Startups and Elephants
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1 Startups and Elephants Using System Dynamics to Support Startups, Stimulate the Economy and Create More Jobs Fady Saad November 2013
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3 A viable system is a system that is able to maintain its own separate existence Stafford Beer
4 *Adizes, I. (1999). Managing Corporate Lifecycles. New York: Prentice Hall Press.
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6 Product Development (Features) PD/Phase Out Engineering Effort Service Quality Product Attractiveness Value Proposition People (Employees) Hiring/Turnover Core Team Strength Job Attractiveness Burnout Psych. Ownership Employees Productivity Sales & Marketing (Customers) Sales/Dissatisfaction Sales Effort Word of Mouth Pricing Unit Cost Financials ($) Revenues Net Income External Funding Firm Valuation Financial Compensation Founders/Employee s % EShip Ecosystem Higher Ed & Training Competition Business Sophistication Fear of Failure Media Infrastructure Institutions Technological Readiness RD Innovation Market Size Fin. Market Macro Econ Labor Market Efficiency
7 Institutions (Public/Private) Higher Education & Training Competition (Domestic/Foreign) Labor Market Efficiency <Technological Readiness> <Infrastructure> R&D Innovation Business Sophistication Average Productivity Competitor Feature to Price Ratio Competitor's Value Proposition Product Development Features Sophistication Engineering Effort Product Features Employee Productivity Effect of Job Attractiveness on Prod Turnover Infrastructure Features Phase Out Engineer Proportion Value Propositions Effect of Infrastructure Provided Service Human Resources Connections Experience Participation Job Attractiveness Cohesion Core Team Strength Reference Diversity Compensation Complementary Fear of Faliure <Effect of Job Attractiveness> Average Turnover Perception Period Burnout Service Quality Sales Effort Hiring <Desired Headcount Growth> Financial Compensation Psychological Ownership Desired Gross Margin Time to Hire Pricing Product Attractiveness Effect of Job Attractiveness Period Adjustment 2 Effect of Participation Service Time Required Service Average Hiring Time Word Of Mouth <Total Salaries> <Engineer Proportion> <Total Salaries> Employees' Net Worth Employees' Ownership Desired Headcount Growth Total Salaries Unit Cost Effect of Product Attractiveness Customer Acquisition Cycle Sales Revenues Headcount Growth Founders' Ownership Profit Sharing Founders' Net Worth Sales Avergae Investment switch funding Avergae Salary Salary Budget Period Adjustment 1 Unit Completion Potential Prospects Customers <Pricing> Churn Rate Dissatisfaction Market Size (Domestic/Foreign) COGS Service Revenue Other Costs Revenues Costs Cash Firm Valuation Service Frequency External Funding Net Income Forecasted Revenues <Market Size (Domestic/Foreign)> Investors Net Worth Forecasted Growth Rate Technological Readiness Macroeconomic Environment <Core Team Strength> Valuation Multiplier Media Attention <Institutions (Public/Private)> Financial Market Development <External Funding>
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10 Results Startup Dynamics; US vs. Egypt
11 Results 6 Critical Ecosystem Factors Job Attractiveness Sensitivity Analysis Firm Valuation (in $M) Sensitivity Analysis
12 Looking at the Future A Scenario Planning Tool for Entrepreneurs/Funders A Design & Analysis Tool for Policy Makers Refinement & Expansion of the Model
13 Fady Saad Cofounder & CEO Full thesis:
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