USAID Business Enabling Project in Serbia JOB DESCRIPTION AND STATEMENT OF WORK

Transcription

1 USAID Business Enabling Project in Serbia JOB DESCRIPTION AND STATEMENT OF WORK Position: Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist Employer: Cardno Emerging Markets USA Ltd., Washington DC, Belgrade Representative Office Location: Belgrade SCOPE OF WORK About the Project USAID s Business Enabling Project ( USAID BEP ), implemented by Cardno Emerging Markets USA and partners, is a seven year initiative launched in January The purpose of the Project is to help the Government of Serbia improve the competitiveness of the Serbian economy, its macroeconomic position and its private sector businesses. The Project provides technical assistance, training, and other support to improve the business enabling environment, macroeconomic stability, and further develop financial markets. The Project is demand driven: all activities are based on the priorities of the private sector and Government. The project is organized around three components, each implemented by a resident team of Serbian and international professionals: Component 1 Business Regulation and Economic Governance; Component 2 Macroeconomic Policy and Public Financial Management; Component 3 Financial Markets Development. This assignment is part of the project s efforts to quantify its impact. It is related to the activities performed under the Intermediate and Sub-Intermediate Results for the project: Business Enabling Environment Improved, More Effective Business Regulation, Macroeconomic Environment Improved, Improved Fiscal Policy, and Financial Markets Developed. Background to SoW BEP is drawing to a close and will be completed in BEP was very successful over these seven years, and the project has captured many of its results (outcomes and impacts), some of which are listed below. But further work is needed to measure the Project s economic impact and effect on the business environment in Serbia. Results achieved by BEP over the period 2011 to 2016, include:

2 Program budgeting methodology was developed together with GoS; improved capacity of Ministry of Finance (MoF) and 178 direct budget beneficiaries to implement program budgeting - an EU requirement that increases transparency and accountability in public finance. A new Law on Planning and Construction was adopted in December 2014 based on BEP s recommendations and drafting assistance. The law provides for One-Stop-Shops, which allow investors to communicate with only one government office and have authority to monitor compliance of public institutions with legal requirements, particularly statutory deadlines. BEP also helped set up the One-Stop-Shops and the new e-permitting system. A new Labor Law was adopted in July 2014 based on BEP s recommendations. This law has made the labor market more flexible and makes Serbia more competitive for FDI. BEP s analysis and advocacy led the GoS to formally adopt the Inspections Oversight Bill. The National Assembly enacted it in April BEP helped implement the law, which is making inspections more efficient and less burdensome to businesses. BEP's comprehensive study and recommendations for improving SME financing led to several actions being taken by the GoS, including introducing cash-based payment of value added tax for SMEs, abolishing advance VAT payment, reducing waiting times for tax refunds and payments by public enterprises, and eliminating reserve requirements for leasing companies. A total of 138 para-fiscal charges were removed based on BEP s recommendations, and legal principles were introduced to prevent future ad hoc adoption of fees and charges. A new Law on Factoring drafted with BEP s assistance has helped increase business liquidity and expand the factoring industry. Legislation relating to leasing has been amended, making it easier and cheaper to obtain leases of equipment and other property. BEP s assistance to draft and implement the Capital Markets Law and by-laws contributed to a sound, transparent regulatory framework. BEP helped the Public Debt Authority reduce the risk and cost of borrowing for the GoS through use of better IT tools and enhanced staff capacity. BEP s analysis and advocacy led the GoS to prioritize establishment of non-deposit-taking non-bank institutions. BEP is helping the MoF and National Bank to develop regulations to enable such financial institutions. The GoS has made tackling the shadow economy one of its key priorities, thanks to BEP's study on Serbia s informal economy, and several actions have been taken to reduce the shadow economy (including inspections reform as discussed above). BEP is working with the MoF and the National Bank to improve collateral valuation: a real estate transactional database is under development, and a Working Group is drafting National Valuation Standards and regulations to improve the valuer profession. USAID BEP has a Performance Monitoring Plan (PMP) that sets forth the procedure for monitoring, evaluating, and measuring the results of BEP s interventions and is the vehicle to

3 track the progress towards each of the tasks defined in the BEP s task order and yearly work plans. The PMP is designed to capture progress toward each of the Intermediate Results. All of the indicators measuring the Intermediate and Sub-Intermediate Results are impact indicators that evaluate the substantive impact the project will have at the end of seven years, since the PMP presents objectives, indicators, measurement units, data collection methodology, schedule of collection, baselines and targets over seven years of the project. The overall M&E approach ensures performance measurement and analysis embodied in the following functions: reportability, effectiveness, resourcefulness and efficiency. USAID BEP s Indicators have been selected from a number of resources that measure effectiveness in areas relevant to USAID s strategic goals, including: competitiveness; ease of doing business; financial market sophistication; and investment. These sources include World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Indicators, OECD, International Budget Partnership, World Bank Doing Business, and Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) indicators. The project also conducts custom project surveys, standard cost modeling and analyses where adequate measurements of project related objectives are not available. Finally, the project utilizes published reports and statistics produced by the GoS and other sources where available as baseline and target measurements. But the PMP does not provide a complete picture of BEP s impact. The PMP does not allow measurement of the economic impact of the project, i.e. economic benefits like growth and jobs. It does not enable a thorough evaluation of the effectiveness of the project. Thus, to capture all quantitative impacts of the BEP s activities, BEP will conduct an economic impact study. The study will aggregate project level monitoring and evaluation and non-project results. These systems assume that program strategies are based on hypotheses that need to be tested and that projects serve this broader purpose, rather than being aimed solely at achieving their specific objectives. In order to draft the BEP impact study, additional program measurement systems are needed beyond project M&E that will aggregate project level monitoring and evaluation and non-project results. These systems assume that program strategies are based on hypotheses that need to be tested and that projects serve this broader purpose, rather than being aimed solely at achieving their specific objectives. BEP also seeks to understand the reasons for its economic impact and the effectiveness of its approaches and tools.

4 The USAID Automated Directives System (ADS) 203 defines impact evaluations as those that measure the change in a development outcome that is attributable to a defined intervention. Impact evaluations are based on models of cause and effect and require a credible and rigorously defined counterfactual to control for factors other than the intervention that might account for the observed change. Objective The purpose of the study is to try to quantify BEP s economic impacts to the extent possible. It will test methods, approaches, partnerships, and engagement strategies, presenting the changes that occurred either during or after program implementation. The study will review project activities and outcomes and analyze the impact of those activities and outcomes. The study will give answers to the following questions: What is the overall performance of USAID BEP project in Serbia implemented since 2011? What is the performance of each BEP Task and Activity? What impacts did the project have what economic measurements improved or increased as a result of project activities? What is the dollar value of the project s economic impacts? To what extent were the stated objectives of the project achieved? What were the major issues influencing the achievement or non-achievement of the objectives? What was the impact of project approaches? What can be replicated? Tasks BEP has identified numerous economic indicators and results that could be attributed to some degree to project activities. These indicators still need to be validated and tested; then data must be collected and analyzed. Under this SoW, the Consultant will work with BEP leadership and a Serbian economist to conduct an economic impact study and will provide assistance to BEP leadership to analyze the success and impacts of BEP s approaches and methodologies. The Consultant s detailed responsibilities include the following: Review and develop methodologies and indicators to estimate BEP s economic impact Develop reporting forms; data collection tools, process and performance indicators

5 Clarify and examine to what extent economic growth results can be attributed to the project s logic of intervention (Increase in economic growth/gdp; economic growth or other quantified measure of economic benefit of each reform; sector growth, investment, firm revenues and profitability, income, private sector lending, and perhaps employment and productivity) Develop means to determine attribution of economic results and impacts to project activities and outcomes Conduct the analysis of the impact of the BEP taking into account the views of the relevant institutions, and other stakeholders Discover and analyze other factors that affected projects interventions Produce an impact narrative describing the project's intervention logic Determine whether results would be worth the cost and effort Attribute percentage of increase based on a survey and other factors, including economic models if needed The impact study will include use of existing research conducted by the project, as well as new research as needed. This includes: Standard Cost Modeling (SCM): BEP conducted SCM studies in 2012 and 2015, and the Government of Serbia Public Policy Secretariat will continue conducting this study from now on. SCM is a method for determining the administrative burdens that regulations impose on businesses. The method can be used to measure a single law, selected areas of legislation or gto perform a baseline measurement of all legislation in a country. It provides a quantitative indicator of the cost-savings of reforms, including both money and time (the latter also quantified in monetary terms). SCM was not performed on all reforms that BEP worked on (e.g. inspections and construction permitting were not included) so it is likely that the impact study will need to include further SCM work. Custom Project Surveys: BEP conducts an annual Survey of 1,000 Serbian Businesses These surveys are designed to capture and measure impacts of project related interventions where reliable information and data is not readily available. BEP project surveys include questions and data across all project components and tasks. However, it is likely that to determine attribution of results to project activities, further targeted surveys of businesses will be needed. The Impact Evaluation Expert is expected to assess and evaluate the Project elements on criteria grounded in international best-practice standards, and should rely on the Project indicators and reporting tools, as well as other evaluation tools identified as relevant. The Consultant will work closely with the BEP M&E, CoP, team leaders and task managers.

6 Level of effort Maximum number of days under this LOE cannot exceed 25 days. The Consultant will obtain approval by the USAID BEP authorized representative on the number of days billable for each activity under this SoW and on deadlines for completion of each activity before he/she engages in that activity. Deliverables Recommendations of adequate tools and methodology that can be used to measure impact of BEP activities and outcomes New indicators and methodology to estimate attribution of impacts to BEP activities and outcomes (in cooperation with BEP team) Study of economic impact of BEP activities and outcomes o Written report with evaluation of BEP Project impact and interventions attribution o Presentation of evaluation of BEP Project impact Recommend possible improvements to BEP PMP To Apply Requirements for eligible candidates: Relevant educational background, preferably in economics Proven expertise in development project evaluation and impact analysis, with a minimum 5 years of experience in impact evaluation for economic growth related projects Minimum of 10 years work experience in evaluation/impact assessment Knowledge and experience in applying academic impact evaluation techniques, tools and methodologies Experience in performing impact evaluations of large-scale projects (preferable) Experience in developing or transition economies Excellent communication and presentation skills. 2. Applications including CV clearly showing adequate technical background and relevant work experience should be sent by to: info@bep.rs, by (Close Of Business - day). Only short-listed candidates will be contacted.