Spatial Sorting. September, Abstract

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1 Spatial Sorting Jan Eeckhout, Roberto Pinheiro and Kurt Schmidheiny September, 2011 Abstract We investigate the role of sorting and skill mobility across cities. We propose a general equilibrium model of location choice by heterogeneously skilled workers, and consider different degrees of complementarities between the skills of workers. The nature of the complementarities determines the equilibrium skill distribution across cities. We prove that with extreme-skill complementarity, the skill distribution has fatter tails in large cities second-order stochastic dominance); with top-skill complementarity, there is first-order stochastic dominance. Using the model to back out skills from wage and house price data, we find robust evidence of fat tails in large cities. Big cities have big inequality. This pattern of spatial sorting is consistent with extreme-skill complementarity: the productivity of the high skilled is enhanced by the providers of low skilled services. Keywords. Urban Economics. Price-Theoretic Measure of Skills. Population dynamics. City Size. Matching theory. Sorting. Complementarity. General equilibrium. Wage distribution. We are grateful to numerous colleagues for insightful comments. We also benefitted from the feedback of many seminar audiences. Eeckhout gratefully acknowledges support by the ERC, Grant University College London and UPF, jan.eeckhout@ucl.ac.uk. University of Colorado, Roberto.Pinheiro@colorado.edu. Department of Economics, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, kurt.schmidheiny@upf.edu.

2 If I can make it there I ll make it anywhere... Frank Sinatra New York, New York) Rock Bottom, yeah I see you, all my Detroit people Eminem Welcome 2 Detroit) 1 Introduction New York, NY. Making it there rather than in Akron, OH is the ultimate aim of many professionals. And this is true for many trades and skills: artists, musicians, advertising and media professional, consultants, lawyers, financiers,... While there are certainly notable exceptions the IT sector comes to mind), most people can provide casual evidence that the skill level in the top percentiles of NY and large cities in general is higher than anywhere else. There is certainly ample evidence of a city-size wage premium. Yet the pattern of sorting of both the skilled and the unskilled across different size cities is less clear. In this paper we theoretically address the sorting decision of workers over the entire range of skills, including the medium and low skilled. Even if they are highly visible, cities are not just populated by superstars and high earning professionals. The objective of the theory is to distinguish which of two hypotheses dominates, each stressing the degree of complementarity in inputs of different skill groups. A first hypothesis is whether the superstars attract other high skilled people? For example, under this hypothesis the best lawyers are more productive when surrounded by top legal assistants, or the cancer surgeons at Sloan Kettering in NY work best with top residents and top nurses, whereas the General Practitioners with fewer years of training and fellowships collaborate with less trained nurses and assistants. We refer to this hypothesis as Top-Skill Complementarity. A second hypothesis posits that high skilled workers who tend to move to large cities boost their productivity most with low skilled services. While the high skilled professional may well work with other high skilled collaborators, what dominates in the aggregate is that she has a disproportionately high productivity increase from the presence of low skilled services. Given the value of her time, at her job she hires more low skilled administrative help, other services sales, legal, catering...) and at home she employs help in the household, child care and schooling. We label this hypothesis as Extreme-Skill Complementarity. Realistically, both degrees of complementarity are present when analyzing the data. The objective is to use the guidance of the theory to investigate which of these dominates. We build a General Equilibrium model of city choice by agents with heterogeneous skills that allows for different degrees of complementarities between skills. Citizens earn a living based on a competitive wage, and under perfect mobility, their location choice will make them indifferent between consumption-housing bundles, and therefore between different wage-house price pairs across cities. Wages are generated by perfectly mobile firms that compete for labor and that have access to a city-specific technology summarized by that city s total factor productivity TFP). Our theory generates a pattern of sorting that does not involve perfect segregation of skills across cities where either all high skilled go to the large cities and the low skilled to the small cities. Consistent with 1

3 reality, in our model cities attract all skill types, yet to a varying extent. The technology is a variation on the standard Constant Elasticity of Substitution CES) production function, with the added feature of varying degrees of complementarities. The technology values higher skills, but the marginal product of labor is decreasing in the number of workers hired of that skill level. As a result, given a vector of wages, firms want to hire a combination of different skills. Since there is a one-to-one relationship between wages and skills within each city, we can use revealed preference choices of location and wages paid to back out skills from the theory. Our measure of skills is thus very much a price-theoretic measure that includes both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. The main theoretical contribution is to precisely characterize how the induced equilibrium skill distribution varies across cities under the different degrees of complementarities. In particular, we prove that under Extreme-Skill Complementarity, the equilibrium skill distribution has fatter tails in large cities than in small cities. That is, there is Second-Order Stochastic Dominance. The large cities disproportionately attracts both high and low skilled workers. Instead, under Top-Skill Complementarity, the equilibrium skill distribution First-Order Stochastically Dominates. In other words, at any point in the distribution, the cumulative fraction of high skilled is always higher in large cities. We further extend the model to allow for endogenous agglomeration externalities and find that despite having access to ex ante identical technologies and externalities, in equilibrium cities differ in size. As more citizens move into a given city, productivity and therefore equilibrium prices adjust such that one city has a competitive advantage over the other city. In addition, in the presence of agglomeration externalities the cities have the same distributional properties as in the case of exogenous TFP differences: second-order stochastic dominance under extreme-skill complementarities, first-order stochastic dominance under topskill complementarities. Like with exogenous TFP, the size of the city is increasing with TFP and wages are higher in larger cities, consistent with the observed city-size wage premium. Firms in large cities are more productive and can attract workers paying higher wages. In equilibrium, labor demand will also push up house prices. The citizens location decision will equalize utility and a worker of a given skill will be indifferent between a high wage, high house price city and a low wage, low house price city. Guided by the theory to back out the skill distribution, we establish a robust empirical fact: big cities, big inequality. Larger cities have fatter tails in the skill distribution and disproportionately attract both higher and lower skilled agents. For example, in New York city not only is there a huge high skill contingent in Manhattan, there are also disproportionately many low skilled living in the South Bronx and Newark. Similarly, while Detroit has disproportionately many low skilled individuals and a reputation for inner city poverty, it also disproportionately attracts high skilled individuals, many of whom live in the wealthy neighborhood of Bloomfield Hills. In that respect, large cities like New York and Detroit are more similar to each other than they are to small cities. We show that there is a systematic pattern of fat tails in the skill distribution of large cities. To our knowledge, this pattern of spatial sorting has not been documented in the literature. Moreover, using the theory, this finding sheds light on the nature of the underlying technology: the fat tails result is consistent with Extreme-Skill Complementarity. 2

4 Our empirical analysis documents the systematic sorting pattern that leads to fat tails in large cities. From the theory we construct a price-theoretic measure of skills, based on revealed preference location choices given wages and house prices. Consider first the distribution of wages. The city-size wage premium is well documented. For example, the gap between average wages in the smallest cities in our sample with a population around 160,000, more than 100 times smaller than New York) and the largest cities is 25%. In Figure 1.A, we plot a kernel of the wage distribution of those living in all cities larger than 2.5 million inhabitants and that of those in cities smaller than one million inhabitants. Not only are average wages higher, there is a clear first-order stochastic dominance relation. At all wage levels, more people earn less in small cities than in large cities. This clearly indicates that there is a city-size wage premium across the board. However, larger cities tend to be more expensive to live, so in order to be able to compare skill distributions, we need to adjust for house prices. Identical agents will make a location choice based on the utility obtained, which depends both on wages and the cost of housing. Indifference for identical agents will therefore require equalizing differences. We use homothetic preferences to adjust for housing consumption and construct a house price index based on a hedonic regression to calculate the difference in housing values across cities. From the theory, the resulting distribution of utilities is therefore isomorphic to the distribution of skills in a world with full mobility and no market frictions. Figure 1.B displays the kernel of the skill distribution. Our main finding is that the skill distribution in larger cities has fatter tails both at the top and at the bottom of the distribution. Large cities disproportionately attract more skilled and more unskilled workers. This systematic pattern of spatial sorting is extremely robust as we document in the robustness and discussion sections: we use direct measures of skills the observable part of skills as measured by educational attainment and occupation) and control for industry selection, we investigate the role of migration, we consider different definitions of large versus small cities, we use three different data sources for local housing values, and we include local price differences in consumption goods. A key feature of our approach is the price-theoretic measure of skills. This is in contrast to the common approach of using observable skills such as years of education or test scores. Not only do observables explain a mere fraction of skills, observed skill categories are typically very coarse. In the literature, skills are often partitioned into two classes which allows for limited inference about how distributions vary across locations. Once we allow for many skill classes using the wage based measure, we are able to characterize a smooth distributions of skills. 2 Related Literature The model we propose builds on the urban location model in Eeckhout 2004) and Davis and Ortalo-Magné 2009) see also Guerrieri, Hartley, and Hurst 2011) who augment the model with local externalities) where identical citizens who have preferences over consumption and housing choose a city in order to 3

5 pdf pdf log wage population < 1m > 2.5m log utility population < 1m > 2.5m Figure 1: A. Wage distribution for small and large cities; B. Skill distribution for small and large cities; maximize utility and explain expenditure shares and population dynamics see also Gabaix 1999)). Because of differences in productivity across cities, wages differ and house prices adjust in function of the population size of the city. Productivity differences are due to TFP and agglomeration effects. Given perfect mobility and identical agents, utility equalizes across cities. Our main innovation over the existing model is the introduction of heterogeneity in the inputs of production skills) which gives rise to a distribution of skills within the city. This necessary to meaningfully address sorting of heterogeneous agents within and across cities. The technology allows for varying degrees of complementarities between different skill types. Equilibrium is determined by the sorting decision of agents. The work by Behrens, Duranton and Robert-Nicoud 2010) also analyzes sorting of heterogeneous agents into cities. They find that more productive workers locate in large cities and less productive workers in small cities. As a result, they predict as we do the effect in the upper tail, however not that in the lower tail. There is a long tradition in the Urban Economics literature investigating differences across city sizes, in particular with respect to varying standards of living between cities. We are also not the first to study wages across cities. Behrens, Duranton and Robert-Nicoud 2010) regress log nominal wages on log city size across 276 MSA areas using 2000 Census data. They find an average urban premium of 8% without controlling for talent, measured by education, and 5% when controlling for it. In addition, they regress housing costs on city size using both rental prices and an index formed of rental price and housing values of owner-occupied units. They find similar coefficients for housing costs as for nominal wages, suggesting that there is no substantial difference in real wages. This is consistent with our finding that the mean of house-price adjusted wages is the same. They do not analyze the higher variance in larger cities. Albouy 2008) calculates real urban wages for 290 MSAs using the 2000 Census 5% IPUMS). Nominal wages are deflated using rental prices from the Census and local prices for consumption goods. The ACCRA Cost-of-Living index is the basis of the latter but not directly used because of its limited quality. Albouy regresses the ACCRA index on local rental prices and uses the predicted values as an index 4

6 for local cost-of-living differences. Differences in real wages across MSAs are interpreted as quality-of-life differences. He finds that controlling for local differences in federal taxes, non-labor income and observable amenities such as seasons, sunshine, and coastal location, quality of life does not depend on city size. All this body is consistent with our finding that the average of the skill distribution is remarkably constant across different size cities. Of course, that does not allow us to conclude that there is no sorting or that there is sorting of high skilled workers in large cities and low skilled workers in small cities. As we will show below, quite to the contrary. The mean is constant across cities of different size, but the variance is significantly increasing. The latter indicates an important role of sorting of high and low types into large cities and of medium types into small cities. Our findings are also related to the previous literature on variations of skill distributions across city sizes. Bacolod, Blum and Strange 2009) study the difference in skill distributions across city sizes, using jointly Census and NLSY data and the Dictionary of Occupational Titles DOT), defining skills as a combination of qualities instead of just education. They find a small variation in cognitive, people, and motor skills across city sizes, which they attribute to skills being defined nationally, not being able to address local differences in occupational requirements of skills. Once they look at differences in the Armed Forces Qualification Test AFQT) and the Rotter Index measures of intelligence and social skills, respectively they find that, even though the average scores are quite similar across city sizes, the scores at large cities for the lowest scores 10th percentile) are much lower than the ones at small cities. Similarly, the highest scores 90th percentile) were much higher in large cities than small ones. Similar results in a model of labor search are found by Gautier and Teulings 2009). These results corroborate the idea that we have fat tails in the distribution of skills, even though differences in average skill may be small. 3 The Model Population. Consider an economy with heterogeneously skilled workers. Workers are indexed by a skill type i. For now, let the types be discrete: i I = {1,..., I}. Associated with this skill order is a level of productivity y i. Denote the country-wide measure of skills of type i by M i. Let there be J locations cities) j J = {1,..., J}. The amount of land in a city is fixed and denoted by H j. Land is a scarce resource. Preferences. Citizens of skill type i who live in city j have preferences over consumption c ij, and the amount of land or housing) h ij. The consumption good is a numeraire good with price equal to one. The price per unit of land is denoted by p j. We think of the expenditure on housing as the flow value that compensates for the depreciation, interest on capital, etc. In a competitive rental market, the flow payment will equal the rental price. 1 A worker has consumer preferences over the quantities of goods and 1 We will abstract from the housing production technology, for example we can assume that the entire housing stock is held by a zero measure of absentee landlords. 5

7 housing c and h that are represented by: uc, h) = c 1 α h α where α [0, 1. Workers and firms are perfectly mobile, so they can relocate instantaneously and at no cost to another city. Because workers with the same skill are identical, in equilibrium each of them should obtain the same utility level wherever they choose to locate. Therefore for any two cities j, j it must be the case that the respective consumption bundles satisfy: uc ij, h ij ) = uc ij, h ij ), for all skill types i {1,..., I}. Technology. Cities differ in their total factor productivity TFP) which is denoted by A j. For now, we assume that TFP is exogenous. We think of it as representing a city s productive amenities, infrastructure, historical industries, persistence of investments, etc. Below, in section?? we endogenize A j and let it be the result of agglomeration externalities. In each city, firms compete to operate in this market. Firms are all assumed to be identical and to have access to the same, city-specific TFP A j. Output is produced from choosing the right mix of different skilled workers i. For each skill i, a firm in city j chooses a level of employment m ij and produces output: A j F m 1j,..., m Ij ). Firms pay wages w ij for workers of type i. It is important to note that wages depend on the city j because citizens freely locate between cities not based on the highest wage, but given house price differences, based on the highest utility. Entry into the market entails a cost that is city specific. In particular, we assume that firms need to buy a constant amount of k units of land in the city in order to engage in economic activity. Firms need to rent housing space for production and house prices affect the expenditure that a firm incurs to finance infrastructure. As a result, the firm s entry cost is kp j. 2 zero, which are given by: A j F m 1j,..., m Ij ) Competitive entry will drive down profits to I w ij m ij kp j = 0. i=1 The measure of firms entering the market in city j is denoted by N j and is determined by this zero profit condition and the market clearing conditions below. 2 This particular assumption is not crucial for any of our results. We make the assumption because it is realistic and in some of the derivations the dependence on p j simplifies the expressions. 6

8 Market Clearing. In the country-wide market for skilled labor, markets for skills clear market by market: J N j m ij = M i, i. j=1 In the housing market of each city j, market clearing in the housing market requires: ) I N j k + h ij m ij = H j, j. i=1 Within a city there are a measure of N j identical firms, each of which demands k units of land to operate in the market and each employs m ij skilled workers of each skill i who demand h ij units of land for housing. 4 The Equilibrium Allocation The Citizen s Problem. Within a given city j and given a wage schedule w ij, a citizen chooses consumption bundles {c ij, h ij } to maximize utility subject to the budget constraint where the tradable consumption good is the numeraire, i.e. with price unity) max uc ij, h ij ) = cij 1 α {c ij,h ij } s.t. c ij + p j h ij w ij h α ij for all i, j. Solving for the competitive equilibrium allocation for this problem we obtain: c ij = 1 α)w ij h ij = α w ij p j Substituting the equilibrium values in the utility function, we can write the indirect utility for a type i as: U i = α α 1 α) 1 α w ij p α j w ij = U i p α j 1 α α 1 α) 1 α, where U i is constant across cities from labor mobility. This allows us to link the wage distribution across different cities j, j. Wages across cities relate as: w ij w ij = pj p j ) α. The Firm s Problem. All firms are price-takers and do not affect wages. Wages are determined simulta- 7

9 neously in each submarket i, j. Given the city production technology, a firm s problem is given by: max A jf m 1j,..., m Ij ) m ij, i I w ij m ij kp j i=1 s.t. m ij 0, i The first-order condition is: 3 A j F mij m ij) = w ij, i. Because there is no general solution for the equilibrium allocation in the presence of an unrestricted technology, we focus on variations of the Constant Elasticity of Substitution CES) technology where the elasticity is allowed to vary across skill types. As a benchmark therefore, we consider the CES technology: I ) A j F m 1j,..., m Ij ) = A j m γ ij y i i=1 with γ < 1. In this case the first-order conditions are A j γm ij y i = w ij, i. Below we will solve the allocation under CES as a special case of the more general technolgy. Even without fully solving the system of equations for the equilibrium wages, observation of the first-order condition reveals that productivity between different skills i in a given city are governed by two components: 1) the productivity y i of the skilled labor and how fast it increases in i; and 2) the measure of skills m ij employed wages decrease in the measure employed from the concavity of the technology). It is conceivable that the second effect dominates the first effect in the upward sloping part of the skill density. Suppose skills barely increase in i, yet the density is very steep. Adjacent skills are very abundant even though they are more productive. As a result, the wages of the higher skilled types could be lower. Instead, for a given skill distribution, if productivity is sufficiently increasing in i, then wages will always be increasing. In order to avoid the possible reordering of skills, we assume that wages are monotonic in the order i. 4 This assumption allows us to use wages to derive a measure of skill. Guided by the model, we can suitably transform the wage distribution in order to derive the properties of the skill distribution. We now proceed by introducing varying degrees of complementarities between different skills, starting 3 In what follows, the non-negativity constraints on m ij is dropped. This is justified whenever the technology satisfies the Inada condition, that marginal product at zero tends to infinity whenever A j is positive. This will be the case since we focus on variations of the CES technology. 4 As long as y i is sufficiently increasing in i, this order will coincide with the order on y i. When this is not satisfied, we interpret the order on skills as driven by the marginal product, and therefore the equilibrium price. It might be the case that the average artist or architect for example, in terms of years of schooling are more skilled than accountants, yet they earn less. In our price theoretic view of skills, the accountant is considered to be more skilled than the artist. 8

10 from the CES technology. This implies the technology now has an elasticity of substitution that is no longer constant. For tractability, let there be two cities, j {1, 2} and three skill levels i {1, 2, 3}. Consider any subset of the skills, say i, k, between which there is a degree of complementarity λ, and none with the remaining skill level l. Then the technology can be written: ) λ m γ ij y i + m γ kj y k + m γ lj y l. Depending on the subset of skills, we distinguish between the following configurations. Definition 1 Consider the following technologies: I. Extreme-Skill Complementarity. High skill workers are complementary with low skill workers. A j F m 1, m 2, m 3 ) = A j [ m γ 1j y 1 + m γ 3j y 3 ) λ + m γ 2j y 2, when λ > 1 relative to CES. Instead, skills 1 and 3 are substitutes when λ < 1. II. Top-Skill Complementarity. High skill workers are complementary with low skill workers. A j F m 1, m 2, m 3 ) = A j [ m γ 2j y 2 + m γ 3j y 3 ) λ + m γ 1j y 1, when λ > 1 relative to CES. Instead, skills 1 and 3 are substitutes when λ < 1. Observe that we could also introduce bottom-skill complementarities. In terms of the distributional implications, this is equivalent to top-skill substitutabilities, i.e., technology II. with λ < Extreme-Skill Complementarity We first derive the equilibrium conditions for case I, Extreme-Skill Complementarity. The first-order conditions are for each j: λ 1 λa j [m γ 1j y 1 + m γ 3j y 3 γm 1j y 1 w 1j = 0 γa j m 2j y 2 w 2j = 0 λ 1 λa j [m γ 1j y 1 + m γ 3j y 3 γm 3j y 3 w 3j = 0 Using labor mobility, we can write the wage ratio in terms of the house price ratio for all i, w i2 and equate the first-order condition in both cities for a given skill, for example for i = 1: [m γ 31 y 3 + m γ 11 y 1 λ 1 m 11 = p1 9 ) α A 2 [m γ 32 y 3 + m γ 12 y 1 λ 1 m 12 w i1 = p2 p 1 ) α

11 Using market clearing, m i2 = M 1 N 2 N 1 N 2 m 11 in the local labor market, we can simplify to obtain m 11 = M 1 M 3 m 31. Then we can solve for the first-order conditions for each skill to obtain the equilibrium quantities: m 11 = m 21 = m 31 = [ ) α 1 p1 A2 M 1 [ ) α 1 N 2 + N p1 A2 1 [ ) α 1 p1 A2 M 2 [ ) α 1 N 2 + N p1 A2 1 [ ) α 1 p1 A2 M 3 [ ) α 1 N 2 + N p1 A2 1, and likewise in city 2. Even though we have not closed the model yet, it is important at this stage to note that wages depend only on the quantity of aggregate skills M i and not on the city level quantity m ij. This underscores the importance of the general equilibrium effect from mobility: quantities respond to arbitrage until the wage-price ratio is constant across all pairs, and as a result, wages are pinned down only by the economywide supply of skills. Naively taking the first order condition w ij = γ i A j m ij ) γi 1 y β i to the data by regressing wages on the quantity of labor in a given city is therefore completely uninformative, except in the unrealistic case of zero mobility. So far we have consumer optimization for consumption and housing, the location choice by the worker, and firm optimization given wages. The next step is to allow for firm entry and market clearing in the housing market given land prices. Of course this was for didactic purposes. Given the model is static, the system is solved simultaneously. The full system is analyzed in the Appendix. In what follows, we assume H j = H for all cities j. This is a simplifying assumption mostly without any impact on the results. Where it does have bite we discuss the implications. The Main Theoretical Results. First we establish the relation between TFP and city size. Denote by S j the size of city j where S j = I i=1 N jm ij. When cities have the same amount of land, we can establish the following result. Theorem 1 City Size and TFP. Let > A 2 and λγ < 1, γ < 1. Then the more productive city is larger, S 1 > S 2. Proof. In Appendix. We establish this result for cities with identical supply of land. Clearly, the supply of land is important in our model since in a city with an extremely tiny geographical area, labor demand would drive up housing 10

12 prices all else equal. This may therefore make it more expensive to live even if the productivity is lower. Because in our empirical application we consider large metropolitan areas NY city for example includes large parts of New Jersey and Connecticut), we believe that this assumption is without much loss of generality. 5 We now proceed to showing the main result. We already know that more productive cities are larger, but that does not necessarily mean that the distribution of skills in larger cities differs from that in smaller cities. In fact, it depends on the technology. distribution as the smaller cities. We can now establish the main theorem characterizing the skill distribution across firms: Theorem 2 Extreme-Skill Complementarity and Fat Tails. Given > A 2, λ > 1 and λγ < 1, the skill distribution in the larger city has fatter tails second-order stochastically dominates). Proof. In Appendix. Two Corollaries immediately follow from the main Theorem. Corollary 1 CES technology. If λ = 1 and γ < 1, then the skill distribution across cities is identical. Under the CES technology, cities have identical skill compositions. This is due to the homotheticity of the CES technology: the marginal rate of technical substitution is proportional to total employment, and as a result, firms in different cities and with different technologies will employ different skills in the same proportions. The proof of the result follows immediately from setting λ = 1 in the proof of Theorem 2. Even though the city size distribution under CES technology is the same across cities, the more productive city will be larger. This follows from Theorem 1. The second Corollary establishes the mirror-image result under extreme-skill substitutability. Corollary 2 Extreme-Skill Substitutability and Thin Tails. Given > A 2, λ < 1 and λγ < 1, the skill distribution in the larger city has thinner tails is second-order stochastically dominated). These two Corollaries can help build intuition for the result in Theorem 2. Consider first the benchmark of CES. Homotheticity implies that even though the level of employment differs across skills, firms will always choose to hire different skills in exactly the same proportions for a given wage ratio. Since house prices affect all skills within a city in the same way, the wage ratio is unaffected. Instead with extreme-skill complementarity, the marginal product of both the low and the high skilled workers is higher than for medium skills, thus breaking the homotheticity. Given the complementarity between TFP A j and the skill aggregator, now the marginal impact on productivity of the extreme skills will be disproportionately higher in larger than in smaller cities. This induces the relative increase in 5 In fact, the equal supply of housing condition is only sufficient for the proof, not necessary. However, our model does not speak to the important issue of within-city geographical heterogeneity, as analyzed for example in Lucas and Rossi-Hansberg 2002). In our application, all heterogeneity is absorbed in the pricing index by means of the hedonic regression. Moreover, in recent work Fu and Ross 2010) find little evidence of sorting within metropolitan areas based on agglomeration. 11

13 demand for extreme skills. Observe that this cannot be offset by higher house prices because those are determined by real wage equalization at all skill levels, including the medium skilled. The higher real wages for low and high skilled workers in large cities will attract those skill types into the large cities driving down nominal wages until real wages are equalized. This in-migration of low and high skilled workers leads to the fat tails in the large cities. 4.2 Top-Skill Complementarity We now repeat the analysis for the technology A j F m 1, m 2, m 3 ) = A j [ m γ 2j y 2 + m γ 3j y 3 ) λ + m γ Without going through the detailed analysis in the text see Appendix), obtain the equivalent to Theorem 2 above Theorem 1 readily extends as well) : Theorem 3 Top-Skill Complementarity and First Order Stochastic Dominance. Given > A 2, λ > 1 and λγ < 1, the skill distribution in the larger city first-order stochastically dominates. Proof. In Appendix. And the Corollary establishing the mirror-image result under extreme-skill substitutability. Corollary 3 Top-Skill Substitutability and First Order Stochastic Dominance. Given > A 2, λ < 1 and λγ < 1, the skill distribution in the larger city is first-order stochastically dominated. Under top-skill complementarity, the highest skilled are complements with the next highest skill types, thus generating disproportionately higher output in larger cities. This complementarity breaks the homotheticity property, and leads to disproportionate demand in larger cities. Free mobility and real wage equalization across cities implies that the distribution in the larger city has disproportionately more of the top skill types. This induces first order stochastic dominance of the skill distribution. 1j y Further Results Housing Consumption and Expenditure. It is immediate from our model that in large cities, citizens will spend more on housing, yet they will consume less of it. Proposition 1 Consider a general technology F. For a given skill i, expenditure on housing p j h ij is higher in larger cities. The size of houses h ij in larger cities is smaller. Proof. From the consumer s problem, we have: p j h ij = αw ij. Then, since we established in the proof of Proposition 1, that w i1 > w i2, we must have p 1 h i1 > h i2, i. Similarly, from the same equality in the consumer s problem, we have h ij = αw ij /p j. Again, from the proof of Proposition 1, we have: w i1 p 1 < w i2 12

14 which implies h i1 < h i2. Then given homothetic preferences for consumption, it immediately follows that: Corollary 4 Expenditure on the consumption good is higher in larger cities. Our model predicts that expenditure on both housing and consumption is higher in larger cities, though the equilibrium quantity of housing h ij is lower. As cities become larger or as the difference in TFP increases), at all skill levels total income increases and therefore total expenditure increases. Because house prices increase as well, there will be substitution away from housing to the consumption good. As a result, inequality in consumption expenditure will increase. Firm Size. It immediately follows from the proof of Theorem 1 that firm size is increasing in city size. By assumption, there is a representative firm within a given city, and the firm size in city j is given by i m ij. Due to the free entry condition for firms and the ensuing general equilibrium effects, the representative firm is larger in larger cities. Corollary 5 Firms are larger in larger cities. 5 The Empirical Evidence of Fat Tails: Big Cities, Big Inequality 5.1 Empirical Strategy We use the one-to-one relation between skills and equilibrium utility to back out the skill distribution from easily observable variables. The worker s indirect utility in equilibrium is independent of the city, given perfect mobility, and assuming Cobb-Douglas preferences, it satisfies U i = α α 1 α) 1 α w ij p α j 1) where we need to observe the distribution of wages w ij by city j, the housing price level p j by city and the budget share of housing α. 5.2 Data The analysis is performed at the city level. We define a city as a Core Based Statistical Area CBSA), the most comprehensive functional definition of metropolitan areas published by the Office of Management and Budget OMB) in See Table 1 for examples of cities and their 2009 population. [ Insert Table 1 here 13

15 pdf cdf log wage population < 1m > 2.5m log wage population < 1m > 2.5m Figure 2: Wage distribution for small and large cities. Full-time wage earners from 2009 CPS. A. Kernel density estimtates Epanechnikov kernel, bandwidth = 0.1), not adjusted for top-coding; B. Empirical CDF, accounting for top-coding. We use wage data from the Current Population Survey CPS) for the year We observe weekly earnings for 102,577 full-time workers in 257 U.S. metropolitan areas. CPS wages are top-coded at around $150,000 which we will take into account in the statistical analysis. Local housing price levels are estimated using the 5% Public Use Microsample PUMS) of the 2000 U.S. Census of Housing. We observe monthly rents for 3,274,198 housing units and assessed housing values for 7,680,728 owner-occupied units in 533 CBSAs. The Census also reports the number of rooms and bedrooms, the age of the structure, the number of units in the structure and whether the unit has kitchen facilities. City specific price indices from the Federal Housing Finance Agency FHFA) based on the Case and Shiller 1987) repeat sales method are used to adjust for growth in housing prices. See the data appendix for more details on data source, sample restrictions and variables. 5.3 Wage distribution Figure 2 shows the distribution of weekly wages for full-time earners both in cities with a population of more than 2.5 million and cities with population between 100,000 and 1 million. We clearly see that wages in larger cities are higher and that the top tail of the distribution is substantially bigger in large cities. 6 A simple t-test shows that wages in large cities are 13.2% higher than in small ones t = 28.3, p < 0.000). Controlling for right censoring from top-coding and weights in a censored tobit) regression leads to almost exactly the same comparison: log wage= 13.1% robust t = 24.7, p < 0.000). Figure 17 in the appendix draws the confidence intervals of the distribution and also shows that the difference is significant. The above partitioning of wages into a group of small cities and a group of large cities ignores substantial differences across different cities of similar size. We therefore also relate the wage distribution 6 Note that the bumps in the top tail for both large and small cities are an artefact of the top-coded nominal wage data. 14

16 average log wage std.dev. log wage log population log population Figure 3: Wage distribution by population size. A. City Mean slope=0.046, s.e.=0.007); B. City Standard Deviation slope=0.023, s.e.=0.003). Based on censored regression accounting for top-coding. of individual cities CBSA) to city size. We estimate the mean and the standard deviation of the rightcensored wage distribution for each city with maximum likelihood assuming log normality, i.e. a tobit regression on a constant. Figure 3 plots these estimates against 2009 population size. We see that both average wages and the variance of wages increases with population size. A simple linear regression estimates a slope coefficient of for mean log wages robust t = 6.89, p > 0.000) and of robust t = 7.87, p > 0.000) for the standard deviation of log wages. On average, a one percent increase in the city population leads to 0.046% increase in the wage. Table 2 shows the top 10 and bottom 10 cities with respect to average wages. [ Insert Table 2 here 5.4 Housing Prices We model housing as a homogenous good h with a location specific per unit price p j. In practice, however, housing differs in many observable dimensions. Observed housing prices therefore reflect both the location and the physical characteristics of the unit. Sieg et al. 2002) show the conditions under which housing can be treated as if it were homogenous and how to construct a price index for it. Take our Cobb-Douglas utility function uc, hz)) = c 1 α h α z) and assume that housing hz) is a function, for simplicity of exposition only, of two characteristics z = z 1, z 2 ) with a nested Cobb-Douglas structure hz) = z δ 1z 1 δ 2. 15

17 The indirect utility given the market prices q 1 and q 2 for, respectively, characteristic z 1 and z 2 is then [ α U i = α α 1 α) 1 α Lq1q δ 2 1 δ w where L = 1/[δ δ 1 δ) 1 δ. Defining the price index p = Lq δ 1 q1 δ 2 the indirect utility is U i = α α 1 α) 1 α w p α and thus identical to the one derived assuming homogenous housing h with market price p. The subexpenditure function eq 1, q 2, h) is defined as the minimum expenditure necessary to obtain h units of housing and given by eq 1, q 2, h) = Lq δ 1q 1 δ 2 h = ph = pz δ 1z 1 δ 2. Taking logarithms and assuming that we observe z 1 but not z 2 yields a linear hedonic regression model loge jn ) = logp j ) + δ logz 1jn ) + u jn where e n is the observed rental price of housing unit n and logp j ). We can therefore estimate the city specific price level as location-specific fixed effect in a simple hedonic regression of log rental prices on the physical characteristics. [ Insert Table 3 here Table 3 shows the results of the hedonic regressions both for rental units and owner-occupied units using Census data. We use all available housing characteristics in the data and add all categories as dummy variables without functional form assumptions. All coefficients are highly significant with expected signs: housing prices increase with the number of rooms and decrease with the age of the structure. We find a non-monotonic relationship in the numbers of units in the structure with highest prices for single-family detached homes and buildings with more than 50 units. We adjust our estimated price levels from the 2000 Census for price changes using data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency FHFA). Table 4 shows the resulting house price indices for the highest and lowest priced cities in our sample. [ Insert Table 4 here 5.5 Skill distribution Davis and Ortalo-Magné 2007) document that expenditure shares on housing are remarkably constant across U.S. metropolitan areas with a median expenditure share of We use this as our estimate of α. Together with our estimate for local housing prices p j we can back out the indirect utility u ij for the observed wages using equation 1). 16

18 pdf cdf log utility population < 1m > 2.5m log utility population < 1m > 2.5m Figure 4: Skill distribution for small and large cities. A. Kernel density estimates Epanechnikov kernel, bandwidth = 0.1), not adjusted for city-specific top-coding; B. Empirical CDF adjusted for top-coding using the Kaplan-Meier method. log utility log population 50th 25th/75th 10th/90th percentile estimated slope utility quantile 95% confidence bounds slope coefficient Figure 5: Quantile regression of skills utility) on population. A. 5 selected quantiles; B. Estimated slope for all quantiles. Figure 4 shows the distribution of skills for full-time earners both in cities with a population of more than 2.5 million and cities with population between 100,000 and 1 million. In contrast to the wage distribution, the skill distribution in large cities is only marginally shifted to the right. However, both the upper and the lower tail of the distribution is thicker in the large cities thus confirming the consistency with the theoretical prediction of fat tails from extreme-skill complementarity. 7 Figure 17 in the appendix also draws confidence intervals of the distribution and shows that the difference is significant. While he above evidenced fat tails are very robust to other partitions of cities into small and large ones, one could argue that the grouping is arbitrary. We therefore run quantile regressions of our implicit skill measure on city population. Figure 5 visualizes the results of these regressions. It shows that the 7 Note again that the bumps in the top tail are due to top coding, see footnote 6. Top-codes appear more to the left for large cities because real wages are deflated with higher house prices. 17

19 average log utility std.dev. log utility log population log population average log utility std.dev. log utility log population log population kernel regression line 95% confidence bounds kernel regression line 95% confidence bounds Figure 6: Skill distribution by population size. Left graphs: Mean; Right graphs: Standard Deviation. Top graphs: linear regression slope average=0.016 s.e.=0.007); slope st.dev.=0.023 s.e.=0.003)). Bottom graphs: local linear regression Epanechnikov kernel, bandwidth = 0.58 and 0.74, respectively) median 50%) barely changes with city sizes while the lower percentiles significantly decrease and the upper percentiles significantly increase. This reiterates our finding that the average of skills does not change systematically with city size while the variance of skills increases significantly. The analysis so far ignores the substantial differences in the skill distribution across cities of similar size. We therefore estimate the mean and the standard deviation of the skill distribution for each city separately. As with wages, we take into account the city-specific right censoring from top-coded wages by estimating a censored tobit) regression on a constant. The top two graphs in Figure 6 plot these estimates against 2009 population size. We see that while average skills vary little with population size, the standard deviation increases substantially. A simple linear regression estimates a slope coefficient of for mean log utility robust t = 2.21, p > 0.028) and of robust t = 7.61, p > 0.000) for the standard deviation of log utility. The lower two graphs in Figure 6 show non-parametric local linear regressions for the size relationship and 95% confidence intervals. Both the parametric and non- 18

20 parametric estimates clearly confirm the fat tail hypothesis. Table 5 shows the top 10 and bottom 10 cities when ordered by average wages. [ Insert Table 5 here [ Insert Table 6 here 6 Robustness: Observable Determinants of Spatial Sorting Our measure of skills is a price based measure, calculated as the residual of wages after adjusting for house prices. In this section we verify the robustness of the spatial sorting result based on this price-theoretic measure of skills. There are two distinct issues. First, the price-theoretic measure encompasses both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Therefore we attempt to verify the claim based on an observed, direct measure of skills. As is common in much of the literature, we use as a direct measure of skill educational attainment and occupational characteristics. If more high skilled workers locate in large cities, there are more likely to be individuals with more years of schooling, and workers in occupations of management, professionals,... Likewise for the low skilled education levels and occupations. Second, there may be other reasons for observing spatial sorting of skills that is not due to complementarities in skills. In particular, it may be the case that industries selectively locate in different size cities because they use substantially different technologies. If in addition, those technologies have different demands for skills, it may well be the case that the fat tails are due to industry selection in conjunction with differential skill demand. As an example, the financial sector might disproportionately locate in large cities, and that sector disproportionately attracts high skilled labor. The implication is then that due to industry selection, large cities attract disproportionately high skilled workers. Likewise, large cities may attract industries that disproportionately employ low skilled work such as government service sectors or the health care sector. We deal with Education, Occupation and Industry in turn. 6.1 A Direct Measure of Skills: Education As a robustness check and as external validation, we compare our implicit skill distribution with observed measures of skill. Figure 7.A. shows the distribution of educational attainment for the same CPS population as our wage data, where workers are grouped in 7 education categories. The same pattern as with our implicit measure arises: both the highest and the lowest skilled workers are disproportionately more frequent in larger cities than in smaller ones. This can be observed even more transparently when we group the education levels into three groups. This is reported in Figure 7.B. What is most striking about this observation is that the fat tails in the 19

21 No high school High school degree Some College Bachelor Master MD,... PhD No high school High school degree Bachelor and more density density population < 1m > 2.5m population < 1m > 2.5m Figure 7: Observed educational attainment for small and large cities. Highest completed grade of full-time wage earner in 2009 CPS. A. Grouped in 7 categories; B. Grouped in 3 categories. distribution of educational attainment is obtained independently of how we constructed our measure of skills before. Here, no theory is needed and the measure of skills is determined exogenously. The fat tails in the distribution of educational attainment in larger cities can also be established at the individual city level. Below in Figure 8, we report the scatter plot of the variance of educational attainment when educational attainment categories are given a score corresponding to the years of schooling. Like in the case where the skill measure is derived from the wage distribution, when we use an observable, reported measure of skill, we find little correlation between city size and average skill, but a significant and positive relation between city size and the standard deviation of the skill measure. Using observable, self-reported measures of skills either education categories or years of schooling we find a distribution with fatter tails in larger cities, both in the aggregate and at the individual city level. In principle, indiviudal skills can be decomposed into an observed component, e.g. education, and an unobserved component, e.g. ability. We have shown above that the observed component exhibits indeed fat tails. The distribution of real wages conditional on observed education is a measure of the unobserved skill component. This indirect measure of unobserved skills rests on somewhat weaker assumptions than our analysis in section 5.5. The key identifying assumption to derive the skill distribution from wages is perfect mobility of identically skilled workers. For our wage-based skill measure in section 5.5 that implies that utility of a given skilled worker is the same across different cities. Here, we only need to assume perfect mobility of workers given their attained education level. Utility need not be equalized for identical observed skill levels across different cities. We follow two approaches to derive a wage based measure of unobserved skills. In our first approach, we regress observed log wages on dummy variables for all 16 observed education 20