Food!Security!in! Jordan

Transcription

1 !Drought!Policy!and!! Food!Security!in! Jordan Anwar!Ba8ikhi!! HMNDP! 13!March,!20130

2 Percent!Total!Number!of!People! Affected!by!Drought!from!1900!to!2004! by!contenant!g (Below!et!al.,!2007)G

3 Proportional!impact!of!drought!to! other!hazards,!in!terms!of!people! affected!in!syria!(1980p2009)g From!2007!to!2010,!severe!drought!in!Jordan! and!syria!had!the!worst!recorded!economic! impact!in!many!decades.!g

4 Hashemite!Kingdom!of!Jordan!Profile! and!basic!indicatorsg Location: 80 km to the east of the Mediterranean Sea, Coordinates: N and E, Area: Km 2 Population: 6,27 (2011) Population growth rate: 2.2% ( ), More than 1/3 of the population lives in Amman, 88% of the total population lives in less than 20% of the area, Per capita income: US $ 2700 (2006), Per capita water consumption: 145 cu.m./year Desert is the prevalent ecosystem covering over 80% of the country, Annual precipitation varies from 30 mm in the desert to 600 mm in the North West highlands, has a typical Mediterranean short, rainy winter and long dry summer.

5 Hashemite!Kingdom!of!Jordan!Profile! and!basic!indicators!(cont d)g Used water in 2010 was 750 mm 3 Generated wastewater in 2010 was 244 mm 3 Water demand & supply in 2005 is1525 and 945 MCM with deficit = 580 MCM

6 AgroPecological!Zones!in!JordanG

7 Long-term average annual precipitation is 8,300 MCM of which an average of 92.5% (63% in the highlands to around 99% in the eastern desert) is lost by evaporation (MWI, 2003), Evaporation range mm/a (National Water master Plan, Average Amount Of Precipitation (mm/yr) Water Use in Jordan ( ) 13% 4% 2% 1% 80% mm mm mm mm mm MCM Municipal Industrial Irrigation Livestock Total (MCM) Year

8 G! Water Supply for Drinking and other Municipal Purposes,

9 Water!Supply!in!Jordan!for! Different!Sectors!in!2008G (Tarawneh, 2009)

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11 Surface!Water!Budget(Infiltration!,I,!floods! F,!evaporation!,E,!and!total!rainfall!,TR)!for! 2010/2011!Season!and!the!Long!!Term! Average!1937!!2011*G period / / IG IG FG FG EG EG TRG %!0 MCM0 %0 MCM0 %0 MCM0 MCM *Ministry of Water and Irrigation

12 Life!Expectancy!&!Population! Growth!Rate!in!JordanG 1961G 1990G 1997G 2006G 2007G Till! nowg Life!expectancy Population! growth!

13 Population Growth ( ) Population Projections Million Capita Population

14 SelfPSufficiency!Ratio!(SSR)!of! Food!Items,!2011!in!JordanG

15 Jordan!Gross!Domestic!ProductG Agriculture!direct!and!indirect!contribution!to!GDP!is! 4.5%!and!exceeds!29%,!respectively.!It!contributes!to! 12.1%!of!total!exports!and!the!fruits!and!vegetables! and!citrus!amounts!to!79%!of!total!agricultural! production!in!jordan.!(central!bank!of!jordan,!2000).! h8p:// G G G G G G G G Economic Indicators GDP Per Capita (JD) Agriculture (%GDP)

16 Domestic!Imports!and!Exports!in!Jordan! 2007P2011G YearG ImportsG Billions!JDG ExportsG Billions!JDG *1 Euro = JD, 1 Swiss Franc = JD

17 AP1PDrought!Events!in!the!RegionG 1- Egyptian Empire that collapsed over 4,000 years ago might be attributed to drought, 2- Syria experienced four severe droughts leaving 2-3 million people in extreme poverty, and wiped out 80-85% of herders livestock, 3- The need to irrigate crops due to increasing food prices may lead to the diversion of rivers placing increasing pressure on downstream populations.

18 AP2PDrought!Events!in!the!Region!0 4- Half of the Moroccan sheep flock died due to drought in 1945, and in the drought, 25% of the cattle and 39% of the sheep either died or were sold prematurely on a glutted market (Iovanna 1986), 5- Moroccan drought in 1995, production fell to 17% of that in the good 1994 season, (Laamari and El-Moored 1998), 6- In Syria, 3 million sheep (about 25 percent of the flocks) had to be slaughtered during drought because of a shortage of feed,

19 BP1PCases!of!Drought!in! JordanG 1- In a major drought between 1958 and 1962, at least 70 percent of the then considerable camel herd died, leading to a virtual demise of camels as an economic element in livestock production there, 2- Severe drought cut rainfall in by up to 70 percent_ left the Jordan facing its worst cereal harvests in more than 40 years (FAO,1999),

20 BP2PCases!of!Drought!in! Jordan!G 3P!200!springs!are!completely!dried!and!850!springs!show! decrease!in!their!discharge,g 4P!!Drop!of!1!meter/year!in!groundwater!level!during!the! last!30!years,!g 5P!!Decreasing!magnitude!of!base!flow!and!flood!flow!of! the!main!wadis!(valleys),!g 6P!!!Main!dams!store!half!of!its!capacity!in!the!last!20! years.!!!!!!!g

21 CP1PClimate!Change!&!Drought!G 1- Overall, climate change could result in a variety of impacts on agriculture. Some of these effects are biophysical, some are ecological, and some are economic, including: a- A shift in climate and agricultural zones towards the poles. b- Changes in production patterns due to higher temperatures, c- A boost in agricultural productivity due to increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, d- Changing precipitation patterns, e- Increased vulnerability of the landless and the poor,

22 CP2PClimate!Change!&! Drought!G 2- Direct impacts of climate change over the next years will be on agriculture and food systems. Climate change will diversely affect food security and small farmers in poor countries. 3- Desertification trends are worsening with the impacts of climate variability, coupled with ineffective macroeconomic policies, which have been unable to stimulate appropriate investments in groundwater conservation, natural resource management and agricultural infrastructure.

23 CP3PClimate!Change!&! Drought!G 5- Only through increased investment in the agriculture sector, productivity can be improved and food security can be achieved. 6- In 2008, the food crises in Jordan, Morocco, Niger and Yemen lead to social unrest and riots which adversely impact political and economic stability and affecting investment and economic growth.

24 DP1PDrought!Policy!&! Management!in!JordanG 1- Jordan has no clear policy that might have led to a sustainable solution to the water problem giving the increasing constraints on the resources. 2- Due to externalities, Government has focused on income growth objectives rather than policy objectives, income distribution, and environmental concerns (Al- Jayyousi, 1995). 3- To increases agriculture production and meet the demand of a growing population, development of water resources has been limited during the past 3 decades to: a- building hydraulic structures in the public sector, b- exploiting of groundwater in the private,

25 DP2PDrought!Policy!and!!!!!!!!!!!!Management!in!JordanG 4- Governments throughout the region introduced extensive drought-management policies during recent decades. 5- Types of interventions (longer-term programs rather than as simply ad-hoc relief): a- Feed subsidies, has been used widely in the West Asia and North Africa region (e.g., barley, 50% in Morocco and 32% in Tunisia); and b- Restocking programs, become popular in many parts of Sub-Saharan Africa. These interventions focus on providing supplementary feeds to safeguard livestock, with the predominant expenditure going for subsidies toward the costs and distribution of concentrates and other feeds. The body of evidence on their impacts is growing.

26 DP3PDrought!Policy!&! Management!in!Jordan!G 6- Feed imports are tranquil in drought years, while imports of livestock and their products are constrained to maintain domestic prices, 7- Practicing livestock bank: Providing better balance between fodder availability and livestock numbers throughout the drought cycle and stabilize livestock prices (Blench and Marriage,1998). This can be done by purchasing animals at reasonable price during the drought, when fodder is scarce, then reselling them back to herders at the same or slightly higher price once drought recovery begins.

27 EP1PImproved!Drought!ManagementG 1- Providing farmers and herders with the means to better manage drought risks themselves, with minimal government intervention. a- Rainfall insurance: Agricultural insurance has appealed to policymakers as a tool of choice for helping farmers and agricultural banks to manage drought (billions of dollars of public money is spent each year on agricultural insurance around the world), b- Early-warning forecasts of drought:to avoid economic costs connected with the misallocation of resources that arise because farmers, herders, and other decision makers have to obligate resources each year before key rainfall outcomes are known.

28 EP2PImproved!Drought! Management!G 2- Jordan, Syria and Yemen are among the most water stressed countries in the world with a low percentage of arable land, a- They are experiencing poverty across their territories (poverty is most severe in rural non-diversified economies), b- Host migrants, refugees and asylum-seekers a key contributor to the experience of severe poverty, c- Reduced agricultural productivity across these countries had a significantly negative impact on food security, health and human development in the past decade,

29 EP3PImproved!Drought! Management!G 3- Jordan s southern highlands represent the country s poorest mainly farmers and women where communities are severely affected by cumulative impacts from extensive weather related disasters, such as flash flood and drought (Jordan Rural Poverty Fact Sheet - International Fund for Agricultural Development, 2010 ), 4- The findings gained from these studies was used in developing the Jordan national drought strategy,

30 EP4PImproved!Drought! Management!G 5- Government of Jordan requested FAO technical assistance in 2005 for elaborating a national strategy for drought which let to forming a project National Steering Committee was formed providing a funds for one senior technical specialist on drought management to serve as the team leader, 6- Water resources/irrigation management specialist, and six national consultants conducted studies on: a- a drought early warning system; b- drought data analysis and information system management; c- drought risk assessment and identification of the economic, environmental; d- social impacts of the drought; e- water resources policies and programs; and f- water resources and irrigation system management.

31 FP1PRecommendationsG 1- Investments on the development of new water resources (supply management) focusing on water saving strategies, as operational policies of water resources systems rely on the available, 2- Most of instrumental records of precipitation or streamflow are relatively short (started in the 1940s or 1950s ) for the purpose of characterizing extreme droughts which may not reflect consistent information about the random nature of extreme droughts due to the limited number of extreme events that can be observed (Woodhouse, 2001, and Toucan et al., 1999),

32 FP2PRecommendations!G 3- Develop adaptation planning and promote environmental awareness campaign to deal with prolonged weather events, 4- The following policy recommendations have been drafted to enable Jordan and other drought vulnerable countries to undertake focused actions that address risk-poverty interactions at their respective national and governorate levels: a- Adopt and implement sustainable pro-poor growth policies by integrating disaster risk reduction measures into national and sectoral plans with a focus on infrastructure, agriculture, livelihoods and employment generation. b- As part of the national social development policy and plans, institute social safety mechanisms for highly vulnerable populations with a specific focus on women headed households, the aged, and persons with disability.

33 FP3PRecommendations!G 5- Promote integrated drought/climate monitoring in parallel with a comprehensive decision support system, 6- Integrate spatial scales drought planning with stakeholder participation to move society from drought vulnerability to drought resilience, 7- National policies should promote uptake of modern inputs to increase agricultural productivity/production, 8- It should be recognized that a drought policy or plan is only as good as the information and ideas that go into its creation. So, care should be taken in choosing the best alternatives possible for gathering information and feedback during the planning process.

34 Thank You For your Kind Attention