Water Users & Southern Arizona

Transcription

1 Water Users & Southern Arizona March 6, 2015

2 SOUTHERN ARIZONA WATER USERS

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4 Southern Arizona Water Users Association Water Experts & Professionals serving Southern Arizona Discuss & Analyze Issues One Voice on Water Issues for Southern Arizona

5 When will Arizona run out of water?

6 Drought in California Shortage on the Colorado River 'Megadrought Intensity: - Abnormally Dry - Moderate Drought - Severe Drought - Extreme Drought - Exceptional Drought

7 Arizona & Water Planned & Invested Leader in the Nation in Water Management

8 Water Successes in Arizona - Central Arizona Project 1980 Groundwater Management Act Assured Water Supply Rules Arizona Water Banking Authority

9 Southern Arizona is a Leader Collaboration Key to Success

10 Over 30 years of Using Recycled Water Recycled Water Managed Effluent Recharge Project Less Water Leaving TAMA Improvements at Tres Rios Other Regional Efforts - Sahuarita and Marana Metro Water & CMID

11 CAP Utilization

12 Increasing Renewable Supply Deliveries Oro Valley 4,000 AF/y Metro & NW +4,000 AF/y Pascua Yaqui 500 AF/y Tucson 100,000 AF/y Vail Water 1,857 AF/y Green Valley 2,858 AF/y

13 Inter-AMA Firming CAP 150 AF Phoenix Area CAP 150 AF Tucson Area City of Phoenix CAP Order 150 AF Stored in Tucson Recharge 150 AF at AVRP = AF Credits

14 Inter-AMA Firming CAP 12,000 AF CAP AF by Exchange Phoenix Area CAP 11, AF Tucson Area Metro CAP Order 12,000 AF Recovery by Metro of City of Phoenix AF credits at AVRP by Exchange

15 Living with Less Water

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17 New Normal Customers using less water, Drought & Climate Change Coming Deficit between Supply and Demand 900,000 to 2,300,000 acre-feet in 20 to 100 years Aging Infrastructure Higher Power Costs Less Revenue to Meet Utility Expenses

18 Solutions = $$$$ Infrastructure & Water Resources Can t Rely on Federal $$ State investment Local investment Public / Private Partnership

19 Plan & Invest in Water = Security for State & Economy Water Fuels Our Economy

20 Summary To date, we have achieved much from planning and investing in our water Southern Arizona is best positioned to deal with the New Normal Challenges are in front of us...

21 Summary We will run out of water. when we fail to actively plan and invest in our water resources and infrastructure

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23 Arizona Department of Water Resources Agency Update Water Issues & Southern Arizona Forum Southern Arizona Water Users Association March 6, 2015 Thomas Buschatzke, Director Arizona Department of Water Resources

24 300 Arizona Water Use, Population Arizona s and Water Economic Management Growth ( ) Success $ Billion Year Adjusted Gross Domestic Income Population Water Use (Acre-Feet) Total Water Use (in million acre-feet) Population (in millions) Gross Domestic Income (in billions) maf 1.1 $ maf 6.58 $ Change from % 472% 1752%

25 Actions that Have Contributed to Arizona s Water Management Success Salt River Project Colorado River Compact Central Arizona Project Assured and Adequate Water Supply Program Underground Storage and Recovery Program & Arizona Water Banking Authority 8.9 MAF stored for future use Mandatory Water Conservation Requirements Within the five Active Management Areas <10% water lost or unaccounted for water Best Management Practices Drought Preparedness Plan Requirements

26 Challenges Moving Forward Short-term Challenges Shortage on the Colorado River System is likely 21% Probability in % Probability in 2017 Lower Basin Annual Deficit Water Resources in rural areas of the state are more stressed Primary water source is groundwater Lack of groundwater regulation Willcox area San Simon Valley Sub-basin Long-term Challenges Growing statewide imbalance between existing water supplies and demand projected in the next 25 years Driving Forces 15 year ongoing drought Growth in population and increased water demand

27 Probabilities of Lower Basin Shortage Probability of any level of shortage (Mead 1,075 ft.) st level shortage (Mead 1, and 1,050 ft) 2 nd level shortage (Mead <1, and 1,025 ft) 3 rd level shortage (Mead <1,025) From Bureau of Reclamation January 2015 CRSS modeling.

28 Lower Basin Shortage Tiers and Volumes 2017 Level 1 Shortage = 320 KAF Other Excess (157 KAF) Ag Pool (300 KAF) Excess P4 (56KAF) P1-P MAF On-River 1.2 MAF NIA (225 KAF) M&I and Indian (788 KAF) P3 (68.4 KAF) CAP 1.6 MAF Long Term Entitlements CAP P4 Arizona Priorities 2.8 MAF Total

29 Arizona s Efforts to Address Challenges on the Colorado River - Drought Response Discussions ADWR Director Serves as Arizona s Principal on matters relating to the Colorado River (A.R.S (D)) Goal of discussions: Conserve MAF in Lake Mead over the next 5 years Reduce the risks of Lake Mead falling below 1000 elevation Discussions between: Basin States Department of the Interior Other contract holders Memorandum of Understanding CAP = 345,000 AF MWD = 300,000 AF SNWA = 45,000 AF BOR = 50,000 AF

30 Arizona s Efforts to Address Long-term Challenges Strategic Vision for Water Supply Sustainability Purpose: Identify strategies to help address future water needs and provide a stable economy for the future. Findings: Projected imbalance between 900,000 and 3.2 MAF over the next 25 to 100 years. Strategic Priorities Identified: Resolution of Indian and Non-Indian Water Rights Claims Watershed/Forest Management Weather Modification Reclaimed Water Reuse Enhanced Stormwater Recharge Water Management Importation of New Water Supplies

31 Strategic Vision Progress to Date Released in January 2014 Statewide tour- roughly fifty presentations Governor s Council on Water Supply Sustainability Executive Order (November 4, 2014) Tasked with identifying priorities for implementation of the Action Items and Strategic Priorities identified in Strategic Vision Initial Report submitted December 31, 2014 ASU Morrison Institute for Public Policy Kyl Center on Water Policy Short-term Expedite completing of adjudication Funding ADWR Initiate dialog to plan for future water augmentation projects Medium-term Enhance existing water management strategies Long-term Augmentation

32 A Glimpse of the Future Addressing Colorado River issues will continue to consume significant ADWR resources for the foreseeable future. Colorado River shortage will limit water banking opportunities. Transition from era of storage to one of recovery Farming in Central Arizona will be impacted Rural Arizona needs attention ADWR will continue to work with local water users to develop effective groundwater management solutions for individual areas.

33 Questions? Thomas Buschatzke, Director Phone:

34 Southern Arizona Water Utilities Association David Modeer General Manager March 6, 2015

35 Central Arizona Project ARIZONA 336-mile aqueduct stretches from Lake Havasu to Tucson 14 pumping plants lift water nearly 3,000 feet 8 siphons, 3 tunnels Lake Pleasant/New Waddell Dam Annually delivers approx. 520 billion gallons (1.6 mill acrefeet) Delivery of Colorado River water began in 1985 in Maricopa County Construction complete in 1993

36 Importance of NGS Constructed in the early 1970s on the Navajo Reservation near Page, AZ, to provide power to the CAP as an alternative to two additional dams in the vicinity of the Grand Canyon 3 coal-fired units, total net output of 2,250 megawatts (MW) Operated by the Salt River Project (SRP) on behalf of six participants Provides 95% of power required by CAP Surplus power from the BOR s share of NGS is sold to help fund CAP repayment, which in turn funds Indian water rights settlements LADWP 21.2% NV Energy 11.3% SRP 21.7% TEP 7.5% APS 14.0% USBR (CAP) 24.3%

37 Benefits to CAP of TWG Agreement EPA released its final rule in July 2014 Ensures the viability of NGS to 2044, providing certainty that stable and reliable power supplies are available for decades Significantly delays the cost of SCR, potentially until 2030 Reduction in CO2 emissions meets the EPA's proposed carbon rule for NGS Preserves CAP's ability to fund Arizona's repayment obligation for CAP construction through the sale of surplus NGS power

38 CAP and the Economy CAP provides water to 80% of the State s population, approximately 5.4 million people. Service area of Maricopa, Pinal and Pima counties encompasses 24,000 square miles of land, or 20% of the State. CAP serves water to municipalities, tribes, industrial and agricultural users (350,000 acres), and is the largest supplier of renewable water supplies in the State. CAP is also the largest single-end user of power in Arizona.

39 ASU Study on CAP Economic Impact ASU study shows CAP plays a significant role in Arizona s overall economy

40 Colorado River Status Lake Mead is at elevation 1086 feet = 41% capacity 2015 no shortage % probability % probability CAP is working on a reservoir protection plan with other Lower Basin water users and taking steps to protect Lake Mead (MOU is the first step)

41 Colorado River Shortage Lake Mead elevations have been declining for past 15 years The cause? - 15-years of drought - Overallocation or structural deficit

42 Tier 1 Shortage

43 Drought Response Plan Colorado River water and power users share risk CAP and ADWR are working with Basin States and Reclamation to execute a Drought Response and Sustainability Plan MOU = voluntary commitment to store 745kaf in Lake Mead from Ongoing efforts Expand weather modification and tamarisk removal Pilot System Conservation Agreement Yuma Desalting Plant pilot run Innovative Conservation Program grants Long-term augmentation studies

44 CAP Funding Sources Water delivery charges (60% of CAP s budget) M&I Capital charges - applied exclusively to repayment Power Basin and Development Fund revenues (10% of budget) - applied exclusively to repayment 10-cent ad valorem tax 4-cent ad valorem tax Interest income, reimbursements and other misc. revenues CAP is also authorized to issue general obligation and revenue bonds, but does not currently have any bonds outstanding

45 4-Cent Tax

46 What does this cost the home owner? $100,000 value = $4.00 per year $200,000 value = $8.00 per year $400,000 value = $16.00 per year

47 Questions?

48 Panel Discussion

49 Thank you for attending!