Daniel S. Hain, Jesper L. Christensen, Roman Jurowetzki
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1 The Value of Human Capital Signals for Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty An analysis of foreign venture capital investments in Europe and sub-saharan Africa Daniel S. Hain, Jesper L. Christensen, Roman Jurowetzki Daniel S. Hain Assistant Professor, PhD. Department of Business and Management, Aalborg University, DK
2 This Paper: In a nutshell? Venture capital Investors: Blend of financial, technological, financial knowledge Equity investments in uncertain start-ups with high growth potential Human capital generic VC Experience General Contextual Contextual Uncertainty Human capital specific
3 Background: Venture Capital in Emerging Economies Summary: We know nothing about VC in emerging economies Hain, D. S.; Johan, S. A. & Wang, D., 2017: Determinants of Cross- Border Venture Capital Investments in Emerging and Developed Economies, Journal of Business Ethics, 138, pp
4 Background: Global Venture Capital earlier this decade Schertler, A. & Tykvová, T. 2010: What lures cross-border venture capital inflows? ZEW Discussion Papers
5 Background: VC in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) recently KINGS countries (Ndemo, 2017)
6 Sendy: Uber-like on demand delivery The Emerging Entrepreneurial Ecosystem in SSA Zipline: Drone-delivery of medicine KHi: App that overcomes ack of physical address BRCK: backup generator for the internet Ushahadi: Open source software for information collection, visualisation, and interactive mapping
7 The Emerging Entrepreneurial Ecosystem in SSA, cont d Bottom up emerging ecosystem Vivid mix of foreign / local support institutions, investors ect. Link function of VCs But that s another story Park, E.; Martins, R.M; Hain, D. S. & Jurowetzki, R.2017: Entrepreneurial Ecosystem for Technology Start-ups in Nairobi: Empirical analysis of Twitter networks of Start-ups and Support organizations, 2017, IKE Working Paper Series
8 What is going on? Who invests? In what? And why? Foreign Knowledge Base Developing Market/Needs: Aid or Aid-characteristic Investments Foreign Knowledge Base Advanced Markets/Needs: FDI like investments by MNE Local Knowledge Base Developing Market/Needs: Creative tapping into local markets Local Knowledge Base Advanced Market/Needs: Frugal innovation and local creativity fit for world market Hain, D. S. & Jurowetzki, R. forthcoming: Local Competence Building and International Venture Capital in Low Income Countries - Exploring Foreign High-Tech Investments in Kenya s Silicon Savanna, Journal of Small Business and Enterprise Development Park, E.; Hain, D. S. & Jurowetzki, R.2016: Entrepreneurial Upgrading: Exploring the Interplay between Global Finance, Knowledge Flows, and Technology-Driven Venture Creation in Kenya, IKE Working Paper Series
9 Context Reduction: VC investment decision making in uncertain environments Foreign VC in important driver for growth-oriented, technology firms developing countries (Meuleman et al., 2017) Characteristics of KINGS economies (Investor perspective) high political and market instability (EY, 2016) Underdeveloped investor and property protection Peng (2001) Corruption (Johan and Najar, 2010) Vastly diverging business models, ethics, practices (Ahlstrom and Bruton, 2006; Dai and Nahata, 2013). Consequence: High uncertainty So, why do VCs invest, and how?
10 Founders & Funders: First Insights Exploiting the rich graph structure of CB Education in top university as well as management experience in MNEs quite common Motivation for this paper (finally)
11 Theory I: Investment decision making under uncertainty Capital market (information) inefficiencies / information asymmetries (Jaffee and Russell, 1976) Bounded rationality (Simon, 1955): investment complexity tends to exceed capacity to fully process and evaluate the available information. Cognitive biases (McFadden, 2001) caused by beliefs, historical experiences ect. Behavioral economics insights: Reliance on simple heuristics/rules-of thumb, derived by easily assessable signals (Tversky and Kahneman, 1974, 1992). Experience effect: over time, investors develop more nuanced heuristics, more sophisticated and contextual decision making procedures (Hain & Mas Tur, mimeo) Nuances: General vs. contextual experience Hain, D. S. & Mas Tur, E. mimeo, Investments on a Rugged Landscape: The Effect of Investor Population, Network Structure, and Complexity on Technological Change, under review
12 Theory II: Human Capital signals Due to informational deficiencies, under uncertainty start-ups need to communicate their merits to financiers with more effort With unceasing uncertainty and/or information asymmetries, increasing reliance on quality signals (Podolny, 1993), eg. patents (Harhoff, 2011; Häussler et al., 2014) In VC: highest importance of HC signals of the entrepreneurial team (Hsu, 2007; Mason and Stark, 2004). Distinction: Generic HC: Eg. Educational achievements; Sound signal. Easily accessible signal of high importance for VCs Yet, also less predictive for success (Hsu, 2007) Specific HC: Former managerial (Gimmon and Levie, 2010) and entrepreneurial (Dimov, 2010) experience Noisy signal.
13 Hypotheses? VC-Expgen*HCgen*Unc + VC-Expcont*HCspec*Unc ++ VC Experience General Contectual Human capital generic Contextual Uncertainty + Human capital specific
14 Data Crunchbase: Community curated Investment Database of Techcrunch, increasing popularity in VC research (eg. Croce et al., 2016; Cumming et al., 2016; Ter Wal et al., 2016). Our Sample: Equity investments in KINGS (149) vs. EU (167) by the same investors (pre-psm) Observable heterogeneity of deal and founder characteristics between EU and KINGS KINGS EU
15 Econometric Strategy Aim: Identifying drivers of VCs investment decision making under high uncertainty Common approach: VC surveys (e.g., Fiet, 1995; Mason and Stark, 2004) Assumes that expressed=actual preferences, which might be questionable (Zacharakis and Meyer, 1998; Zacharakis and Shepherd, 2001) Our approach: Analyze revealed preferences investments Problem: Only realized investments observed Solution: Case-control setup (eg. Sorenson & Stuart, 2008) Unit of observation: Dyadic relationship VC PC, controlling for deal characteristics PSM matching of 1 observed VC PC dyad with 5 similar but unobserved ones. Since all PC obtained finance, we can (only) investigate preferences of particular VC in a PC Then: contrast investments of the same VC in EU vs. KINGS countries to disentangle the effect of uncertainty
16 Independent Variables Generic HC signals: Years of education in top 100 university (max.) Specific HC signals: Years of professional experience in F500 company (max) + former founding experience Status: Mentions of venture in media General VC experience: Number of VC investments (last 10 years) Contextual VC experience: Number of VC investments in DC (last 10 years) + the usual deal level controls (stage, USD invested, number of investors) + country and time fixed effects.
17 Results Path dependencies of DC country choice VC geographical specialization
18 Results cont d (interactions) In a nutshell: clear differences between EU and KINGS EU KINGS EU KINGS Generic VC knowledge * Generic HC: No effect Specific HC: KINGS + Contextual VC knowledge * Generic HC: KINGS -- Specific HC: KINGS ++ Context VC exp Generic VC exp
19 Conclusion Implications Theory: Disentangling the effects of investors knowledge base, generic and specific HC and uncertainty surrounding the decision making process Policy: EC: Returnee policies, expat programs design, student mobility to attract foreign VC DC: VC internationalization policy, how to enable inexperienced VCs to venture out. Secondary effect of short-term knowledge immigration Start-Ups: Which HC aspects to pronounce when pitching to different VCs, and where to pitch Way ahead Network effect as alternative explanation, how to disentangle? Establishing a baseline of non-investments Disentangling signaling vs. performance effect of foreign experience Question: How are PCs / products / technologies receiving investments foreign / experienced VCs different (markets, knowledge, impact, performance, innovation )
20 RJ DSH EKP -Fin-
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