OBJECTIVES AND PROGRESS Main Objectives: 1. to provide policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the regi

Transcription

1 Presented by: Dr. Joni Jupesta ASEAN Centre for Energy THE 4 TH ASEAN ENERGY OUTLOOK Symposium on Sustainable Power Supply Mix in the Future, 20 November 2015, Bangkok, Thailand

2 OBJECTIVES AND PROGRESS Main Objectives: 1. to provide policy makers with an understanding of the energy trends and challenges being faced by the region up to the year 2035, 2. to strongly involve all ASEAN Member States (AMS) in the process. Progress: First Phase Second Phase February-May 2015 May-June General discussion about potential possibilities of energy demand forecasting for the AEO4 and future Outlooks 2. Scenario definition BAU scenario / Advancing Policy scenario 3. 1 st AMS Workshop, February Finalization of the BAU and APS scenarios 2. Modification of the national models and implementation of the country results 3. 2 nd AMS Workshop, May 2015 Third Phase June-September Final review of the regional models 2. Internal data review and result discussions 3. Development of analysis chapters for the AEO rd ACE Workshop, September 2015

3 TABLE OF CONTENT 1. Methodology and Scenario Definitions 2. Key Figures and Assumptions 3. ASEAN Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 4. Challenges and Key messages for ASEAN Energy Policy

4 APPROACH OF 4AEO Cooperative approach: national ASEAN officials developed country projections and included knowledge on national policies and projections Harmonized approach: The ASEAN Centre for Energy ACE and Fraunhofer guided country representatives in the development of national models Controlled approach: Fraunhofer developed a regional model to countercheck and discuss findings

5 METHODOLOGY O OG AND SCENARIOS Business as Usual Scenario (BAU): past developments continue in absence of influential modifications while still taking into consideration impacts in activity it changes Advancing Policies Scenario (APS): successful implementation of stronger policies as defined by the AMS official targets for renewable energy and energy efficiency. Both scenarios based on AMS socio-economic and policy framework assumptions. Demand (BAU) Demand (APS) Demand (Implication on target discussion) Econometric top-down as well as bottom-up models for each hams + regional model

6 MODELLING OF THE 4AEO Primary energy requirements by fuels oil, coal, natural gas, biomass, electricity Pi Primary fuels production, imports and exports Power generation Oil Refineries i and primary system fuels transformation Final energy demand by sectors Industry, transport, residential, commercial, agriculture, non energy uses Top down modeling: Brunei, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Bottom up hybrid modeling: Indonesia and Vietnam Aggregated socio economic assumptions: GDP growth, population growth, urbanization development, crude oil price development, etc. Source: 4AEO

7 KEY FIGURES GDP growth : 5.1% Remarkable sustained growth rate GDP per capita: 2,250 USD High disparity within the region population: 615 million area: 4,480,106 km² 8.5 % of world s population 56% living in rural areas coal and lignite reserves 23 bll billion tones Over 4.1 % of world s coal reserves 3.4 % of world s natural gas reserves electricity consumption: 1477 kwh/cap energy intensity: koe/ USD 05 About half of world s average Source: ASEAN, Enerdata, World Bank About half of world s average

8 KEY ASSUMPTIONS S 6.1% GDP annual average growth rate between 2013 and 2035 Strongly growing economy By 2035 ASEAN population is 762 million inhabitants (yearly average growth rate of 1% per annum) Oil prices are expected to be at 130 USD 2012 per barrel in 2035

9 TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 TPES to increase by factor 2.8 Coal share to increase (20 to 33%) APS: -13%, RE excl BM 20% Mtoe 1, Actual BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Others Renewables Biomass Source: AEO4

10 ELECTRICITY C GENERATION 3,500 3,000 2,500 Electricity strongly coal based APS: -13%, RE 23% 2,000 TWh 1,500 1, Actual BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear Hydro Geothermal Other Renewables Source: AEO4

11 INSTALLED CAPACITYC Capacities to be more than tripled! Secure investments Shares of RE Technologies (APS) 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% RE: hydro dominant but decreasing share Biomass Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal

12 ASEAN COAL PRODUCTION AND NET TRADE Mt tce per year Production BAU Net Trade BAU Production APS Net Trade APS

13 ASEAN COAL RESOURCE DEPLETION(FOR BAU AND APS) billion metric tons BAU APS

14 ndex = ENERGY INTENSITY DEVELOPMENT ASEAN Indonesia Philippines Vietnam Thailand South Korea Singapore Myanmar Malaysia 0.60 ILao PDR Cambodia China Brunei European Union North America Source: Enerdata

15 4AEO: ENERGY INTENSITY 120% 2005 leve el = 100% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Energy intensity has already started to drop in ASEAN and will further drop in both scenarios (APS roughly in line with APAEC target -40%) BAU APS 0% Source: AEO4

16 ENERGY INTENSITIES IN OTHER REGIONS China -56% North America -35% Europe -34% South Korea -11% Energy intensity development not unrealistic compared to other regions. Taking China an even stronger decrease is feasible ASEAN +8% ASEAN 4AEO BAU -33% Source: Enerdata, 4AEO ASEAN 4AEO APS -41%

17 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION O 1,200 1, Mtoe Actual BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS BAU APS Industry Transportation Residential Commercial Others Non energy use Source: AEO4

18 4AEO: CHALLENGES (Local and global) Environment: growth in use of coal Supply security: intensive use of gas/oil/coal reserves. Rising imports Strongly rising electricity demand as a limitation to economic growth

19 4AEO: KEY MESSAGES S Demand challenge: Export ratios coal/gas/oil / less favourable, supply security problems, resource depletion; economic and environmental impacts Major indicators (electricity/energy/co 2 per capita) approaching world average (2035: 5 tonnes CO 2 per capita, electricity about 4000 kwh/capita). Increasing international pressure BAU falls well short to achieve APAEC energy efficiency target, however: APS comes close to EE target Energy intensity started to decrease (economic growth, EE policies) First (fragmented) national policies have led to RE penetration Vast untapped RE/EE potential by Opportunity for high local manufacturing shares and competitive electricity generation Enhancing national EE/RES policies through mutual policy learning/coordination, regional market integration and interconnections helps preventing system inefficiencies and reduce system costs

20 THANK YOU This work is a joint output of the ASEAN Centre of Energy (ACE) with the National Working Group by 10 ASEAN Member States under directives of Regional Energy Policy and Planning Sub-Sector Network (REPP-SSN), with support of Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) through the Renewable Energy Support Programme for ASEAN (ASEAN- RESP), and expert consultancy with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (FhG ISI). Contact : report@tky.ieej.or.jp