2015 outlook paper oil and gas sector

Transcription

1 OUTLOOK 2015 outlook paper oil and gas sector From its recent peak of $115 a barrel, the Brent crude oil price had collapsed to a level just below the $50 mark by late January. Such a dramatic fall has not been seen since 2008/09 when the price fell from $147 to $34 a barrel, largely in response to a collapse in demand due to the financial economic crisis. chris shennan Although this more recent fall started with concerns over slower growth prospects in China and sluggishness in the Eurozone, its acceleration owes more to concerns over the supply position. Specifically, the conscious decision of OPEC, and Saudi Arabia in particular, to continue production plans even in the face of a softer price environment. This sharp fall is effectively the result of a price war, an attempt to alter some of the fundamental elements of the supply landscape in order to provide a stronger competitive position for OPEC members in the longer term. In the face of this war, almost all producers are suffering with prices well below the level they require to generate broader government spending in their economy (Figure 1). The impact to those at the higher end of the price scale is potentially hugely damaging. Russia derives 40 per cent of its revenue from hydrocarbon activities and the price will potentially drive it into deep recession. Venezuela depends on oil to fulfil 95 per cent of its export revenue at $97 a barrel. A default on its debt will have major implications for the global economy. For its 2015 budget, the Malaysian government, which generates 30 per cent of its revenue from the sector, assumed a price of $105. This has caused a shortfall of over 20 billion ringgits ($5.5 billion) 1, just over half of which is closed by reducing oil subsidies. In the US, where production in fracking has increased output from 5 million bbl/d to 8.5 million bbl/d since 2008 (bringing with it mass job creation) the impact of the fall may hit the real economy soon. So in volatile environment where prices may fall further before a potential, slow recovery later in the year what are the key people issues on the agenda of industry executives, and how should they respond? 1

2 the structure ends up built for comfort more than for efficiency Figure 1: Breakeven oil prices for various oil exporting Governments (Brent equivalent prices) $58 $78 $78 $90 $105 $113 $115 $130 KUWaiT QaTar KSa Uae MaLaYSia nigeria russia iran establishing a healthy organisation Inevitably in such times, organisations look to re-assess their structures. Too often, we see decisions made on gut instinct resulting in across the board reductions. The more rational approach is to assess where efficiencies and effectiveness gains are possible through precise surgery. In times of high oil prices, organisations allow a greater focus on maintaining talent structures than the needs of pure efficiency. Their focus is not simply in meeting new salary expectations, but also in building more detailed career ladders and blurring personal and actual job grades. When the price is strong, the emphasis changes from paying for the demonstration of skills and capabilities to simply paying for their acquisition. The structure ends up built for comfort more than for efficiency. This relaxed tendency shows itself in a number of ways. Firstly, the average span of people control for managers in the organisation reduces, meaning more managers are needed (adding cost) and more layers are required (slowing the speed of communication). Take for example an organisation where the average manager has four direct reports. A structure with 200 frontline supervisors would require 50 next level managers and 68 managers in total with four layers to the top. Our all industry average would indicate that a structure this size should only have 41 managers and three levels to the top. (See Figure 2) In an even leaner structure, it s possible to reduce management to the early 30s meaning less costs, quicker decisions and more role stretch. 2

3 we still give too much accountability but not authority. at best this leads to inefficiencies, but at worst it erodes the performance culture because people focus on the wrong things Figure 2: Span of people control effect on managerial layers and number of managers Based on an organisation with 200 frontline supervisors. AVERAGE SPAN NUMBER OF LAYERS NUMBER OF MANAGERS Secondly there is the issue of who s reporting into whom in the first place. Here, people and roles tend to merge. Having defined what the line manager is accountable for, organisations have to assess the relative contribution of their direct reports. They can divide responsibilities narrowly amongst many or broadly among few. The key is to avoid replicating exactly the same skills and experience that exist within the boss, in his subordinates. So, if one role is viewed either as a natural successor or is strategically critical to the team, our database of organisational efficiency is clear that the rest must be several steps away. Yet too often, people ignore this logic in order to placate personal agendas. Comparing teams against internal and external benchmarks will soon highlight anomalies and demonstrate where to take action. Finally, it s essential that decision making responsibilities are clearly defined and absolutely clear. People need to understand when they should make decisions and have the freedom to do so. Matrix structures can aid the decision making process but too often we see badly designed ones building in cost without clarity. As one senior oil executive pointed out We still give too much accountability but not authority. At best this leads to inefficiencies, but at worst it erodes the performance culture because people focus on the wrong things. the urge to merge will grow A collapse in oil prices in the early 1980 s and again in the late 1990 s generated a wave of industry consolidation. BP acquired Amoco, Exxon merged with Mobil and Chevron purchased Texaco. Data from the USA in January 2015 indicated 1,800 active oil and gas rigs, the lowest in over a year and a clear indication of falling producer confidence. The conditions are in place for another round. We may see some of the larger players look at currently depressed stock prices as an opportunity to boost their production and reserves. However, oil field services businesses will probably feel the pain first, and those with stretched balance sheets may find themselves forced into a defensive sale or merger. December s acquisition of Baker Hughes by Haliburton for $34.6 billion is a spectacular example of the latter, as was Technip s offer to purchase CGG in the same month. 3

4 a collapse in oil prices in the early 1980 s and again in the late 1990 s generated a wave of industry consolidation. The conditions are in place for another round Most 90-day deal implementation plans aim to achieve quick wins by integrating the hardwiring the tangible assets such as IT, financial systems and property portfolios. Yet as history shows us, most of these acquisitions will fail to achieve their original objectives, often because parties tend to underplay or not fully understand the intangible assets of people, culture, structure and capability. We know people make the difference and getting your people strategy right during a merger positions your organisation to achieve its objectives. two factors that help you get it right 1. Aligning and integrating tangible and intangible assets. Intangibles include: organisational capital culture, agility, structure, communication and team working relational capital brand, client loyalty and internal as well as external networks human capital leadership capability, workforce engagement and productivity 2. The impact of leadership When the parties review leadership capability and put in place a new top team quickly, mergers run more smoothly. We work with clients on several key steps to make sure they re not neglecting the intangibles. We help them: pay for today, with an eye on tomorrow Although it is too early to provide definitive trends for 2015, there is some evidence of reduced pay pressures in response to current uncertainties. In the UK, a recent Hay Group survey within the oil services field indicated that 2015 planned pay increases; pitched at five per cent just two months ago, have since fallen to three per cent. Almost half of those surveyed said they would be reducing rates for contractors and a similar number will be reviewing their bonus schemes. BP has gone one step further and has announced a global pay freeze for all its 84,000 employees 2. Plans like these need to be handled with sensitivity because salary has a strong emotional as well as an immediate practical relevance for employees. We advise that companies ensure a clear link to how reward fits into the broader health and direction of the organisation. It is also the right time to re-assess what your employees really value in their total reward offer. Often there s potential that some realignment of benefits may enhance, not reduce, the perceived value to your people. If you are forced to reduce contractor or expatriate staff, handle with the same care and sensitivity as you would regular employees. It sends the right message to all staff on your attitudes to employees. And don t forget, you may want them back before the end of the year! Build an enhanced operating model and organisational structure aligned to new strategic objectives Understand the desired new culture and what this means in terms of changes to core people processes Clarify accountabilities and promote coherence across functions Understand how changes to structure translate into new role relativities and assess reward implications Assess leadership capability and quickly identify best fit for key roles 4

5 salary has a strong emotional as well as an immediate practical relevance for employees further information: If you d like to know how Hay Group can help you face your people challenges, please contact your local office through: To discuss the issues raised in this paper please contact: Chris Shennan Global sector leader oil and gas E: chris.shennan@haygroup.com Training costs will also come under scrutiny and this may suggest a lower investment in employee development. Instead of across the board reductions, focus training priorities on critical areas for the business. Do more with less by looking for creative ways to train at lower cost and sustain a learning environment through internal mentoring, coaching and workshops. Target training to the strategic objectives of the organisation and communicate the learning value at all times. restraint and engagement: the combination is possible! Falling prices and cancelled projects; this unwelcome combination is starting to take hold in many parts of the world. In such an environment, it is assumed that falling staff engagement is the next trend to emerge. This doesn t have to be the case. This is the time when leaders and managers really earn their stripes; steady the ship in times of uncertainty so that the upturn, when it occurs, can begin at full speed. The experience of the price fall provides clues as to how companies can deliver measured cost savings and increased levels of employee engagement. The message therefore is engage now to retain later. To protect your engagement capital, communication is key. However much time you spent communicating with employees when the oil price was above $80, double it when the price is below $60. Communication should be honest, regular, and focused on what really matters. Do not sugar coat any changes. Avoid dishonest or inaccurate statements. Instead, talk about how any proposed changes will help equip the organisation to manage the current environment. Employees want and need to know what is required of them and to feel actively involved in helping the organisation through these times. Don t overlook the simple things: a timely and deserved personal thank you and well done for specific achievements goes a long way in building morale. Remember it s your engagement capital that is at stake and it can t be bought back easily when times get better. In such a turbulent environment, oil and gas companies face a range of complex people challenges. Potential restructuring and/or merging, how to engage people and how to manage their pay are at the top of the list. Facing lower revenue, it can be tempting to simply slash costs wherever possible and batten down the hatches until things become more comfortable. But it is those who take a measured, focused approach to these challenges who will not only survive the dip but also be in the best position to grasp future opportunities with both hands when they emerge. 1 Reuters: 2 The Guardian: w b blog.haygroup.com We believe that it s people who make change happen. So, while we operate on a global scale, we keep the individual at the very centre of our thinking. We re world-sized: 4,000 employees, 87 offices, 49 countries. We draw on management data from over 125 national centres. We work alongside more than 8,000 organisations in the private, public and not-for-profit sectors, across every major industry, in virtually every corner of the earth. We re focused: on people who they are, why they do what they do, and how they can be inspired and enabled to perform better at every level. Confident of the knowledge and methods we ve originated over 70 years in business, we remain enthusiastic about new ideas that prove their worth. We transform: we help managers to become leaders, and leaders to perfect their skills. Because when people are at their best, your strategic vision is ready to grow into business reality Hay Group. All rights reserved.