OPB FOX 12 Primary Election Survey Democrats (High Turnout)

Transcription

1 May 2016 OPB FOX 12 Primary Election Survey Democrats (High Turnout) Crosstabs Prepared by DHM Research NW 13 th Ave #205 Portland, OR

2 OPB Fox 12 Primary Election Survey General Election May 6-9, 2016;; N=900 How to Read Crosstables: In the example chart (left), rows represent the three possible response options to the question All in all, do you think things are headed in the right direction, or are things pretty much on the wrong track? The three response options are: right direction, wrong track, and don t know. The amounts in each response category sum to the amount in the total row at the top of the table. The first column, or banner, is the Total column. It reflects the overall results. The next two columns reflect the results of a subgroup, Gender. The gender subgroup is composed of Males and Females, each with their own column. Both gender groups are assigned a letter (Male=B, Female=C). These two columns show how male s attitudes compare to female s attitudes. As shown in the chart, 69% of the full sample thinks things are headed in the right direction. Looking at the gender subgroup, 71% of women think things are headed in the right direction, compared to 66% of males. Statistically Significant Differences: If a pair of cells has a difference which is statistically significant, the larger of the two cells is flagged with the letter of the opposite column. The test shows the difference in female s attitudes about things being headed in the right direction is statistically significantly different than those of male s, which is signified by a B (the letter given to Males) next to female s results for right direction. The footnote indicates the level of significance (sig=.05). This level of significance means that 5% of the time, the difference between how the two groups feel about the direction is due to random chance, while 95% of the time the difference is meaningful. Statement of Limitations: Any sampling of opinions or attitudes is subject to a margin of error, which represents the difference between a sample of a given population and the total population. The margin of error is a statistic expressing the amount of random sampling error in a survey's results and differs by sample size, as reflected in the table below. Margin of Error Based on Sample Size N=1200 N=1000 N=800 N=600 N=500 N=400 N=300 N=200 N=150 N=100 N=50 +/- 2.8% +/- 3.1% +/- 3.5% +/- 4.0% +/- 4.4% +/- 4.9% +/- 5.7% +/- 6.9% +/- 8.0% +/- 9.8% +/- 13.8% 2

3 Q5. There is a primary election in Oregon on May 17. Last week, ballots were mailed to registered voters. Have you received your ballot in the mail? Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Yes % 94% 97% 92% 95% 94% 89% 95% 94% 96% 90% 93% 98% No % 6% 3% 8% 5% 6% 11% 5% 6% 4% 10% 7% 2% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 3

4 Q5. There is a primary election in Oregon on May 17. Last week, ballots were mailed to registered voters. Have you received your ballot in the mail? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Yes % 95% 94% 95% 99% 93% 94% 95% 91% 100% 100% 100% 100% 90% 95% 86% 100% 95% No % 5% 6% 5% 1% 7% 6% 5% 9% 10% 5% 14% 5% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 4

5 Q6. Do you plan to vote in the primary election? Base: Those who have not received their ballots Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Yes (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 5

6 Q6. Do you plan to vote in the primary election? Base: Those who have not received their ballots Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Yes (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 6

7 Q7. Which of the follow applies to you: Base: Those who received their ballots Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) You have already L returned your ballot 40% 38% 41% 42% 34% 43% 48% 35% 38% 42% 40% 33% 47% You have received your ballot, but not returned it yet % 86 60% 44 59% % 63% 56% 13 52% 33 57% 66 62% 57 58% 31 60% 77 63% 60 53% You are not planning to vote in this election 2 1% 2 1% % - 2 3% % - Don't know F - - 3IJ % 1% 2% 3% 6% 3% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 7

8 Q7. Which of the follow applies to you: Base: Those who received their ballots Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) You have already D IJ LM - - 8R 96R returned your ballot 40% 40% 54% 32% 39% 40% 50% 37% 22% 18% 100% 46% 42% 31% 32% 9% You have received your ballot, but not returned it yet % 41 57% 30 44% 96C 67% 27 61% 34 60% 25 47% 25 59% 19G 78% 19G 82% - 168KM 100% % % 11 69% 7 68% 12 71% You are not planning to vote in this election 2 1% % % KL 100% O 9% Don't know O 1% 2% 2% 3% 1% 10% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 8

9 Q8. For the Presidential Primary election, do you plan to vote for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? Base: Democrats Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Hillary Clinton GH 59GH 15 59K 62K 45% 43% 50% 44% 39% 49% 8% 24% 55% 57% 26% 45% 54% Bernie Sanders HIJ 35IJ LM % 40% 32% 39% 44% 33% 92% 57% 23% 28% 63% 36% 27% Will skip this contest 5% 6% 7% 2% 5% 6% 5% 5% 6% 4% 7% 4% Don't know G % 11% 11% 15% 12% 13% 14% 17% 9% 7% 12% 15% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 9

10 Q8. For the Presidential Primary election, do you plan to vote for Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? Base: Democrats Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Hillary Clinton L 66-5PR 132NPQ % 43% 55% 41% 46% 46% 48% 42% 45% 23% 58% 39% 26% 55%R Bernie Sanders I NOR 9O 9 38% 39% 34% 39% 44% 39% 36% 37% 26% 58% 35% 38% 46% 30% 86% 86% 48% Will skip this KL O contest 5% 8% 4% 4% 3% 5% 10% 3% 3% 4% 5% 100% 11% 3% 7% 7% 26% Don't know G K % 10% 7% 16% 8% 11% 7% 17% 26% 19% 2% 18% 17% 11% 6% 7% 27% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 10

11 Q9. For the Democratic primary election for secretary of state, do you plan to vote for Richard Devlin, Brad Avakian, or Val Hoyle? Base: Democrats Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Richard Devlin J % 14% 11% 13% 13% 13% 10% 14% 17% 8% 15% 13% 12% Brad Avakian I KL 18% 22% 15% 13% 20% 17% 19% 17% 13% 24% 5% 14% 29% Val Hoyle E % 13% 21% 13% 9% 19% 23% 10% 16% 15% 11% 16% 16% Will skip this H contest 11% 10% 13% 12% 10% 12% 4% 3% 14% 15% 6% 15% 10% Don't know LM % 42% 39% 49% 48% 39% 45% 56% 40% 38% 63% 43% 33% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 11

12 Q9. For the Democratic primary election for secretary of state, do you plan to vote for Richard Devlin, Brad Avakian, or Val Hoyle? Base: Democrats Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Richard Devlin B L % 5% 12% 18% 11% 16% 20% 17% 5% 8% 21% 8% 11% 14% 10% 9% Brad Avakian F 7F L - 48N % 13% 19% 20% 13% 10% 15% 24% 27% 31% 22% 16% 100% 20% 12% 13% 18% Val Hoyle % 18% 16% 13% 19% 13% 16% 20% 15% 11% 21% 12% 14% 16% 18% 11% 5% Will skip this contest 11% 17% 11% 9% 9% 10% 9% 8% 13% 8% 12% 11% 18% 12% 8% 14% Don't know K O 43% 47% 43% 41% 48% 51% 40% 31% 40% 42% 24% 53% 57% 38% 53% 62% 68% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 12

13 Q12. If the general election were held today and the candidates for president were Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Donald Trump BD M 3 6% 4% 13% 3% 7% 5% 5% 2% 9% 5% 8% 8% 2% Hillary Clinton E G 90GH KL 79% 78% 74% 84% 71% 84% 58% 67% 82% 87% 65% 76% 88% Some other candidate IJ 7J % 5% 8% 7% 8% 5% 22% 12% 4% 1% 7% 8% 4% Will skip this I 6IJ - 1 8LM 2 1 contest 3% 5% 4% 4% 3% 9% 10% 1% 13% 1% 1% Don't know F % 7% 5% 3% 10% 3% 6% 8% 5% 5% 7% 6% 5% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 13

14 Q12. If the general election were held today and the candidates for president were Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, who would you vote for? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Donald Trump OPQR % 3% 7% 7% 9% 8% 4% 13% 4% 7% 5% 100% Hillary Clinton EH M NPQ % 82% 79% 77% 68% 74% 88% 70% 88% 74% 85% 77% 100%R Some other candidate NOQR - - 6% 4% 5% 8% 6% 7% 4% 6% 5% 13% 4% 7% 100% Will skip this NOPR - contest 3% 4% 3% 3% 9% 7% 2% 3% 4% 100% Don't know K 2KL NOPQ 6% 7% 6% 5% 8% 4% 2% 11% 3% 13% 1% 7% 100% 100% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 14

15 Q13. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Donald Trump or more because you oppose Hillary Clinton? Base: Those who would vote for Donald Trump Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Support Donald Trump I % 14% 49% 30% 32% 100% 9% 62% 20% 28% 60% Oppose Hillary Clinton 64% 71% 51% 100% 70% 59% 100% 82% 38% 80% 63% 40% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 15

16 Q13. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Donald Trump or more because you oppose Hillary Clinton? Base: Those who would vote for Donald Trump Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Support Donald Trump % 66% 37% 23% 50% 27% 32% 37% 31% Oppose Hillary Clinton 64% 34% 82% 63% 77% 31% 100% 73% 100% 68% 63% 64% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 16

17 Q14. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Hillary Clinton or more because you oppose Donald Trump? Base: Those who would vote for Hillary Clinton Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Support Hillary G 54G Clinton 54% 56% 51% 52% 52% 55% 22% 60% 59% 52% 44% 60% 52% Oppose Donald Trump HIJ % 34% 32% 43% 33% 37% 78% 34% 29% 36% 50% 30% 36% Neither BD 2 12F % 6% 16% 4% 13% 4% 6% 9% 8% 6% 7% 9% Don't know % 4% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4% 3% 4% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 17

18 Q14. Would you say that this vote is more because you support Hillary Clinton or more because you oppose Donald Trump? Base: Those who would vote for Hillary Clinton Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Support Hillary B EI L Clinton 54% 42% 65% 54% 43% 57% 53% 70% 38% 48% 62% 48% 54% Oppose Donald Trump % 46% 28% 35% 41% 35% 38% 27% 34% 47% 29% 41% 36% Neither % 11% 4% 8% 15% 5% 6% 3% 21% 7% 9% 8% Don't know % 1% 3% 4% 3% 3% 7% 5% 3% 2% 3% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 18

19 Q15. Scientists believe that there is a significant chance that Oregon will experience a major earthquake in the coming years. If that were to happen, who would you trust more as President of the United States to help Oregon in the aftermath: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Donald Trump B 7 13F % 3% 12% 9% 10% 4% 5% 2% 9% 7% 6% 9% 4% Hillary Clinton % 75% 79% 75% 73% 79% 64% 73% 79% 78% 78% 73% 79% Don't know 53 33C I % 22% 9% 16% 17% 17% 31% 24% 12% 15% 16% 18% 17% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 19

20 Q15. Scientists believe that there is a significant chance that Oregon will experience a major earthquake in the coming years. If that were to happen, who would you trust more as President of the United States to help Oregon in the aftermath: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Donald Trump OPQR % 9% 5% 6% 13% 5% 5% 11% 7% 4% 7% 7% 73% 2% 4% 7% Hillary Clinton J M NPQ % 74% 80% 76% 71% 75% 87% 76% 81% 58% 82% 74% 18% 90%R 21% 33% 39% Don't know GH KL NO 6NO 11NO 17% 18% 15% 18% 16% 20% 8% 13% 12% 38% 12% 19% 100% 9% 8% 75% 61% 61% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 20

21 Q16. Next, I'd like to ask you about a measure that may be on your ballot in the November general election. I will it exactly as it will appear. Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education; healthcare, senior services A "Yes" vote increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; removes tax limit; exempts "benefit companies"; increased revenue funds education, healthcare, senior services. A "No" vote retains existing corporate minimum tax rates based on Oregon sales; tax limited to $100,000; revenue not dedicated to education, healthcare, senior services. If the election were today, would you vote "Yes" to support the measure or "No" to oppose it? Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Total yes % 67% 73% 69% 67% 71% 60% 78% 71% 64% 77% 69% 65% Yes - certain L % 47% 46% 44% 43% 48% 50% 46% 44% 47% 60% 40% 46% Yes - lean % 20% 27% 25% 23% 23% 10% 32% 27% 17% 17% 29% 19% Total no % 17% 15% 12% 18% 13% 22% 10% 18% 14% 13% 17% 15% No - lean % 4% 8% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 7% 4% 6% 7% 2% No - certain % 13% 7% 8% 14% 8% 19% 7% 11% 10% 7% 10% 13% Don't know I % 16% 12% 19% 15% 16% 18% 12% 11% 23% 10% 14% 20% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 21

22 Q16. Next, I'd like to ask you about a measure that may be on your ballot in the November general election. I will it exactly as it will appear. Increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; funds education; healthcare, senior services A "Yes" vote increases corporate minimum tax when sales exceed $25 million; removes tax limit; exempts "benefit companies"; increased revenue funds education, healthcare, senior services. A "No" vote retains existing corporate minimum tax rates based on Oregon sales; tax limited to $100,000; revenue not dedicated to education, healthcare, senior services. If the election were today, would you vote "Yes" to support the measure or "No" to oppose it? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Total yes B E % 57% 71% 76% 61% 74% 70% 75% 87% 69% 62% 74% 100% 65% 70% 69% 73% 62% Yes - certain % 42% 43% 50% 43% 44% 49% 51% 53% 44% 43% 47% 100% 39% 49% 25% 73% 25% Yes - lean O % 14% 28% 25% 18% 29% 22% 24% 34% 25% 19% 27% 27% 21% 45% 36% Total no 47 17D FI 7 10I 6-6I % 23% 17% 11% 28% 11% 17% 13% 25% 20% 13% 24% 14% 20% 7% 19% No - lean O % 7% 7% 2% 11% 5% 5% 2% 12% 5% 4% 15% 5% 4% No - certain I % 16% 9% 9% 17% 7% 12% 11% 12% 15% 9% 9% 10% 20% 7% 15% Don't know % 20% 13% 13% 11% 15% 12% 12% 13% 6% 18% 13% 11% 16% 10% 21% 19% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 22

23 Q17. Gender Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Male C 125F % 42% 32% 48% 100% 38% 46% 40% 40% 48% 39% 40% Female D E % 58% 68% 52% 100% 62% 54% 60% 60% 52% 61% 60% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 23

24 Q17. Gender Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Male F O 41% 46% 46% 36% 42% 33% 41% 38% 35% 62% 36% 44% 46% 37% 51% 50% 70% Female J R % 54% 54% 64% 58% 67% 59% 62% 65% 38% 64% 56% 100% 54% 63% 49% 50% 30% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 24

25 Q18. Age Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) HIJ LM 9M - 9% 10% 5% 11% 8% 9% 100% 32% 7% GIJ M 39M 8 20% 23% 14% 20% 22% 18% 100% 25% 30% 7% GHJ % 38% 38% 34% 36% 38% 100% 33% 40% 36% GHI 6 31K 66KL 34% 29% 42% 36% 33% 35% 100% 10% 24% 57% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 25

26 Q18. Age Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) D 7 8HI 4 9HI O 2 2 9% 9% 18% 5% 18% 6% 16% 6% 10% 8% 8% 7% 32% 24% 9% B KL O 6NO 5 20% 10% 19% 26% 13% 26% 17% 23% 20% 24% 18% 20% 100% 8% 17% 39% 62% 28% EF 15EF Q % 34% 38% 38% 27% 28% 38% 52% 56% 46% 35% 39% 55% 39% 22% 32% CD P % 47% 25% 32% 42% 40% 29% 25% 24% 24% 37% 34% 29% 38% 7% 14% 31% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 26

27 Q20. Vote History Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) 0 of IJ 6J LM - - 6% 6% 6% 6% 9% 4% 27% 10% 3% 1% 31% 1 of HIJ 8 16J 5 40LM % 11% 16% 14% 13% 13% 42% 13% 14% 4% 69% 2 of IJ 28J 13-75KM - 25% 28% 21% 22% 22% 26% 23% 45% 25% 13% 57% 3 of KM - 18% 15% 20% 23% 18% 19% 9% 19% 21% 18% 43% 4 of GH 66GHI KL 38% 40% 36% 35% 37% 38% 13% 37% 64% 100% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 27

28 Q20. Vote History Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) 0 of GH 6H NOPR 2 6% 11% 4% 4% 14% 10% 2% 5% 7% 5% 5% 4% 56% 9% 1 of % 13% 17% 11% 19% 14% 19% 14% 5% 6% 12% 13% 20% 12% 22% 19% 14% 2 of % 19% 29% 25% 25% 22% 22% 22% 24% 32% 18% 28% 39% 23% 38% 11% 31% 3 of KL % 19% 20% 17% 13% 23% 19% 25% 18% 16% 17% 18% 100% 21% 19% 18% 7% 12% 4 of N % 38% 30% 41% 29% 31% 38% 39% 48% 46% 46% 36% 15% 43% 22% 7% 34% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 28

29 Q21. Area of the state Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Portland Metro CD % 100% 51% 49% 56% 58% 51% 43% 44% 50% 53% Willamette Valley 76-76BD % 100% 20% 29% 15% 18% 26% 31% 29% 24% 24% Rest of State BC % 100% 29% 22% 29% 24% 23% 26% 27% 26% 23% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 29

30 Q21. Area of the state Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Portland Metro EF 15 14E % 44% 46% 55% 31% 41% 50% 65% 55% 63% 48% 51% 100% 34% 50% 43% 73% 63% Willamette Valley J OQ % 27% 23% 26% 29% 35% 20% 28% 24% 8% 26% 26% 53% 24% 31% 23% Rest of State H 14H 17H 3 6 7H % 30% 31% 20% 40% 24% 29% 8% 21% 29% 26% 23% 13% 27% 26% 27% 14% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 30

31 Q22. What is the highest level of education that you have achieved? Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Less than high school 2% 2% 3% 1% 3% 1% 3% 3% 4% 2% 1% High school diploma HI or GED 23% 20% 23% 29% 24% 22% 24% 12% 20% 32% 27% 20% 24% 2-yr degree or IJ college 24% 22% 22% 30% 27% 22% 49% 23% 25% 17% 27% 27% 19% 4-yr degree 88 52D 24D E % 34% 32% 16% 22% 34% 18% 39% 30% 25% 34% 29% 26% Graduate degree K 21% 21% 20% 23% 23% 20% 9% 25% 22% 21% 8% 20% 28% Refused % 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 31

32 Q22. What is the highest level of education that you have achieved? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Less than high 6 6CD school 2% 8% 4% 4% 1% 1% 3% 2% 7% High school diploma 69 69CD FGHI or GED 23% 92% 49%J 15% 26% 9% 9% 8% 25% 21% 13% 24% 17% 21% 28% 2-yr degree or 74-74BD HIJ 19HJ L college 24% 100% 28% 34% 32% 11% 11% 8% 33% 18% 27% 24% 19% 24% 25% 4-yr degree BC E 24EFG 9E OR % 58% 11% 28% 30% 54% 36% 32% 23% 33% 100% 38% 27% 56% 41% 13% Graduate degree BC EFG 12EFGH % 42% 9% 19% 12% 24% 44% 51% 18% 24% 22% 22% 8% 33% Refused % 1% * 1% 7% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR Note: Percentage less than 0.5 printed as *. 32

33 Q23. What was your total household income in 2015? Area Gender Vote History Port- Willa- Rest Age land mette Of Male Fe Total Metro Valley State male of 4 of 4 of Total (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) Less than $25, B I M % 9% 17% 23% 15% 14% 29% 10% 11% 18% 25% 13% 11% $25,000 to less B than $50,000 20% 16% 28% 19% 16% 22% 13% 26% 15% 24% 25% 21% 16% $50,000 to less than $75,000 19% 19% 16% 22% 19% 19% 33% 16% 20% 16% 21% 18% 19% $75,000 to less 44 28D 12D GJ than $100,000 14% 19% 16% 4% 13% 15% 17% 20% 11% 11% 16% 15% $100,000 to less than $150,000 9% 10% 8% 7% 7% 10% 9% 13% 6% 4% 9% 11% More than $150, F % 9% 2% 9% 11% 5% 5% 9% 9% 5% 2% 8% 9% Refused % 18% 13% 15% 18% 15% 19% 15% 12% 20% 11% 16% 19% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EF, GHIJ, KLM 33

34 Q23. What was your total household income in 2015? Education Returned Ballot Income Q12: Trump Vs. Clinton H.S. --- Not Yet Not Grad Some Coll $25K- $50K- $75K- $100K- $150K Returned Planning Clin- Total Or < Coll Grad+ <$25K $50K $75K $100K $150K Or > Ballot Ballot To Vote Trump ton Other Skip Und Total % 100% 100% 100% 100% (B) (C) (D) (E) (F) (G) (H) (I) (J) (K) (L) (M) (N) (O) (P) (Q) (R) Less than $25, D 12D 9 44FGHI O 4 15% 31% 17% 6% 100%J 15% 16% 21% 13% 14% 41% 20% $25,000 to less EGHI than $50,000 20% 15% 28% 19% 100%J 20% 20% 26% 19% 22% 41% 13% $50,000 to less EFHI than $75,000 19% 20% 25% 16% 100%J 24% 15% 11% 21% 13% 11% 7% $75,000 to less BC EFGI KL 6O than $100,000 14% 6% 7% 23% 100%J 14% 15% 100% 30% 13% 14% 28% $100,000 to less BC EFGH than $150,000 9% 3% 4% 14% 100%J 5% 11% 6% 10% 7% 5% More than $150, BC EFGH 4 19K % 2% 3% 12% 100%I 4% 11% 7% 16% 17% Refused 48 17D % 23% 17% 11% 20% 12% 5% 18% 15% 7% 10% (sig=.05) (all_pairs) columns tested BCD, EFGHIJ, KLM, NOPQR 34