The Road Ahead. How North American Brokers and Shippers. See the Next 12 Months. Nov. 7, William Cassidy

Transcription

1 Nov. 7, 2017 The Road Ahead How North American Brokers and Shippers William Cassidy See the Next 12 Months Senior Editor, Trucking and Domestic Transportation, JOC, IHS Markit Roxanne Bullard Director, Voice of Customer-Customer Success, Truckstop.com Gail Rutkowski Executive Director, NASSTRAC, and President, Wabash Worldwide Logistics Chris Borroughs Senior Director, Government Affairs, Transportation Intermediaries Association

2 Introduction & Overview Four Top Takeaways from Survey: All respondents believe trucking rates will rise, but logistics service providers expect higher and broader rate increases than their shipper customers, including higher intermodal pricing. Truckload capacity has already tightened considerably from 2016, and will only get tighter in Again, shippers and LSPs differ over just how tight capacity will get in the next year. Nearly three-quarters of LSPs plan to increase technology spending, compared with only 37 percent of shippers, suggesting shippers are turning to logistics partners for technology. Logistics providers believe shippers are unprepared for changes the electronic logging mandate will bring to supply chains.

3 Who Did We Survey? Shippers: A diverse group by company type

4 Who Did We Survey? More large shippers, mid-sized LSPs

5 Who Did We Survey? Domestic truckload, LTL shippers predominate

6 Freight Volumes, Rates: Up, Down or Flat in next six months?

7 Freight Volumes Shippers expect flat traffic, except in truckload freight

8 Freight Volumes LSPs foresee gains in truckload, LTL, intermodal freight

9 Freight Rates: Truckload LSP rate expectations higher than shipper forecasts

10 Freight Rates: LTL Softer increase, but LSPs foresee bigger price hikes

11 Freight Rates: Ground Parcel Expectations for flat pricing to moderate increases

12 Top Challenges for 2018: Shippers, LSPs, Carriers

13 Top Challenges for 2018

14 Top Challenges for 2018

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16 Truck Capacity: Tightening, or Not?

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18 JOC Truckload Capacity Index Fleet truck counts at largest carriers drop, stabilize in 2017

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20 The ELD Challenge: A Warning Call to Shippers

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22 ELDs: Shipper Comments 71% of shippers expect a negative impact from ELDs Like any change, capacity will tighten and then grow again as opportunities for jobs and new business open up. I think it is necessary, but it will definitely increase my costs over the next few years. With the update that trucks will not be put out of service for ELD violations until April 2018, I believe this will reduce the (negative) impact from moderate to slight. This will slow down the drivers which will decrease their revenue. In a good way, it might save lives as drivers get more sleep. There are pros and cons to this whole matter.

23 ELDs: Shipper Preparation 20% of shippers had done nothing to prepare for ELDs

24 ELDs: LSP Comments Logistics providers fear shippers underestimate impact Shippers seem to be unconvinced of the impact. I expect capacity leaving the market, slower transit times, and rate increases. Shippers will have to remodel their supply chains and become very driver-friendly. ELDs are still not implemented in a significant portion of the carrier market. There is going to be a truck capacity shortage of significance in the first and second quarter. This is an opportunity for transparency and visibility. I think we ll actually get true data to better determine rates. Shippers will be hurt the most. A major adjustment will have to come in service expectations.

25 Technology: Seeking Solutions

26 Technology: Seeking Solutions

27 LSPs to Spend more on Tech

28 Visibility: More Clarity Needed

29 Download the Road Ahead Whitepaper You may download the whitepaper at the following link:

30 Thank you! William Cassidy Senior Editor, Trucking and Domestic Transportation, JOC, IHS ,1228