Workshop No. 4 - Report. High-Tech Leadership and Innovation Skills

Transcription

1 SCALE Leadership Skills for Digital and Key Enabling Technologies Workshop No. 4 - Report High-Tech Leadership and Innovation Skills Estimation of Demand, Supply and Forecasting: Approach, Methodology and Results written by ERIONA DASHJA TOBIAS HÜSING WERNER B. KORTE November 2016

2 Content 1 Towards a European Agenda Designing the Agenda Update on definition and quantification of innovation leadership skills for the high-tech economy E-Leadership skills / innovation leadership skills definition Requirement analysis Quantification of e-leadership demand and employment Status quo of e-leadership positions Sector and size class structure of the economy as determinants Functional (occupation) data as determinants e-leadership vacancies Conclusions Forecasting Using the e-leadership scoreboard as a proxy for direct measurement Towards recommendations and actions Initial set of recommendations and actions Conclusions and consolidated recommendations and actions (Status: November 2016) ANNEXES Initial set of recommendations for discussion (status: January 2016) Recommendations after completion of workshop no. 1 (status: March 2016) Workshop no. 4 agenda and participants

3 1 Towards a European Agenda Under the service contract Promotion of e-leadership Skills in Europe - which empirica, PwC and IDC are carrying out together with researchers from the Oxford Martin School at Oxford University for the European Commission (DG GROW) a proposal for an Agenda on "Leadership Skills for Digital and Key Enabling Technologies in Europe: Towards 2020 and Beyond" will be developed. This will take place in iterations and supported through experts providing contributions and feedback on early drafts, expressing their views and making recommendations in a series of expert workshops conducted throughout the year Our ambition is to ensure that Europe can be a global leader for skills and talent for digital and key enabling technologies (KETs). A summary of the recent developments including results from the fourth expert workshop are presented in this report. It comes timely for consideration by the European Commission for its Communication on "A New Skills Agenda for Europe" and related initiatives. It will build on the EU long term e-skills strategy (2007) and the Grand Coalition for Digital Jobs (2013) and address the digital skills of the workforce and citizen, IT specialist skills and leadership skills for digital and key enabling technologies. It will also seek to make elaborations for better use of existing funding instruments at all levels. This concern is shared by many leading organisations in the world. For example, the International Society of Service Innovation Professionals (ISSIP) is promoting T-shaped professionals who are future ready adaptive innovators. In March 2016 the T-Summit took place in Washington bringing together government, industry and academia to, maximize dissemination on the latest learnings of T-Shaped professionals, and how policies, curriculum, and student and employee behaviour can prepare the future workforce. Simply, T Shape is a way to navigate and present individual career experience with breadth of experience (top of the T) with depth of mastery of a recognized discipline (the I of the T). The core idea is to facilitate the ability of professionals to work in collaborative teams with others in complementary disciplines and to be able to pivot with uncertainty and changing workplace requirements. The T-shape metaphor had also been used when referring to and describing digital leadership (eleadership) skills. It still uses this in addition to the presentation format of the e-leadership skills triangle. They are the skills required of an individual to initiate and achieve digital innovation: 3

4 The e-leadership triangle: Strategic Leadership: Lead inter disciplinary staff, and influence stakeholders across boundaries (functional, geographic) Business Savvy: Innovate business and operating models, delivering value to organisations Digital Savvy: Envision and drive change for business performance, exploiting digital technology trends as innovation opportunities. 4

5 2 Designing the Agenda EUROPEAN COMMISSION The agenda will be developed in collaboration with experts from a range of national governments and associated institutions, policy developers, industry and its association representatives at national and European level, think tanks, researchers and academics as well as higher and executive education institutions and other relevant key stakeholders all providing their views on the future necessary (policy) actions and thereby directly contributing to and shaping European and Member State policy development for the coming years. As mentioned above a series of expert consultations took place with the above stakeholder in the preparation of the agenda organised through workshops to which experts have been invited and as follows: Workshop Topic Date and venue Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Workshop 4 Disruptive Digital Economy Trends and the Implications for the Workforce, Skills and Policy Initiatives on e-leadership Skills Software in Europe what needs to be done for Europe to move from use to creation Best Practices: Lessons and Contributions to the Development of the Agenda for Leadership Skills in Europe High-Tech Leadership and Innovation Skills: Estimation of Demand, Supply and Forecasting: Approach, Methodology and Results 22 January 2016, Brussels 20 April 2016, Brussels 22 September 2016, Brussels 22 November 2016, Brussels It goes without question that the out-of-the-box thinking demanded from experts at these workshops will require that the relevant actors in Europe need to get out of their comfort zones. Education system players like universities and business schools need to move away from traditional behaviours, ontologies, curriculum standards, and existing programmes and other players are likely to also come up with offers in this domain or take over should the traditional education institutions not react. Industry needs to specify their needs in more detail and also need to train people in order to become more creative and innovative. They also need to find ways of dealing with non-conformance behaviour since this is often the way to innovation and success. Finally, policy makers need to set the right framework conditions including joint initiatives with industry and universities to create a new sustaining business oriented software creation and engineering network in Europe. The final results will be presented at a European conference on 26 January 2017 in Brussels. 2.1 Update on definition and quantification of innovation leadership skills for the high-tech economy New digital and key enabling technologies will generate new market opportunities and will foster new and sometime disruptive business models. Enterprises of all sizes and in all sectors require the availability of new skills at all levels especially at the leadership level to fully exploit these technologies and for Europe to become a better place to invest and do business. Not surprisingly these skills are in very high demand globally. The demand cannot be met by the current supply from education and training institutions. There is a job to do for policy makers and stakeholders to increase the talent pool and reduce skills gaps, mismatches and shortages! A better quantification of the magnitude of the challenge is needed. However, while IT professionals jobs are reflected in existing occupational categories and statistics this is not the case for those at leadership 5

6 level. In order to guide policy development there is a need to propose clear definitions concerning IT professionals and very importantly high-tech leaders. These should be complemented by specifications of the corresponding skills requirements, and estimations of their numbers, future demand and supply and a forecasting up until 2020 and beyond. We estimate that the gap could reach almost 750,000 for ICT professionals and around 200,000 for hightech leaders in Europe by These estimates need to be updated and put on more solid grounds in terms of scope and definitions but also quantification of their current size, future demand and supply and the models on which to build forecasts. First results of this updating activity have been presented at the workshop. 2.2 E-Leadership skills / innovation leadership skills definition Leaders with high tech leadership and innovation skills (short e-leadership skills) are people capable of driving successful innovation and capitalizing on new digital and key enabling technologies. Sufficient supply of high-tech leadership skills to the economy fosters innovation, economic growth and creates jobs. These competences enable an individual to initiate and guide digital innovation at all levels of enterprise, from the start-up to the largest of corporations, from private to public. High tech and innovation leaders are both business and digitally savvy, and exhibit a capability to lead strategically. They might be digital leaders who are also business-savvy or business leaders who are digitally-savvy. E-leadership involves leading and managing e-skilled professionals as well as other professionals. The e-leadership triangle 1 1 From: Hüsing, Tobias, E.Dashja, K. Gareis, W.B. Korte, T. Stabenow, P. Markus: e-leadership Skills for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises. Final Report. Bonn

7 Source: Hüsing, Tobias, E. Dashja, K. Gareis, W.B. Korte, T. Stabenow, P. Markus: e-leadership Skills for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises. Final Report, Bonn 2015 The three domains of skills digital skills, business skills and strategic leadership skills can be further spelled out into specific skills that constitute e-leadership in these areas. In the e-cf 2, most of these skills are well defined, enabling and following through the innovation process. In defining e-leadership through the e-cf, these have been organised as strategic, management, innovation/transformation and creative/implementation skills 3 : Figure: Mapping key e-cf e-leadership competences 4 Legend: Source: Hüsing, Tobias, E. Dashja, K. Gareis, W.B. Korte, T. Stabenow, P. Markus: e-leadership Skills for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises. Final Report, Bonn 2015 High tech and innovation leadership skills needs are rather diverse across industries, enterprise sizes and enterprise or product life-cycle stages. Also due to the dynamics of technological developments, in entrepreneurship and management science will evolve over time. High tech and innovation leadership skills are combinations of a sufficient number and level of skills from all three domains. Competences that are arguably not covered well by the e-cf include industry specific knowledge, skills and competences (such as the knowledge about the automotive sector that an e-leader in that sector needs. Also, product specific knowledge, skills and competences (which may also be company specific) are not See fn 1. 4 For the e-cf taxonomy, see: The current version (3.0) - released in December does not fully cover the definition of e-leadership. This will be addressed in the new version. 7

8 covered by the e-cf. As the e-cf is a generic tool, including these competences would clearly stretch it beyond its purpose. 2.3 Requirement analysis High tech and innovation leadership skills requirements by SMEs and entrepreneurs were researched in the LEAD project 5. Requirements of e-leadership education appear very diverse, yet some patterns emerge from the analysis. Fast growing SMEs and entrepreneurs have many competence needs in the three skill areas that constitute e-leadership: IT savvy, business acumen and strategic leadership skills. The following picture contains the competence requirements as gathered through qualitative research. Entrepreneurial and fast growing SMEs competence requirements gathered through qualitative research Source: Hüsing, Tobias, E. Dashja, K. Gareis, W.B. Korte, T. Stabenow, P. Markus: e-leadership Skills for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises. Final Report, Bonn Quantification of e-leadership demand and employment Previous work under service contracts for the European Commission relating to e-leadership skills in Europe has relied on different methods used to estimate the e-leadership demand and supply in Europe. In a first instance, during the VISION service contract 6 a demand estimation has been based on the sector and size structure of businesses in Europe, for complete lack of empirical data simply assuming that an enterprise of a certain size and in a certain, more or less ICT intensive sector needs on average a certain number of e- leadership skilled employees. Supply estimation was based on occupational data and assumed that a certain percentage of several occupations (such as ICT and R&D executives) are e-leaders. A second, survey based methodology was used in the service contract New Curricula for e-leadership Skills: Guidelines and Quality Labels for New Curricula for e-leadership Skills in Europe. In 2013, empirica surveyed 900 enterprises of the business economy and public sector with the intention to estimate the number of 5 See footnote 1 6 Hüsing, T, W. Korte, N. Fonstad, B. Lanvin, G. Cattaneo, M.Kolding, R. Lifonti, D. van Welsum: e-leadership e-skills for Competitiveness and Innovation. Vision, Roadmap and Foresight Scenarios. Final Study Report. Bonn

9 employees that could be seen as e-leaders 7. The result of this method was an estimated stock of e-leaders of 568,000 in Europe in In addition to the exercises to estimate the incidence of e-leadership skills in Europe, a third method was tried in 2015 under the service contract Promotion of e-leadership Skills in Europe to capture the current demand for e-leadership skills that is based on posted online vacancies. 2.4 Status quo of e-leadership positions Sector and size class structure of the economy as determinants To estimate the incidence of e-leaders, we assumed that some organizations need more e-leaders than others, depending on the two dimensions. One dimension is the size of organization. A very large firm will need more e-leaders. The second dimension is the degree to which organizations rely on technology for their business operations and for their innovating and provisioning services and products. Based on these two dimensions, we highlight different types of organizations: ICT sector, medium sized and large or very large; and High ICT intensity sectors, medium sized and large or very large; and Low ICT intensity sectors, medium sized and large or very large; and Gazelles / High-growth SMEs across all sectors This approach for estimating e-leadership skills is based on the number of enterprises in different sectors according to the NACE classification, different company size classes and a differentiation according to ICT usage intensity. The NACE sector differentiation and allocation to different groups / segments can be seen below. Three size classes have been defined: Micro and Small: 0-49 employees Medium: employees Large: 250+ employees Type of sector Size of firm Number of enterprises 8 Estimated demand of e- leaders per enterprise Estimated TOTAL demand of e-leaders by firm type medium 7, ,000 ICT sector 9 large and very 1, ,000 large High ICT intensity sectors medium 65, ,000 large and very large 15, ,000 Low ICT intensity medium 155, ,000 7 Robinson, S. S. Manwani, L. Hendriks, B. Hanny, T- Hüsing, P. Jaschke: New Curricula for e-leadership skills. Guidelines and quality labels for new curricula for e-leadership skills in Europe. Interim Study Report. Bonn The number of enterprises was taken from Eurostat s Structural Business Statistics data base, latest available data. Several imputations had to be made based on older data, similar sectors, third party data or plausibility checks in order to arrive at this estimation. 9 Sectors as per NACE Rev.2 are: ICT sector: High ICT intensity sectors: 18; 26-29, 58-60; K-N. Else: Low ICT intensity sectors. Excluded are sectors A; O- U. 9

10 Type of sector Size of firm Number of enterprises 8 Estimated demand of e- leaders per enterprise Estimated TOTAL demand of e-leaders by firm type sectors large and very large 27, ,000 Across all sectors High growth , ,000 SMEs TOTAL 436, , Functional (occupation) data as determinants Another method is to refer to occupation data and check on the above figures. INSEAD 11 has developed the following Venn chart to identify a functional view on e-leadership. Three segments of this definition visualisation need to be quantified in order to arrive at an estimation of e- leadership incidence: - Digital entrepreneurs - Leader managers - Non-managerial e- leaders. Regarding digital entrepreneurs, we restrict ourselves to the most successful ones to be called e- leaders. As seen previously, there about 140,000 high growth SMEs in Europe. Fonstad et al.: e-leadership. Skills for Competitiveness and Innovation. Final brochure of the study e-skills for Competitiveness and Innovation: Vision, Roadmap and Foresight Scenarios. Brussels Number of high growth enterprises measured in employment (growth by 10% or more). Latest figures from Rounded figure from Eurostat 11 Fonstad et al.: e-leadership. Skills for Competitiveness and Innovation. Final brochure of the study e-skills for Competitiveness and Innovation: Vision, Roadmap and Foresight Scenarios. Brussels

11 Out of the 140,000 high growth enterprises reported by Eurostat, only about 10,000 are from the information sector. However, it can safely be assumed that a much larger portion of high-growth SMEs (HGSMEs) are actually thriving on digital business models. For our back-of-the-envelope calculation, we boldly assume the figure of e-leaders among entrepreneurs to be 100,000. Regarding managers, the pool of potential leaders is naturally huge. There are over 13 million managers in Europe. However, looking closely at the definitions provided in the ISCO manuals (see the definition on the right hand side), we suspect that most e- leaders will be found among the group of actual line managers: Administrative and Commercial Managers. Among these, ICT, R&D, Sales and marketing and advertising and PR managers are likely to be hosting most e-leaders. How many of these managers are actually e-leaders is completely unknown, and any putting percentages to these totals remains speculation. As an attempt, the following figures are the result of some educated guessing. From: ILO: The Internation Standard Classification of Occupations. Structure, group definitions and correspondence tables. p.72. Geneva Managers, total EU28, 2015 ISCO-08 Chief Executives, senior officials and Legislators 110 1,646,000 Administrative and Commercial Managers 120 3,285,000 Production and specialized services managers 130 4,882,000 Hospitality, Retail and other services managers 140 3,480,000 Total 1 13,293,000 Source: Eurostat LFS data 2015 Estimation of e-leaders among managers Managers Total Presumed incidence E-Leader estimate ICT (133) 442,000 50% 221,000 R&D (1223) 143,000 50% 72,000 Sales & marketing (1221) 928,000 10% 93,000 11

12 Managers Total Presumed incidence E-Leader estimate Advertising & PR (1222) 140,000 10% 14,000 Total 400,000 Source (column 2): Eurostat LFS data Estimations: empirica The segment of non-managerial e-leaders is estimated at 100,000, for lack of any empirical source. e-leaders Digital entrepreneurs 100,000 Managers Total Presumed incidence ICT 442, ,000 R&D 143, ,000 Sales & marketing 928, ,000 Advertising & PR 140, ,000 Non-managerial e-leaders 100,000 e-leaders 600, e-leadership vacancies The quantification is based on certain assumptions and propositions. Rather than being reflected in well defined jobs which can be identified in organisational structures or hierarchies, or even in official taxonomies used e.g. for statistical purposes, e-leaders are a meta-class of jobs. Most given job titles of people who would actually be identified as e-leaders based on their skills and job tasks, will quite probably not indicate e-leadership. However, we assume that at least a subset of desired e-leadership skills and criteria will be used in the formulation of job postings. Analysing job posts, it should be possible to rate vacancies and identify and classify some as e-leadership positions to a satisfactory degree. For such an endeavour, one needs a database of online vacancies which is satisfactorily complete, deduplicated and searchable. A necessary assumption is furthermore that a certain, stable and significant proportion of all e-leadership positions are advertised online. Given the fact that many leadership positions are not, in fact, posted in a manner as it is common for non-leadership professionals, it is important to develop an idea of what share of vacant leadership positions are in fact publicly visible. Hiring for many of these positions will be either through internal recruiting, through personal communication or through staffing service providers such as head hunters. Another prerequisite of using online data for e-leadership quantification is to define and validate e- leadership skills, personal attributes or job tasks in such a way that they can be satisfactorily enumerated as string text for text mining approaches. This is not trivial, as text strings need to be selected so as to minimise both false positive and false negative hits. It relies also on the assumption that e-leadership skills and attributes are mentioned in the advertisement text body and not just tacitly assumed (i.e. taken as givens for certain hierarchy levels or job titles) from applicants. We used jobfeed, an online database by Textkernel B.V. to identify e-leadership vacancies. Jobfeed is a proprietary database storing full text job ads scraped from the internet. We used data from five countries (DE, UK, FR, NL, AT) which together cover 66% of the European employment of ICT management, architecture and analysis job. The operationalisation of e-leadership was based on conceptual work carried in the project e-leadership digital skills for SMEs and start-ups. To be classified as an e-leadership job advert, a posting needed to cover five areas of requirements: 12

13 Leadership Digital Transformation and innovation Strategy and Business EUROPEAN COMMISSION For each of these areas, search terms were derived from a text analysis of 100 hand selected e-leadership positions. e-leadership concept for keyword operationalisation and search algorithm The e-leadership pyramid e-leadership expressed in e-cf competences An iterative approach to hone selection of terms was used, reviewing again and again query results for (presumed) hits, but also false positives and (more difficult) false negatives. The challenge here is to create discriminatory keywords while not excluding too many would-be e-leaders. Certain industries or job categories could be excluded based on jobfeed s built in taxonomies. Co-occurrence analyses were run to select the best fitting search phrases. The result presented concerns all jobs active (i.e. still online, checked daily) on the , posted no more than 4 months prior to that date and fulfilling the developed search term query. For the five countries covered, these were as follows. Identified online vacancies matching the e-leadership search algorithm in November 2015 DE AT UK NL FR Number of vacancies In total, 5425 e-leadership vacancies were found in the five countries. Given that two thirds of Europe s ICT management, architecture and analysis jobs are found in the five countries covered, we decided to use this 13

14 Estimated number of e-leadership positions EUROPEAN COMMISSION ratio to extrapolate to Europe, giving us an estimated number of 8,168 posted online vacancies for e- Leaders in Europe on that day. To arrive at an estimation of the number of actual open posts, an assumption is necessary about the share of published vacancies in all e-leader vacancies. For leadership positions, the share of vacancies not posted but hired through personnel service providers (head hunters) or otherwise is rather high, as research with CIOs and personnel service providers has indicated. We therefore use a 50% parameter. The estimation of open e-leadership positions therefore is multiplied by the inverse of 50%, 2, returning an e-leadership vacancy total of 16,336 for the EU-28 in November Given the estimation of 600,000 actual e-leadership jobs, and given the estimation of 16,336 vacancies, the resulting vacancy rate were to amount to 2.65%. This compares to an overall Job vacancy rate (JVR) for the total economy of 1.8%, and 2.1% for the service sectors. In the information and communication sector, the JVR amounts to 2.9%. The vacancy rate of ICT professional jobs based on vacancy counts and ISCO data is estimated to be 4.7%, which is a rather high value due to skills shortages. A simulation of different JVR s given the number of vacancies of 16,333 allows inferring the corresponding total of e-leadership workforce, coming to an estimate of the e-leader population based on vacancies and assumed vacancy rate. The following picture summarises the sensitivity within a range of different assumptions. For a publish rate of 50% as assumed above, and the given number of vacancies, the number of e-leaders would amount to 326,710 if a 5% vacancy rate were true, and to 816,775 if 2% of e-leadership positions were vacant. Highlighting some more extreme assumptions, if the publish rate were 25% and the vacancy rate at 2%, the number of e-leaders would be given as 1.6 million, whereas for a publish rate of 75% and a vacancy rate of 5% it would accrue to only 218,000. An online vacancy based estimation of the population of e-leadership positions in EU28 - simulation for publish rates and vacancy rates Assumed publish rate for e-leadership % 33% 50% 66% 75% 0 2,0% 2,5% 3,0% 3,5% 4,0% 4,5% 5,0% Assumed vacancy rate for e-leadership positions 14

15 2.5 Conclusions EUROPEAN COMMISSION So far, it has become quite obvious that a statistic that might present a reliable figure of the status quo of e-leadership skills present in the current workforce is not available. To arrive at order-of-magnitude estimations, bold assumptions need to be made to arrive at figures of labour market incidence. Different estimations that we have carried out, however, seem to support the presumption that the order of magnitude of digital leadership skills in the EU lies at roughly 600,000 digital innovation leaders. It has to be stressed that this figure is very tentative and that without actual measurement of skills no statistical detection of growth or decline of these skills in the workforce is possible. Open vacancy measurement, however, is possible, some assumptions applying. This statistic is giving us a comparably robust demand metric, and given scenarios of a range of sensible vacancy rates, these numbers do not contradict the order of magnitude assessment made. 2.6 Forecasting Future (expansion) demand rate indicators are not available either, which would be necessary to build a forecasting model. In such a situation, one can only resort to using scenarios instead. The IT profession has seen workforce growth of 40% or annual rates of 3.5% on average over the last decade. Modelling demand growth rates of 3%, taking also account of replacement demand, results in a need to refresh the digital leadership workforce with 40,000 to 50,000 new innovation leaders annually for the next few years. So while any indication for future demand is very speculative, it might be correlated with future demand for tech jobs, the forecast of which is part empirical, part model based. A good forecasting model would obviously also model supply inflows, to arrive at a demand supply (im-) balance result, stating a gap or oversupply to inform policy makers about any necessary action. However, no supply side inflow indicators are available, and more so, they are even conceptually in short supply as we need to better understand the ways in which digital leaders are made. It is therefore, for the time being, impossible to say to what extent demand will be met. To have flow data feeding into the forecast model we need to be able to answer the question where do recruits for digital leadership jobs actually come from. There certainly is no direct graduation in innovation leadership (although nominally there may be), equipping graduates with immediate qualification for these kinds of jobs, but proving fit for digital leadership, in enterprises for sure, will consist of education and experience on the job and career evolution. Whereas in start-ups, being an innovation leader might not be based on any such credentials but on entrepreneurial spirit paired with tech skills regardless of their coincidental acquisition channel. This situation makes it as yet impossible to model certain annual flows based on actual data. While acknowledging that we do not know enough about digital leadership skill formation and recruitment, we can nevertheless model the production of such skills as if we knew where they came from, and then examine results for socially optimal HR investment given a certain demand. 15

16 Modelling demand growth based on a modest growth scenario (2% CAGR) Expansion demand Replacement demand Jobs held by 2016 workforce Demand total Replacement demand 3.3% In the above scenario, 317,000 new digital leaders will need to emerge until 2025, or 35,200 per year on average. The detailed model calculations can be found in the table below. Modelling job growth based on a modest demand growth scenario (2% CAGR) and anticipated supply Jobs 600, , , , , , , , , ,794 Jobs held by 2016 workforce 600, , , , , , , , , ,800 Vacancies 16, Demand total 616, , , , , , , , , ,794 Demand growth as per scenario Replacement demand Expansion demand ,800 19,800 19,800 19,800 19,800 19,800 19,800 19,800 19,800 16,500 14,330 14,118 13,268 10,933 13,383 13,651 13,924 14,202 14,486 New demand 16,500 34,130 33,918 33,068 30,733 33,183 33,451 33,724 34,002 34,286 To be educated, cumulative Replacement demand cumulative 16,500 50,630 84, , , , , , , , ,800 39,600 59,400 79,200 99, , , , ,200 16

17 Expansion demand cumulative New supply need fully anticipated 16,500 30,830 44,947 58,216 69,149 82,532 96, , , ,794 50,630 33,918 33,068 30,733 33,183 33,451 33,724 34,002 34,286 34,576 Changing the growth parameter to 3% will result in a need for 42,510 new recruits per year. As mentioned before, these scenarios merely depict possible futures and rely on model input that can hardly be based on empirical evidence. 2.7 Using the e-leadership scoreboard as a proxy for direct measurement The e-leadership scoreboard has been developed in the LEAD study 12 with the aim to monitor progress in e- leadership skills development, beyond the mere quantification of workforece, covering areas of the e- leadership eco-system including: e-leadership education, Scope of the workforce with e-leadership potential Structural variables enabling the exploitation opportunities of e-leadership, and e-leadership enabling policies or other driving mechanisms. It uses indicators from primary and secondary sources to compare e-leadership performance of EU Member States and identify relative strengths and weaknesses of e-leadership eco-systems between countries, so as to inform policy discussion at national and EU level. The scoreboard has been updated in the ongoing study and new data has been fed into the data base. The scoreboard is intended to measure the factors likely to affect demand and supply for e-leadership skills in each country and provide insights into how countries perform in distinct e-leadership domains that translate into abilities to exploit innovation opportunities for business growth, and suggests avenues for future activity. In total 24 indicators are organised in four dimensions, and divided into several building blocks which are depicted in the two following pictures. 12 For the full methodology and results, please refer to the report mentioned in footnote 1 17

18 e-leadership skilling Number of Master's or Exec Ed level programmes with a mix of ICT and business E-leadership candidate programmes Enterprises that provided training to ICT/IT specialists to develop/upgrade ICT skills Quality of management schools e-leadership skilled professionals Line managers ICT managers, architects and analysts e-leadership pipeline e-leadership pipeline 1: ICT practitioners - professional level e-leadership pipeline 2-1: ICT graduates e-leadership pipeline 2-2: Business administration graduates Business environment High growth enterprises n ICT sector High growth enterprises in ICT intensive sectors Employment in ICT sector 18

19 e-leadership skilling Employment in ICT intensive sectors Enterprises that employed ICT/IT specialists Innovation opportunities State of cluster development Capacity for innovation Firm-level technology absorption Impact of ICT on new services and products Technology trends Availability of latest technologies Enterprises using social networks Enterprises using RFID technologies National policy and stakeholder initiatives ICT Practitioner Skills e-leadership education and training Skills for digital entrepreneurship The scoreboard indicators can be used not only to benchmark and compare country performance, but we argue that it can also be used to produce an outlook on the likely future development of e-leadership skill supply in the respective countries based on developments visible today which have a likely impact on the future. We divide the indicators used in the scoreboard into lagging and leading indicators. A term used predominantly in finance, a lagging indicator describes phenomena that are preceding the indicator incidence by a certain time. For instance, the unemployment rate tends to be a lagging indicator of economic performance, with the labour market reacting to economic growth, or slump, with a certain delay. Similarly, we argue that the indicators under the heading business environment and innovation opportunities can be viewed as a consequence of e-leadership being practiced. The indicators that are under the heading of e-leadership skilled professionals can be understood as coincident indicators, i.e. indicators that are correlated in the same time interval, as they represent an economy s status of professionalisation of management and IT. They shall also be grouped with the lagging indicators to work as a proxy measure to assess e-leadership accomplishment. The following table collates the accomplishment index values for all countries as a simple average of the three indicator groups. 19

20 Lagging Indicators: Accomplishment index as a proxy for e-leadership accomplishment Accomplishment e-leadership skilled Business professionals pool environment Innovation opportunities Average AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK EU SE NL FI UK LU BE IE DE DK AT FR EE MT EU SI CZ LV LT ES PT HU CY SK IT HR PL BG RO GR 7,99 7,90 7,67 7,56 7,44 7,07 6,84 6,77 6,14 6,05 5,87 5,52 5,32 4,90 4,85 4,47 4,17 4,05 3,77 3,62 3,39 3,29 3,19 3,00 2,56 2,46 2,44 2,11 1,65 Leading indicators on the other hand are indicators that are correlated with later instances of the phenomenon represented. E-Leadership skilling, as an input to e-leadership skills creation, naturally precedes the execution of e-leadership. The same holds true, arguably, for indicators that measure the ool of potential (later) e-leaders and the maturity of policies fostering e-skills and e-leadership skills. 20

21 Leading Indicators: Preparedness index as a proxy for future e-leadership Preparedness e-leadership skilling e-leadership pipeline Policy Average AT BE BG CY CZ DE DK EE ES FI FR GR HR HU IE IT LT LU LV MT NL PL PT RO SE SI SK UK IE UK DK FI NL BE MT AT FR SE DE ES EE PL SI LU HR LT HU PT BG CZ LV CY IT SK GR RO EU 6,12 5,98 5,44 5,39 5,31 5,19 4,98 4,67 4,48 4,41 4,39 4,04 4,02 3,78 3,77 3,47 3,44 3,33 3,24 3,00 2,97 2,89 2,88 2,80 2,67 2,64 1,67 4,11 8,04 EU A simple plotting of the country averages of the two variable groups, named preparedness and accomplishment index, is done in the following. Taking the EU average as a benchmark and connecting the EU values to the charts origin (0;0), we derive a benchmark line that divides expectations for likely future performance from today s performance. It may be argued that a relatively higher preparedness index value (i.e. North of the benchmark line) relates to a likely better future outlook, the country is prepared to grow beyond its current status (or, more correctly, beyond the European average expectation given their departure point). This outlook can be measured as distance from the benchmark line and is highest currently for Ireland, followed by Poland, Croatia, Greece and Spain. At the other end of the spectrum, future preparedness (i.e. talent pipeline and policies) are least likely to be fit for expansion, or potentially not even for sustaining status-quo, in countries such as Luxembourg, Sweden, Germany and the Netherlands. 21

22 e-leadership Preparedness EUROPEAN COMMISSION Plotting of preparedness index with accomplishment index and benchmarking an innovation leadership skills outlook 9 8 Dedicated to Lead IE Potential to Leap DK MT AT FR ES EU PL EE SI HR HU LT PT BG LV CY CZ GR IT SK RO DE UK FI BE NL LU SE Risk of Complacency e-leadership Accomplishment 2.8 Towards recommendations and actions Initial set of recommendations and actions Focussing on strategic priorities is needed to meet the ambitious targets. These together with recommendations were firstly derived from those identified in relevant precursor studies and activities including the European e-leadership Initiative which started in 2013 (see and which was continued in 2014 by also addressing SME and start-ups ( and ended in late 2015 and the KETs Skills Initiative ( Vision and sectoral pilot on skills for key enabling technologies ) which ended in Secondly, these recommendations have been validated, enhanced and further developed in discussions and consultations with stakeholders by what the experts envisage as relevant and most important strategic priorities and recommendations addressed to different policy makers and stakeholders at all levels and the necessary actions resulting from these Conclusions and consolidated recommendations and actions (Status: November 2016) The fourth workshop was consulting experts on recommendations which they were asked to formulate as potential policy actions with an interest in delivery, scalability and sectoral focuses, aiming at new skills development and the strategy to achieve this. Preference was to be given to joint activities with Member States able to make use of existing European Commission funding instruments. 22

23 A group of experts has been invited to this workshop to critically review the approach, the methodology and the preliminary results including a proposal for a Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy Agenda for Europe 2020 and Beyond and come to an agreement of how best to proceed. The final results will then be integrated into the final version of a proposal for a European agenda on Leadership Skills for the High-Tech Economy for Europe 2020 and beyond. The objectives are to shape policy recommendations with a view to reach commitment for action among all relevant stakeholders at EU and national level. The tabular overview below now reflects the current state-of-the-play in the development of strategic priorities, recommendations and actions for inclusion into the Leadership Skills for Digital and Key Enabling Technologies The revised overview of recommendations as of November 2016 is as follows: 23

24 Strategic Priority Monitoring, benchmarki ng and forecasting [1] Recommendat ion Domain Definitions, segmentation s and classifications regarding innovation leadership skills for the high-tech economy [1.1] Innovation leadership scoreboard and index & new approaches for measurement s and quantification [1.2] Innovation leadership scoreboard and index & new approaches for measurement EUROPEAN COMMISSION Recommendation / Action (in brackets: reference to Target groups numbering of the original recommendations) Definitions, segmentations and classifications regarding innovation leadership skills for the hightech economy: Engage with a broader set of stakeholder groups to sharpen definitions and metrics for high-tech leadership and innovation skills. Refine and re-define the IT workforce and IT profession based on developments and trends in technology, industry and businesses. Develop new and innovative approaches for the definition of leadership and innovation skills. Elaborate on the implications on the ISCO classification and competence frameworks like the e- CF and the associated development of EU ICT Professional profiles as part of the activities of the CEN Workshop on ICT Skills. Innovation leadership scoreboard and index: Continuously update e Leadership indicators and expand towards leadership skills for the high-tech economy going beyond digital but also including other technology domains of European strengths, e.g. photonics, nano electronics, robostics etc. Continuously develop related scoreboards and an index in a coordinated Europe-wide activity reaching beyond European countries involving relevant stakeholders and regularly and continuously report about the results. New approaches for the measurement and quantification of workforce, demand, supply and forecasting of innovation leadership skills for the high-tech economy: Develop new and innovative approaches, indicators, algorithms and methodologies for the estimation of the ICT workforce (e-skills) and the high-tech leadership skills, workforce, (excess) demand, supply National employment agencies and governments, industry, education and training institutions including higher and executive, vocational and secondary education levels throughout Europe, CEN European and national governments, policy makers and key stakeholders throughout Europe and beyond European Commission, national employment agencies and governments, Eurostat, research and Leading (& other) relevant stakeholder groups European Commission, CEN, include new players and actors already active in the field European Commission European Commission, providers of multilingual CV parsing and semantic search in big data sources, Activities requiring dedicated budget Pan-European project European study to develop indicator, scoreboard and index updates differentiating between innovation leadership accomplishment and preparedness for the future Pan-European or even global project Timeline Target / Output / Success criteria Design of a pan- European scheme: 2 years starting 2017 Annual activity; Design of a pan- European / global activity: 2 years starting 2017 Clear and agreed definitions and metrics for measuring innovation leadership skills and their implications on innovative job profiles. Annual publication of scoreboard and analysis report published on European Commission DG GROW web portal starting 2017 Observatory mechanism regularly and continuously offering up-todate and differentiated demand, supply 24

25 Strategic Priority Recommendat ion Domain s and quantification [1.2] World class best practices repository [1.3] EUROPEAN COMMISSION Recommendation / Action (in brackets: reference to Target groups numbering of the original recommendations) and forecasting figures based amongst others - on comprehensive vacancy data sources. Provide estimates, data and results according to categories and groups of workers differentiated by skills levels and skill sets to allow for a more differentiated analysis and the identification of structural changes in the workforce over time. Think in terms of clusters of competences and develop approaches to define future-oriented sets/bundles of competences and skills instead of using existing occupations. Link these to HR in companies and start using these for teaching and training at higher and executive but also VET institutions. Present results differentiated and disaggregated by gender where possible. Seek cooperation with key players in the online vacancy data market including global business-oriented social networking service operators (e.g. LinkedIn) offering relevant data covering (many) European countries and beyond. World-class best practices repository: Develop an online repository of best practices on high-tech economy innovation leadership skills and talent development and conduct a continuous and regular monitoring, updating and analysis reporting. consulting organisations, industry Industry, education and training providers at all levels, national governments, key stakeholders and associations Leading (& other) relevant stakeholder groups matching tools and labour market statistics to accelerate and improve the process of matching demand and supply in the job market, experienced research and consulting organisations in this area, global businessoriented social networking service operators (e.g. LinkedIn) European Commission Activities requiring dedicated budget Pan-European project Timeline Target / Output / Success criteria Design of a pan- European activity: 2 years starting 2017 and forecasting information, data and statistics on innovation leadership Operational innovation leadership best practices repository covering Europe and beyond (e.g. USA, Canada, 25

26 Strategic Priority Industry, education and training [2] Recommendat ion Domain European observatory: one-stop-shop gateway to high-tech economy talent monitoring, benchmarking and forecasting [1.4] New lifelonglearning partnerships and players EUROPEAN COMMISSION Recommendation / Action (in brackets: reference to Target groups numbering of the original recommendations) e-skills and Innovation Leadership Observatory Mechanism: Continuously update figures on e-skills, digital skills, innovation leadership skills for the high-tech economy workforce development, demand, supply figures and forecast figures for EU28 and each Member State individually. Establish and operate a European Observatory Mechanism as a European Commission one-stop-shop gateway building on available and new complementary activities to support evidence-based policy making by the European Commission and Member State governments. Universities as lifelong-learning institutions, new partnerships and players: Universities should be playing a more active role in industry-related talent development through more rapidly aligning curricula and programmes to emerging skill requirements and also become an accepted training provider for professionals and executives in industry and offer training courses (also addressed to SMEs) in addition to their general Higher Education mission addressed to Bachelor and Master students. representing the above actors at European and national level European Commission, national governments, Eurostat, Cedefop Universities, business schools, further training institutions Leading (& other) relevant stakeholder groups Industry, academia, industry and professional associations, wider public Universities, business schools, further training institutions Activities requiring dedicated budget Pan-European project Development and implementation activities could apply for funding through national programmes or European programmes like Erasmus+ Timeline Target / Output / Success criteria Design of a pan- European activity: continuous activity starting 2017 Japan, China, South Korea etc.) with implemented mechanism for regular monitoring, updating and analysis reporting. Operational online European e-skills and Innovation Leadership observatory mechanism accessible through a onestop-shop gateway. Start 2017 Start in 2017 with first results in