Price Optimisation in Practice Stakeholder Views and Key Challenges. Nelson Henwood and John Yick

Transcription

1 Price Optimisation in Practice Stakeholder Views and Key Challenges Nelson Henwood and John Yick

2 Background to Presentation Price optimisation is receiving increasing focus in commodity lines business A broad range of views on the approach Understand stakeholder views via interview Discuss some of the key challenges

3 Who did we speak to? Conducted around 20 interviews A range of stakeholders Within insurers a range of: Ownership structures Distribution channels Classes of business

4 Roadmap What is it? Technical considerations The future? Operational considerations

5 What is Price Optimisation? Method of determining target premiums on an detailed segment basis which satisfies specified objectives and a range of constraints

6 Claims Cost Inputs and Outputs Variable Expenses Propensity to Buy Competitive Position Objectives Constraints Optimisation Algorithm Optimal target contribution to fixed expenses and profit

7 Simple Illustration Contribution to fixed expenses and profit Renewal / quote conversion Contribution ($) Expected contribution Premium ($) Retention / Quote Conversion Expected Contribution Premium Premium

8 The Efficient Frontier A, B and C are efficient rate sets Profit A D B C D is an inefficient rate set Volume (Market share, retention rate)

9 Where is the market at now? We observe a reasonable degree of variation in levels of sophistication reached in: Claims cost modelling Sales performance modelling Understanding of competitive position Some companies appear to do one or two of these things extremely well and this has served them well to date It is recognised that some companies are at quite advanced stages in their use of price optimisation or gearing up to do so Quality modelling of claims cost, sales performance and competitive position is a critical prerequisite to successful application of price optimisation

10 Insurance vs Other Industries It is frequently stated that price optimisation techniques are used extensively in other industries Important to recognise some of the differences with insurance: Intangible. Requires a high degree of trust A social product A grudge purchase Mostly purchased direct from the manufacturer These factors may serve to place constraints on the use of price optimisation techniques within the insurance industry

11 A Place for Optimisation in Your Pricing Philosophy Engaging management Are all dimensions equal? Duration and breadth of relationship Income / wealth Age Prior claims experience Does the ownership structure matter? Existing vs establishing or extending cross subsidies Limiting the movements

12 Price Testing How useful is your data for understanding price elasticity Single price point for a segment at a point in time Rating changes may present an opportunity to test Segment correlation Gaps Dangerous to extrapolate What is price testing?

13 Price Testing (ctd) Some challenges to overcome Philosophical Managing the price offer (quotes vs renewals) Re-shopping System constraints Market position Constant testing within boundaries may be most effective

14 Competitor Data Strong intelligence required More important for quote conversion than renewal modelling Including competitive position in your model The done thing but some challenges to overcome Important to keep understanding up to date Market can move fast!! Reactions to your changes

15 Price Elasticity Modelling Need to very carefully and deliberately model price elasticity when fitting models to the sales experience Renewals vs new business conversion Independent factor only finds the average elasticity for the portfolio Approaches: Large number of interactions Build a CART Mixed model Model the gradient directly A key understanding and challenging to do well

16 The Objective Function What are we trying to optimise? Profit Volume - $, risk counts, member penetration Considerations Single vs multi-year Cross product holdings and potential cross-sell Optimise subject to a cap for existing business Difficult to let business go minimum acceptable renewal rate Limit movements in book rates A balanced portfolio Alignment with the market Maintaining a presence in certain segments Broader organisational imperatives

17 Rating Engine / Price Delivery System The usual considerations: Speed to market Flexibility Rating factors Interactions Some additional considerations: Price testing Live optimisation

18 Additional Challenges with Intermediated Business Elasticity varies by intermediary Discontinuity in price elasticity curve Can be very price inelastic if in the market Price stability highly desirable Broker fees, variable commissions Brokers like to understand the rating structure Misalignment of objectives

19 ..and Commercial Mostly intermediated Competitor information harder to get Non-homogenous risks Underwriter price discretion Data availability and quality Harder to understand cost for long-tail Insurance cycle

20 Transparency of Pricing Policyholders Level of information disclosed in PDS Explaining a price change on renewal Sales and other internal staff Communication and training Brokers & Business Partners

21 Implementation Gaining buy-in Timely decisions on rating Expectations created Risk to reputation Sales process

22 Monitoring Competitor reactions Mix of business Technical premium vs actual Model assumptions vs experience Especially in sales performance Changes in customer behaviour Ability to react quickly Timely reviews and re-optimisation

23 Where to? Heavy use of price optimisation in the UK motor market Similarities and differences to Australia Classes of business Intermediated business Attracting attention

24 Impact on Competitive Landscape Competitiveness of rates by segment Advantage larger players Movement in overall rates Bigger incentive to shop Emergence of aggregators Pricing innovation Other innovation

25 What does this Mean for Pricing Actuaries? Critical to have detailed understanding of components Investment should be here in the first instance One size doesn t fit all Understand cost / benefit Directional signals Recognise limitations Challenges of implementation and execution Monitor well Additional tool to challenge current thinking