The Probability Model of Expectation Disconfirmation Process

Transcription

1 Ep ert Jou rn al o Mark eting Vo lu m e 3 Is sue pp Th e Au thor. Publish ed b Sp rint In v esti. ISS N h ttp://mark eting.ep ertjou rn als.c om The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process Hui-Hsin HUANG * Aletheia Universit Taiwan This paper proposes a probabilit model to eplore the dnamic process o customer s satisaction. Bases on epectation disconirmation theor the satisaction is constructed with customer s epectation beore buing behavior and the perceived perormance ater purchase. The eperiment method is designed to measure epectation disconirmation eects and we also use the collection data to estimate the overall satisaction and model calibration. The results show good itness between the model and the real data. This model has application or business marketing areas in order to manage relationship satisaction. Kewords: epectation disconirmation theor customer s satisaction stochastic model JEL Classiication: M3. Introduction Epectation disconirmation theor Boulding 993; Cadotte Woodru and Jenkins 987; Churchill and Suprenant 98; Oliver ; Oliver and DeSarbo 988; Tse and Wilton 988; i 99; Zeithaml Berr and Para- suraman 988 is to predict that customers make in advance o consumption act as a standard against which customers measure the irm s perormance Oliver It plas an important role in discussing customer satisaction. The higher epectation o actual perormance the customers have the greater the degree o disconirmation that ma happen and this causes a lower satisaction. This model considers satisaction as a unction which includes the dierence between observed outcome product perormance and prior epectations about the outcome s product perormance Kopalle and Lehmann. Thus based on the stochastic concept we propose the probabilit densit unction to eplore the dnamic process that the satisaction is constructed with customer s epectation beore buing and the perceived perormance ater purchase. The paper is organized as ollows: irst we review the previous literature o epectation disconirmation theor and its application o other researches. Secondl we propose our model and describe its assumptions. Thirdl the empirical data will be eamined to estimate the parameters o the model. The results o model calibration will also be demonstrated. Finall the conclusions will be eplored. * Corresponding Author: Hui Hsin Huang Department o Business Administration Aletheia Universit 3Zhenli St. Tamsui Dist. New Taipei Cit Taiwan Article Histor: Received 9 Februar 5 Accepted Februar 5 Available Online 3 March 5 Cite Reerence: Huang H.H. 5. The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process. Epert Journal o Marketing 3 pp. -6

2 Huang H.H. 5. The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process. Epert Journal o Marketing 3 pp. -6. Literature Review.. Epectation Disconirmation Theor Disconirmation o epectations paradigm is conceptualized b Oliver It came rom a subject o stud or antecedents o satisaction Anderson and Sullivan 993. The standard approach to stud the satisaction involves comparison o prior epectations with observed perormance. Thus in this theor the customer s perception o overall satisaction results rom a comparison between epectation and outcome perormance. Thereore epectation and outcome perormance are two important variables which can inluence the judgment o satisaction measure. Because customers satisaction is one o the crucial actor to predict the customer purchase tendenc. To investigate satisaction toward the products is also a main topic in customer behavior research. Based on epectation disconirmation theor a irm can increase satisaction b increasing perceived product perormance or decreasing epectations. In the process o satisaction judgments irst buers ma eperience epectations o the speciic product or service prior to purchase. Second consumption reveals a perceive perormance level o product which is inluence b epectations i the dierence between actual perormance and epectations is perceived as being small. Hence perceived perormance ma increase or decrease directl with epectations as indicated b the arrow drawn rom epectations to perceived perormance. Third perceived perormance ma either conirm or disconirm prepurchase epectation Anderson and Sullivan 993. Fourth satisaction is positivel aected b epectations and the perceived level o disconirmation. When the outcome perormance is object it is diicult to increase the perceived perormance. Thus to decrease epectations is a viable alternative or the irm Kopalle and Lehmann. To sum up epectation disconirmation theor epectations provide a baseline or anchor level o satisaction. It can also be considered as belie probabilities o what the consequence o an event will be Oliver 98. In this research we develop our stochastic model b this view o point... Other Related Research Anderson and Sullivan 993 investigate the linkage between the antecedents and consequences o satisaction. The ind that the perceived perormance which alls short o epectations has greater impact on satisaction and repurchase intentions than perormance which eceeds epectations. And disconirmation is more likel to occur when perormance is eas to evaluate. Kopalle and Lehmann eplore the role o disconirmation sensitivit and perectionism. The results show that customers who have more disconirmation sensitivit or are more satisied when a product perorms better than epected are hpothesized to have lower epectations. In contrast customers who are perectionists have higher epectations than those who are not. Huang and Liu 4 based on dnamical percept o customer satisaction to eplore the disconirmation between epectation o pre-purchase and perceived actual perormance o post-purchase. According to the stimulation o word o mouth in internet on dierent time points the conduct the eperiment in which epectation perceive perormance and reerence point eect are manipulated. The results show that the anchoring eect and disconirmation eect are eited. This stud also inds the cognition inconsistenc among three stages in the eperiment. The perceived perormance-satisaction has less variance in the last stage compared to when it is paired with high-disconirmation in the irst stage whereas perceived perormance-satisaction has more variance when paired with low-disconirmation. In the previous research o customer s satisaction with disconirmation theor there is less research use o stochastic method to eplore customers behaviors. In this methodo we can make calculation and prediction o uture satisaction and behavior b probabilit model development. Thus we propose our model and use real data to test the model validation in the net section. 3. The Model 3.. The Epectation Based on Oliver 98 we consider the epectation is a stochastic concept as a random variable. X ollows normal distribution with the parameters μ and σ. Its probabilit densit unction pd is X ep

3 Huang H.H. 5. The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process. Epert Journal o Marketing 3 pp We also consider α= is the normal distribution with parameter μ α and σ α. The cumulative distribution unction cd o X is X F X In equation Φ is the cumulative distribution unction o the standard normal distribution. 3.. The Outcome Perormance We also consider the outcome perormance is a random variable. ollows another normal distribution with the parameters μ and σ. Its probabilit densit unction pd is ep 3 We also consider β= is the normal distribution with parameter μ β and σ β. The cumulative distribution unction cd o is F 4 In equation 4 Φ is the cumulative distribution unction o the standard normal distribution The Joint Distribution We consider the joint distribution o epectationx and outcome perormance is X ep 5 In equation 5 ρ is the correlation coeicient o α and β and is estimate b E 6 For conditional probabilit densit unction o given b X is X ep 7 In equation 7 8 9

4 Huang H.H. 5. The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process. Epert Journal o Marketing 3 pp. -6 Where and are the mean and standard deviation o given b X. The can be calculated b 8 and 9. The equation 7 demonstrate the concept o epectation disconirmation theor in which the outcome perormance we consider as random variable is inluenced b the prior epectation we consider as random variable. Then according to the conditional probabilit equation 7 we can calculate the dierent level o disconirmation as satisaction or dissatisaction and inall predict the overall satisaction. The detail o the description is in the net section and the real data will be also demonstrated to test this model The Model o Epectation Disconirmation Theor According to epectation disconirmation theor Oliver i the outcome perormance we denote as is larger than epectation we denote as X which is considered as a constant quantit then the customer will eel satis. Thus it can be present in equation. P o X d ep d On the other hand i the outcome perormance we denote as is smaller than epectationwe denote as X which is considered as a constant quantit then the customer will eel dissatis. Thus it can be present in equation. P o X d ep d 4. The Empirical Data Analsis 4.. The Database We use surve data rom customer s satisaction o mobile phone use. This database is got rom a mobile phone retailer compan during Januar to 3 March in 4. This surve is about detecting a new mobile on sale. First the respondents are asked to ulill the questionnaires o the epectation beore the purchase this new mobile phone. Then the data o outcome perormance evaluation and the overall satisaction are collected ater one week. There are 5 customers recruited b the compan and 4 respondents complete the whole process o surve. The respondent rate is 8.4% which includes 487 6% males and 5538% emales. There are 45536% respondents between -3 ages 9849% respondents between 3-4 ages and 5755% between 4-5 ages. The data includes the measurement o the epectation the outcome perormance evaluation and the overall satisaction with Likert seven point scale. The items o epectation and outcome perormance evaluation are developed b Dodds et al.99 such as the product reliable product qualit and service qualit are included in the measurement. The reliabilit o epectation and outcome perormance evaluation demonstrates that the standardized Cronbach s α o epectation and outcome perormance evaluation are respectivel.93 and.96.the overall satisaction is based on Kotler 3 and measured b include using customer complaint rate negative aect/emotions reluctance to switch customer service irst choice and search motivation. The standardized Cronbach s α o overall satisaction is.9. Then we use hal o this data to estimate the parameters o the model and another hal to test the predictive validit. 4

5 Huang H.H. 5. The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process. Epert Journal o Marketing 3 pp The Parameters Estimation We use MLE maimum likelihood estimate to estimate the parameters in our model. Let L denote the total likelihood and n is the sample size. Then n X n i n ep n We dierentiate respectivel regarding μ σ μ σ and ρ set them equal to zero. That is 3 We take the solutions o 3 as MLE or μ σ μ σ and ρ. Finall we use our empirical data which has been described in previous section to estimate these ive parameters. The results are in table. Table. The Parameters Estimate μα σα μβ σβ ρ The Predictive Validit To test the itness o real overall satisaction and the calculation results o probabilit we use the.5 as threshold level o probabilit. Then we calculate the rate o rule itting o all samples and conduct the chisquare testing to test the results which are shown in table. Table. The results o chi-square testing satisaction dissatisaction Fitness rate 97.88% 95.4% X =453 p<. The rate o itness is higher than 95% in all scenarios and the chi-square testing are signiicant. Then prediction analsis shows good itness between the model and the real data.

6 Huang H.H. 5. The Probabilit Model o Epectation Disconirmation Process. Epert Journal o Marketing 3 pp Conclusion The contribution o this research is to propose a stochastic model and use mathematical ormula to demonstrate the epectation disconirmation theor. We also use the real data to test our model and show good itness. This model provides practical application o epectation disconirmation theor. The marketing managers can predict customer s satisaction b estimating their perceived outcome perormance or epectation. To increase the overall satisaction there are two strategies the compan can adopt. One is to control the epectation o customers beore purchasing. The advertising o new product on sale or other promotion tactics pla an important role to inluence customers epectation when new product arrival. Thus these promotion strategies should avoid making much highest epectation that actual product perormance cannot reach. According to disconirmation theor the higher epectation o actual perormance that customers have the greater degree o disconirmation ma happen and this causes the lower the satisaction. Another strateg is to increase the perormance o this new product. Because the overall satisaction is the result o comparing the epectation and product perormance. When the epectation keeps the same quantit the higher perormance ma case higher overall satisaction. In the uture the marketing managers can use these two strategies to increase customers satisaction. The limitation o this research is we use surve data to measure the research variables epectation the outcome perormance evaluation and the overall satisaction in mobile phone market. In the uture other industrial data can also be conduct in this model to predict their business partnership satisaction. There are also some actors we don t consider in our measurement such as brand preerence use eperiments and so on. These actors ma inluence the results o satisaction. Thus in the uture the eperiment method can be conduct to collect the data. Then the other variables which we don t ocus on can be controlled. It case the results o predicting will be more accurate when these disturbance variables are ecluded. Reerences Anderson W. E. and Sullivan W. M The Antecedents and Consequences o Customer Satisaction or Firms. Marketing Science pp Cadotte E. R. Woodru R. B. & Jenkins R. L Epectations and Norms in Models o Consumer Satisaction. Journal o Marketing Research 4 3 pp Churchill G. A. and Carol T. 98. An Investigation into the Determinants o Customer Satisaction. Journal o Marketing Research 9 4 pp Dodds W. B. Monroe K. B. and Grewal D. 99. The eects o price brand and store inormation on buers' product evaluation. Journal o Marketing Research Huang H.H. and Liu C. H. 4.The Epectation Disconirmation Theor and Anchoring Eect on Dnamic Eect o e-wom. Taiwan Journal o Marketing Science pp.7-4. Kopalle K. P. and Lehmann R. D.. Strategic Management o Epectations: The Role o Disconirmation Sensitivit and Perectionism. Journal o Marketing Research 383 pp Kotler P. coor. 3. Marketing Management. Prentice Hall New Jerse. Oliver R. L. and DeSarbo W. S Response Determinants in Satisaction Judgments. Journal o Consumer Research 4 4 pp Oliver R. L. 98. A Cognitive Model o the Antecedents and Consequences o Satisaction Decisions. Journal o Marketing Research 7 4 pp Oliver R. L Satisaction: A Behavioral Perspective on the Consumer. New ork: McGraw-Hill. Tse D. K. & Wilton P. C Models o Consumer Satisaction Formation: An Etension. Journal o Marketing Research 5 pp.4-. William B. Kalra A. Staelin R. and Zeithaml V. A A Dnamic Process Model o Service Qual- it: From Epectations to Behavioral Intentions. Journal o Marketing Research 3 pp.7-7. i. 99. A Critical Review o Consumer Satisaction. Review o Marketing 4 pp Zeithaml V. A. Leonard L. B. and Parasuraman A Communication and Control Processes in the Deliver o Service Qualit. Journal o Marketing 5 pp