'Everyone to the Plate: Sustainable Food Production Must be an Inclusive Solution. Shawn Archibeque. World Population

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1 Population, millions of persons 6/1/2015 'Everyone to the Plate: Sustainable Food Production Must be an Inclusive Solution Shawn Archibeque Department of Animal Sciences World Population : 1 Billion 1927: 2 Billion 1960: 3 Billion 1975: 4 Billion 1987: 5 Billion 1999: 6 Billion 2011: 7 Billion 2025: 8 Billion 2045: 9 Billion 0 10,000 BC Year 2050 Source: US Census Bureau 1

2 Population, millions of persons 6/1/2015 World Population : 1 Billion 1927: 2 Billion 1960: 3 Billion 1975: 4 Billion 1987: 5 Billion 1999: 6 Billion 2011: 7 Billion 2025: 8 Billion 2045: 9 Billion 0 10,000 BC Year 2050 Source: US Census Bureau SUSTAINABILITY = ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT? No. Economics and social issues must also be considered. 2

3 Sustainability a wicked problem Such a problem has the essential characteristic that it is not solvable; it can only be managed. No clear definition of the problem No right or wrong rather better or worse Stakeholders have different ways of looking at the problem Causes and effects within the system are complex, unknown and/or highly uncertain Peterson, 2013 Economic Long-term business viability, stewardship of natural resources, and responsibility to community, family, animals Environment Social 3

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5 Temperature and CO 2 concentration Temperature and CO 2 concentration 5

6 Current CO 2 concentration higher than past 650,000 years Source: Global Warming Potential Carbon Dioxide CO 2 1 Methane CH 4 28 Nitrous oxide N 2 O 265 6

7 Livestock s Long Shadow The Livestock sector is a major player, responsible for 18% of GHG emissions measured in CO 2 e. This is a higher share than transport (FAO 2006) Used Life Cycle Assessment 7

8 Footprint measured in metric tons of CO 2 e* 6/1/2015 U.S. dairy carbon footprint Life cycle assessment 59% 6% electricity 35% manure methane 21% 12% fuel use 24% fertilizer 64% soil N 2 O 59% enteric methane 7% 2% refrigerant 23% fuel 75% electricity 7% 35% container formation 65% raw material 3% 100% Diesel 3% 28% refrigerant 72% energy Crop Production Milk Production Processing Packaging Transport/ Distribution Retail Enteric methane CH 4 Photo Courtesy of Oklahoma State University 8

9 Livestock s Long Shadow Land use change = 35.4% of GHG emissions Desertification = 1.4% Deforestation = 34% Source: Savory Institute 9

10 Land degradation in drylands Current forest cover National boundaries Net loss of forest Net gain of forest Figure 8 Forest transition and land degradation in dry lands (FAO, 2006). 10

11 Livestock units per square km National boundaries >2.5 Figure 4 Global estimates of aggregate distribution of pigs, poultry, cattle, and small ruminants (FAO, 2006). Clearing the air Provided for non-commercial research and educational use only. Not for reproduction, distribution or commercial use. This chapter was originally published in the book Advances in Agronomy, Vol. 103, published by Elsevier, and the attached copy is provided by Elsevier for the author's benefit and for the benefit of the author's institution, for non-commercial research and educational use including without limitation use in instruction at your institution, sending it to specific colleagues who know you, and providing a copy to your institution s administrator. All other uses, reproduction and distribution, including without limitation commercial reprints, selling or licensing copies or access, or posting on open internet sites, your personal or institution s website or repository, are prohibited. For exceptions, permission may be sought for such through Elsevier's permissions site at: LLS is a global assessment, should not be applied regionally US: 3.4% of GHG emissions Paraguay: ~50% Ethiopia: ~90% From: Maurice E. Pitesky, Kimberly R. Stackhouse, and Frank M. Mitloehner, Clearing the Air: Livestock s Contribution to Climate Change. In Donald Sparks, editor: Advances in Agronomy, Vol. 103, Burlington: Academic Press, 2009, pp ISBN: Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. Academic Press. Transport was not analyzed with LCA method 11

12 New UN FAO report 14.5% of global anthropogenic GHG Regions with more modern, intensive production systems have lower GHG emissions per unit of beef What is missing from the debate? -Context. Less than 1% of solar energy is captured by photosynthesis 12

13 Cellulose Most abundant organic compound on the planet yet, humans cannot digest it. 13

14 Beef Production, billions of lbs Beef Production, billions of lbs 6/1/2015 US Beef production Year Beef production and cow inventory Produce same amount of beef with 30% fewer animals Year 14

15 Historical context -16% Production efficiency: More with less -18% -33% -12% -19% -30% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Capper, 2011 JAS 89: Production efficiency considerations Reproductive efficiency Animal health Genetics Nutrition Growth promoting technologies Photo Courtesy of Oklahoma State University 15

16 Food insecurity - Global in 8 people world-wide were suffering from chronic hunger 842 million people Food security has national security implications 16

17 Food insecurity - US Ruminant Digestion A. Herbivores Largest % of herbivores B. Use the world s largest CHO source for energy C. Evolution Available food Safety 17

18 The Ruminant Digestive System Sheep Food Supply 75% Water 12% Polar caps, swamps, deserts, very high mountains 10% 3% Too cold, wet, rocky, steep, dry, paved, etc. Tillable 18

19 Animal Ag & The World Increase in human population Socio-economic status and meat consumption Animal Ag and competition with humans Alternative feeds/water Edible feeds not fit for humans Feed on non-arable lands What does it mean? In ruminants, microbial fermentation precedes enzymatic digestion and intestinal absorption Non-competitive feeds Extensive use of forages Byproducts 19

20 Long History of Waste Use Desert ruminants Pastoral societies Potato Famine Commercial Food Yellow Grease Brewers Grains Bakery Waste Etc. U.S. Cattle Industry Approximately 33% of beef cattle population enters a feedlot Enter at 314 kg Exit at 573 kg (45% of mass in feedlot) Very visible Concentration of nutrients Odor, N, and P 20

21 Challenges Nutritional needs of cattle Ethanol production Reduced corn availability Increased competition for other feeds Distillers grains Nutrient balance/waste production Potential Low- moderate quality forages Distillers grains supplements Improve nutrient availability for forage-fed ruminants Determine optimum levels of distillers grains to optimize production Utilize forages to improve manure value N:P ratio 21

22 Conclusions We have to use a variety of methods to produce food for future generations Balance of dietary plans Focus will be on efficient nutrient use Current methodologies may change Sustainability is a complex issue and not as clear cut as many believe Questions? 22