR and Hermin which serve to evaluate EU funds). The bottom-up elements of the study included interviews with entrepreneurs and employees in enterprises who underwent training (IDI, CAPI and CATI techniques), case studies of individual enterprises, as well as the analysis, with the use of PSM method, of the net effect of trainings for unemployed. In addition the analysis of existing data was used, with the use of reports and available results of studies. The triangulation of research methods was applied to prepare a synthesis of data coming from different sources in order to formulate final conclusions. [4] The macroeconomic (top-down) analyses took into account all interventions cofinanced from the European Social Fund (ESF), the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Cohesion Fund under operational programmes foreseen in the National Development Fund The analysis took into account expenditure spent as at 31 December 2008, based on the data included in annual reports. Bottom-up survey research only concerned interventions in the area of aid for enterprises and trainings, co-financed from the ESF and ERDF. In programming period such projects were carried out in Poland mostly as part of the Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the Competitiveness of Enterprises (SOP ICE) and Sectoral Operational Program Human Resource Development (SOP HRD). [5] A number of conclusions may be drawn on the effectiveness, usefullness, sustainability and efficiency of cohesion policy interventions in the Polish labour market: (a) Below we present the main conclusions drawn from macroeconomic analyses. General tendencies in the labour market The general tendency of change in the labour market in Poland after acceding to the EU is strongly positive; in the years the employment rate was falling at the rate of 1.33 pps, whereas in the period it was rising at 1.86 rate. The National Development Plan - NDP (from 2003) assumed the achievement in 2006 of the percent employment rate. The actual value of the employment rate of total population aged was 54.5 in 2006 so the goals of NDP in this respect were attained. The main contributing factor here was the growth of the men employment rate, because this rate for women is still much lower than the 5

6 values assumed in strategic documents. The women employment rates are generally much lower than those of men in each of the analysed age groups, with the largest difference among the oldest workers: 50+ and The trend of change in women education level is positive: the percentage of employed women with higher education was 7 percent in 1999 but it almost doubled in 2008 (to 13 %). After the accession the decrease of the professional activity rate slowed down the low professional activity rate and its decrease is one the largest threats to the labour market in Poland. Despite the slowdown of the downward trend, the fact that this tendency is still downward is a matter of concern, although the most recent data show the increase of the professional activity rate of Poles. The impact of cohesion policy on the changes in the labour market in Poland In Poland in the employment among the persons aged increased by over 2.2 million persons, which is approx. a 16-percent rise compared to 2003, when the number of employed in this age group was 13.3 million persons. In 2008 the impact of cohesion policy on employment increase was from 46 to 124 thousand persons which is from 0.35 to 0.93 percent compared to the number of employed persons in Taking into consideration the change in the number of employed which took place in the post-accession period, some 2,1-5,6% of the general growth of employment may be attributed to cohesion policy (a particularly positive impact was identified in case of persons aged 15-24, persons with basic education level - ISCED 0-2 and persons employed at the positions of industrial workers and artisans, as well as the operators and fitters of machines and equipment). The other part of the employment increase in the post-accession period must be attributed to other factors than the cohesion policy and mainly economic ones. The above comparison shows that although the labour market trends are positive, the cohesion policy measures do not have the most important role in this change. By using the macroeconomic models it is possible to assess also that the cohesion policy interventions caused in 2008 the employment rate to rise by pps. Due to the use of funds, the unemployment rate fell by 0.7 pps maximum. But the impact of the cohesion policy on female unemployment rate was quite strong it was pps in The structure of the employed by the three economy sectors The structure of the employed by the three sectors of the economy is one of the basic indicators of the structure of economy monitored as part of the main goal of the National Development Strategy (NDS). One of the premises of NDS is to lower the share of employed in agriculture and to increase the share of persons working in services and these changes may be observed both nation-wide and in the majority of Polish voivodeships. In 2008 the share of employed in agricultural, industrial and services sector was respectively 14%, 32 % and 54% and the structure of working persons assumed for the year 2006 in the National Development Programme was 17.5%, 30.5 % and 52 %. The changes that have taken place in the employment structure consist mostly of decreases in the number of employed in agriculture and an increase of employment in services and they reflect the objectives set in this area in strategic documents. 6

7 Convergence in the regional labour markets Conducted studies showed that in post-accession period both the employment rates (by sex, age, disability) and the structure of employed in three economic sectors have been converging (the exception being the rate of employed in agriculture). Because in the analogous period before the accession the convergence process could not (in general) be seen, and in certain cases a divergence was detected, one might conclude that the cohesion policy has had a positive impact on convergence in regional labour markets. In order to verify this hypothesis data coming from the macromodels, which help to assess the cohesion policy impact (MaMoR i EuImpact), were analysed. Based on the results of the MaMoR3 model it may be stated that the implementation of the cohesion policy is speeding up (slightly however) the pace of convergence of the voivodeship labour markets both in terms of the total employment rate and of the employment rates of two sexes. Whereas based on the EuImpactMod model results we can draw a similar conclusion in relation to the fraction of employed in industry and services. The process of transition to the knowledge-based economy (KBE) The analysis of secondary data (LFS) conducted in the study does not provide a clear answer to the question of whether the process of switching to KBE after the accession to the EU intensifies or not, but it must be underlined that the occupational and sectoral structure of the employed does change in direction of KBE. The analysis of change in human capital measured by the share of employed with higher education in the total number of employed shows that the share is growing in almost every section from the beginning of the year covered with analysis (1999). As far as the main sectors of economy, we can observe an intensifying downturn of the share of employed in agriculture after the accession to the EU, which is one of the proofs of transition to KBE. The analysis of the services sections of the Polish Classification of Activities belonging to the so-called KIS (knowledge intensive services) shows that after the accession to the EU either a quantitative (intensification of employment growth) or qualitative (growth of human capital) improvement has taken place in KIS sections. Looking at a crosssection of very large and large occupational groups, in half of occupational groups (belonging to the three large occupational groups considered to be the carrier of KBE specialists; technicians and other medium personnel; operators and fitters of machines and equipment) the intensification of switch to KBE was noted after the accession. (b) A significant direct impact of EU funded measures on employment may be observed in enterprises that received aid under Priority II of the SOP ICE. In enterprises that received grants, the number of workplaces in increased on average by 7.57, while in the control sample of enterprises not covered with aid only by 0.45 workplace. The additionality of aid in created workplaces was estimated at 78 percent, and the deadweight effect at 22 percent. The declaration of respondents, as well as a comparison with the control group, leads to a conclusion that the entire observed growth of the number of workplaces in this group of enterprises may be attributed to subsidies. It translates to a net number of approx. 30 thousand of workplaces created in the years

8 (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) From the analysis of data from surveys clear conclusions may be drawn concerning the impact of EU funds on the development of KBE. In the enterprises that have used funding 46 percent of created workplaces was addressed to specialists, technicians, machine operators and fitters which are the occupational categories recognised as the "carriers of knowledge. In enterprises not using the aid the share of all these categories in created workplaces was smaller 34 percent in total. Over three fourth of jobs created in companies thanks to EU funding may be classified as sustainable because they were preserved at least for two years after the funding stopped. The companies included in assistance programmes under Priority II of SOP ICE created on average 5.45 sustainable workplaces. The jobs created in medium-sized enterprises, formed in the 1990s and carrying out projects under the Submeasure 2.2.1, proved to be particularly sustainable. There are facts that indicate that the aid granted under SOP ICE contributes to the increase of the quality of jobs in enterprises covered (workplaces for persons with tertiary education, in KBE sections, in managerial positions). In addition these enterprises more often employed the long-term unemployed persons and persons with disability. Based on the case studies concerning the enterprises which received aid under SOP ICE a conclusion may be formed that companies that used their aid to introduce modern technologies and organisational solutions have dealt better with the economic crisis in the years , which translated into the ability to sustain jobs or even to increase employment once the economic situation improved. Comparing micro-, small- and medium-sized enterprises which received subsidies under the Priority II SOP ICE, we can observe that although the larges increase of the number of workplaces attributed to the support was noted in medium enterprises (by workplaces on average), the largest relative impact of subsidies on the level of employment was recorded in micro-enterprises in which these subsidies helped to prevent the loss of jobs. If we assume that a job getting better is a situation in which an employee was promoted to a higher position or received a salary increase or another extra-benefit outside salary, or general conditions of their work improved, then we can conclude that three quarters of surveyed employees which took part in ESF-funded trainings, improved their objective working conditions. However only every fifth respondent stated that it was the participation in the project that contributed to improving the objective conditions of their workplace. As part of the study a net effect of ESF-funded trainings for unemployed registered in Poviat Labour Offices (poviat is NUTS IV region in Poland) was measured. The control sample selected with a PSM (Propensity Score Matching) method allowed to draw conclusions about the future fates of the training participants had they not taken part in these trainings. The impact of trainings on a professional situation of these unemployed could be extracted in this way. The measured effect was performing by a trained individual a non-subsidized salaried work 18 months after taking part in the project. A clear growing tendency was observed: the net effect grew from a negative 8

9 one, noted in case of trainings which ended in 2004 or 2005, to a decisively positive one in case of trainings ending in 2007 or later. The avarege net effect of ESF-funded trainings for the entire programming period was close to 0 (- 1 pp). An especially high positive net effect was recorded in Pomorskie voivodeship where already 3 months after from the training ended the effect was positive and at the end of the examined period it fluctuated around 10 pps. A slight positive net effect was also observed in Dolnośląskie and Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship starting with the 3rd-4th month after the training. The growth trend of the net effect may testify to the gradual growth of quality of trainings. The results suggest that the negative net effect in the initial period and inter-voivodeship variation in the trainings net effect may be explained by the phenomenon of massive migration that took place in the years [6] On the basis of the study results general recommendations were formulated concerning the programming and implementation of cohesion policy interventions in the labour market: A better tailoring of cohesion policy instruments to the economic development strategy and to the labour market is needed in the area of employment. This may be achieved by including these instrments in the currently developed long- and medium-term strategy of national development and the nine development stratagies and tailoring them to the strategies. Especially innovation and economy effectiveness strategy, human resource development strategy and regional development strategies are of concerng here. Becase of the up-to-date effectiveness of this solution it seems expedient to continue directing the cohesion policy instruments to support social convergence in the labour market. In order to support the process of transition towards knowledge-based economy in the cohesion-policy programming it would be advisable to address support directly to the knowledge-based sectors and high-tech sectors so that they can have a bigger share in the allocated funding for businesses than in the programming period. A method of supporting the development of companies and creating workplaces in them which seems more effective than direct funding is investing in development of business-surrounding institutions, whose services will be available to a wider population of companies and whose measures will aim at increasing competitiveness and innovation in businesses. The share of this type of instruments in cohesion policy should be increased. The support for companies should be combined in packages financed both from ERDF and ESF (investments in fixed assests, consulting and trainings and financial support bank guarantees etc.) In case of a cohesion policy oriented at the growth of employment, for maximum additionality and effectiveness of support it is recommended to support micro-companies (where these parameters attain highest values), but in order to maximise growth of the employment level medium-sized enterprises should be aided (in which, thank to the projects, the largest number of sustainable jobs is created). It is necessary to create a common harmonised methodology for evaluation of cohesion policy effects and to conduct research in all EU Member States with the use of this methodology. This requires harmonising definitions of monitored indicators in order to assure comparability of collected data, creating uniform research questionnaires etc. 9

10 The requirement of applying by all project promoters a standard set of output indicators when assessing projects implementation should be introduced, so as to be able to link more precisely the actual changes in the labour market with the use of specific instruments. For the purpose of future studies, it is recommended that the databases of the National System of Labour Market Monitoring be supplemented with the information on the use of aid as part of the active labour market policies and on the sources of funding this aid, and it should be ensured that the input of data is done in a uniform way at the level of poviat labour offices. 10

11 THE DICTIONARY OF TERMS AND ACRONYMS USED IN THE REPORT LFS CAPI CATI CEDEFOP ERDF ESF KBE IDI CI EQUAL CI INTERREG IA ISCO NDP NCS PEFS PKD PULS SOP HRD SOP ICE SRP VLO Voivodeship Poviat IROP Labour Force Survey Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing a survey performed with the use of computer Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing a survey performed with the use of telephone and computer European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training European Regional Development Fund European Social Fund knowledge-based economy In-Depth Interview individual detailed survey Community Initiative EQUAL Community Initiative INTERREG Implementing Authority International Standard Classification of Occupations National Development Plan National Cohesion Strategy Subsystem of European Social Fund monitoring (Polska Klasyfikacja Działalności, in short: PKD) - Polish Classification of Activities PULS IT system Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resource Development Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the Competitiveness of Enterprises (Stan Realizacji Projektów, in short: SRP) Status of Project Implementation database of projects co-financed under NRP Voivodeship Labour Office Name of Polish NUTS II regions Name of Polish NUTS IV regions Integrated Regional Operational Programme 11

12 1. INTRODUCTION In the period from November 2009 until July 2010 the PAG Uniconsult company conducted a study commissioned by the Department of Structural Policy Coordination at the Ministry of Regional Development of the impact of cohesion policy at the level and quality of employment in Poland. The objective of the present evaluation study was to determine the role and impact of the European cohesion policy on raising the level and quality of employment in Poland. The study is a part of an international project carried out in the Vyshehrad Group countries. 1.1Goals and general premises of the study The basic objective of the study was to: analyse and assess the impact of interventions co-financed from the EU structural funds under the Cohesion Policy on the level and quality of employment, taking into account the requirements of the knowledge-based economy. The research process was conducted based on the following evaluation criteria: UTILITY assessment of the relevance of the actual intervention effects in relation to the identified socio-economic needs of beneficiaries or of a given area; EFFECTIVENESS assessment of the extent to which the objectives of the project defined at the programming stage were attained; EFFICIENCY assessment of the level of economy of structural funds interventions which is the proportion of inputs to obtained outputs (including the unit cost of maintained/created jobs); SUSTAINABILITY assessment of whether the previously planned positive intervention effects (incl. created jobs) will be able to sustain after the intervention of structural funds is ended. 1.2 Study approach The concept of the study adopted by the Contractor assumes the integration of two approaches: top-down and bottom-up. This means in consequence that the answers to research questions contain data taken both from macroeconomic analyses, the existing quantity research (LFS) and empirical studies conducted as part of the present research project. The concept of the study is conform with the EC guidelines presented in the Working Document No 6 of the European Commission Study on Measuring Employment Effects 1. Two general study approaches used to measure effects of Structural Funds on employment: 1st Bottom-up approach represented most often by survey-based research and analysis of databases of projects and beneficiaries of operational programmes; 2nd Top-down approach meaning most often statistical and econometric analysis of data taken mostly from public statistics. 1 DG REGIO, Working Document no 6. Study on Measuring Employment Effects, March 2007 r. 12

13 1.3 Scope of the study The macroeconomic (top-down) analyses took into account all interventions co-financed from the European Social Fund (ESF), the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) and the Cohesion Fund under operational programmes foreseen in the National Development Fund The analysis covered the expenditure spent as at 31 December 2008, based on the data included in annual reports. The bottom-up survey-based research concerned only, in accordance with the requirements of the Terms of Reference, interventions in the area of aid for enterprises and trainings, co-financed from the European Social Fund (ESF) and the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). In programming perspective such projects were mostly implemented under: Sectoral Operational Programme Improvement of the Competitiveness of Enterprises; Sectoral Operational Programme Human Resource Development. 1.4 Definitions of adopted indicators The study used the definitions of indicators formulated in the Working Document No 6 of the European Commission Study on Measuring Employment Effects, i.e.: 1st Number of jobs created new jobs that are created directlyby Structural Fund intervention within three years after the intervention ends. These may be temporary or permanent. Permanent jobs jobs that last for at least two years after the end of project in which they were created. A temporary job is a new job that lasts more than a total of six person-months during the course of the project (thereby being equal to one FTE job) but not beyond the period of assistance from the Structural Funds. Full time jobs - full time jobs are ones that provide employment for more than half the working week. Part time jobs - jobs that provide employment for less than half the working week. Part-time job estimates should be translated into full-time equivalents (FTEs). In the present study the Contracting Authority indicated one more division of work places: into those based on contracts for a definite period and contracts for an indefinite period. 2nd Number of jobs maintained existing jobs that are at risk and would be lost without Structural Fund intervention. 3rd Number of employees whose skills were developed as a result of intervention ( number of improved jobs ) employees who have received training and other assistance to develop skills. 4th Number of employees who found employment as a result of intervention - unemployed people benefiting from assistance that contributed to their actual employment. 1.5 Study methodology The study was divided into stages and task were arranged in sequence so that in subsequent study modules the knowledge gathered in preceding stages could be used. 13

14 1.5.1 Macroeconomic analysis (top-down approach) In macroeconomic analysis the statistical data of GUS (Central Statistical Office) were used (available for most part at the Bank of Regional Data) and of Eurostat. Also data were utilised that were collected from surveys from the Labour Force Survey (LFS). Diagnosis of the situation in the Polish labour market in two studied subperiods: , The initial stage of all analyses is the diagnosis of the situation in the Polish labour market (employed and unemployed) in two subperiods: before and after the accession to the European Union. The analyses of the labour market structures were developed on the basis of LFS data (e.g. data concerning the structure of employed in large and medium-sized occupational groups, data on the employed in different Polish Classification of Activity sections by voivodeships, reasons for taking up employment for a definite, indefinite period, part or full time, level of education, and data for the age group). Inter-voivodeship comparison convergence and changes in the development level in the years The beta (β) and sigma (σ) convergence test was used in the study in order to examine whether the inter-voivodeship variation of employment rates, professional activity rate and unemployment rate was changing at all. The second aspect of studies at NUTS II level was the comparison of voivodeships labour markets in terms of professional activity rate, employment rates, and unemployment rate. Special focus was given to the structure of employment in three principal sectors of economy (agriculture, industry and services). These studies, according to the three sectors theory, may be identified as the study of the level of economic development. Determining a hypothetical development path (without the input of Funds) of the labour market indicators in Poland resulting from an extrapolation of development trends One of the method of determining gross effect of the Funds is the method consisting in extrapolation of historic trends. Calculating the difference between the current value of labour market indicators and their hypothetical values resulting from extrapolation of development trends, calculated for a pre-accession period, has allowed an initital assessment of the influence of cohesion policy on employment in cross-sections where the simulations taken from large macromodels of Polish economy were not available (see. paragraph below). Scenarios for the development of labour market in Poland resulting from the existing macro-models of Polish economy (EUImpactModII, MaMoR3, Hermin) and international studies on the future shape of labour markets in Europe In the study a synthesis of results was performed and results from the available macro-models was used: the model of general balance (EuImpactModII and MaMoR3), and (to a limited extent 2 ), from a multiple equation econometric model (Hermin). The synthetis of results enabled to show common tendencies in the assessment of the impact of cohesion policy on the labour market 14

15 incluing unemployment, level of employment, number of employed (also divided into three economic sectors) The analysis of selected types of intervention (bottom-up approach) Quality and quantity research methods were used in this module. The survey-based research was conducted in two groups supported from the EU funds: entrepreneurs and employees at enterprises. Desk research Various publications, documents and materials on the impact of EU Structural Funds interventions on the level and quality of employment in Poland were analysed as part of the analysis of existing data. Special attention was given to the results of the evaluation of ERDF and ESF intervention effects undertaken as part of the NDP Conclusions from the analysis of existing documents helped to supplement and verify final conclusions and recommendations of the study report. The report from the desk research analysis forms an appendix to the present report. In addition as part of the study main results of the on-going studies were collected (conducted 6 months after ultimate beneficiaries finished taking part in the project). These were used in specific operational programmes to calculate outcome indicators. These results and the information on the number of ultimate beneficiaries supported in each programme helped to calculate the indicators defined in Working Document No 6. In a few cases, in order to obtain comparable historical data, sets of data coming from previous evaluation studies underwent a second statistical analysis. In-depth Interviews In-depth Interviews were conducted in each of the studied group which received support from the European Funds: entrepreneurs and employees of enterprises. Their aim was mostly methodological - the interviews served to deepen the studied topic (for example by identifying new aspects), to verify the issues important from the point of view of research questionnaire and to obtain material for the construction of a questionnaire for survey-based research. Ten in-depth interviews were completed in total 5 with entrepreneurs and 5 with employees. Quantity research of entrepreneurs (CAPI) The Contractor received databases including information on entrepreneurs benefiting from the support and rejected applications for Measures 2.1, 2.2.1, 2.3 and 2.4 of SOP ICE computer assisted personal interviews were carried out in three random and stratified samples of enterprises: basic sample (N=700): entrepreneurs implementing projects under Measures 2.1, 2.2.1, 2.3 or 2.4 of SOP ICE. Control sample (N=150) "with no success : entrepreneurs who applied for co-financing under Measures 2.1, 2.2.1, 2.3 or 2.4 SOP ICE but with no effect and they have not implemented any EU co-financed projects. Control sample (N=700) "not applying : entrepreneurs who did not implement EU cofinanced projects. The structure of the sample group of those not applying was same as the structure of the basic sample in terms of a voivodeship (16 categories), size of company in time of applying for the EU funds (4 categories: micro, small, medium and large) and the sector of economy (2 categories: industry including construction and services). The lack of complete information on the size of company in the received no success enterprises database has made it impossible in practice to adjust the structure of the "no success" control sample to the basic sample in terms of the "size of enterprise category. This is why in case of no success control sample only voivodeship and economy sector were taken into account. The same structure of the basic and control samples was ensured at the stage of sample selection by using stratification. The number of interviews to carry out in a given stratum was defined in proportion to its share in the whole population of 15

16 beneficiaries of Measures 2.1, 2.2.1, 2.3 and 2.4 of SOP ICE. Because of proportional stratification the basic sample may be treated as representative for the total population of beneficiaries of Measures 2.1, 2.2.1, 2.3 and 2.4 of SOP ICE. CAPI interviews with entrepreneurs served mostly to: estimate the gross and net effect of support for enterprises under Priority II of SOP ICE in the field of employment: estimate the additionality parameter and study the force of impact of the displacement effect and indirect effects; assess quality and sustainability of created jobs; assess the net efficiency of Measures 2.1, and 2.3 in terms on impact on employment level. Quantity research of trained employees (CATI) The Contractor received a database of ultimate beneficiaries of Measure 2.3 of SOP HRD, from which it randomly selected for the study a sample of trained company employees. On the basis of this sample, the planned 1200 computer-assisted telephone interviews (CATI) were carried out. When selecting the sample stratification by voivodeship and by sex was applied. In case of stratification by sex, the number of interviews to conduct in a given stratum was determined proportionally to the structure of ultimate beneficiaries of Measure 2.3 of SOP HRD. In case of a voivodeship the number of interviews was allocated proportionally among the strata, but assuming the minimum number in a voivodeship of N=40 per sample, which enabled further analysis at voivodeships level. Stratification by age, education and profession of beneficiaries was not applied because the lack of relevant data in the obtained data base did not allow to determine the distribution of these variables in the population of ultimate beneficiaries. The basic objective of CATI interviews with trained enterprise employees was studying the effect of improvement of jobs thanks to using structural funds. Analysis of net effect by PSM method In order to assess the net effect of support in the field of trainings for the unemployed, the Propensity Score Matching (PSM) analysis was conducted of data on unemployed collated by the labour offices. The PSM method is based on the comparison of gross effect among beneficiaries of public intervention with gross effect in the control sample selected from individuals which were not beneficiaries of intervention. The selection of control sample is done with the use of synthetic ratio of probability of participation in the programme (propensity score). The result is that the selected control sample has a similar structure as the basic sample in terms of characteristics influencing the probability of participation in the programme and obtaining the desired effect (e.g. finding employment). This method eliminates the risk of overestimating the net effect which may result from selecting for the group of ultimate beneficiaries these persons which have better chances of finding employment (the so-called selection bias) 3. Using the central database of the National Labour Market Monitoring System (KSMRP) turned out to be impossible because of the lack of information of whether a given person received support from ESF. It was decided that the data will be taken from the PULS system used in labour offices. This required contacting offices and beginning cooperation with them. Because of organisation and technical issues, the random-stratified sample of 96 labour offices was selected (method of sample selection was described in detail in the methodological annex). As a result of cooperation with PLOs, data from 69 offices were obtained. In the end for the PSM analysis databases of 59 3 The PSM method was elaborated in the 1980s by Donald Rubin and Paul Rosenbaum. Since late 1990s (and in Poland since 2005) it becomes increasingly popular and used in assessing effects of public interventions. More information: A. Bryson, R. Dorsett, S. Purdon, The Use of Propensity Score Matching In the Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies, Working Paper Number 4, 2002 r. 16

17 offices were used (out of the remaining 10 offices, 8 databases contained errors which made it impossible to determine the source of funding for the trainings, one had technical errors in it and one was sent after the final deadline). In Łódzkie and Lubuskie voivodeship correct databases were only obtained only from one office, and in Wielkopolskie from two offices with low or medium unemployment rate and high value of implemented projects on the voivodeship scale. Because these data may not be considered representative for the entire voivodeship, we decided not to present separate results of analysis in these 3 voivodeships. The databases used contained information on persons registered as unemployed or searching for work. Among them there were persons who, as unemployed, have graduated from a ESF-funded training between 1 June 2004 and 1 June All these persons were included in the basic sample. The control sample selection used the nearest neighbour algorithm, 1 to 1 was used, without replacement. This means that every person that has finished EFS-financed training is assigned only one person not participating in such training, whose propensity score has the nearest value (in case there are several persons with the same value of this indicator, the choice between is made at random). This means also that the latter person was not assigned any other person who took part in trainings. Each person from the control sample was randomly attributed a date of beginning and ending from the set of actual training dates of the members of a basic sample. The value of propensity score indicator was estimated using logistic regression in which independent variables, presented below, were included. These are variables corresponding to factors which hypothetically influence both the probability of participation in training projects, and the chances of employment, or variables which are correlates of such factors. With the help of correlates such as the rate of appearance when summoned or participation in internships, other works or trainings we tried to capture the level of respondent's motivation to actually take up a job. Variables used independently for logistic regression: sex marital status, education disability, being a single parent number of children, age at the moment of start of training, total years of employment, first number of the occupation code, number of performed occupations, having a driver s licence number of known foreign languages, status of a graduate, status of a person without professional qualifications, number of days in unemployment before taking part in the training, number of work proposals received in the year preceding taking part in the training, rate of appearance when summoned by the offices in the two years preceding participation in training, number of days worked in internships for graduates, intervention works, public works in six months preceding the participation in training, the number of completed trainings in the two years preceding the participation in EUfunded training, the number of days spent on trainings completed in the two years preceding the participation in EU-funded training, participation in an internship before taking part in the training, the rate of urban population in the area of PLO activity, A separate model of logistic regression was created for each of the voivodeships. Propensity score was estimated and a separate selection of control sample was performed. Basic sample and control sample for the entire country are the sum of samples for individual voivodeships. Because 17

18 of the random and stratified character of selection of sample of poviat labour offices, the sample for the entire country was weighted by stratification criteria (voivodeship, rate or urban population, average unemployment rate in the area of PLO activity and the value of projects implemented by PLO per one unemployed person). Apart from the basic version of PSM, two additional PSM analyses were conducted. As part of deepening the analysis, separate models of logistic regression and matching the control sample were conducted for each quarter in which the training ended. This allowed to measure the variability of net effect in time. The third version of PSM analysis were logistic regression models and selection of control sample for each quarter, but with additional limitation imposed on basic sample vs. control sample, which is excluding persons which in used other forms of support than the trainings funded from EU funds. It should be noted that in the first two basic versions of the analysis, a classic experiment-based approach was used, in which both the basic and control groups were differentiated according to a single stimulus the participation in EU-funded trainings and equated according to all the other controlled characteristics. This allows the control group to be treated as a representation of a situation contrary to the basic group, should it not have received support in the form of trainings. The group of beneficiaries also included those people who received forms of support other than ESF-funded trainings. Therefore both the basic and control samples contained people who used these forms of support. The structure of the control sample was adjusted to the structure of the basic sample in terms of internship participation, intervention works, public works and trainings prior to the beginning of ESF funded training, and thus the noted difference between the basic and control samples cannot be attributed to the influence of these types of support. Members of the control group could participate in trainings funded from sources other than ESF. The percentage of such people is small in the first version of the PSM, 7.8% of control sample members and 7.3% of basic sample members participated in trainings funded from non-eu sources in Since the first two PSM versions did not exclude such people from the analysis, the additional effect of ESF-funded trainings above the trainings financed from the Labour Fund was analysed. In other words, the actual situation of ESF-funded training participants was juxtaposed with a contrary situation, which would occur if only trainings financed from the Labour Fund were conducted. In the third version of the PSM, the effect of ESF-funded trainings was analysed in isolation from trainings funded from other sources and any other forms of support (for beneficiaries who did not use these other forms of support). Due to a lack of data, the use of employment agencies and vocational counselling was not controlled in all analyses. After setting up the control sample, the employment situation of the analysed persons within 18 months after the conclusion of training was determined (this period of observation was the result of the available databases). The basis for conclusions regarding the net effect of trainings is the comparison of situations in the basic sample and in the control sample. When interpreting the results of PSM analysis, it should be noted that it allows for measuring the positivity of public interventions in terms of the future of the beneficiaries, but does not account for effects in entities not included in the interventions. Therefore, it does not include the displacement effect and indirect effects. Expert panel After the results from all fields of the survey had been examined and integrated, they were subjected to be discussed by the experts. The aim of the expert panel was to develop the final version of conclusions and recommendations following from the survey. Case studies At the stage of verification of the survey results case studies were prepared in relation to projects which constituted good practices in the field of creating stable and high quality jobs (10 case studies). Ten enterprises were selected for case studies. The basic criterion for their selection was creation of a considerable number of high quality jobs (e.g. more than 10% of current employment) in the enterprise with the help of the received support, according to the previous CAPI interview. On the 18

19 other hand, the aim was to have a diversified sample in relation to support forms (Measures), size and industry sector Restrictions of the research process The received databases containing information on entrepreneurs benefitting from support and on rejected applications under Measures 2.1, 2.2.1, 2.3 and 2.4 SOP ICE, in relation to some Measures lacked information on the size of the enterprise and the economy sector, which is important from the point of view of the methodology requirement of equivalence of the control sample structure and the structure of the main sample. The Contractor requested the institutions transferring databases to supplement them as well as has supplemented part of the missing information on its own. However, it was not possible to obtain fully complete data, therefore, the criterion of the enterprise size was excluded from the criteria of selection for the control sample "without success" in the CAPI assessment. The small number of projects implemented under Measure 2.4 SOP ICE, thus resulting in a small sample, in many cases constituted the cause of resignation from making statistical estimates for this Measure. The obtained database of ultimate beneficiaries of Measure SOP ICE 2.3 did not include information on their age, education or profession, which did not allow for determining the structure of ultimate beneficiaries population in relation to those variables. Hence, these criteria were not taken into account when selecting the sample for CATI assessment. Some labour offices did not agree to provide their gathered data on the unemployed or were not able to do so due to technical reasons (such use of software other than the PLUS system). The databases of 8 labour offices lacked appropriate information on the financing of trainings under the ESF, which prevented their use as a material for analyses. As a result of the above-mentioned problems, in three voivodeships correct data was obtained only from one or two labour offices, which does not allow for obtaining reliable results of the PSM analysis at the level of such voivodeships. The obtained databases generated from the PLUS system did not include information on such forms of support as employment intermediation, traineeship, professional counselling or support for economic activity which belong to the most efficient forms of support. 4 This made it impossible to take these forms of support into account in the PSM analysis, which in turn narrowed the support efficiency assessment only to trainings. The information on the source of financing was available only for the trainings. 4 See, among others, Badanie beneficjentów ostatecznych SPO RZL Osoby objęte wsparciem jako niepracujące ( Study of ultimate beneficiaries of the SOP ICE Persons covered with support as nonworking ), Ministry of Regional Development

20 2. DIAGNOSIS OF THE SITUATION IN THE POLISH LABOUR MARKET- IN TWO STUDIED SUBPERIODS: , This chapter includes a characteristics of the labour market in Poland during two studied subperiods before accession to the European Union ( ) and after accession ( ), according to the data from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), in order to receive the answer to the following question: have the trends concerning occupational activity, employment rate and the structure of employees changed in the period after accession to the European Union? 2.1 The level of occupational activity The number of persons who are professionally active depends on the adopted definition. According to the LSF, the category of professionally active persons includes working persons aged 15+ and the unemployed. For the purpose of this survey, a category of professionally active persons aged was created which includes working persons and the unemployed aged The shaping of the number of professionally active persons in the years in two age categories (15+ and 15-64) was presented on the charts below. Chart 1. Population of Poland in two age groups population 15+ population Chart 2. Number of professionally active persons according to two age groups professionally active 15+ professionally active Source: own study on the basis of the LFS database. The number of professionally active persons depends on the number of persons able to work, thus, in order to make comparisons concerning the level of activity, the professional activity rate is given (the share of professionally active persons in the total number of persons from the specific age group - in this case 15-64). Such rate indicates the number of persons aged who are professionally active, that is, who work or are unemployed. Chart 3. Professional activity rate among persons aged y = x Source: own study on the basis of the LFS database. The equation of the tendency line allows for a statement that the professional activity rate was dropping from year to year by 0.003, that is by 0.3 percentage point on average. 5 In Poland the difference between employees aged 15+ and is about 1,5-2,8%. 20

21 In the years the professional activity rate among the Polish people aged was dropping from year to year by 0.3 percentage point on average. When analysing the shaping of this rate in the two periods before and after accession it should be noted that the pace of decline in the professional activity rate after accession to the European Union was slower. In 2008 the highest professional activity rate was reported in the Mazowieckie voivodeship, while the lowest in the Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship. Table 1. Value of the professional activity rate according to voivodeships (NUTSII regions) Dolnośląskie Kujawsko-pomorskie Lubelskie Lubuskie Łódzkie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Opolskie Podkarpackie Podlaskie Pomorskie Śląskie Świętokrzyskie Warmińsko-mazurskie Wielkopolskie Zachodniopomorskie Source: own study on the basis of the LFS database. In order to maintain consistency with other cross-sections generated from the LFS, we present the data estimated on the basis of the LFS questionnaires, even if the given cross-section is available in other sources of data (e.g. in Eurostat). This may cause minimum differences in the presented values. The biggest declines in the number of professionally active persons were reported in the Zachodniopomorskie, Kujawsko-pomorskie and Podlaskie voivodeships. Among few voivodeships with considerable increase in the number of professionally active persons are the Śląskie and Mazowieckie voivodeships. 6 6 The changes in the number of professionally active persons are not a good measure of the level of professional activity since they may result from demographic tendencies. If the pace of decline in the number of professionally active persons aged is similar to the pace of decline in the total number of persons aged 15-64, then the changes of the professional activity rate amount to zero. For instance, in the Wielkopolskie voivodeship, the decline in the number of professionally active persons amounting to 1.2 percent on average, was, from year to year, accompanied with the decline in the total number of population aged by 0.6 percent and this results in the pace of changes in the professional activity rate amounting to -0.6 percent. When assessing voivodeships according to such measure, it should be noted that the greatest declines in the professional activity were observed in the Zachodniopomorskie Voivodeship (-1.1 percent) and then the average annual decline amounting to approx. 0.8 percent was reported in the Podlaskie, Kujawsko-pomorskie, Warmińsko-mazurskie and Podkarpackie voivodeships. The only exception was the Świętokrzyskie voivodeship with the increase in the level of activity by 0.2 percent, which was possible due to the fact that the pace of increase in the number of professionally active persons was higher than the pace of increase in the number of population aged

22 Table 2.. The average annual pace (as percentage) of changes in the number of professionally active persons, the total number of population and the professional activity rate of the Polish persons. Professionally active persons aged15-64 Population aged Professional activity rate Dolnośląskie -0,1% 0,4% -0,6% Kujawsko-pomorskie -2,3% -1,5% -0,8% Lubelskie -0,1% 0,5% -0,5% Lubuskie 0,2% 0,7% -0,4% Łódzkie 0,1% 0,7% -0,5% Małopolskie -0,4% 0,1% -0,5% Mazowieckie 1,1% 1,3% -0,2% Opolskie -1,5% -1,0% -0,6% Podkarpackie 0,3% 1,0% -0,8% Podlaskie -1,9% -1,0% -0,8% Pomorskie -0,3% 0,2% -0,5% Śląskie 1,4% 1,4% 0,0% Świętokrzyskie 0,5% 0,3% 0,2% Warmińsko-mazurskie -0,5% 0,3% -0,8% Wielkopolskie -1,2% -0,6% -0,6% Zachodniopomorskie -2,3% -1,1% -1,1% POLSKA -0,1% 0,3% -0,5% Source: own study on the basis of LFS database. Comparison of the changes of the professional activity rate in the two studied subperiods before accession ( ) and after accession ( ) enables to distinguish those voivodeships in which the decline of the rate intensified after accession to the European Union (e.g. the Kujawsko-pomorskie, Małopolskie, Wielkopolskie voivodeships) and those in which such decline was lower (e.g. the Podlaskie, Opolskie, Łódzkie voivodeships). The Świętokrzyskie voivodeship was a special case, since the change of the professional activity rate was positive in the period after accession to the European Union, similarly as the Mazowieckie voivodeship where this change was positive in the studied subperiods. Table 3. Average changes of the professional activity rate in the two studied subperiods (in percentage points) Dolnośląskie -0,68-0,29 Kujawsko-pomorskie 0,08-1,18 Lubelskie -0,02-0,29 Lubuskie -0,46-0,64 Łódzkie -0,49-0,18 Małopolskie -0,21-0,58 Mazowieckie 0,04 0,18 Opolskie -1,03-0,47 Podkarpackie -0,32 0,01 Podlaskie -1,08-0,45 Pomorskie -0,17-0,20 Śląskie -0,23-0,21 Świętokrzyskie -1,24 0,95 Warmińsko-mazurskie -0,50-0,53 Wielkopolskie -0,30-0,67 Zachodniopomorskie -1,09-1,12 Source: own calculations on the basis of LFS database. 2.2 Unemployed persons and long-term unemployed persons In the years a clear division could be observed in Poland in terms of unemployment, into two subperiods: increase of the unemployment rate until 2002 and its decline firstly, at a slow pace and since 2005 an intensive decline. Similar tendencies may be observed in case of the long-term unemployment rate and very long-term unemployment rate. The data from the voivodeships confirm countrywide tendencies: since 2003 the unemployment rate has declined in the majority of voivodeships, with the most intensive decline in the Pomorskie, Śląskie and Warmińsko-mazurskie voivodeships while the smallest changes were reported in the Lubelskie, Świętokrzyskie and Podkarpackie voivodeships. 22

23 Chart 4. The unemployment rate in Poland in three selected years Source: own study on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. In case of the long-term unemployment rate, the highest share in the total number of unemployed persons in the period before accession to the European Union concerned the Podkarpackie voivodeship it was also the voivodeship which improved this condition to the greatest extent. All voivodeships, apart from the Wielkopolskie voivodeship, observed a decline in the share of longterm unemployed persons in the studied period. Chart 5. Share of long-term unemployed persons in three studied periods Source: own study on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. 2.3 Employment rates In accordance with the Lisbon Strategy, success in the context of the labour market is measured by high employment rate, which in 2010 should account for 70% in EU Member States, rather than by the low unemployment rate. The NDP (2003) assumed the 2006 rate of employment at 54 to 55%. The actual 2006 employment rate for persons aged 15 to 64 was 54.5%, therefore it can be stated that the NDP objectives have been achieved in this respect. In the analysed period, the employment rate (reflecting the share of the employed in total population of specific age) was at first decreasing ( ), to rise up to 59% ( ), i.e. 59 out of 100 persons aged 15 to 64 were employed. After the accession to the EU, the trends in the employment rate were positive. In years , the employment rate was decreasing at the rate of 1.33 percentage point (with 1.66 for men and 1.01 for women), while between 2004 and 2008, it was rising at the rate of 1.86 percentage point (with 2.24 for men and 1.56 for women). 23

24 Chart 6.. Employment rate for persons aged Chart 7. Employment rate for persons aged total men women 15+ total 15+ men 15+ women Source: own study on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. Employment rates in respective voivodeships, similarly to the developments at the national level, were rising after the accession and decreasing before the accession. 7 In 2008, the highest employment rates were reported in the Mazowieckie voivodeship (the rate higher by 20% than the national average) and Wielkopolskie voivodeship (+15%). The lowest employment rate among young people was reported in 2008 by the Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship. Table 4. Employment rates in voivodeships (NUTSII regions), Dolnośląskie Kujawsko-pomorskie Lubelskie Lubuskie Łódzkie Małopolskie Mazowieckie Opolskie Podkarpackie Podlaskie Pomorskie Śląskie Świętokrzyskie Warmińsko-mazurskie Wielkopolskie Zachodniopomorskie POLAND Source: own calculations on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. In order to compare the developments on labour markets in respective voivodeships, the changes in employment rates in per cent, broken down by gender and age, have been calculated with regard to The analysis shows that the most significant developments have been reported in the youngest groups of the employed, where in 2008 the share of the employed persons was higher by 40% than in 2003 at the national level. These developments differ depending on the voivodeship: from Świętokrzyskie voivodeship, where the share of the employed persons aged 15 to 24 has increased by 97%, to Lubelskie voivodeship, where this increase accounted for mere 6% (the Lubelskie voivodeship has witnessed relatively least significant changes in all age groups). 7 Although the recovery on the labour market did not occur simultaneously in all voivodeships: the first voivodeships where it could be observed were the Wielkopolskie, Zachodniopomorskie and Warmińsko-mazurskie (already in 2003). In most voivodeships (Śląskie, Podlaskie, Mazowieckie, Opolskie, Małopolskie, Łódzkie, Lubuskie and Dolnośląskie) the improvement was reported in the year of accession to the EU. Świętokrzyskie, Pomorskie, Podkarpackie, Lubelskie and Kujawsko-pomorskie voivodeships reacted last to the recovery on the labour market (in 2005). 24

25 In general, the smaller the changes in the employment rate, the higher the age of the analysed group: among persons aged 55 to 64, the change was only 10% for the entire country and it was also diversified, from the Lubuskie voivodeship (+39%) to Mazowieckie, Podlaskie and Wielkopolskie voivodeships, where the changes were slightly negative. Table 5. Percentage changes in the employment rate in 2008 in different age groups (2003=100) Dolnośląskie 23% 22% 22% 34% 17% 17% 38% 53% Kujawsko-pomorskie 10% 10% 11% 13% 12% 7% 24% 38% Lubelskie 5% 6% 7% 5% 9% 4% 9% 6% Lubuskie 22% 24% 22% 39% 20% 24% 35% 48% Łódzkie 16% 15% 15% 16% 9% 11% 26% 26% Małopolskie 9% 13% 12% 8% 11% 9% 24% 18% Mazowieckie 15% 14% 12% -2% 12% 12% 31% 47% Opolskie 15% 16% 15% 12% 11% 16% 36% 56% Podkarpackie 9% 11% 9% 0% 8% 9% 33% 42% Podlaskie 12% 14% 14% -4% 13% 12% 34% 49% Pomorskie 16% 18% 18% 17% 18% 12% 34% 48% Śląskie 20% 19% 17% 26% 12% 17% 39% 58% Świętokrzyskie 23% 22% 21% 18% 13% 22% 46% 97% Warmińsko-mazurskie 16% 18% 18% 25% 13% 18% 35% 39% Wielkopolskie 9% 11% 12% -1% 11% 10% 16% 25% Zachodniopomorskie 16% 17% 17% 12% 14% 23% 31% 48% POLAND 15% 15% 15% 10% 12% 13% 30% 40% Source: own calculations on the basis of the Regional Data Bank Employment rates broken down by age and gender Employment rates for women and men differ significantly: the share of employed women is on average lower by 25% than the share of men. Although the rate for men assumed for 2013 has been almost achieved as soon as in 2008 (66.3), employment rates for women still remain far from those assumed in the strategic documents. Chart 8.. Employment rates broken down by gender and age groups total males females total males females total males females total males females 25

26 total 50+ males 50+ females total males females total males females 18-59/64 total 18-59/64 males 18-59/64 females Source: own study on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. As it can be observed on the above charts, employment rates for women are much lower in each analysed age group. The relatively least significant differences between employment rates can be noted in the age group, where the share of employed men is on average higher by only 11% than the share of women. However, the share of employed men in productive age (18-59/64) is higher by 18% than the share of women. The most significant differences can be observed among the oldest employees, i.e. 50+ and 55-64, where the share of employed men is higher by 65% and 69%, respectively, than the share of women see Table 6. 8 Table 6. Employment rate quotients for men and women, demonstrating the preponderance of the share of employed men over the share of employed women age group average / Source: own calculations on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. 8 This does not result from the fact that retirement age for women is lower than the retirement age for men. If we calculated employment rates for the age group, we would achieve the prevalence of the employment rate for men similar to the one in Table 6 (specifically, 1.77). For the age group, this rate amounts to the average

27 2.4 The employed Employment structure in three economic sectors One of the symptoms of increased development and innovativeness of economies is the reduction of the share of persons employed in agriculture, accompanied by increased employment in services. The structure of the employed by the three sectors of the economy 9 is one of the basic indicators of the structure of economy monitored as part of the overall objective of the National Development Strategy (NDS). In this respect, Polish economy needs to cover great distance to catch up with other EU Member States. 10 One of the premises of the NDS is to lower the share of employed in agriculture and to increase the share of persons working in services and these changes may be observed both nation-wide and in the majority of Polish voivodeships. In 2008 the share of employed in agricultural, industrial and services sector was respectively 14%, 32% and 54% and the structure of working persons assumed for the year 2006 in the National Development Programme was 17.5%, 30.5% and 52%. Table 7 shows that these levels have been achieved or even exceeded. The changes that have taken place in the employment structure consist mostly of decreases in the number of employed in agriculture and an increase of employment in services and they reflect the objectives set in this area in the NDS. Table 7. The number and structure of the employed aged 15+ in three main sectors of the economy Total agriculture industry services % agriculture % industry % services ,757 2,666 4,623 7,467 18% 31% 51% ,526 2,727 4,481 7,318 19% 31% 50% ,207 2,720 4,331 7,155 19% 30% 50% ,782 2,663 3,947 7,170 19% 29% 52% ,617 2,509 3,892 7,216 18% 29% 53% ,795 2,483 3,976 7,334 18% 29% 53% ,116 2,452 4,127 7,531 17% 29% 53% ,594 2,304 4,374 7,912 16% 30% 54% ,241 2,247 4,681 8,309 15% 31% 55% ,800 2,206 5,036 8,549 14% 32% 54% Source: own study on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. The relatively most significant developments have occurred in agriculture, where the share of the employed has been systematically decreasing in Poland since the systemic transformation, which is characteristic for all voivodeships, including those considered typically agricultural. At the national level, in years the share of the employed in agriculture has decreased from 19% to 14%. 11. Regions with the highest share of persons employed in agriculture (over 20%) in Poland are the Lubelskie (30%), Podlaskie (27%), Świętokrzyskie (25%) and Podkarpackie (23%) voivodeships. 12 Voivodeships with the lowest employment rate in agriculture (below 10%) are the Śląskie (3%), Zachodniopomorskie (6%), Dolnośląskie (7%), Pomorskie (8%) and Lubuskie (9%) voivodeships. It should be pointed out that, despite considerable changes in years , the range of voivodeships in this respect did not change: typically agricultural voivodeships (marked 9 In accordance with the three-sector concept of economic structure (formulated by Fisher, Clark, Fourasti), increased development and modernity of economies result in an increased share of employment in services rather than in industry or agriculture. This concept stipulates that the higher share of employment in services and the lower share of employment in agriculture, the higher level of development of the analysed economy (or region). 10 At the moment of accession to the EU, Poland had one of the highest shares of persons employed in agriculture (18%), which was the double of the EU average. 11 In accordance with the three-sector concept of economic development, decreased share of the employed in agriculture is a positive symptom of development. This fact was reflected in Poland s startegic documents, where a considerable drop in the share of the employed on agriculture was assumed. To date, the decreases in this sector have corresponded to the assumed levels see indicators at 12 Data in brackets refer to the quarterly average for

28 Services Industry Agriculture The impact of cohesion policy on the level and quality of employment in Poland with darkest colour on the first three maps) remained as such throughout the entire period of the analysis. 13 The share of persons employed in industry has been slightly changing. Little has changed among voivodeships employing the highest and the lowest number of employees in this sector (the voivodeships have been marked with the darkest and the lightest colour, respectively, on the maps below): Wielkopolskie voivodeship has joined the group of voivodeships with the highest share of the employed in industry, while Świętokrzyskie voivodeship no more can be taken into account among voivodeships with the lowest share of persons employed in industry. In the case of services, throughout the analysed period, the highest share of persons employed was in Zachodniopomorskie and Pomorskie voivodeships. Warmińsko-mazurskie and Dolnośląskie voivodeships, having high share of the employed in services as of 1999, in 2008 were overtaken by Śląskie and Mazowieckie voivodeships. Map 1. Changes in the structure of the employed in three selected years Source: own study on the basis of the Regional Data Bank. 13 The Mazowieckie voivodeship, which reduced the share of the employed in agriculture so much that it rose from the second quartile to the fourth, is an exception here. 28