Lærdommer fra den tyske energitransisjonen

Transcription

1 Lærdommer fra den tyske energitransisjonen STEPHANIE ROPENUS, PH.D. OSLO, 21ST MAY 2015 ENERGIFORSKNINGSKONFERANSEN GRØNN VEKST OG LÆRING

2 Outline 1. What is the Energiewende? Where are we now? 2. Key Insights Derived from the German Energiewende 3. (Some of the) Challenges and Opportunities 4. Outlook - Perspectives for Innovation and Growth 2

3 Outline 1. What is the Energiewende? Where are we now? 2. Key Insights Derived from the German Energiewende 3. (Some of the) Challenges and Opportunities 4. Outlook - Perspectives for Innovation and Growth 3

4 The Energiewende means fundamentally changing the power system. Gross power production in 1990, 2014 and 2050 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction of 40% by 2020 and 80% to 95% by 2050 below 1990 levels illustrative Nuclear Phase-Out Stepwise shut down of all power plants until 2022 Renewables Share in gross electricity consumption of 40-45% by 2025, 55-60% by 2035 and at least 80% by 2050 Efficiency Reduction of electricity demand by 10% by 2020 and 25% by 2050 below 2008 levels AG Energiebilanzen (1990, 2014); illustration based on current targets (2050) 4

5 German Electricity Generation: renewables comprise the largest share of the power mix in Germany s Power Generation Mix 2014 (2013 values in brackets) Source: AG Energiebilanzen

6 The Nuclear Phase-Out : The decision after Fukushima was a return to the nuclear policy decided already in

7 Renewables increased constantly over the last ten years and are to reach 40-45% in electricity by 2025 according to the Renewable Energy Act (EEG). Share of renewables in gross electricity consumption 7

8 The nuclear energy act foresees the shut down of all nuclear power plants by 2022 with renewables more than replacing their generation. Gross electricity production by nuclear and renewable sources in TWh Today Start of the Anti-Nuclear Movement Chernobyl 1. Nuclear Phase-Out Law Revision of phase-out law 2. Nuclear Phase-Out Law Fukushima AG Energiebilanzen ( ), BNetzA, own calculations ( ) 8

9 Since 2001, Germany has produced more electricity than it uses. Gross electricity generation and consumption in TWh AG Energiebilanzen (2014) 9

10 Outline 1. What is the Energiewende? Where are we now? 2. Key Insights Derived from the German Energiewende 3. (Some of the) Challenges and Opportunities 4. Outlook - Perspectives for Innovation and Growth 10

11 Key Insight: it s all about wind and solar. 11

12 Wind energy has become a mature technology with wind turbines of 2-3 MW being standard... and there is a plurality of actors Types of wind projects So-called Hofanlagen in the vicinity of buildings at the early beginnings in the 90ies. + Bürgerwindpark citizens wind farms & cooperatives. + Project developers. + Turnkey solutions/ funds and revisions (last revision: 2014) Feed-in Law Renewable Energy Act + Investors & institutional actors (banks, investment companies, ). 12

13 Renewables are an innovative technology that is now costcompetitive with fossil fuels example solar energy 13

14 Interim conclusion: Wind and PV will fundamentally change the power system a paradigm change. Wind and solar produce electricity depending on the weather situation, are for the large part (appr. 95%) connected to the distribution grid,... provide decentralized feedin of electricity supply, Source: EEX 2014, ENTSO-E 2014 but also need to contribute increasingly to system stability and ancillary services! 14

15 Outline 1. What is the Energiewende? Where are we now? 2. Key Insights Derived from the German Energiewende 3. (Some of the) Challenges and Opportunities 4. Outlook - Perspectives for Innovation and Growth 15

16 There is a broad political consensus on the goals of the Energiewende and discussions are mainly targeting its implementation. Political decisions and public opinion on Energiewende 100% 85% of MePs voted for Energiewende in Parliament in 2011 of political parties in parliament agree that there will be no lifetime extension for nuclear power plants 89% of German citizens think that the goals of the Energiewende are right 52% of German citizens think that the Energiewende is properly managed Parliament Citizens BDEW, Forsa 16

17 Challenge 1: Enhance flexibility. More renewable and volatile electricity generation necessitates more system flexibility. GW Power generation and demand in 2022* Key flexibility options Fossil power plants incl. Combined Heat and Power (CHP) Mo Tu We Th Fr Sa Su Demand Fossil Power Wind Onshore/Offshore Photovoltaic Hydro Biomass Demand Side Management (Smart) Grids Curtailment of wind and PV Storage Source: Agora Energiewende *forecast 17

18 Challenge 2: Household electricity prices have risen continuously over the last ten years. However, the increase stopped in Composition of household electricity prices BDEW 2014, BNetzA 2014, eigene Berechnungen; *Prognosis for

19 Challenge 2 (ctd.): Solar PV - Cost and Learning Experiences during recent years ( ) 7 GW 7.5 GW 7.6 GW 4.5 GW Feed-In Tariff Source: SFV (2014), AGEE (2014), Fraunhofer ISE (2014) 19

20 Challenge 3: CO 2 emissions of the electricity sector have been rising, however, they have decreased for the first time in 2014 since CO 2 -emissions in the electricity sector UBA 2014 and own calculations; *preliminary assessment 20

21 Prior to 2014, CO 2 emissions have been rising with one of the reasons being that since 2010 coal is replacing gas in the electricity mix Annual power generation mix AGEB (2014) 21

22 and this is caused by decreasing CO 2 and coal prices while gas prices remain quite high in Europe. CO 2 prices Hard coal and gas border prices Source: BAFA (2014), EEX (2014) 22

23 Challenge 4: Grid Expansion and Security of Supply System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI)* in 2012 CEER (2013) * including exceptional events 23

24 Outline 1. What is the Energiewende? Where are we now? 2. Key Insights Derived from the German Energiewende 3. (Some of the) Challenges and Opportunities 4. Outlook- Perspectives for Innovation and Growth 24

25 Renewable Energy Deployment - and Employment in Germany Gross Employment in Renewable Energy in Germany Based on BMWi study by DLR, DIW, ZSW, GWS and Prognos (2014) Which activities are included? => Employment in manufacturing, O&M, installation, and research Close to 400,000 jobs due to renewable energy deployment In 2013: 371,400 jobs In 2012: 399,800 jobs (cf. graph) 25

26 The power system and power markets will need to cope with a highly fluctuating power production from wind and solar potential for innovation Electricity generation and demand in sample weeks of February, August and November 2023* Electricity Demand Photovoltaic Fossil Power Hydro Wind Onshore/Offshore Biomass Agora Energiewende (2013) More flexibility: new business models for integration of renewables. Capacity installation in Germany and opportunities for export. In the future: also increasingly operation & maintenance. 26

27 Agora Energiewende Rosenstraße Berlin T +49 (0) F +49 (0) Thank you for your attention Questions or Comments? Please feel free to contact me: stephanie.ropenus@agora-energiewende.de Agora Energiewende is a joint initiative of the Mercator Foundation and the European Climate Foundation. 27